Seth Stohs

Being Ready and Gettiing Called Up are not the same thing.

I think that's probably right.

Wait... Mike and I agree... I want the Twins to sometimes trust and stick with the young guys. Rogers is the one that I think is ready right from the beginning. I do think Tonkin should be trusted for a full 2 month stretch to see if he can become what they hope (we hope) or not. I think Fien and Pressly are worth sticking with. Fien to see if he can return to 2013 and first four months of 2014 form. Pressly, again, because he has shown at times that he can be good with an opportunity. He was just about there last year when he got hurt.

I didn't forget Duffey... I just think that it would be silly - though not completely impossible - for him not to be in the starting rotation to start the season.

Earlier today, I wrote an article highlighting why I don’t think signing left-handed reliever Antonio Bastardo long-term makes much sense for the Twins. Now it’s time to take the other side of the coin and look at the case for the Twins locking him up to a long-term deal. After reading each, you can make up your own mind. Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, USA Today Earlier today, I wrote an article highlighting why I don’t think signing left-handed reliever Antonio Bastardo long-term makes much sense for the Twins. Now it’s time to take the other side of the coin and look at the case for the Twins locking him up to a long-term deal. After reading each, you can make up your own mind. There were a couple of primary reason for why the Twins should be cautious about signing Antonio Bastardo to a long-term deal. They include: 1.) He walks a ton. 2.) He’s been inconsistent (as are most relievers) 3.) The Twins have a ton of arms that could potentially be ready anytime from Opening Day through the middle of the 2017 season. 4.) The reality is that if he’s so great, someone would have given him the same three year, $18 million deal that Tony Sipp got. Right? (or maybe the other 29 teams are wrong too?) But there are several reasons that the Twins should strongly consider signing the hard-throwing left-hander to a multi-year free agent contract. It doesn’t make the above reasons wrong, but there are reasons to believe that he could really help the Twins bullpen for a couple of years. First and foremost, as much as I love to tout the minor leaguers and believe that a good organization needs to build from within, counting on minor leaguers before they get to the big leagues is risky as well. Signing relievers to free agent contracts (which, by definition, is a huge risk), but so is relying solely on internal options. As much as I believe in prospects like Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, JT Chargois, Mason Melotakis, Taylor Rogers and others throughout the system, the reality is that not all prospects make it and become what we think and hope they will. Twins pitchers and particularly the bullpen need more strikeouts. Antonio Bastardo can get strikeouts. As many walks as he has, he has a lot more strikeouts. His strikeout rates since 2010 have been 12.5, 10.9, 14.0, 9.9, 11.4 and 10.0. That is pretty dominant. Though there would be several games where he would frustrate, there would likely be more games when he came into a big situation, he will come through with a big strikeout. Although he does have noticeable splits, he is good against both left-handers and right handers. In 2015, right-handers hit .210/.311/.315 (.626) against him. Lefties hit just .138/.233/.215 (.448) against him. I still contend that a one year deal would be preferable, but again, predicting the future is impossible. Glen Perkins and Trevor May will be back in 2017. Michael Tonkin is out of options this year and we don’t know if he’ll be around after this year. Kevin Jepsen, unless he signs a multi-year deal before the season, is only signed through 2016. In other words, the unpredictability of the future does not only mean the prospects, but some of the veterans. If the back of the Twins bullpen consists for Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May and Antonio Bastardo, that has the potential to be pretty dominant. Also, they will be able to better play matchups. As we know, injuries happen. They are part of the game, so it's another case for depth being important. Finally, if some of those prospects can come up and be the fifth, sixth or seventh bullpen arm, that just extends the strength of the bullpen. As important, it means that starters may only need to provide five or six quality innings before handing things off to the bullpen. The strong bullpen will also be important should the Twins make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. So now you’ve seen both sides of the argument. I still personally still prefer a one-year deal, even if it is as much as $7 million over a three year, $15 million. Maybe a nice middle ground would be two years, and $10-11 million. You can even throw an option in there. View full article

There is, but they are people, so you never know what will happen.

