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Everything posted by Seth Stohs
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Article: Drafting College Relievers
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Because they work 60-70 innings instead of 160-200 innings.- 57 replies
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Article: Drafting College Relievers
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
And I think it is good to have a bit of a mix, but upper-90s is more fun.- 57 replies
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Article: Drafting College Relievers
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's hard to predict injuries. One of the reasons Mark Prior was so highly thought of was because he was said to have flawless mechanics.- 57 replies
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Article: Drafting College Relievers
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It was definitely part of it. He needed a second pitch and he was never able to get a consistent one. But there are other benefits to having relievers learn to start. First, most relievers aren't 8th or 9th inning guys and may need to work two innings, maybe even three innings from time to time. Second, the situations that a one-inning guy faces once in awhile, a starter will likely face that once or twice a game and have to learn how he can get out of it. Maybe in the second inning of a game, there are runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out. That guy has to figure out how to get out of that situations. So, they're actually able to work through more situations as a starter.- 57 replies
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In June, the Twins used the sixth overall pick on a hard-throwing, left-handed, college relief pitcher. Tyler Jay made two starts in his three season at the University of Illinois. Out of the bullpen, he was throwing a fastball as high as 97. He has three other pitches scouts believe can be at least average ,if not better than average, along with strong makeup. Has the strategy of drafting hard-throwing college relievers paid out at all for the Twins to this point? We haven’t seen a lot of success with it at the big league level, but that doesn’t mean it was or is a bad strategy.Let’s take a look at the college relievers that the Twins have taken in the first ten rounds of the last eight drafts. 2008 DRAFT Carlos Gutierrez was the 27th overall pick of the 2008 draft by the Twins. He had been the closer for the University of Miami in their run in the College World Series. He had been pitching in relief because he had Tommy John surgery the year earlier. He started for two seasons before moving to the bullpen in the second half of 2010. He wanted to pitch out of the bullpen. In 2011 and 2012 in Rochester, he posted ERAs over 5.00 out of the bullpen. He spent a year in the Cubs system before calling it career in 2014. 2009 DRAFT After taking Kyle Gibson and Matt Bashore with their first two picks (first-rounders), the Twins took Billy Bullock in the second round and Ben Tootle in the third round. Billy Bullock was the closer at the University of Florida. He was known for working in the upper-90s. He did well in the low levels of the minor leagues, but he really struggled with his control. Before the 2011 season, he was traded to the Braves so that the Twins could keep Rule 5 pick Scott Diamond. He split time between AA and AAA in 2011 and 2012. In 2013, he served a 50-game PED suspension before being released. He’s played in several independent leagues since then, last year in Sioux City. Ben Tootle was actually a starter at Jacksonville State University. He frequently hit 100 mph on the radar gun despite a slight frame. He fought shoulder problems, had surgery and continued to fight control problems. He was let go following the 2011 season and spent one year in independent ball. 2010 DRAFT The Twins didn’t draft a college relief pitcher until they took Matt Hauser in the eighth round. 2011 DRAFT With their second round pick, the Twins selected Eden Prairie native Madison Boer from the University of Oregon. There he had split time between starting and the bullpen. The Twins wanted to give him an opportunity to start. He made 19 starts for Ft. Myers in 2012 but then just three more before he was released in July. In the third round, they took hard-throwing left-hander Corey Williams out of Vanderbilt. There was never any thought to making him a starter. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2014 season after having Tommy John surgery. He returned in June of 2015 and got through the season. Fully healthy, he will likely start the season in Chattanooga but could realistically debut with the Twins by the end of the season. 2012 DRAFT After taking Byron Buxton with the second overall pick and JO Berrios with the 32nd overall pick the Twins selected Georgia Tech reliever Luke Bard With the 42nd overall pick. There was a plan to give him an opportunity to start. Unfortunately, coming into the 2015 season, Bard had accumulated a total of only 19.1 innings. He had several surgeries and missed the entire 2014 season. He returned in mid-2015 with the Kernels and got through the season healthy. If healthy, he can move up quickly because he throws hard and gets great movement. In the second round, the Twins selected left-hander Mason Melotakis out of Northwestern State University in Louisiana. Out of the bullpen, he was hitting 97. In 2013, he made 18 starts before ending the season in the bullpen for Cedar Rapids. In 2014, he made two starts in Ft. Myers before being moved permanently to the bullpen. His 2014 ended prematurely and had Tommy John surgery in October which cost him the 2015 season. He was just added to the Twins 40-man roster because of his potential to be a dominant lefty reliever in the not-too-distant future. In the third round, the Twins took Rice University’s first baseman and co-closer JT Chargois. He hit over .300 in this time at Rice, but it was on the mound that he got noticed. Sporting an upper-90s fastball, he began his career in Elizabethton and made 12 appearances in 2012. He didn’t pitch again in a game until the 2015 season because of injury leading to Tommy John surgery. He came back and sat in the upper-90s, frequently hitting 100. He also has a good slider. Following the season, he was an easy choice to add to the 40-man roster. He could surface quickly in 2015. In the fifth round, the Twins took Rice’s other co-closer, Tyler Duffey. He had been a reliever his entire life, but the Twins felt that he could transition to being a starter. In 2013, he worked 121 innings between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. In 2014, he pitched 149.1 innings between Ft. Myers, New Britain and Rochester. And in 2015, he threw 138.1 innings between Chattanooga and Rochester before finishing the season with 58 innings with the Twins. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say he was their best pitcher the final six weeks of the season. Sure, he’s made just nine starts, but he certainly looks like he can be a solid mid-rotation guy, maybe more with that curve ball. 2013 DRAFT The Twins didn’t take a college reliever until the seventh round when they took Brian Gilbert out of Seton Hall. 2014 DRAFT After taking Nick Gordon with their first pick, the Twins went on a long run of college relievers again. Nick Burdi was their second round pick out of Louisville. He was a bullpen guy all along and obviously will remain so. 2015 was a learning experience for him. He came one strong after his return to AA late in the season. He had a great showing in the Arizona Fall League. His fastball touches triple-digits, and his slider was much improved. With those two pitches, he has the potential to be a great reliever. And soon! In the third round, they went with a righty Michael Cederoth. He had started some at San Diego State, but was a reliever his junior season. He was also hitting 100 at times. The Twins had him start at E-Town, and he began the 2015 season in the Cedar Rapids rotation. He made six starts and five bullpen appearances before being shut down for the rest of the season with “illness.” He will likely move to the bullpen where he again has a chance to dominate with the big fastball. In the fourth round, they selected Georgia Tech lefty Sam Clay. The lefty began the season with Cedar Rapids in the bullpen, but he struggled with his control and went back to Elizabethton to start. He returned late in the season and made a few starts for the Kernels. He will likely continue to get an opportunity to start, but as a reliever, he can reach 97. At some point, it’s most likely that he will wind up in the bullpen. Jake Reed was the team’s fifth round pick. He was a starter the first two seasons at Oregon before becoming the team’s closer his junior year. There may have been thought of having him start, but after seeing the way he dominated in Cedar Rapids and then in the AFL in 2014, as well as seeing his pitch mix, the decision to leave him in the bullpen easy. He skipped Ft. Myers and jumped right to AA. He really struggled and midway through the second half was sent down to the Miracle where he figured some things out. He came back to the Lookouts and pitched great in the AFL. Like Burdi and Chargois, Reed could debut with the Twins in 2016. That wasn’t it. In the sixth round they took University of Texas closer John Curtiss and gave him a chance to start. SUMMARY While a big deal is made of the Twins taking a bunch of college relievers and making them starters, it’s not as common as we want to think. In these eight years, they did it with Carlos Gutierrez, Madison Boer, Tyler Duffey, Michael Cederoth and Sam Clay. A 20% success rate would be pretty good. The rest of the power arms were and will continue to work out of the bullpen. As we have seen the trend in baseball the last few years, power bullpen arms are hugely valuable. Injury has taken its toll on this group, to be sure. Five of the 15 pitchers have had major surgery that has cost them a year of development or more. When college pitchers, drafted at 21, miss a year of time due to injury, they aren’t going to debut at 22 or 23 the way many like to see. Taking care of them in their recovery, and bringing them back smartly, can mean they won’t debut until they’re 25, maybe even 26. And that’s OK. Tyler Jay will get an opportunity to start beginning in 2016. We’ll see how that goes. When you take a guy with the sixth overall pick in the draft, you need to be very sure that he can start. In the fifth round in 2015, the Twins took hard-throwing lefty Alex Robinson from Maryland. He’s had bad control, but he can hit 96 and shows a devastating slider that needs to be controlled and developed. There’s no question that teams like the Royals have shown how valuable a bullpen can be. If starters can complete six innings, the team has a good chance to win. With guys like Williams, Chargois, Bard, Melotakis, Burdi and Reed getting close, the Twins will hopefully have that kind of dominant bullpen in the not-too-distant future. There is no perfect way to grade a draft. The strategy of drafting hard-throwing college relievers hasn’t provided any success to the big league club with the exception of nine starts from Tyler Duffey. Injury has delayed the timeline for several others. However, there is a lot of potential that is getting very close to contributing to the big league club soon. Maybe we can judge it again in five years or so. Click here to view the article
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Let’s take a look at the college relievers that the Twins have taken in the first ten rounds of the last eight drafts. 2008 DRAFT Carlos Gutierrez was the 27th overall pick of the 2008 draft by the Twins. He had been the closer for the University of Miami in their run in the College World Series. He had been pitching in relief because he had Tommy John surgery the year earlier. He started for two seasons before moving to the bullpen in the second half of 2010. He wanted to pitch out of the bullpen. In 2011 and 2012 in Rochester, he posted ERAs over 5.00 out of the bullpen. He spent a year in the Cubs system before calling it career in 2014. 2009 DRAFT After taking Kyle Gibson and Matt Bashore with their first two picks (first-rounders), the Twins took Billy Bullock in the second round and Ben Tootle in the third round. Billy Bullock was the closer at the University of Florida. He was known for working in the upper-90s. He did well in the low levels of the minor leagues, but he really struggled with his control. Before the 2011 season, he was traded to the Braves so that the Twins could keep Rule 5 pick Scott Diamond. He split time between AA and AAA in 2011 and 2012. In 2013, he served a 50-game PED suspension before being released. He’s played in several independent leagues since then, last year in Sioux City. Ben Tootle was actually a starter at Jacksonville State University. He frequently hit 100 mph on the radar gun despite a slight frame. He fought shoulder problems, had surgery and continued to fight control problems. He was let go following the 2011 season and spent one year in independent ball. 2010 DRAFT The Twins didn’t draft a college relief pitcher until they took Matt Hauser in the eighth round. 2011 DRAFT With their second round pick, the Twins selected Eden Prairie native Madison Boer from the University of Oregon. There he had split time between starting and the bullpen. The Twins wanted to give him an opportunity to start. He made 19 starts for Ft. Myers in 2012 but then just three more before he was released in July. In the third round, they took hard-throwing left-hander Corey Williams out of Vanderbilt. There was never any thought to making him a starter. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2014 season after having Tommy John surgery. He returned in June of 2015 and got through the season. Fully healthy, he will likely start the season in Chattanooga but could realistically debut with the Twins by the end of the season. 2012 DRAFT After taking Byron Buxton with the second overall pick and JO Berrios with the 32nd overall pick the Twins selected Georgia Tech reliever Luke Bard With the 42nd overall pick. There was a plan to give him an opportunity to start. Unfortunately, coming into the 2015 season, Bard had accumulated a total of only 19.1 innings. He had several surgeries and missed the entire 2014 season. He returned in mid-2015 with the Kernels and got through the season healthy. If healthy, he can move up quickly because he throws hard and gets great movement. In the second round, the Twins selected left-hander Mason Melotakis out of Northwestern State University in Louisiana. Out of the bullpen, he was hitting 97. In 2013, he made 18 starts before ending the season in the bullpen for Cedar Rapids. In 2014, he made two starts in Ft. Myers before being moved permanently to the bullpen. His 2014 ended prematurely and had Tommy John surgery in October which cost him the 2015 season. He was just added to the Twins 40-man roster because of his potential to be a dominant lefty reliever in the not-too-distant future. In the third round, the Twins took Rice University’s first baseman and co-closer JT Chargois. He hit over .300 in this time at Rice, but it was on the mound that he got noticed. Sporting an upper-90s fastball, he began his career in Elizabethton and made 12 appearances in 2012. He didn’t pitch again in a game until the 2015 season because of injury leading to Tommy John surgery. He came back and sat in the upper-90s, frequently hitting 100. He also has a good slider. Following the season, he was an easy choice to add to the 40-man roster. He could surface quickly in 2015. In the fifth round, the Twins took Rice’s other co-closer, Tyler Duffey. He had been a reliever his entire life, but the Twins felt that he could transition to being a starter. In 2013, he worked 121 innings between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. In 2014, he pitched 149.1 innings between Ft. Myers, New Britain and Rochester. And in 2015, he threw 138.1 innings between Chattanooga and Rochester before finishing the season with 58 innings with the Twins. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say he was their best pitcher the final six weeks of the season. Sure, he’s made just nine starts, but he certainly looks like he can be a solid mid-rotation guy, maybe more with that curve ball. 2013 DRAFT The Twins didn’t take a college reliever until the seventh round when they took Brian Gilbert out of Seton Hall. 2014 DRAFT After taking Nick Gordon with their first pick, the Twins went on a long run of college relievers again. Nick Burdi was their second round pick out of Louisville. He was a bullpen guy all along and obviously will remain so. 2015 was a learning experience for him. He came one strong after his return to AA late in the season. He had a great showing in the Arizona Fall League. His fastball touches triple-digits, and his slider was much improved. With those two pitches, he has the potential to be a great reliever. And soon! In the third round, they went with a righty Michael Cederoth. He had started some at San Diego State, but was a reliever his junior season. He was also hitting 100 at times. The Twins had him start at E-Town, and he began the 2015 season in the Cedar Rapids rotation. He made six starts and five bullpen appearances before being shut down for the rest of the season with “illness.” He will likely move to the bullpen where he again has a chance to dominate with the big fastball. In the fourth round, they selected Georgia Tech lefty Sam Clay. The lefty began the season with Cedar Rapids in the bullpen, but he struggled with his control and went back to Elizabethton to start. He returned late in the season and made a few starts for the Kernels. He will likely continue to get an opportunity to start, but as a reliever, he can reach 97. At some point, it’s most likely that he will wind up in the bullpen. Jake Reed was the team’s fifth round pick. He was a starter the first two seasons at Oregon before becoming the team’s closer his junior year. There may have been thought of having him start, but after seeing the way he dominated in Cedar Rapids and then in the AFL in 2014, as well as seeing his pitch mix, the decision to leave him in the bullpen easy. He skipped Ft. Myers and jumped right to AA. He really struggled and midway through the second half was sent down to the Miracle where he figured some things out. He came back to the Lookouts and pitched great in the AFL. Like Burdi and Chargois, Reed could debut with the Twins in 2016. That wasn’t it. In the sixth round they took University of Texas closer John Curtiss and gave him a chance to start. SUMMARY While a big deal is made of the Twins taking a bunch of college relievers and making them starters, it’s not as common as we want to think. In these eight years, they did it with Carlos Gutierrez, Madison Boer, Tyler Duffey, Michael Cederoth and Sam Clay. A 20% success rate would be pretty good. The rest of the power arms were and will continue to work out of the bullpen. As we have seen the trend in baseball the last few years, power bullpen arms are hugely valuable. Injury has taken its toll on this group, to be sure. Five of the 15 pitchers have had major surgery that has cost them a year of development or more. When college pitchers, drafted at 21, miss a year of time due to injury, they aren’t going to debut at 22 or 23 the way many like to see. Taking care of them in their recovery, and bringing them back smartly, can mean they won’t debut until they’re 25, maybe even 26. And that’s OK. Tyler Jay will get an opportunity to start beginning in 2016. We’ll see how that goes. When you take a guy with the sixth overall pick in the draft, you need to be very sure that he can start. In the fifth round in 2015, the Twins took hard-throwing lefty Alex Robinson from Maryland. He’s had bad control, but he can hit 96 and shows a devastating slider that needs to be controlled and developed. There’s no question that teams like the Royals have shown how valuable a bullpen can be. If starters can complete six innings, the team has a good chance to win. With guys like Williams, Chargois, Bard, Melotakis, Burdi and Reed getting close, the Twins will hopefully have that kind of dominant bullpen in the not-too-distant future. There is no perfect way to grade a draft. The strategy of drafting hard-throwing college relievers hasn’t provided any success to the big league club with the exception of nine starts from Tyler Duffey. Injury has delayed the timeline for several others. However, there is a lot of potential that is getting very close to contributing to the big league club soon. Maybe we can judge it again in five years or so.
