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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    I do think the criticisms of Pohlads are very overstated and lack context (of stadium reality pre Target Field or being in a rebuild the last several years), and I do expect them to spend some actual money this offseason, but I have a hard time calling #1 a myth until it actually happens.
  2. drjim
    Seth for executive of the year!
  3. drjim
    I would say any reliever on this list that was healthy and didn't make it on the 25 man this season is probably ok to leave unprotected. I would keep Stewart one more year though.
  4. drjim
    Why didn't it make sense to have him break camp as a starter and get the first crack at it last year?
  5. drjim
    What is impressive is the diverse ways he acquired talent - #1 pick, rule 5, 3rd rounder turned mvp, 3rd piece of a trade. Does show that on a basic level - draft well, a few good trades, and a little luck with other acquisition methods, will play no matter who is in charge. On the flip side, a couple of terrible trades, some mediocre drafts, and some bad injury luck, and you have half a decade in the wilderness like that.
  6. drjim
    Yes Yes, nowhere near a lock Don't think they get anything to make it worth it Yes Absolutely, malpractice to not acquire someone
  7. drjim
    It would be nice if he made 30 starts in a season before we got too excited. (Admittedly, not his fault how he was used in 2015). I echo the other thoughts that it is very unlikely he is ready for opening day, and that the Twins should plan on receiving nothing from him this season. There is no planning paradox, only a potential nice bonus if he fully recovers and can contribute at some point this season.
  8. drjim
    Twins have definitely had the opportunity. 2012 was a really good draft for the Twins, but they've had some duds. On anther note, the 3 #1s produced Correa and Bregman (as compensation for not signing Aiken). That is two cornerstones. Twins at least nailed their #2, and look OK on the #1 so far.
  9. drjim
    The Astros puked up a #1 pick too, so not just the Twins blowing high picks. What the Astros did really well compared to the Ryan Twins was consistently producing good whole drafts and working the entire draft pool. Even though the Astros made a boatload of trades as they were tearing down, they didn't really accumulate a ton of value, and the few times they did, it was usually from the third piece, not the primary return. The current front office inherited some core pieces (Altuve/Springer/Keuchel), drafted well (Correa/Bregman/McCullers), added some under the radar guys, were aggressive with adding mlbers via trade when they were competitive, and filled in the final gaps with some short year free agents. Very smart, very replicable model, even if the Twins (hopefully) won't have the same opportunity to draft as high for a while.
  10. drjim
    Very likely there is an "update" to defensive metrics in the future that smooths some of this out.
  11. drjim
    Jimmy Nelson? They guy who had one pop up season and is about to miss most (or all) of 2018? The premise is all wrong anyways. They aren't trading for those guys without weakening the everyday lineup and it ignores other ways that they can strengthen the overall roster.
  12. drjim
    I think you can make an argument just based on innings played, amd based on the volatility of defensive metrics, giving some weight to previous seasons is not egregious. Plus, there is a decent chance that Mauer ended up 4th. Is it really an outrageous snub to.be 4th instead of 3rd?
  13. drjim
    That may work in really small samples, but a lack of command of a fastball will allow hitters to sit offspeed. The reason Hill, McCullers, etc are effective is that they have credible fastballs. I think the priority is commanding a fastball first as a skill, not always a first pitch. I don't think a mlb pitcher can last longterm without doing this.
  14. drjim
    Rich Hill and the Houston staff don't think it's important to command the zone with the fastball?
  15. drjim
    It's the right strategy this offseason. But I'm skeptical they go the years needed to land Darvish.
  16. drjim
    I understand it's the only data we have at the moment, but I suspect people are getting a little worked up about the top 3 when the winners will probably shake out in a perfectly acceptable manner.
  17. drjim
    I think you were light on Buxton, but he seems like he could be signable this offseason if the price is right. Polanco/Kepler/Rosario/Berrios would probably sign if the Twins are interested (or at least they should). Don't really see a path with Sano.
  18. drjim
    Mauer should probably be there ahead of Hosmer, but I wonder if innings played would say otherwise. Mauer 1040.2 innings Moreland 1170 innings Santana 1225.2 innings Hosmer 1338 innings Mauer is more than 14 full games behind the next guy on the list, and 33 games behind Hosmer. That does matter.
  19. drjim
    Don't think they'd sign Martinez unless they were also planning on moving Kepler or Rosario (presumedly for pitching). Could be another way to upgrade this offseason.
  20. drjim
    My understanding is that if you get an A one year you can only get a B the next year (and vice versa). Not the easiest rules to track.
  21. drjim
    I would agree. Seems they would lose a Competitive B pick (between 2nd and 3rd round) or a 3rd rounder (if they don't get a Competitive B pick). I would hope they don't find that cost prohibitive to add a much needed starter.
  22. drjim
    TL;DR - Twins would give up their 3rd best pick if they sign a QO free agent.
  23. drjim
    This is a good primer on the QO: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/2017-qualifying-offer-expected-to-be-worth-roughly-18mm.html I could get on board with Cobb, 4/56 strikes me as palatable for the Twins right now, could have some upside. 1 decent sized 4 year deal for a free agent pitcher really fits their need and payroll structure well.
  24. drjim
    I just don't see them going 6-7 years at big money for a pitcher. Just not especially realistic at their revenue/payroll levels. Much more likely to go for 3-4 year deals like Ryan has done. Top of the rotation guys need to come via trade or internal development.
  25. drjim
    I'm not sure that's fully known yet. Franchises act differently when they are close to a championship vs. coming off 59 wins, for example.
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