Many wonder why the Minnesota Twins haven’t signed lefty-reliever Antonio Bastardo. Similar to Tony Sipp, who re-signed with the Astros for three years and $18 million, Bastardo remains unsigned. He is said to be looking for a similar contract. So, why haven’t the Twins been said to be in the conversation, at least not heavily? There are a few good, legitimate reasons. Some good reasons involving Bastardo, and several more good reasons because of other, internal options. Although Bastardo has struck out 11 batters per nine innings, he also has walked 4.3 batters per nine innings. That’s a lot of strikeouts, but it’s also a lot of walks. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski, USA Today Many wonder why the Minnesota Twins haven’t signed lefty-reliever Antonio Bastardo. Similar to Tony Sipp, who re-signed with the Astros for three years and $18 million, Bastardo remains unsigned. He is said to be looking for a similar contract. So, why haven’t the Twins been said to be in the conversation, at least not heavily? There are a few good, legitimate reasons. Some good reasons involving Bastardo, and several more good reasons because of other, internal options. Although Bastardo has struck out 11 batters per nine innings, he also has walked 4.3 batters per nine innings. That’s a lot of strikeouts, but it’s also a lot of walks. Per Doogie Wolfson in his most recent episode of The Scoops on 1500 ESPN’s podcast network, the Twins are certainly monitoring the Bastardo situation. Wolfson said he has been told by those in the know that the Twins are interested in Bastardo at one year and $3-4 million. As a Twins fan who also keeps fairly close tabs on the minor leagues, I fully support this decision. First, walks bug me. I like strikeouts as much as anyone, but walks annoy me. Bastardo is entertaining to watch as he can be completely dominant at times, but at other times he can be equally frustrating. The nature of relief pitchers is such that you never really know what you’re going to get. Tony Sipp was a great example of that. He was mediocre at best in his first six seasons, with Cleveland. But in his two years with the Astros, he has been very good. Bastardo’s career can be summarized simply by looking at his ERA+ in his six full seasons with the Pirates. Since 2010, his ERA+ have been 96, 146, 94, 163, 95, and then 129 in 2015. Of course, we know that ERA isn’t necessarily the best way to note how a reliever pitches. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) numbers have been between 2.76 and 3.34 in those years. I’d be fine with the Twins signing Antonio Bastardo, but I personally agree that a one-year deal is more ideal than a three year deal. In fact, I would make the case that I’d be fine with a one year, $7 million deal rather than a three year, $18 million deal. And, as much as we (many Twins fans) just want the Twins to sign Bastardo because we are comfortable with a three year, $18 million deal. The other thing to remember is that no team has been willing to offer him the three year, $18 million contract that he is said to be looking for. The other reason that I feel fully comfortable with the Twins saying they are willing to only go one year on Bastardo is because, as someone who follows the team’s farm system, there are some high-upside, power arms coming and soon. Last week, Wolfson tweeted, “Radcliff sites Reed, Chargois, Burdi, Rogers, Melotakis, Landa, as all being close. On Landa, ‘Will open eyes this spring.’” While I believe that Landa has incredible upside because he throws upper-90s gas, I would be surprised if he was ready before mid-2017. The others? I think all five of those are guys who could be ready by mid-season 2016. I think Taylor Rogers is ready for a reliever role in the Twins bullpen right away. The main reason to start him in AAA would just be to get him used to working in the bullpen after starting his entire career. The hope was that Nick Burdi might be ready last year. He really struggled, but then came on strong late in the season and continued that domination in the Arizona Fall League. He made some adjustment, and threw more strikes. He may be given a shot at an Opening Day roster spot, but I would think he could be up before June 1. JT Chargois missed all of the 2013 and 2014 seasons with elbow issues and eventually Tommy John surgery. He returned to Instructional League after the 2014 season and was hitting triple-digits. In his return in 2015, he was throwing in the upper-90s, occasionally hitting 100. He spent half of the season in Ft. Myers, and then was the closer through most of the second half of the season for the Lookouts.The former 2nd rounder, who was co-closer at Rice with Tyler Duffey, will also be given a real opportunity to make the Opening Day roster. Like Burdi, it’s more likely that he begins the season in the minor leagues, but he could be up in the season’s first couple of months. Mason Melotakis is another left-hander who may not be far off. He missed all of 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, but reports from Instructs after the season had him hitting 97 again. He was a college reliever who was given the opportunity to start. However, four starts into his 2014 season, he was moved back to the bullpen full time. While I think the Twins will (and should) be cautious with him early in the season, he could prove ready after the All Star break. Jake Reed struggled in his first full minor league season in 2015. The Twins had him start in AA, and he struggled. He went down to Ft. Myers (a level he had skipped) and did well and was quickly back with the Lookouts. He was tremendous in the Arizona Fall League as well. He will likely start the season in AA again, but is a guy who could be ready before the season is over. I would guess he will debut early in 2017, but certainly is feasible