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Article: What Holes Still Must Be Filled?
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think if Buxton doesn't win the starting CF job in spring that Danny Santana will be the starting CF with Rosario in one of the corners and Sano in the other. Arcia to the bench. As has been mentioned previously and in Nick's article, there's a lot of time left to work some of this out too. I think the starting 5 pitchers will be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Milone and Duffey. I definitely think Duffey and Milone showed enough. So, with Nolasco it's long relief or let go (ideally traded). The bullpen looks fine, especially with all that depth. I would consider McGee and Storen, but I wouldn't overpay for anyone else. -
Article: The Next Massive Twins Contract
Seth Stohs replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I hope the Twins go with the strategy that they have used many times in the last 10-15 eyars. Long-term contracts to keep guys a year or two past free agency. They did that with Radke, Hunter, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Nathan, Span, Santana, The difference is that instead of 4 year, $32-40 million deals, they will likely have to do something like 5 years, $85-100 million deals. -
Article: Nearing The End Of An Era
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
So you saw the team come to Met Stadium... saw a group of 60s core players come up like Oliva, Hall, Carew and Blyleven. I don't know if there were any great young cores in the '70s, but Bostock probably wasn't the only one... then the 82 team through Puckett and Gagne in 1984.- 40 replies
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Article: Nearing The End Of An Era
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Drafted as a shortstop. Came up as an outfielder. Move to 3B for a bit, played OK at 2B for awhile, went back to 3B, and then finally took off when they just put him in right. Remember when Morneau's season ended in 2008 and Cuddyer went to 1B, and then he and Mauer put up amazing numbers the final 2-3 weeks of the season and got the Twins to the playoff?- 40 replies
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Article: Nearing The End Of An Era
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Great points... I guess I lumped Kubel in with Morneau, Liriano and Mauer in a group that came up after that 1998-2002 group... though the next group was probably 2003-2006. The nice thing is that from 1998 through about 2010, the Twins had one, maybe two, rookie contributors coming up almost every year. Nice because you're not going to win when you are counting on 10-15 rookies, but able to replace guys that leave with competence.- 40 replies
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On Friday night, news leaked the outfielder Michael Cuddyer had informed the Mets of his intention to retire. A clear leader on some very good Minnesota Twins teams in the second half of last decade, Cuddyer has spent the last four years with the Rockies and the Mets. He is the most recent member of those Twins teams who brought baseball enthusiasm back to Minnesota to speak of retirement. Shortly after the end of the 2015 season, outfielder Torii Hunter announced his retirement. Hunter returned to the Twins for the season. He had some ups and downs, but certainly performed as well, or better, than anyone could have hoped for. He turned 40 in July. He may have been able to get through another season, but he left on his own accord. Likewise, Cuddyer had a tough 2015 season with the Mets, certainly not up to the caliber he displayed when healthy in Colorado. However, he was able to participate in the World Series and goes out at the age of 36. In fact, he left his 2016 salary of $12.5 million on the table. Sure, he's probably doing just fine financially, but it does speak volumes to the class act that Cuddyer is.LaTroy Hawkins announced during the season that 2015 would his last. He certainly had his ups and (a lot of) downs in his time with the Twins. He had just figured things out in 2002 and 2003, becoming one of the top set-up men in baseball. Who would have known that he would play for another dozen seasons? Even in 2015, he was still throwing a good fastball in the mid-90s. He probably could have played again in 2016, but as he is turning 43 in less than two weeks, he's ready to move on to the next stage of his life. Another from that group of players is David Ortiz. We all know the back story, and what he has become, but he was an important piece on the field and in the clubhouse in the early part of last decade. When the Twins non-tendered him, no team wanted him. In fact, it wasn't for about two months after being non-tendered that the Red Sox signed him to a $1.5 million deal and they said he might compete for platoon at-bats. Five hundred career home runs later, he announced that 2016 will be his final season. Ortiz turned 40 following the 2015 season. Two other players remain active in baseball from the 2002 roster that won an ALDS series before losing to the eventual World Champions, the Angels. Kyle Lohse is 36 and is currently an unsigned free agent. The other is AJ Pierzynski, who is still catching, re-signed with Atlanta for 2016, his age 39 season. He hit .300 last year. Well, I guess Johan Santana is going to give a comeback one more try, but we'll see. That's it! If you are old enough to remember being a Twins fan through the highs of 1987 and 1991, you can also appreciate just how bad the baseball was in Minnesota from about 1996 through 2000. And then this group started coming up in 1998. Rookies were surrounded by veterans and over time, they started figuring it out. They started being competitive in 2001. Tom Kelly