I wouldn't say it's a crapshoot, but it is an extremely expensive and risky undertaking. No one, so far as I can see, is denying that. But that's the price to both add and retain talent. Was Mauer riskless and cheap? I sure hope, if you have your hand up right now complaining about the price of pitching, that you were doing the same with him. And if you weren't - you're a hypocrite. If you were - then what exactly do you want? All 6-years-and-under-service-time guys on your team? It takes money to retain and add players and that comes with risk. Also, buying arb years and FA is only different because of the dollar figures, the risk remains the same. Plenty of guys flame out for all kinds of reasons at all stages of their careers. Your point that the team has more intimate knowledge of a player to reduce risk just doesn't fly. There may be some marginal level of knowledge a team has taht is more than a FA pursuer, but scouting and physicals grab the vast majority of it. Afterall, if the Twins had such intimate knowledge over the last 6-10 years they'd have dealt Liriano after 10 starts, never even considered offering Johan a contract, dealt Nathan before his Tommy John, etc. Injuries/the human body are a pretty strong variable, to assert just being around a guy significantly reduces your risk because of knowledge of that just seems to be another hollow argument of convenience. It fits with half the posts in this thread, but that doesn't make it true.