Seth Stohs

(Note that this is kind of a rambling, stream of consciousness opinion article typed up following a third straight very late night loss to the Dodgers. This series has completely thrown off my sleep pattern, but I also felt the need to write right away and express several thoughts that have crept into my mind through and then after the game. I hope it's coherent and enjoyable, and I hope you'll share your thoughts on it and on what the next steps are for our favorite team.) Even when the Minnesota Twins held a 5-0 or 5-2 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the middle innings of Wednesday night's game, there was no sense of confidence that the Twins would hold on. Those feelings proved accurate as the Dodgers clawed their way back and eventually won 6-5 in walk off fashion. The Twins are now 5.5 games back of Cleveland in the AL Central division, and four games behind second-place Kansas City in the division and for the second wild card spot. The Twins have lost ground to both teams each of the last four days. Think about that... five days ago, there were three teams within a game-and-a-half of each other, and now the Twins are a distant third place. So, what does it mean? What should the Twins and their front office do? Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, USA Today (Note that this is kind of a rambling, stream of consciousness opinion article typed up following a third straight very late night loss to the Dodgers. This series has completely thrown off my sleep pattern, but I also felt the need to write right away and express several thoughts that have crept into my mind through and then after the game. I hope it's coherent and enjoyable, and I hope you'll share your thoughts on it and on what the next steps are for our favorite team.) Even when the Minnesota Twins held a 5-0 or 5-2 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the middle innings of Wednesday night's game, there was no sense of confidence that the Twins would hold on. Those feelings proved accurate as the Dodgers clawed their way back and eventually won 6-5 in walk off fashion. The Twins are now 5.5 games back of Cleveland in the AL Central division, and four games behind second-place Kansas City in the division and for the second wild card spot. The Twins have lost ground to both teams each of the last four days. Think about that... five days ago, there were three teams within a game-and-a-half of each other, and now the Twins are a distant third place. So, what does it mean? What should the Twins and their front office do? When Twins fans thought that the team was on the cusp of acquiring lefty Jaime Garcia from Atlanta last Thursday, it signaled that the front office believed in the team enough to Buy. When the deal was actually consummated on Monday, it was again encouraging. The front office went out and made a move to make the 2017 team better. It verified that the front office believed that the team was worthy of investment and giving it an opportunity to reach a playoff spot this year. Maybe it even meant that more moves were on the way. Is it strange that three days later, the tone has completely changed? Instead of thinking Buy, Buy, Buy, the thoughts of Sell, Sell, Sell enter into the mind's of Twins fans. But is that the right decision? Is that fair to the 2017 Twins roster? Is that fair to the fans? Most important, is that fair to the big picture, longer term plans of the front office that have preached that they want a long-term, sustainable, championship caliber organization? It's easy to jump into sell mode. But at the same time, we knew coming out of the All-Star break that series with the Astros, Yankees and Dodgers would likely tell us a lot about this team. The Twins split six games with the Astros and Yankees (1-2 vs HOU, 2-1 vs NYY), but losing two out of three to the Tigers at Target Field hurt. And, as much as getting swept in Los Angeles is frustrating, it's important to acknowledge that they are clearly the best team in baseball. And the truth is that the Twins had a chance to win two of the three games played. And that's without Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano was unable to start the final two games. That tells me that this team is not far off. They are not in the same position they were in during this offseason, coming off of a 103-loss season. No longer does it appear that the winning would start in "a few years." That timeline has been pushed forward because of the work and dedication of this year's team. It is OK for Twins fans to think they can compete for a division title in 2017. It is also OK to acknowledge that looking at the 2017 pitching staff (both starters and bullpen) and say that big improvements are needed. It's OK to acknowledge that several of the key members of the offense are young and have improved. It's important to know that some of them will continue to improve going forward. It's also OK to acknowledge that Jorge Polanco has taken a huge step backwards in his development the last two months, going through the hated sophomore slump. The league has caught up to him, and it is now time for the still-just-24-year-old to adjust back to the league. I believe he can and he will. At the same time, as the offense hasn't been the big problem for the team, it's OK to acknowledge that the team ranks 20th in MLB in batting average and 19th in MLB in OPS. In other words, it can still get better. For right now, I think that the Twins need to take a step back so as not to rush to judgment. A day off on Thursday may be exact what they need. A trip to Oakland to take on the A's (who are 44-57) may also be good. A few more data points for the front office to take into account before Monday's trade deadline. Data points taken against a team that isn't potentially record-setting great. For right now, I think that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine need to stand pat and see what happens the next three games. If they're able to make up a couple of games, cautiously buy a mid-tier reliever or two, but don't give