in 2016 as well. Yorman Landa is the sixth guy that Wolfson said that Radcliff mentioned. Again, he frequently hit 97-98 mph with his fastball. But he missed the first half of 2015 and a bunch of time in 2014 after shoulder surgery. He dominated at Cedar Rapids, but he has a ways to go. I would say the earliest he’d be ready would be by mid-2017. When I mentioned this to Wolfson, he added this tweet, “Radcliff told me they have 13 arms that have a good chance to be here by, at latest, mid-2017. Didn’t realize it was that high.” So, being me, I had to do a little research. Could I add seven names to the six mentioned above? Of course, when we hear that 13 arms could be ready by mid-2017, it’s important to remember that there are generally only seven or eight arms in a big league bullpen. So, while I have no problem with the statement, we also need to realize that opportunity also comes into play. In other words, we won’t likely see 13 arms before then. But who all could Radcliff be referring to? I’m going to assume that guys like Ryan Pressly, Michael Tonkin and JR Graham are among the 13. Pressly was part of the Twins bullpen when his season came to an end in mid-summer. He was pitching well. Michael Tonkin has been up and down, literally, a dozen times in the last three years. He is now out of options, so he will have to stick or be potentially claimed by another team. JR Graham spent all of 2015 with the Twins after they used the Rule 5 pick on him. He had the biggest arm in the Twins bullpen last year, but was still learning to pitch in the bullpen. He’s likely to spend a lot of time in Rochester in 2016. With those three added to the first six, that gives us nine. Let’s see if we can find another four or more. No problem. Alex Meyer - 2015 is over. 2016 is a new year. It’s a big year for Meyer, but the talent and potential are still there. He will come to spring training with an opportunity to make the team. If not, he could be a guy who comes up quick if he pitches more like he did in 2014 than 2015. Corey Williams - Williams missed all of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery. He returned in June of 2015 and pitched well, getting back to AA. He hits 93 and 94, and could add a bit more in 2016. He’s also known as having a great slider. He is certainly one to watch. Logan Darnell - He struggled early in his transition to the bullpen, but he can be a lefty-reliever option, or at least a long-relief option. Pat Dean - Somewhat controversial when he was added to the 40 man roster, Dean had a terrific 2015 season in Rochester. Though he tops out at 90, he has a good slider and curveball and could be an option as a reliever. Luke Bard - Fought injuries and went through a few surgeries since being drafted, but Luke Bard finally was healthy in the second half of 2015. The Twins kept him in Cedar Rapids, but he could move quickly in 2016. He throws hard and has a strong three-pitch mix. He is definitely a sleeper for me in 2016. Jason Adam - He missed all of 2015 with elbow surgery, but the right-hander was a Top 10 prospect in the Royals system just a couple of years ago. If he can return to form, he is certainly one to monitor this year. Trevor Hildenberger - He was our choice as Twins minor league relief pitcher of the year in 2015. He began the season dominating in Cedar Rapids, and fared well in Ft. Myers upon his promotion. He also pitched very well in the Arizona Fall League. The side-winder throws harder than most sidearm throwers, but also has confidence in three pitches in any count. Brandon Peterson - The Minnesota native was our choice for Twins minor league reliever of the year in 2014. He pitched in Ft. Myers and Chattanooga in 2015. At one point, he went 25 innings without allowing a run. There are eight names, so we’re already past 13 arms. Here are a few more: DJ Baxendale - He has been a starter most of his minor league career, but with a low-90s fastball and a good slider, he could be a solid bullpen option going forward. Michael Cederoth - Though the Twins had the hard-thrower starting in 2014 and 2015, he could move back to the bullpen. In college he pitched in relief and topped 100 on occasions. In the bullpen, he could move quickly. Alex Wimmers - The former first-round pick has been OK in the bullpen. He can become a minor league free agent following the 2016 season if he’s not on the 40 man roster, so I expect he’ll go to AAA and then we’ll see. Cole Johnson - like AJ Achter, Cole Johnson was drafted in a round that no longer exists, but he has moved up the system and got to AAA in 2015. Brett Lee - Another guy who has started through his career. He’s a low strikeout guy as a starter, but his stuff is good, so maybe in a bullpen role, he could thrive. Alex Muren - a ground ball machine, Muren spent some time in Chattanooga in 2015. He was said to be consistently in the mid-90s in 2015. So, as you’re reading those names, you can judge for yourself the level of likelihood that each is going to be ready to contribute to the Twins by mid-2017. Some are probably 90% likely. Others may be closer to 10% But I think that Radcliff’s comment that there are 13 guys who could be ready by mid-2017 is more than fair. And, I chose not to include JO Berrios, Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonsalves, Randy Rosario, Fernando Romero, Aaron Slegers, Kohl Stewart and Lewis Thorpe would all remain starters for the next two years. And that brings us back to Bastardo and the Twins willingness to go one year on him or any other reliever. In my mind, it makes sense to offer him the one year. In fact, I’d be fine with offering him more for that one year just to stay away from a multi-year deal. So, what do you think? Be sure to follow Doogie Wolfson on Twitter and listen to his podcast, The Scoops, on the 1500 ESPN network. View full article

