Seth Stohs

One of the greatest terms among baseball fans is “Pitchers and Catchers Report.” On Sunday, the Twins' pitchers and catchers (on the 40 man roster, or those who received a spring training invitation) officially reported to Hammond Stadium, and on Monday they will practice together for the first time. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In January, we reviewed the catchers, the first basemen, third basemen, middle infielders and outfielders in the Minnesota Twins organization. In this article, I’ll quickly mention the starting pitchers through the Twins' system. Starting pitching has been the Twins biggest issue in recent years. The Twins were aggressive this offseason in the free agent market. Last offseason, they actively pursued a couple of big arms via the trade market. And in last year’s draft they targeted another big arm. The Big Leaguers The Twins were very aggressive in the free agent market this offseason. Before the end of Thanksgiving weekend, they had agreed to terms with free agents Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes. Before Christmas, they re-signed Mike Pelfrey. Last year’s other free agent acquisition, Kevin Correia, returns in 2014 after a solid 2013. Those four will, assuming health, make up 80-percent of the opening day starting pitching staff. So, who will be the fifth starter? That’s one of the biggest questions as spring training begins. There are three possibilities who are out of options. They are Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Samuel Deduno. All three have shown a measure of success in their careers. Also in the fifth starter mix will be righty Kyle Gibson who debuted halfway through the 2013 season. Though he struggled, he is potentially still a #2/3 starter. Finally, let’s not forget that Alex Meyer and Trevor May will certainly get long looks during spring training. There are others, new to the organization, who will also likely receive long looks. Lefties Kris Johnson and recently-claimed Brooks Raley pitched in the big leagues in 2014. Lefty Sean Gilmartin came to the Twins in exchange for Ryan Doumit. Another lefty, Logan Darnell, was added to the 40 man roster last fall, which may mean his time in big league camp will be limited. However, he is certainly one to watch at Rochester in 2014. 2013 Draft Picks As they did in 2012, the Minnesota Twins prioritized pitching in the 2013 draft. With the fourth overall pick, the Twins were thrilled to select Texas prep Kohl Stewart. They were then able to give him about four million reasons to forgo a football scholarship at Texas A&M. Another highly-regarded high school pitcher the Twins drafted was Stephen Gonsalves. The Twins got him in the fourth round. The two dominated in the GCL and also pitched well in short stints in Elizabethton. In the 2nd round, the Twins selected a college arm, Ryan Eades, from Louisiana State University. The Boras client didn’t pitch well out of the Elizabethton bullpen last year, after a long college season, but he could move very quickly in 2014. 6-10 righty Aaron Slegers helped lead the Indiana Hoosiers to the College World Series during which the Twins took him in the 5th round. As they did in 2012, the Twins drafted some pitchers with strong arms who had pitched out of the bullpen. Some of them will be given an opportunity to start in 2014. Brian Gilbert and Ethan Mildren are two to watch. Prospect Rankings Times have certainly changed from five years ago when the Twins had few highly-regarded prospects, and most of those were hitters. In my Top 10 Twins prospect lists, I have four pitching prospects who have a ceiling of “upper-half of the rotation starter.” In the recently-completed Twins Daily Top Ten Twins' Prospect List, there are five starting pitchers. Alex Meyer (3) and Kohl Stewart (4) are the two Twins" pitching prospects for whom the descriptor “Ace” is a legitimate possibility based on their current projections. As we know, Meyer has consistently pitched between 95 and 98 and has touched 99 and even 100 on several occasions. Stewart has only been a part-time pitcher because of his football background in Texas, and he has already been clocked as high as 97. Both have big-league secondary pitches to go with their heat. JO Berrios was ranked #6 on Twins Daily’s list and #7 on my list. He’s got better than average control and throws hard with good secondary pitches. He had his ups and downs in 2013 with Cedar Rapids, but he was one of the youngest pitchers in the league. (Berrios did a Q&A for Twins Daily – English version, Spanish version). Speaking of young, Lewis Thorpe burst on the scene in 2014. The 17 year old gained size and velocity and got on everyone’s radar when he started getting clocked at 95. He also shows impeccable control and has more room to grow. Trevor May came in at #10 in the Twins