up the farm. If they continue to fall in the standings, the level of Sell can certainly be adjusted. For me, I don't see this team as needing to do a major sell. In other words, I would not trade Ervin Santana or Brian Dozier (with the oft-used caveat of "unless completely overwhelmed"). Dozier is under contract for 2018. Santana is under contract for 2018 with an option for 2019. They can be part of the continued winning. I wouldn't be afraid to take and make calls on impending free agents. That includes the likes of Brandon Kintzler, who could be a sell high candidate. It also includes Matt Belisle, who probably has minimal value, but has pitched pretty well of late. Hopefully Jaime Garcia will have a strong start on Friday so that if the Twins decide to deal, he could bring back a high-ceiling prospect to replace Huascar Ynoa in the system. The Twins dealt Ynoa and took on most of Garcia's remaining salary. Maybe the Twins consider eating more of Garcia's salary in return for a higher-level prospect. They could come out ahead in that deal. Consider internally which arbitration-eligible players will be brought back an in future plans. See what you can get for them. This includes Kyle Gibson, Ehire Adrianza and Eduardo Escobar, among others. But again, do not trade talent just to trade it. There should be a market for Ervin Santana. There could be a huge market for Taylor Rogers, if the Twins were to make him available. The Mariners gave up four minor leaguers for David Phelps. The Rockies gave up three minor leaguers for Pat Neshek, who is a free agent at the end of the season. Rogers has 4+ years of controllable time. The Twins could ask for the world for him, but they should only deal him if they get it. Listen on everyone, but be wise. The final thought I have is that the team should mostly stand pat at this point. After the deadline passes, I think they can make improvements to the team by trusting their minor leagues. The bullpen has struggled, but Trevor Hildenberger and Alan Busenitz have looked pretty solid in their opportunities. Next up, let's try out guys like Jake Reed and John Curtiss, two hard-throwing relievers who need to be added to the 40-man roster anyway this November. They both have the type of stuff that could help the Twins in 2017. By bringing them up, you're not saying that you're throwing in the towel. In my opinion, it's just the opposite. They're gaining MLB experience and hopefully getting over MLB nerves while also attempting to help you win ball games. Need a starter after Bartolo Colon is let go, see what Aaron Slegers can do. He's been terrific this season, and especially his last seven starts for the Red Wings, give him a shot. Felix Jorge has struggled in his return to Chattanooga after a couple of Twins starts, but Fernando Romero is on the 40-man roster and he's been dominant in AA. He could give the Twins a spark as a starter, or since he's already being limited to five innings per start, he could move to the bullpen later in the season to develop and control his innings. Stephen Gonsalves, like Slegers, isn't on the 40-man roster, so you'd hate to lose an option if you don't have to, but he might be the most ready to contribute to the Twins right now. Calling up those three isn't about throwing in the towel. It's about giving guys opportunities. Guys who, unlike Chris Heston and Adam Wilk, will be part of the future along with hopefully giving the Twins an opportunity to win. Couple these youngsters with Santana, Berrios and Mejia and look at what could be as early as 2018. And, at this point, it's inexplicable to me that Mitch Garver is not in the big leagues. I get that Jason Castro is signed long-term. I understand the value that Chris Gimenez brings to a ball club. But Garver is probably better than either one of them overall as a catcher. He also can back up Joe Mauer at first base. He's played a little left field and while no one think he's going to be probably even average defensively in the outfield, his right-handed bat could platoon with someone. He also can DH against lefties and be a bat off the bench. He's shown power and plate discipline this year in AAA. It's just time. Dealing Chris Gimenez (who also is a free agent at season's end) and going with Garver isn't about throwing in the towel. It's about making the team better... now, and going forward. So this long-winded meandering may move in several directions. To try to summarize my thoughts a little, check the following: 1.) The Twins are not completely out of it and playing Oakland before the trade deadline maybe helps. The toughest part of their schedule is complete. 2.) This team should NOT be buyers right now, unless the move is such a steal that it's a no-brainer, and ideally the player can be around beyond 2017. 3.) Even if they get to the point of Selling, don't Sell just to Sell. Remember that guys like Ervin Santana and Brian Dozier can be part of the answer on the field, not just in trades. 4.) Gauge the market for your impending free agents (Kintzler, Garcia, Gimenez, Belisle, etc.) 5.) Even if they do "Sell" on a couple of players, they should not consider that throwing in the towel. There should be enough pride with both the veterans and those young players trying to make their mark in the game to keep pushing and trying to win every game. 6.) Trust your system. Instead of going to aged wonders and hoping, call up some top talents and hope. Realize that hope also includes MLB development for young players who you likely will be relying on starting in 2018. This includes Aaron Slegers, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, Jake Reed, John Curtiss and Mitch Garver. So, again, these opinions are all solely mine. I don't claim or pretend they are perfect. They are typed out without making notes, after a third tough, very late-night loss to the Dodgers. I apologize for spelling and grammar. I do not apology for the passion I have for the Minnesota Twins, and the hope that they are on the right path toward that sustainable success that we'd all like to see. View full article

