Willihammer

The average xFIP- of all qualified relievers in 2014 is 92.0. The average xFIP- of qualified relievers who throw between 70% and 90% fastballs is 94.1 (n=25). Those with an average velocity above 95.0 mph (n=7) have an average xFIP- of 86.9. Those with an average FB velocity between 93.0 and 94.9 (n=8) have a xFIP- of 97.8. And those with an average FB velocity between 91 and 92.9 (n=6) have an average xFIP- of 101.6. As reliant as Pelfrey is on the fastball, its going to come down to the radar gun. 95+ or bust.

OK fair enough. Target Field's outfield is actually smaller than the Dome's. The point about the big scoreboard in RCF and the taller fences made me think: Are the Twins being unfairly penalized by UZR and the defensive metrics for all the balls the opposition hits off the scoreboard & fence?

The 00s Twins were able to achieve some success with Kubel and Cuddy plodding around in the corners. That was considered a hitters park. TF, in case anyone forgot, has the exact same dimensions. The left field power alley, for example, is still shorter than the ones in Cincinnati or Arlington. The right field alley is still shorter than the ones at the Cell in Chicago or Miller Park. And, most of us would agree, I think, that the OF defense improved after Schafer replaced Willingham, and again when Hicks was called up on Sept 2 and started spelling Parmelee/Arcia. However the BABIP and ERA has gone pretty much unchanged since that time. At some point we need to accept that the roster just isn't that athletic. But they can hit. Get the best hitters into the lineup, I say, and shave off the runs by positioning them better.

What is the current health status of Pelfrey? Guy has been off the radar since about May, or maybe I'm just not paying attention. Is anyone in the know?

He's not hitting as many fly balls as he did in the first half. This probably accounts for both the reduction in homers and the rise in BABIP. I don't know if its by design (coaching) or if its a result of being pitched differently. Possibly both. Personally I would like to see him return to the low average, patient, 40%+ fly ball batter he was in the first half. Hopefully he can make the adjustments to get back there.

21/24 strikes on the curveball. My guess is the only reason he has just 2 swining strikes was because not too many offered at it. Being able to throw that get me over pitch for strikes seems to be a key for Nolasco edit: Just checked brooksbaseball - he got 13 swings on it so only 8 non-swinging strikes. Fewer than I would have guessed.

Why not tell him to pitch from the stretch for the rest of the year, regardless of whether runners are on base? It was a problem for him in AAA too. He'll need to deal with it sooner or later, and what better time than now?

Night and day (positive) compared to the last time Cederstrom umpired behind Pinto.

Coupla thoughts. On a KTWIN pregame show last week, Chris Attebery reported that Gardy said he spoke to Gary Cederstrom after he umpired the previous night's game in which Pinto caught. Attebery said Gardy said Cederstrom said that "it was like night and day" - that is, Pinto's movement behind the plate and Cederstrom's ability to see by him and call balls and strikes. For whatever that's worth. Arcia might be able to improve his first step with more reps but he's just not very athletic. He will need to improve his hitting to the point where he's a well above average bat to justify keeping him out there. Hicks has looked at times, lost in CF. Santana has made a few gaffs too but hasn't looked too out of place. IMO its not clear one is better than the other, and UZR says they're both equally lousy CFers in small samples. So hoping for one or the other to improve might be a more realistic strategy for Santana, IMO, because Hicks has played OF for years and Santana hasn't. Add in the fact that Santana has been an absolute spark plug and he deserves to hold the CF job IMO. Schafer is a fun player to watch. He seems to catch everything in LF and I'm pretty confident that given a large enough sample, the statistics would back that up. He's LHB might be a good platoon or semi-platoon with Hicks or another RH OFer (Pinto?) Pinto... the Twins need to get him at-bats everyday. Has Plouffe's glove improved enough to move back to SS? Can Pinto take 3rd? Can Mauer move to 3rd? Is Sano go ing to take 3rd? I don't know for sure. But the Twins have to get creative and find a way to get some value out of this logjam of talent, and not let any of these guys rot on the bench.

I wonder why this hasn't gotten more traction since so many people just seem to want "fire." And as you say, with Ozzie there is the bonus of being (cough) "bi-lingual," or at least, 1 3/4 linqual.

Its hard to peek inside the workings of the team but we've heard positive things about Molitor and Bruno from players about specific coaching eg. Dozier citing Molitor in coaching him with base stealing, Plouffe saying Molitor helped him with his footwork on defense, the turnaround of Dozier last year after working with Bruno, the overall improvement of the team in drawing walks and scoring runs, etc. I wonder how feasible it would be to replace the manager and the pitching coach (and other?) with outsiders, while retaining some of the current staff - Molitor and Bruno (others?), specifically. It would be a shame to throw out the baby with the bathwater.

Oh you mean the City Express? http://images.dealerpro.net/images/uploads/organizations/534/markup/express1.jpg Look at those rims! Bling baby!

In the Sept 3 game, Marnie talked about Arcia and Bruno hitting off a tee, trying to stay inside the pitch. He hit a double to left that game too, which was like his 9th hit to LF all year.

Do you think the Twins will be paying big arbitration raises to Plouffe long after Sano's up? There is Gibson in 2017, that could push payroll over 100 million, assuming he stays healthy and relatively productive. Of course by 2017 the Twins are going to be good, right? Beisdes those two, who am I missing? http://twinsdaily.com/roster-payroll.html

Fair enough, there will be 17-18 guys on the 25 man who will get paid the minimum plus whatever COLA raise they get. So I'm not accounting for ~$10m of payroll. Add $10 to the projected payroll, as taken from the Payroll page here on TD, add a 8/175m contract every year for the next four years, and here's what the 25-man financial picture looks like. 2014 $87,333,898 2015 $92,675,000 2016 $109,250,000 2017 $88,750,000 2018 $98,625,000 2019 $65,625,000 2020 $65,625,000 2021 $65,625,000 2022 $65,625,000 edit: Plus, again, whatever arb raises there are (Plouffe and - gasp - Escobar, Schafer, etc)

They Twins could ink one 8 year/175m contract for the next 4 straight offseasons and never crack 100m in payroll (this is before accounting for arb raises, but besides Plouffe, who is due for a big raise?) They can do both.

Nolasco will be off the books after 2017 and Mauer the year after. For only 3 years would they all be on the books at the same time as a 3rd or 4th FA signing. They only make up a such a large proportion of the budget because they don't have anyone else to pay, and won't have anyone else to pay for many years yet.

He got back to his changeup last night, throwing a few to right handed batters too, and turned off some really sharp breaking pitches. He looked so good for the first three innings...

Santana has turned a corner since he refined his changeup. I think we're talking 20+/yr and 5+ years for Santana, Shields, Scherzer, and Lester.

Only Mauer and Nolasco are long term commitments. There is a financial window right now to make a big move. W-L or even position should not be a concern at all IMO

Yeah I'm not in love with too many in the bullpen, and I haven't been impressed by Tonkin from what we've seen of him. Maybe Guerra or Oliveros can fill a role, and Pelfrey or whoever is shoved out of the rotation but there will be 1-2 open spots by my math.

14 games way back in 2006

Final offer - Mauer to LF, Pinto to 1B, Vargas to DH. Defensive improvement in LF, 1B, while getting around the backup catcher / DH problem.

I'm not sure that's true.

I think this makes the most sense, but I think the Twins will be reluctant to do it, but I'm not sure why.