Daily prospect rankings (I ranked him #12). He (along with Meyer and Tim Atherton) were the three Twins minor league starters who struck out more than a batter per inning. I had Steven Gonsalves at #13. Ryan Eades ranked #18 for me, with Jorge Felix following at #19. Taylor Rogers was my choice for Twins Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year after a tremendous season at Ft. Myers. He is also ranked as my #21 prospect. Luke Bard, despite missing most of the season, was my #23 choice. Miguel Sulbaran, who came to the Twins from the Dodgers in the Drew Butera trade, is my choice for #24. DJ Baxendale, who dominated in Ft. Myers the first two months of the season before struggling more in New Britain, was the Twins 10th round pick in 2012 out of Arkansas and my choice for #25 prospect. Lefty Brett Lee had a solid season in Cedar Rapids and ranks #27. Hard-throwing youngster Fernando Romero comes in at #28. Finally, another hard-thrower from the rookie leagues, Yorman Landa, ranks 30th. So, in all, 15 of my Top 30 are currently starting pitchers. Romero and Landa both have high potentials, pointing to how solid the Twins pitching depth is. Roster Projections In each installment, I have been making my roster projections. There could still be additional signings, and injuries will affect all this. That’s why it is important to have more than just five starters at each level. There are also always players put on the disabled list. This just gives an idea of who could be at each affiliate at the start of the season. Minnesota: Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, Sam Deduno, Rochester: Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Kris Johnson, Brooks Raley, Logan Darnell, Pat Dean New Britain: Sean Gilmartin, Alex Meyer, DJ Baxendale, Matt Summers, Taylor Rogers, Alex Wimmers, BJ Hermsen, Mark Hamburger (following suspension) Fort Myers: Jason Wheeler, Tyler Duffey, Tim Shibuya, Ryan Eades, Miguel Sulburan, Brett Lee, Mason Melotakis, JO Berrios Cedar Rapids: Jorge Felix, Yorman Landa, Hudson Boyd, Aaron Slegers, Randy Rosario, Brian Gilbert, Ethan Mildren Extended Spring Training: Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Lewis Thorpe, Fernando Romero, Miguel Gonzalez Feel free to discuss the players and the roster.

Miguel Sano would be the #1 prospect, arguably, in about 27 of the 30 major league organizations, at least according to Baseball America. In the Minnesota Twins organization, he ranks a solid #2. I bet you can guess who will be named the Twins Daily #1 Twins Prospect tomorrow. It’s been a long time since the Twins have had a prospect with the kind of power that Miguel Sano has. He also has a jovial personality and that combination means he has a chance to be a popular superstar. What’s to Like? A lot! First and foremost is the immense power of Miguel Sano.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In 2012, in Beloit, Sano hit 30 home runs. Last year, he moved up to Ft. Myers where he hit 16 home runs in 56 games before adding another 19 homers in AA New Britain… as a 20 year old! Remember that the Midwest League and especially the Florida State League are considered fairly extreme pitcher-friendly leagues. What is his power potential? Sano is 6'-4" and weighed in at 250 pounds at his Twins Fest physical, and he may still be growing. As you recall from the interview with him at Twins Fest, when I asked him if his home run goal for 2014 was going to be 40 (after 30 and 35, respectively, in the past two seasons), he said, “Maybe 45, maybe 50. More games… Maybe 55. I’m working hard, getting good pitches. That’s it.” That is another thing to like about Miguel Sano. Yes, he will strike out, but his strike zone judgment has greatly improved. After walking just 6.2% of the time in the GCL and 7.8% at Elizabethton, Sano walked 14.5% of the time in Beloit. Last year, he walked about 12% of the time in Ft. Myers and then 13% in New Britain. The key has been his ability to lay off of those tough sliders down and away. With more experience, his ability to get his pitch should continue to improve. Another area of great improvement for Sano came on the defensive side of the game. 2012 was his first season when he was a full-time third baseman. He committed 42 errors and posted an 88.4% fielding percentage. Of course, I always like to point out that nearly 30 of those errors came in the first half of the season. In 2012, he committed a combined 23 errors at the hot corner and his fielding percentage jumped to 93.2% There is still work to be done, but reports say he greatly improved his range. He is able to play a little deeper because he has such a strong arm. He also has some of the intangibles for greatness. Sano has great confidence and he wants to be great, not just very good. He wants to lead the league in home runs and RBI. He can