retired and Ron Gardenhire took over a team that everyone knew should compete. And they did. You likely remember Dusty Kielmohr, the nickname of the Twins right field players through most of the season. Dusty Mohr and Bobby Kielty both contributed. In fact Kielty posted a bWAR of 2.7 while Mohr's was at 2.3. Everyone will remember the Keystone Combo of Luis Rivas and Cristian Guzman. Na Na Na Na Na.. Jacque Jones was recently named an assistant hitting coach for Dusty Baker and the Nationals. Matthew Lecroy was the Nationals bullpen coach for a few years. Eddie Guardado became the Twins bullpen coach last year. Doug Mientkiewicz has won two championships in two seasons as a manager in the Twins minor leagues. This was the group that brought me back to baseball. When I was in college, we didn't have cable in our dorm rooms the first couple of years, so I couldn't watch. But this group of players got me back into it. I've always been a fan of rookies and prospects, so watching that group come together and build to something special was a lot of fun. Seeing another one of them retire kind of makes me sad. It also makes me feel really old. As I'm sitting here thinking about the group of prospects that came up between 1998 and 2002, it makes me smile. It makes me think of being six years old, just getting into baseball cards, and just learning the names Kent Hrbek, Tom Brunanski, Gary Gaetti Frank VIola and eventually Kirby Puckett. And it makes me wonder which players from the Twins prospect promotions from 2014 to 2016 (like Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Tyler Duffey and JO Berrios) will be playing still in 2030. You don't play in the big leagues for more than a dozen years without being really good. So, congratulations to Torii Hunter, LaTroy Hawkins and now Michael Cuddyer on their fantastic careers. They have all represented themselves and their organizations very well on and off the field. Click here to view the article
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LaTroy Hawkins announced during the season that 2015 would his last. He certainly had his ups and (a lot of) downs in his time with the Twins. He had just figured things out in 2002 and 2003, becoming one of the top set-up men in baseball. Who would have known that he would play for another dozen seasons? Even in 2015, he was still throwing a good fastball in the mid-90s. He probably could have played again in 2016, but as he is turning 43 in less than two weeks, he's ready to move on to the next stage of his life. Another from that group of players is David Ortiz. We all know the back story, and what he has become, but he was an important piece on the field and in the clubhouse in the early part of last decade. When the Twins non-tendered him, no team wanted him. In fact, it wasn't for about two months after being non-tendered that the Red Sox signed him to a $1.5 million deal and they said he might compete for platoon at-bats. Five hundred career home runs later, he announced that 2016 will be his final season. Ortiz turned 40 following the 2015 season. Two other players remain active in baseball from the 2002 roster that won an ALDS series before losing to the eventual World Champions, the Angels. Kyle Lohse is 36 and is currently an unsigned free agent. The other is AJ Pierzynski, who is still catching, re-signed with Atlanta for 2016, his age 39 season. He hit .300 last year. Well, I guess Johan Santana is going to give a comeback one more try, but we'll see. That's it! If you are old enough to remember being a Twins fan through the highs of 1987 and 1991, you can also appreciate just how bad the baseball was in Minnesota from about 1996 through 2000. And then this group started coming up in 1998. Rookies were surrounded by veterans and over time, they started figuring it out. They started being competitive in 2001. Tom Kelly retired and Ron Gardenhire took over a team that everyone knew should compete. And they did. You likely remember Dusty Kielmohr, the nickname of the Twins right field players through most of the season. Dusty Mohr and Bobby Kielty both contributed. In fact Kielty posted a bWAR of 2.7 while Mohr's was at 2.3. Everyone will remember the Keystone Combo of Luis Rivas and Cristian Guzman. Na Na Na Na Na.. Jacque Jones was recently named an assistant hitting coach for Dusty Baker and the Nationals. Matthew Lecroy was the Nationals bullpen coach for a few years. Eddie Guardado became the Twins bullpen coach last year. Doug Mientkiewicz has won two championships in two seasons as a manager in the Twins minor leagues. This was the group that brought me back to baseball. When I was in college, we didn't have cable in our dorm rooms the first couple of years, so I couldn't watch. But this group of players got me back into it. I've always been a fan of rookies and prospects, so watching that group come together and build to something special was a lot of fun. Seeing another one of them retire kind of makes me sad. It also makes me feel really old. As I'm sitting here thinking about the group of prospects that came up between 1998 and 2002, it makes me smile. It makes me think of being six years old, just getting into baseball cards, and just learning the names Kent Hrbek, Tom Brunanski, Gary Gaetti Frank VIola and eventually Kirby Puckett. And it makes me wonder which players from the Twins prospect promotions from 2014 to 2016 (like Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Tyler Duffey and JO Berrios) will be playing still in 2030. You don't play in the big leagues for more than a dozen years without being really good. So, congratulations to Torii Hunter, LaTroy Hawkins and now Michael Cuddyer on their fantastic careers. They have all represented themselves and their organizations very well on and off the field.