The contracts are not fully guaranteed. If they're released by a certain date in spring training, the Twins only have to pay something like 20% of it.

They're not necessarily related. First, Vargas has an option and serves no purpose other than a guy in AAA in case Mauer or Park get hurt. Santana will make the team, and he'll play CF, SS, 2B... Arcia will make the team and be a backup in LF, RF and DH. Nunez will be a backup at 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF. They all can pinch hit. The other bench bat would be the backup catcher.

On some level, yes... Everyone is different. For me, I factor in a bunch. Some is statistical. K rate, BB rate ( for hitters and pitchers), but also age to level of competition. I try to see as many of them in spring training, in Cedar Rapids, on milb.tv, getting to know them, their makeup, personality, work ethic, etc. Scouting reports... Stats become more important in my opinion as a player moves up, and the tools become skills. And then factor in other things, and then call it an educated guess... or a prospect ranking.

Correct... just one spot in the lineup.

I don't use it as a method of indicating what a player should be paid... just what is "value" is relative to others. In free agency, Plouffe probably gets a 3 year, $30-35 million deal... even if FanGraphs indicates that he's a $20M player.

Polanco, Vielma and Gordon are all ahead of him on any depth chart.

Here is a spot to discuss when the Twins reach an agreement with an arbitration-eligible player. If they don't reach an agreement, we can share the numbers they exchange on Friday. Here is Jeremy Nygaard's article on what to expect. Tommy Milone - agreed at $4.5 million. (per Jon Heyman) Eduardo Nunez - agree at $1.475 million. (per Mike Berardino) Eduardo Escobar - agree at $2.15 million. (per Mike Berardino) Casey Fien - agree at $2.275 million. (per Mike Berardino) Kevin Jepsen filed at $5.4 million. Twins filed at $5.05 million. Mid-point = $5.225 million. (per Jon Heyman)

Here is a Miguel Sano interview (in Spanish) on his rookie season, the transition to the outfield and more. http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/26382902/v538471283/mlb-rookie-prg-miguel-sano-min-3bof/?mlbtax=rookie_career_dev_program

Yeah, when this news came out this morning, it was very interesting... Having chatted with his now-former agent Rob Plummer, I'm surprised, but it'll likely be good for Sano.

The difference is that Schafer has been up and down over several years, and after the Twins let him go last year, no one picked him up. Butera's been on a big league roster for like 5 straight years. No need for him to switch positions or waste time in the minors.

It's not high school. He can't come in and out of the game. However, he could pinch run for someone, and then through a double-switch, he could come in and pitch.

No way to know. We'll find out.

Hey ya'll, I joined Bradley and Darrell on their Talking Twins Podcast last night. Here is a link to the audio. It was a fun conversation, though listening to it, there is an audio issue. You'll have to turn the volume up quite a bit to hear me. Bradley said it was an issue he learned of after recording. Talked Prospect Handbook, but went into detail on a lot of prospects.

I appreciate it. They're definitely fun, and they all deserve to be recognized.

I'd say 35 for Sano and 20 for Plouffe works for me... not that I would mind Sano hitting 40.

No, I fully get the point... I just think that an offseason can do wonders. When guys have the stuff that those guys have, they can move quick. Doesn't mean they will. They weren't ready on September 1, but that has nothing to do with whether or not they're ready May 1. A lot happens in that time.