Kepler was added to the 40 man roster at the same time as Polanco. Both spent 2013 in Cedar Rapids and had to be added after the season because they signed in July 2009. Those are the rules, so they were both out of options this year, having used options in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Yeah, it seems like this has been answered a lot, but the Twins had to add Polanco to the 40 man roster in November 2013 because he would have likely been lost in the Rule 5 draft that year. His option for 2014 was used when he went from MLB spring training to minor league camp. Same thing in 2015. So, they didn't lose anything by calling him up for those stints in 2014 or 2015. The Twins front office will NOT DFA Polanco... he's young, 24, has shown the ability to hit for average, take quality plate appearances and even show a little power. I'm sure they'll look beyond a two-month slump.

It hurts a lot, but it happens. They're obviously not trying to strike out.

Brad Steil is the minor league coordinator. It's his job to promote (or demote) players. Obviously he reports directly to the GM or CBO or both, and I'm certain they have discussed philosophies and strategies for making those decisions. He travels to the affiliates quite a bit and he obviously gets input from the coaching staffs for those teams. The GM/Front Office of the affiliates has absolutely nothing to do with baseball decisions. That's all up to the Twins, since they are their "property" and they pay them and such.

A lot has changed in a week. The Twins made a trade. And the Twins have fallen in the races for the American League Central and for the wild card. The team is now under .500 after a tough series, getting swept in Los Angeles, coupled with great play from Cleveland and Kansas City. They are 5.5 games back of Cleveland now, and four games behind second-place Kansas City. They are also four games back of Kansas City for the second wild card spot. The Rays are in between. The Twins are not out of it, but man, in one week they have gone from buyer to potentially selling. Image courtesy of Raj Mehta, USA Today A lot has changed in a week. The Twins made a trade. And the Twins have fallen in the races for the American League Central and for the wild card. The team is now under .500 after a tough series, getting swept in Los Angeles, coupled with great play from Cleveland and Kansas City. They are 5.5 games back of Cleveland now, and four games behind second-place Kansas City. They are also four games back of Kansas City for the second wild card spot. The Rays are in between. The Twins are not out of it, but man, in one week they have gone from buyer to potentially selling. After reviewing the National League teams last week, Nick reviewed the AL West teams yesterday. STANDINGS Boston Red Sox 56-47 New York Yankees 53-46 1.0 GB Tampa Bay Rays 53-49 2.5 GB Baltimore Orioles 48-53 7.0 GB Toronto Blue Jays 47-54 8.0 GB The Yankees are currently sitting in the first of two wild card positions, a half-game ahead of the Royals. The Rays are a half-game out of the second wild card spot. The Orioles are 4.5 games back, and the Blue Jays are 6.5 games back. THE BUYERS Unlike other divisions that we have highlighted, the AL East has three of their five teams which could fit into the buyers’ category. The Red Sox are already making moves. They released Pablo Sandoval, eating millions upon millions of dollars in salary. They called up top prospect Rafael Devers, and they traded a couple of prospects for former Twins infielder Eduardo Nunez. Last week, the Yankees made a big move, adding third baseman Todd Frazier and closer David Robertson from the White Sox. They are believed to be in serious talks with the A’s regarding Sonny Gray. The Rays don’t have the economic means to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees for high-priced talent, but they’ll