- 40 comments
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- michael cuddyer
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I really like Aaron Hicks. Spent at least 20 minutes chatting with him in the locker room on the final weekend. Great kid. But, I still like the trade. Hicks had 6 great weeks in 3 seasons in the big leagues. I hope he does take off in New York. But I still like the trade. Sure, the Twins could have gone out and spent on good backup catchers where you know what you're going to get. But instead, he went aggressive and got a 24-year-old who is a backup because Brian McCann is their catcher. He was available because Gary Sanchez is also about ready. If Murphy can be an average major league catcher, and I think that's very reasonable, he can start and the team can have him for 5 years before free agency. Worst case, he's a solid major league backup. Best case, he's a slightly better than average starting catcher, which has a ton of value. There are several good backup catchers on that list above, but none are terrific by any means.
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Now, whether a person agrees with the decision to protect Dean or Jones is one thing, but I don't think it's at all fair to say that they don't have a plan. That makes it sound like they just picked names out of a hate to decide who to protect. From my understanding of the organizational meetings following the season, there is often heated debate on every player from the big leagues to the GCL (maybe even the DSL). They didn't take adding Dean or leaving Jones off lightly. Maybe there are factors that we haven't considered. Let's also remember that with his control issues (and other things), it's very possible that either Jones comes back to the organization in spring, or they acquire some other prospect to let the Brewers keep him.
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With all due respect, I think this is 100% inaccurate... if anything, TR may move too quickly most offseasons. The year he came back, he signed Josh Willingham and Jamey Carroll before the Winter Meetings (I think there was a third guy too). Three years ago, he traded Denard Span before the Winter Meetings and Ben Revere in the Winter Meetings. Two years ago, Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes were both signed before the winter meetings. Last year, he signed Ervin Santana at the Winter Meetings. Of course, in recent years, the Twins have had more needs. This year, they've been pretty vocal. They want one thing, LH RP. They don't have it yet. We'll see if he gets it or if not, if he'll go after a Storen or someone really good like that.
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Article: How Brett Lawrie's Trade Altered My Thinking
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yes. NOT trading him. Proofreading is important! -
Zack Jones selected by the Brewers in the 2nd round of the Rule 5 draft.
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It seems like a minor trade, and it probably is in the big picture, but when the White Sox acquired 3B Brett Lawrie from the Oakland A’s on Wednesday, it spoke volumes to me. How does that trade alter my opinion on the Twins trading Trevor Plouffe? Well, you’ll just have to read on to find out.It was another trade that went through at baseball’s Winter Meetings. Some transactions are big. Others, not so much. But when I saw that the Oakland A’s had traded third baseman Brett Lawrie to the White Sox in exchange for RHP JB Wendelken and LH Zach Erwin, I thought it was a bit noteworthy. I did a little research, checking out the two prospects that the A’s will receive from Chicago, and it speaks volumes to why Terry Ryan has been so adamant on not trading Trevor Plouffe. JB Wendelken is a 22-year-old right-handed pitcher. He was originally drafted by the Red Sox, but he went to the White Sox during the 2013 season. He was given an opportunity to start at High-A in 2014, but he went 7-10 with a 5.26 ERA in 27 starts. So, this year, he was moved to the bullpen and did well in AA but struggled in AAA. That’s solid for a 22-year-old. He’s a solid relief pitcher prospect, but he’s certainly not considered a top prospect. Zach Erwin was the White Sox fourth-round pick in 2015 out of Clemson. He’s got some projectability and had a nice pro debut. Between rookie league ball and Low A, he went 2-2 with a 1.34 ERA in 40.1 innings. He walked seven and struck out 30. He is also not a top prospect. Both of these guys are OK prospects, but they’re not going to pitch in the big leagues any time soon, and their upsides are considered marginal. So, what does this have to do with the Twins? Well, we entered the offseason thinking – maybe even assuming – that Terry Ryan would trade Trevor Plouffe. In the last two weeks, he has been adamant about the Twins having no plans to trade Plouffe. He said it at Byung Ho Park’s press conference, and he has reiterated it to the media gathered in Nashville this week. Maybe it was just me, but even with him saying that so strongly, I was about 50-50 on whether or not the Twins would trade their talented third baseman. After seeing what the A’s got for Lawrie, it’s pretty clear that Ryan likely didn’t get much more offered in his discussions. Do I think Trevor Plouffe is better than Brett Lawrie? Yes. No question. However, Lawrie is three-and-a-half years younger. He’s still just 25 for another month. That likely matters in trade discussion. Of course, I don’t have any information on what discussions went like when Terry Ryan took those phone calls from other GMs asking about Plouffe. We don’t know what range of player/prospect was being offered. However, I think we can make some legitimate assumptions based on what Billy Beane got from the White Sox for Brett Lawrie. As we have said all along, the Twins do not have to trade Plouffe. Miguel Sano can play in the outfield. It’ll take some learning and adjustments, but he can do it, at least for the short term. Plouffe will only make between $7.5 and $8 million in 2016 which is not an issue for the Twins’ budget. He’s got another year of arbitration-eligibility next offseason. Who knows? Maybe I’ll post this article and an hour later the Twins will have traded Plouffe. But, although I get the desire for Sano to play third base, his natural position, if the Twins only acquire a package similar to the Lawrie package, I would be very disappointed. Click here to view the article
