Seth Stohs

I think Lance Lynn might be slightly better than McHugh. I'm just throwing out a trade candidate, not saying they should or shouldn't do it. I think adding him would make the Twins better. I also think they are capable of doing multiple moves (trade and free agent, two trades, two free agents, whatever). I think McHugh is worth having the discussion with Houston and seeing what that cost might be.

Do we think they're going to surpass Houston's rotation? Cuz they aren't, even with Archer. I just think that McHugh makes the Twins better.

Our individual rankings: Seth (9), Nick (7), Cody (12), Tom (12).

That's why they're 8-13 probably. And, I'm sure that most team's prospects after 6-8 are crap shoots.

It's probably not "normal", though it's also probably not normal for a team to have 5 position players under 26 who already have 200+ MLB games under their belt too. It'd be interesting to see how a "typical" top 10 list looks in terms of where players are.

You might have heard the news already, but Yu Darvish followed Chris Gimenez and signed with the Chicago Cubs. There are many contingencies. But at this point, a trade may make more sense for the Twins than signing any of the remaining free agents. There are several trade targets that should be considered. Today, we consider Astros right-hander Collin McHugh. There are still the bigger named free agents from this year’s class, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. Signing any of them would cost the Twins their third draft pick in 2018. There are the third-tier free agent pitchers like Jaime Garcia and Jason Vargas. They won’t cost a draft pick, but there is minimal upside. There are several other free agent starters that are back end of the rotation types at best. Image courtesy of Troy Taormina, USA Today You might have heard the news already, but Yu Darvish followed Chris Gimenez and signed with the Chicago Cubs. There are many contingencies. But at this point, a trade may make more sense for the Twins than signing any of the remaining free agents. There are several trade targets that should be considered. Today, we consider Astros right-hander Collin McHugh. There are still the bigger named free agents from this year’s class, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. Signing any of them would cost the Twins their third draft pick in 2018. There are the third-tier free agent pitchers like Jaime Garcia and Jason Vargas. They won’t cost a draft pick, but there is minimal upside. There are several other free agent starters that are back end of the rotation types at best. Background Collin McHugh made 15 big league appearances in 2012 and 2013 for the Mets and Rockies. Following that 2013 season, Colorado waived him and the Astros claimed him. As a 27-year-old rookie in 2014, he made 25 starts for Houston and went 11-9 with a 2.73 ERA. In 2015, he went 19-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 32 starts. In 2016, he made 33 starts and went 13-10 with a 4.34 ERA. Last year, he missed a lot of time due to a posterior impingement of his right elbow. He made 12 starts and went 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA. However, last August, the Astros acquired Justin Verlander and went on to win the World Series. Then this offseason, they traded for Gerrit Cole. Their rotation going into spring training is Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton. McHugh provides depth, but he would be outside of the rotation. McHugh is not a flamethrower. His average fastball is just over 90 mph. He throws a cutter in the mid-80s and also has a good slow curveball. McHugh will turn 31 in mid-June. Last week, he lost his arbitration hearing and will make $4.55 million in 2018. He will have one more year of arbitration in 2019, so acquiring him gives you two years of control. Risk As I see it, there are a few risks with McHugh. First and foremost, the elbow is a concern. I get that as of last season his injury had nothing to do with his ulnar collateral ligament, but sometimes pain in that area can lead to other issues in related structures. Reward Collin McHugh is not Chris Archer. Acquiring him would give the Twins a real solid #3 pitcher (if healthy). A top three of Santana, Berrios and McHugh is pretty solid. Kyle Gibson bumps down to the #4 starter and then you’ve got depth of young pitchers with varying levels of upside competing for the fifth spot in the rotation. That depth then moves down to Rochester where they continue to work to move their way up. Secondly, he provides a quality starter at likely two years and maybe $10-13 million. Despite not having big velocity, McHugh finds a way to miss bats. Over his four previous seasons, his K/9 numbers have been 9.1, 7.6, 8.6 and 8.8. Those numbers would be at the top of Twins starters in recent years. Potential Cost McHugh has two more years of team control, likely in the $10-13 million range. He doesn’t have a spot in the Astros starting rotation. The Astros have used a lot of minor leaguers in the last couple of years to acquire players like Verlander and Cole. They will likely want to acquire prospects for McHugh, but the haul for him should be far less than a trade for Chris Archer. In other words, the Twins should be able to pick any 6-8 prospects that they say are untouchable, and then the conversation can start. That would mean that the Twins may have to give up one quality prospect, but not a top 100 type of prospect. At that point, if I’m the Astros, I’m wanting quantity as much as quality. They should take advantage of the Twins minor league depth. Maybe they would want three prospects in the 16-30 range as opposed to the Twins #11 prospect alone. By comparison, acquiring Chris Archer is likely to cost a young major leaguer, two top five prospects and maybe two more prospects. But instead of getting a guy similar to Ervin Santana, you would be getting an absolute ace who is young and under team control for four more years for about $30 million. It’s an important distinction when comparing two potential trade targets. Is Collin McHugh a guy you think that the Twins should consider acquiring? View full article