certainly be on the phone a lot over the rest of the week. Also noteworthy, any rumors (real or imagined) a few weeks ago that Chris Archer might be available are certainly untrue now. As the Twins continue to fall behind Cleveland and Kansas City and are further out of the wild card race, the Twins could find interest in the likes of Ervin Santana, Brandon Kintzler and even Jaime Garcia in the AL East. THE SELLERS That leaves two teams that should fit into the sellers category, the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Orioles That the Orioles are only a handful of games under .500 is pretty impressive when you consider their starting pitching. Kevin Gausman is 7-7 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP. Wade Miley is 4-9 with a 5.69 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. Ubaldo Jimenez is 4-6 with a 7.19 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. Chris Tillman is 1-5 with a 7.01 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP. My guess is any of those pitchers would be available. Gausman, the #3 overall pick in the 2012 draft, would cost quite a bit and he would be intriguing in the long-term. The other three could be had for very little. The Orioles do have a couple of intriguing relievers. 31-year-old Brad Brach has been very good in the late innings. In 43.1 innings, he has a 2.70 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. He’s got 46 strikeouts over 43.1 innings. Side-winding Darren O’Day is also likely available. Though he’s posting a 4.67 ERA over 34.2 innings, he has 43 strikeouts. Zach Britton has missed most of the season. He was the best reliever in baseball a year ago, but he’s only had limited time since returning and hasn’t yet returned to dominance. The Blue Jays The Jays got off to a terrible start. Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitski have missed significant time with injury. They lost Edwin Encarnacion to Cleveland and Jose Bautista got off to a miserable start. Bautista might be of interest since he’s come on a bit and his contract is up after the season. The name that Toronto should be throwing out is 1B Justin Smoak who, frankly, hasn’t been very good until this year when he has become a huge power hitter. Sell high. As it relates to the Twins and their need for pitching, the Jays probably aren’t a likely partner. They do, however, have Marcus Stroman who is one of those pitchers that has incredible talent and years of team control remaining. He’s the kind of guy that a team will be willing to give up a lot for, a couple of high-ranking prospects and more. Francisco Liriano hasn’t been particularly good (5.99 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), but he’s rumored to be of interest for the Royals. Marco Estrada (4-7, 5.52 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) does have 118 strikeouts in 109.1 innings. He could be intriguing. J.A. Happ is 3-7 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He’s pretty Jaime Garcia-like. SUMMARY As noted, the Twins have gone from buyer to we’ll-see, and there’s a chance they could be sellers by the deadline on Monday. That change likely means that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will not go overboard in terms of what they’d be willing to give up right now. However, if they still are buyers, there are some players, particularly a few bullpen guys, who the Twins could have some interest in acquiring. View full article

I mean, with two outs, to score you have to get a hit... Aren't the odds of that generally going to be about 1 in 4 or maybe 3 in 10? Striking out with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs hurts a lot... getting out with two outs doesn't bother me.

I mean, a lot of the college pitchers drafted were starters in college and can be stretched out. They have 35-man rosters, so they'll be fine.