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Zack Jones is one of 6 players mentioned in the MLB Pipeline Rule 5 Preview here: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/158824232/rule-5-draft-preview-from-jim-callis
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It was another trade that went through at baseball’s Winter Meetings. Some transactions are big. Others, not so much. But when I saw that the Oakland A’s had traded third baseman Brett Lawrie to the White Sox in exchange for RHP JB Wendelken and LH Zach Erwin, I thought it was a bit noteworthy. I did a little research, checking out the two prospects that the A’s will receive from Chicago, and it speaks volumes to why Terry Ryan has been so adamant on not trading Trevor Plouffe. JB Wendelken is a 22-year-old right-handed pitcher. He was originally drafted by the Red Sox, but he went to the White Sox during the 2013 season. He was given an opportunity to start at High-A in 2014, but he went 7-10 with a 5.26 ERA in 27 starts. So, this year, he was moved to the bullpen and did well in AA but struggled in AAA. That’s solid for a 22-year-old. He’s a solid relief pitcher prospect, but he’s certainly not considered a top prospect. Zach Erwin was the White Sox fourth-round pick in 2015 out of Clemson. He’s got some projectability and had a nice pro debut. Between rookie league ball and Low A, he went 2-2 with a 1.34 ERA in 40.1 innings. He walked seven and struck out 30. He is also not a top prospect. Both of these guys are OK prospects, but they’re not going to pitch in the big leagues any time soon, and their upsides are considered marginal. So, what does this have to do with the Twins? Well, we entered the offseason thinking – maybe even assuming – that Terry Ryan would trade Trevor Plouffe. In the last two weeks, he has been adamant about the Twins having no plans to trade Plouffe. He said it at Byung Ho Park’s press conference, and he has reiterated it to the media gathered in Nashville this week. Maybe it was just me, but even with him saying that so strongly, I was about 50-50 on whether or not the Twins would trade their talented third baseman. After seeing what the A’s got for Lawrie, it’s pretty clear that Ryan likely didn’t get much more offered in his discussions. Do I think Trevor Plouffe is better than Brett Lawrie? Yes. No question. However, Lawrie is three-and-a-half years younger. He’s still just 25 for another month. That likely matters in trade discussion. Of course, I don’t have any information on what discussions went like when Terry Ryan took those phone calls from other GMs asking about Plouffe. We don’t know what range of player/prospect was being offered. However, I think we can make some legitimate assumptions based on what Billy Beane got from the White Sox for Brett Lawrie. As we have said all along, the Twins do not have to trade Plouffe. Miguel Sano can play in the outfield. It’ll take some learning and adjustments, but he can do it, at least for the short term. Plouffe will only make between $7.5 and $8 million in 2016 which is not an issue for the Twins’ budget. He’s got another year of arbitration-eligibility next offseason. Who knows? Maybe I’ll post this article and an hour later the Twins will have traded Plouffe. But, although I get the desire for Sano to play third base, his natural position, if the Twins only acquire a package similar to the Lawrie package, I would be very disappointed.
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I wouldn't say that the Twins don't think Jones could get pick. I'm sure they're well aware that he could get picked. But they had to make choices, some tough choices.
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On Thursday morning in Nashville, baseball’s Winter Meetings will formally conclude with the Rule 5 draft. Teams with fewer than 40 players on their 40-man roster are able to make selections. The Twins have 40 on their roster (at this time) so they will not be able to make a selection in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft without a move. However, it is possible that they could lose a player or two to another team in the draft.The Twins have the 17th pick in the Rule 5 draft based on their finish in the standings during the 2015 season. It’s really impossible to know which players will have already been taken, and Terry Ryan has said that most likely they would not take anyone. The Twins have been pretty clear that they are looking for left-handed relievers and a fourth outfielder in free agency and in trades, so if they do clear room and make a pick, those would be the two areas that they could consider. The Twins have been pretty active in the Rule 5 Draft in recent years, selecting pitchers like JR Graham, Ryan Pressly, Scott Diamond and Terry Doyle. Who typically gets selected in the Rule 5 draft? Here is a rundown of the past five MLB Rule 5 drafts? 