He could keep developing as a starter, but I think he could be a real solid 7th inning kind of guy.

It does vary, but if they spent all of EST, they'd make one start a week, and build up to 5ish innings, so you're probably talking 40-50 tops... obviously less for relievers.

Our individual rankings for Graterol: Seth (7), Nick (9), Cody (8), TOM (SEVENTEEN)... Emphasis by me... Ha!

Love that response from Hocking... very detailed. Very nice!

The truck got to Ft. Myers today. Fun seeing the pictures on twitter of them unloading the bags and equipment and Hammond Stadium.

So was I... no idea why I typed 2016... Weird... It's been corrected now.

Last year at this time, there were five players from the 2011 draft still in the Twins minor league system. At the end of the 2017 season, they became minor league free agents if they were not on a 40-man roster. None of those five players remains in the Twins organization at this time. The 2012 draft has produced several major leaguers already. There are nine players from that draft who are still in the Twins organization. Let’s take a look at those players. Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily (photo of Mason Melotakis) Last year at this time, there were five players from the 2011 draft still in the Twins minor league system. At the end of the 2017 season, they became minor league free agents if they were not on a 40-man roster. None of those five players remains in the Twins organization at this time. The 2012 draft has produced several major leaguers already. There are nine players from that draft who are still in the Twins organization. Let’s take a look at those players. Players can become a minor league free agents after having played six full season of minor league ball, unless they are added to the 40-man roster. So it is fair to say that it is a big year for a handful of Twins minor leaguers. Let’s start by considering the players from the 2012 draft who are currently on the Twins 40-man roster. It was an impressive draft, despite the fact that injuries have really hurt several of the players. With the #2 overall pick, the Twins selected outfielder Byron Buxton. It hasn’t always been pretty, but Buxton broke out late in the 2017 season and won a Gold Glove and the Platinum Glove as the best defensive player in the big leagues. The Twins also received the 32nd overall pick because of losing Michael Cuddyer to free agency. With the pick, the Twins selected right-handed pitcher Jose Berrios. He debuted in 2016. He began 2017 in Rochester (in large part due to his participation in the WBC), but he came up soon and pitched well much of the season. The Twins received another supplemental draft pick, the 42nd pick, for having lost Jason Kubel to free agency. With that pick, they took right-hander Luke Bard from Georgia Tech. While he fought injuries the first several years of his career, he really took off in 2016 and then struck out a ton of batters between AA and AAA in 2017. He was selected by the Angels in the Rule 5 draft in December, but he could return to the Twins if he is not on the Angels big league roster all season. The Twins received an additional second -ound pick from the Rockies because of the Cuddyer signing. With the pick, they selected hard-throwing right-hander JT Chargois out of Rice University. He missed the 2013 and 2014 seasons. He worked back in 2015 and debuted with the Twins in 2016. Unfortunately, he missed the 2017 season as well. With their fifth-round pick, the Twins selected Chargois’s co-closer at Rice, Tyler Duffey. He came up in 2015 and was impressive in the rotation. In 2016, he struggled, and in 2017, he moved to the bullpen. Finally, in the 11th round, the Twins selected left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers. He worked his way up the system as a starter, but when the Twins had a need early in the 2016 season, they called Rogers up to work out of the bullpen. He pitched well as a rookie. He was tremendous in the first half of 2017, though he may have tired due to overuse in the second half. He may be the top left-hander in the Twins bullpen in 2018 and could learn more from Zack Duke. The Twins have had five players from their 2012 draft already play in the big leagues, which is remarkable. Clearly Buxton and Berrios are the stars, but Rogers, Chargois and Duffey have a chance to contribute for years to come too. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So while it would be great for these players to have big seasons in 2018 and force the Twins hand, doors could open up for them after the season via free agency, or they could choose to stay in the Twins organization. MASON MELOTAKIS The Twins first second-round pick was Melotakis, 63rd overall out of Northwestern State in Louisiana. The Twins gave him the opportunity to start, but in early 2014, he was moved to the bullpen. Following that season, he had Tommy John surgery and missed the 2015 season. He was added to the 40-man roster after the 2015 season. However, early in 2017, he was removed from the roster and cleared waivers. He split the 2017 season between Chattanooga and Rochester. He’ll likely begin 2018 with the Red Wings with the hopes of getting a shot to get added back to the 40-man roster and get to the big leagues. ZACK JONES The Twins foourth-round pick in 2012 out of San Jose State, Jones burst onto the season late that year when he was hitting triple digits in Beloit. Really since then Jones has spent more time on the disabled list than on the field. He’s had a variety of injuries in and around his shoulder. He was selected by the Brewers in the Rule 5 draft and went to spring training with Milwaukee in 2016. Unfortunately, he was hurt and had to rehab. After a couple of appearances with the Brewers AA team, he was returned to the Twins. He had shoulder surgery after the 2016 season and as he was set to return in 2017, he needed another surgery. When healthy, he’s got a big arm and a sharp slider. DJ BAXENDALE Baxendale was selected by the Twins in the 10th round out of the University of Arkansas after leading them to the College World Series. In less than a year, he was starting at AA Chattanooga. Things kind of plateaued for Baxendale there, and he fought some lingering injuries. But in 2016, he made the Southern League All-Star Game as a starter. He moved up to AAA and moved to the bullpen. He’s had some good success in that role. In 2017, he worked in a variety of roles from middle relief to long relief to making spot starts. ALEX MUREN Muren was the Twins 12th-round pick out of Cal State-Northridge. He put up great numbers in the lower levels despite a low strikeout rate. Unfortunately, he missed the 2016 season after having thoracic outlet surgery. He returned, but was limited some, in 2017. When on, Muren is a ground ball machine. Earlier, he would be brought on with runners on with the goal of getting a double play. In addition to the draft picks, a couple of players who signed as international free agents in 2012 will also become free agents. JHON ALVAREZ The Twins signed Alvarez out of Venezuela in July of 2012. He spent three seasons in the Dominican Summer League, and has spent the last two seasons in the Gulf Coast League. He did play one game for the Miracle in 2017 as well. RAINIS SILVA Like Alvarez, the Twins signed Silva in July of 2012, also out of Venezuela. A defense-first catcher, Silva played 11 games for the Kernels in 2015, and spent his 2016 in Cedar Rapids as well. As a 21-year-old in 2017, he played for Elizabethton, and he showed some offense. He hit .356/446/.446 (.892) for the E-Twins with four doubles, a triple and a homer. He will turn 22 right before Opening Day and should spend the year with a full-season affiliate. The Twins will hopefully have a tough decision to make on him. TODD VAN STEENSEL Finally, Australian Todd Van Steensel can finally become a minor league free agent following the 2018 season if he’s not added to the 40-man roster. The right-hander spent a year with the Phillies, and then a year with the Twins, and then he didn’t pitch for an affiliated team for a few years. He returned to the Twins in 2014 and pitched in Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. He spent all of 2015 with the Miracle as well and posted a 2.32 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 66 innings. For some reason, he went back to the MIracle for most of 2016 but ended the year with a handful of outings in Chattanooga. That’s where he spent the 2017 season where he posted a 1.38 ERA with 59 strikeouts in 58.2 innings. While he doesn’t show up on prospect lists, he continues to put up great numbers every year. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Obviously all of these guys are “prospects’ as they have yet to play in the big leagues. It’s a big year for each of them. Not only are they working for a big league opportunity with the Twins, but they will have another season to be monitored by scouts and coaching staffs from the other 29 organizations as well.. So what are your hopes or expectations for these guys? Will any of them get to the big leagues in 2018? Could any be found on the 40-man roster after the 2018 season? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOOKING BACK Levi Michael went back to Chattanooga before ending the season with a month in Rochester. He has not yet signed a 2018 contract. Travis Harrison wasn’t able to get the bat going and was released with about a month to go in the season. He has not yet signed a minor league contract. Dereck Rodriguez had another solid campaign, splitting the year between Ft. Myers and Chattanooga. He has signed a minor league deal with the San Francisco Giants. Jason Wheeler made his major league debut for the Twins in May but was DFAd and claimed by the Dodgers after pitching twice. Soon after, they DFAd him and he was claimed by the Orioles where he ended the season. After the season, he signed a one year deal with the Hanwha Eagles in Korea. David Hurlbut put together a full season at Rochester. Following the season, he signed a minor league deal with the Texas Rangers. View full article