come across as brash at times. He has always had a lot of personality. Earlier in his career, some say he lacked maturity. Now, most say he is becoming more of a leader. He has a lot of fun both playing the game and in the clubhouse. His English has also come a long way over the last couple years. What’s not to like? As mentioned above, he still has work to do at third base. He will make great plays and then stumble on some more routine plays. Often that is more of a concentration thing. So, he needs to become more consistent. When Miguel Sano puts the ball in play, generally good things happen because he is so powerful. However, putting the ball in play is still a concern. Sano struck out in 26.7% of his GCL plate appearances, and then 26.3% at Elizabethton. In Beloit in 2012, he struck out 26.0%. In his 56 games with Ft. Myers a year ago, he struck out 25.1% of the time. However, when he moved up to New Britain, he struck out 29.3% of the time. For for a glimpse of what that means: in 2006, Brandon Wood struck out in 28.5% of his plate appearances at AA. So, although Sano has put up incredible power numbers, dismissing his strikeout rate might be a little naïve and premature. Remember that I put Sano’s confidence in the positive category? I believe a player need to be confident, bordering on arrogant, to become a truly great player. However, there is a certain line that shouldn’t be crossed, and that line is consciously showing up your opponent. Sano famously took his time rounding the bases last year in New Britain after a monster home run off former teammate Bobby Lanigan. Clearly Sano was in the wrong in that case, and Jeff Smith and the organization were right in benching him for a few games. Hopefully that is a lesson learned for the still just 20 year old Sano. The only other concern came early this offseason when, after playing in just two games in the Dominican Winter League, he was shut down due to a UCL strain. Immediately many were concerned about the possibility Sano would miss most, if not all, of the 2014 season if he needed Tommy John surgery. He not only saw Twins' doctors, but he also saw Dr. James Andrews, who prescribed a plan of rest and then beginning rehab in January. Sano is now on a throwing program and experiencing no pain in his elbow. It’s obviously something to be aware of, though there does not appear to be much concern. Looking Back Some of the readers at Twins Daily may be able to think back further than I, but in the last 25 years, power prospects have been few and far between in the Twins organization. I remember when Justin Morneau made his major league debut and received a standing ovation from Metrodome fans. I was watching at my home… standing up, and clapping. In 2002, he had 16 homers, 12 in the Midwest League (63 games) and four in 53 games in Ft. Myers. In 2003, he hit 22 minor league homers and four big league blasts. In 2004, he hit 22 homers in 72 games in Rochester and 19 home runs in 74 games with the Twins. Michael Cuddyer had 30 home runs in a full season at New Britain in 2001. In 2002, he played at AAA Edmonton and hit 20 home runs. That was good for 5th place on the team’s roster as Michael Ryan led with 31 and Michael Restovich had 29. I think it’s fair to say that when Miguel Sano arrives in the big leagues, he will arrive with more fanfare than any Twins player ever, with the possible exception of Joe Mauer. Sano signed with the Twins in October of 2009 under a cloud of controversy and intrigue. It’s been impressive that he has met and exceeded many of the expectations placed on him So… When will we see him? I expect Miguel Sano will return to New Britain to start the 2014 season. I also have my doubts he will spend any time in AAA Rochester. Assuming health, I would put the odds of Sano making his big league debut in 2014 at about 99.9% But when? There will be a couple factors that play into this. First, the strikeout rate and the defense will need to continue to improve. However, if Trevor Plouffe were to be placed on the disabled list for an extended period of time, I have little doubt the Twins would not hesitate to call up Sano, whether that be in May or June. Otherwise, the Twins could wait until June and gain a year of pre-arbitration time. They could have him play in the Futures Game at Target Field in July and then just stay with the big league club. Since he would have to be added to the 40 man roster after the 2014 season anyway, I believe he would, at the latest, be called up in September unless things went terribly wrong. Like TD Prospect #3 Alex Meyer, and like TD's #1 prospect whom you'll learn more about tomorrow, and like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau and Johan Santana, Miguel Sano is a cornerstone player. He is a guy who has the potential to lead the Twins organization back to prominence.