2014 – 14 selections – 5 RHP, 4 LHP, 3 Infielders, 1 outfielder, 1 catcher 2013 – 9 selections – 4 RHP, 3 LHP, 1 infielder, 0 outfielders, 1 catcher 2012 – 15 selections – 5 RHP, 3 LHP, 5 infielders, 2 outfielders, 0 catchers 2011 – 12 selections – 5 RHP, 3 LHP, 3 infielders, 1 outfielder, 0 catchers 2010 – 19 selections – 12 RHP, 4 LHP, 3 infielders, 0 outfielders, 0 catchers 5 year – 69 selections – 31 RHP, 17 LHP, 15 infielders, 4 outfielders, 2 catchers. Of course, five years is far too small of a sample size to make any strong opinions. Pitchers accounted for 70% of Rule 5 selections over the last five years. That’s no surprise. Of the selections, nearly half of them were returned to their previous team, and another large group stayed with the drafting team after a trade. Briefly, following the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft, the AAA and AA portions of the draft will take place. The public is not able to see who is on the Rochester or Chattanooga rosters, so it’s impossible to know who might be lost or made available. There’s no way to know who the Twins could add. I’m kind of pathetic, so I’ve already made a 2016 roster projection for all of the Twins affiliates. Frankly, after the Twins re-signed James Beresford and signed infielder Buck Britton, there aren’t any obvious needs in the minor leagues. Maybe a starting pitcher who could pitch in AA or AAA. Maybe another AAA outfield type, similar to Joe Benson. So, let’s take a look again at who the Twins could possibly lose in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft. We’ll look at the above categories. Catchers Eligible: Juan Centeno, Carlos Paulino, Michael Quesada, Jairo Rodriguez It’s quite unlikely that any of these guys will be selected. Outfielders Eligible: Travis Harrison, Edgar Corcino, Joe Benson Look again at the list above. Few outfielders are left unprotected. Harrison is still just 23-years-old. He was a supplemental first-round pick in 2013. Corcino is a great athlete who spent last season in Cedar Rapids, but again, these players are unlikely to be selected. Infielders Eligible: James Beresford, Levi Michael, Buck Britton, Niko Goodrum, Bryan Haar, Dalton Hicks, Aderlin Mejia, Reynaldo Rodriguez, Logan Wade, Stephen Wickens The name to be most concerned about losing is likely Levi Michael. The former first-round pick has endured more than his fair share of injuries. However, when he has been healthy the last two years, he has been productive offensively. He’s played mostly second base, with some shortstop, so could a team stash him in the big leagues as a utility infielder? It’s possible. Niko Goodrum is young and very athletic and there are a lot of people who still believe he will grow more into his frame. His value is that he can play shortstop, and the last couple of seasons, he has played a lot of third base and center field as well as some second base. A team could take a flyer on him developing late. That team would need to be willing to keep him all year. The assumption is, and should be, that James Beresford and Buck Britton will not be taken. However, the Twins have a history of signing a guy to a minor league contract and a week later losing him to the Rule 5 draft. That was R.A. Dickey in an an unusual situation. A team looking for a utility infielder could take one of these guys too. Left-Handed Pitchers Eligible: Corey Williams, David Hurlbut, Brett Lee, Jason Wheeler, Aaron Thompson All four of these guys ended last season with a championship in Chattanooga. Wheeler was the MVP of the championship series. Hurlbut, Lee and Wheeler all were part of a terrific starting rotation. Wheeler was added to the 40-man roster last year but struggled in AAA. Williams is fully healthy and he may be a guy teams are interested in as a long-term lefty bullpen guy. Right-Handed Pitchers Zack Jones, Felix Jorge, Alex Wimmers, Luke Bard, DJ Baxendale, Alex Muren, Dereck Rodriguez, Loek Van Mil, Jose Abreu, Jason Adam, Nick Anderson, Omar Bencomo, Sam Gibbons, Miguel Gonzalez, Cole Johnson, Kuo-Hua Lo, Greg Peavey, Tim Shibuya, Matt Summers, Todd Van Steensel Everyone is talking about Zack Jones, and I would say there is a decent chance that he is selected. If anyone will does get selected, it will be the hard-throwing right-hander. Alex Wimmers and Luke Bard are former first-round picks who are available. Wimmers is already 27 and was average in the Lookouts bullpen. Bard finally was healthy in the second half of 2015 and pitched well in Cedar Rapids. He is a guy who could move fast next year. Felix Jorge is one to watch as well. He has good stuff. He’s young. He was remarkably consistent last year with Cedar Rapids. Could a team stash him in the back of a bullpen, and how would a year in the bullpen affect him long-term? Sam Gibbons was good in the second half for Cedar Rapids as well, but the Australian is probably behind Jorge in the pecking order. Could a team take a flyer on the potential of Dereck Rodriguez who has only two years on the mound under his belt? Loek Van Mil signed back with the Twins late last year. Suddenly, the 7-1, 31-year-old was throwing in the upper-90s. Could be a guy that could contribute right away. Alex Muren isn’t a name that comes up a lot when people talk about bullpen options in the Twins system. However, he is a groundball machine, and last year, he was hitting 95-97 mph with a fastball. DJ Baxendale is a guy someone could take a flyer on as a future bullpen guy. He’s got a nice slider, and the two-pitch mix could make him an effective reliever. Cole Johnson has a unique delivery. The former low-round pick had some success at the AAA level. SUMMARY A team like the Milwaukee Brewers, who have just 35 players on their 40 man roster right now, could take a couple of players. As a team that isn’t likely to win in 2016, they would be OK with using up a couple of roster spots on Rule 5 picks. Other teams that may not plan to truly compete in 2016 could stash players. So, depending upon the team and the situation, the Twins do have a handful of guys that could be taken. Below is how I would rank the top five players who could be taken tomorrow morning: 1.) Zack Jones – I’d put it at about 50-50 2.) Levi Michael – maybe 30% 3.) Corey Williams – maybe 25% 4.) Felix Jorge – maybe 25% 5.) Luke Bard – maybe 20% Of course, these are just guesses. There is really no rhyme or reason to the Rule 5 draft. It will be entertaining to listen to, and I’m sure there will be plenty of discussion with the results. Click here to view the article
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