Our rankings of Baddoo: Seth: (8), Nick (14), Cody (13), Tom (10).

Another Matt Lawton would be terrific, and that's probably a fair comp for now... Good on base skills, good speed and good power. I like it.

I'll be sure to take a bunch... Ha!

I should have posted this earlier... but here are where the four of us ranked these five players: Mitch Garver: Seth (16), Nick (11), Cody (15), Tom (15) LaMonte Wade: Seth (13), Nick (10), Cody (16), Tom (16) Lewin Diaz: Seth (11), Nick (18), Cody (10), Tom (13) Lewis Thorpe: Seth (12), Nick (13), Cody (11), Tom (14) Zack Littell: Seth (14), Nick (15), Cody (9), Tom (8) My quick thoughts: Garver's role may be as a backup, but his offense should be good enough that we could feel really good about him as a starter. Wade has a chance to be really good. He's got the approach, speed, defense.. And he absolutely has the power, it just hasn't shown up in games yet. His floor is probably 4th OF, but he can be a starter. Also, him getting a NRI this year says a lot too. Diaz has a chance. I know he's a first baseman. He's not fast. That's the only place he can play (besides DH), but I think he's got a ton of power potential that we haven't seen yet. We may not see it in 2018, but it's there. I also think he can be more than "just" a power hitter. Good swing to the whole field. Thorpe just needs to stay healthy and get innings. Probably starts in AA, but could get to AAA. I don't think he jumps to the Top 5 like some suggest, but he should be Top 8 or so next year. Littell can spin the ball, as Parker pointed out, and that's important. No one projects him to be a top-of-the-rotation type, but he can be a #3 maybe... and there's a ton of value in that!

According to Twins PR man Dustin Morse, Twins RHP Ervin Santana had surgery today on his right middle finger. He is expected to miss 10-12 weeks Here is the Tweet from Morse with more details. https://twitter.com/morsecode/status/961005480306008065

Agreed... but I do wonder if that is similar to other years. A couple of arms. An infielder. An outfielder and some catchers. And, they do have to fill a lot of spots in the upper levels, and the way to entice guys is the NRI.

If I had guessed, I would have guessed Kohn just because he was signed to the 2-year deal last year so he could recover from injury and get innings last year. I also would have guessed Brian Navarreto. Need a bunch of catchers, and he's as good as it gets behind the plate.

Answering for myself... I think he can be a terrific late-inning reliever... Which means he'll work 50-60 innings a year. A starter will hopefully go 150-200 innings. So, that's why I tend to rank relievers significantly lower. A year ago at this time, he was still a starter...

They'll say that Wilson is battling with Garver for the backup job, but those'll likely be just words. It's got to be Garver at this point. As for the infielders, Gordon's fairly close, and the other guys that they signed to minor league deals have big league time, some of them quite a bit as utility infielders. They'll be fine. Of these guys, I think Michael Kohn - if fully healthy - probably has the best shot to make the team.