With Eduardo Del Rosario promoted to Ft. Myers today (likely taking the spot of Cody Stashak)... I'd guess Charlie Barnes would be the one to move up to Cedar Rapids.

From Brainerd, went to St. Cloud State for three years, then Mayville State. Was drafted by the Brewers, but never offered a deal. Went indy leagues. Twins signed him and he's dominated three levels now. He throws mid-90s. That's the main thing. But he's got a slider too.

Tonkin has a bigger fastball, and a better slider. He "looks" more like a prospect.

If Molitor told the ump Belisle for Rosario, and yet the ump doesn't notice that Pressly is coming in that Polanco and not Rosario is coming out... something weird happened. No one appears to be innocent in this. Guilt can go all around.

All we have to go on is Molitor's word, and I have no reason to believe he's making something up. We haven't heard from the ump or the league. We haven't heard any audio from that conversation. Until we know what was said specifically. It was just such an obvious double-switch that it's hard to understand how it went so strange.

He's a 19th round pick from Coastal Carolina... so sure, they could move him up to Cedar Rapids and he'd probably be alright.

Rucinski is 28. Spent some time with the Angels in 2014 and 2015. Was in AAA for the Cubs in 2016. Got a little time with the Twins this year. Obviuosly he's a solid AAA pitcher who could be OK in the big leagues in the right role and given some time/patience.

No surprise to read Molitor bashers using this as ammunition. I wish the umpire had to talk about what happened. WE got the confused explanation from Roberts, and I thought a pretty clear explanation from Molitor. I thought the umpires handled it horribly.

While I generally agree that the team hasn't been great in those situations, the inning you reference (When Berrios and Dozier struck out), Zack Granite came through with a two-out RBI single.

For the first time since late April, the Minnesota Twins are a game below .500 (49-50). In one of the longest games in major league history (OK, not really, it just seemed like it), the Dodgers post a second win against the Twins. Dodgers starting pitcher Kenta Maeda took about a month-and-a-half between pitches. Then in the sixth inning, one of the strangest 20+ minute delays in my lifetime kept the game going even longer. On Wednesday, the Twins will attempt to avoid being swept by putting Ervin Santana on the mound. Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today For the first time since late April, the Minnesota Twins are a game below .500 (49-50). In one of the longest games in major league history (OK, not really, it just seemed like it), the Dodgers post a second win against the Twins. Dodgers starting pitcher Kenta Maeda took about a month-and-a-half between pitches. Then in the sixth inning, one of the strangest 20+ minute delays in my lifetime kept the game going even longer. On Wednesday, the Twins will attempt to avoid being swept by putting Ervin Santana on the mound. Before the game even started, things were a bit strange for the Twins. Less than an hour before game time, Miguel Sano was scratched from the lineup due to his aggravated wrist (from Monday night’s hit-by-pitch). He got x-rays, and they were negative, which of course is positive. Eduardo Escobar was going to hit sixth and play shortstop. Instead, he moved to third base and batted cleanup. Jorge Polanco played shortstop. That was the easy lineup construction situation of this game. Win Expectancy (via fangraphs) Jose Berrios started for the Twins and he was solid early. He began the game with three shutout innings. He used his fastball at a variety of speeds, from 92 to 97. He also had a very sharp curveball again, as evidenced by this 1st-inning pitch to Corey Seager: https://twitter.com/cjzero/status/890036001279811584 Top Three Twins (by Win Expectancy) Zack Granite (.078) - 1-4, RBI 1B Joe Mauer (.060) - 1-2, 2 BB Jason Castro (.026) - 1-4 Zack Granite gave the Twins a 1-0 lead with an RBI single in the 3rd inning. However, in the fourth inning, the Dodgers bats took over. They scored four runs on five hits off of Berrios. While he got through the inning, he was pinch hit for in the top of the fifth frame. Trevor Hildenberger pitched a scoreless fifth frame. He got one out in the sixth as well. However, that’s when things went strange. Paul Molitor came out to talk to the umpire and tell him he was making a double-switch. He had Ryan Pressly come in to the game to take Hildenberger’s spot as pitcher. He had Ehire Adrianza come in to play shortstop, replacing Jorge Polanco. Of course, Adrianza would bat in the pitcher’s spot in the double switch. Seemed simple enough. As Molitor explained, the umpire somehow heard that Belisle was coming in for Rosario. Molitor thought that he explained it (Pressly for Polanco) correctly. Molitor took the blame for the miscommunication, though I certainly don't think he needs to. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/890094677990551553 But after Pressly threw one pitch, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts came out to ask the umpires about the double switch. Confusion ensued. The umps talked to Roberts. Then went and talked to Molitor. Then Roberts again. Then they called the offices in New York where a rules interpretation was done. Over 20 minutes later, Polanco needed to stay in the game and Adrianza went to left field with Eddie Rosario coming up. That meant that the pitcher’s spot in the lineup would come up two spots earlier. Roberts explained following the game that part of the concern was that Jorge Polanco had been taken out of the game for the first pitch after Pressly came in. He noted that apparently there is a re-entry rule that allowed Polanco to re-enter the game at shortstop when Adrianza went out to left field instead, removing the hot-hitting Eddie Rosario. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/890092125345525761 Of course, Roberts kept saying Escobar, which was wrong, and probably adds to the confusion. After the 20+ minute delay, Pressly served up three straight hits to give the Dodgers two additional runs of offense. They didn’t need it, but it gave them the final 6-2 win. AL Central Cleveland won late on an Edwin Encarnacion grand slam. Earlier in the evening, the Royals topped the Tigers. The White Sox lost to the Cubs. The Twins came into their Tuesday night game at Dodgers Stadium with a .500 record and… … Cleveland 52-45 .536 --- Kansas City 52-47 .525 1.0 TWINS 49-50 .495 4.0 Detroit 45-54 .455 7.0 Chicago 39-58 .402 8.0 Bullpen Usage Trevor Hildenberger, Ryan Pressly and Alan Busenitz worked out of the Twins bullpen on Tuesday night. Here is a look at which relievers may be available on Wednesday night. What’s Next? The Twins and Dodgers will finish their three-game series on Wednesday night (9:10 central time). It will be Ervin Santana (1-0, 5.40 ERA) facing right-hander Brock Stewart (0-0, 0.00 ERA). Ervin Santana is coming off his worst start of the season. On Friday night, the All- Star gave up five runs and needed 95 pitches in just 3.1 innings against the Tigers. He gave up two homers in the game as well. In his one July start before the All-Star Game, he gave up two runs in nine innings. In his first post-All Star Game start, he gave up just two runs in six innings, but he walked five. Santana will look to get the Twins back on track. Lefty Alex Wood, who is 11-1 so far this season for the Dodgers, was scheduled to start on Wednesday. Instead, right-hander Brock Stewart will make his first start for the Dodgers this season. He has worked 13 innings over six appearances this season out of the bullpen. Last year, he made seven appearances, including five starts for the big league club. Stewart was a name mentioned in the offseason when there were approximately 13.2 million Brian Dozier-to-the-Dodgers rumors. View full article

Curtiss moved up three levels in about 15 months... Not sure that's exactly slow.

Alex Robinson is definitely the prospect of the two. No question about it. But what made him so successful in Cedar Rapids this year was his ability to generally throw strikes (at 96-99)... The night you saw, he walked three batters. In his three Miracle appearances before that night, he had 0 walks and 10 strikeouts in 5 innings. Now he's got 3 walks and 12 strikeouts in 6 innings. It's the danger of small sample size.

I'm 100% with you on Javier, Diaz and Graterol... And Palacios and probably Arraez... But I gotta ask why so high on Rainis Silva?? I was kind of surprised he wasn't released before the short-seasons started...

Mayo and I spent a long time chatting about Graterol. I told him when I put him at like #14 after last season, I got beat up in the comments.His reports and my reports lined up pretty well to create would could be a really, really good pitcher. Now time will tell.