FrodaddyG

Define "reasonable replacements"? For better or worse, Revere and Span were two of the Twins' best hitters last year. Those ABs will now be going to less-known quantities. As I stated in a much more thorough post elsewhere, there will be an awful lot (likely thousands) of ABs going to either proven-poor hitters or complete question marks. Without hitting on huge years from all of the established MLB-level hitters on the roster, it's going to be awfully hard to even maintain the middle of the pack offense they had last year, before their two primary table setters were dealt.

I can't wait for the mid-season headlines like "Will Correia's four straight <4 IP starts leave gas in his tank for the end of the year?"

The infield defense could be decent or terrible. Plouffe may settle in and get better at third, but given his history elsewhere on the infield, he could just as easily be a trainwreck. Florimon, Escobar, Carroll all could be acceptable, but they aren't really "upgrades", seeing as they represent the majority of what the infield was running out there the end of last year. They just are what they are, and what you got the last few months of last year (which was neither great nor terrible on defense) is probably what you'll get this year, unless Carroll's age finally caught up to him. Morneau should be fine at first, but that's easily the least important aspect of the discussion. As for the lineup, I don't think there's any way to expect any kind of upgrade. Willingham is likely due for some kind of regression. It may be small, but he had a career year last year, and it would be hard to expect those numbers again. Mauer should do Mauer things. Morneau could improve back towards his All Star numbers which would help. The problems arise when you consider that you are going to be giving a couple thousand ABs to these three groups: Black holes like Butera, Florimon, and Escobar. Guys who need to stay on the MLB roster and prove their role as part of the long-term plan like Mastro, Parmelee, and Plouffe. Young guys like Hicks, Benson, or Arcia, depending on who is up and playing at any given point in the year. Now, the last two groups could be acceptable, or could completely Plouffe the bed. It likely lies somewhere in the middle, with group 2 being the more likely to hold their own at the dish. Group 3 could also be decent, but some serious struggles are to be expected if this is the first go-round for Hicks/Arcia, or the first long-term run with the MLB club for Benson. When this much of the roster is made up of unproven or proven-to-be-poor-offensively players, it's hard to think the smart money lies with betting on improvement in the lineup.

No, but the current GM was still involved in an advisory capacity at the time, and no doubt had a fair input into that decision as it was happening. Smith absolutely deserves the blame for the final calls, but it isn't like Ryan was in a coma during his tenure. He was still around and acting as a "senior advisor", which would lead me to surmise that he was giving a fair portion of the "advice" that Smith got for many of the less-than-loved moves during his run of ineptitude.

What can I say? The man despises baseball.

But ones that are acceptable both offensively and defensively are readily available for the low, low price of one Jim Hoey!

"That five would be far better than anything the Twins offered up as a rotation the past two seasons." And the next time the dog craps on the carpet it might be a solid turd instead of diarrhea. Doesn't make it a good or acceptable situation.

Can't wait until Guzman gets inducted down the line. I've missed his scowl ever since he left the team and started his non-profit organization that paves over baseball fields in the Dominican.

From the article: "Certainly Terry in his heart is an evaluator, so he evaluates a player and then equates a dollar number that he thinks that player is," president Dave St. Peter said. "And he's very disciplined with that approach, as is the balance of our baseball staff. And I think that's one of the reasons we've been able to be successful with far less payroll (in the past). Terry understands that he has some flexibility, and I can tell you, organizationally, I think we're very comfortable with where we're at in terms of that process." This seems like it's pretty much in line with the "not overpaying" based on Ryan's value determination of a player. Now he just needs to update the value chart he's been working off of since 1997.

When you have guys like Carl "What do you mean 'holding' a baserunner" Pavano on the mound the last few years, it's probably more than a little frustrating when every runner gets a 4 step headstart on every steal attempt.

"Hi. I was paid $4M a year by the Twins as recently as 3 seasons ago."

So years down the road, when FA prices have continued on a severe upward trend which is about to be bumped even more by an across-the-board influx of TV money, the guy who has spent the last two decades not willing to pay market value will suddenly completely change his stance and begin throwing money around. Does your gut have any stocks I should get in on? (By which I mean avoid like the plague.)

The thing is, Ryan isn't "outside the box". It's the same box he's been in for close to 20 years. And having two "Saber guys" isn't a huge paradigm shift. Neither is drafting hard throwing pitchers. (The past handful of drafts have been peppered with those kind of guys in the first 10 rounds.) Ryan will get his few years, no question, but the process so far has been entirely the "tearing down" part without a whole lot of hope that a serious "building up" phase is anywhere close.

There's nothing any individual fan can do to change this. The FO needs to have a shift somewhere, and maybe it ends up being in an entirely different direction from Ryan. The man has been the GM for the better part of the last 2 decades. Maybe another losing season followed by dropping attendance pushes them to do something else. Maybe the fact that they're still going to be making money regardless of how bad attendance gets means they don't care and nothing changes. They've been devoutly loyal to Ryan through the worst of times, but at least then they had the Metrodome to blame their poorer finances on. That excuse is gone, but the outlook is now as poor in the short-to-mid term as those mid-to-late-90's teams. Maybe a new voice and approach would help at the top, but it seems that as long as the team is running in the black, the Pohlads are probably just fine taking the money to the bank and letting the status quo reign. No individual fan can change that.

Money is the best way to get free agents ANYWHERE. It isn't just "cold weather" (since the baseball season falls smack in the middle of the best time of year, Minnesota-weather-wise) that is keeping guys away. I mean, guys sign to play in Texas when it's over 95 degrees virtually the entire months of July and August. There's always going to be defining factors for any given player, but the problem that many here are pointing out is that Ryan still seems to work off a Metrodome mentality when it comes to his budget. He's so concerned with not paying what he considers "too much" that he's not realizing that what he considers "too much" is where the market is just at these days. "$9M a year for a pitcher? That's what I was paying Brad Radke to be our ace just 10 years ago! It's outrageous!" Then he somehow outrageously gives $10M over multiple years to a dumpster-dive like Correia (whom they for some reason overvalued early in the signing period), and let equal to possibly better players go elsewhere for less money and/or years. When the Twins turned it around in the early 2000's, they caught lightning in a bottle when half a dozen guys all matured and came up at the same time. From the late 90's to early 2000's, guys like Doug, AJ, Koskie, Hunter, Jacque, Guzman, Rivas, and Ortiz were all basically forced into roles due to the lack of any other options, and they played well enough that the team could eventually be competitive. The chances of having to play that many young guys and all of them holding their own again is very slim. (And the upper levels of the minors aren't exactly busting with non-outfield position prospects that are screaming out for rapid advancement.) With the state of the roster right now, the team for 2014 could basically be Mauer, with prospects everywhere else in the lineup. Add to that a very young pitching staff, and that's a whole lot of dice rolls you're hoping to not crap out on coming off of what will likely be three pretty miserable seasons in a row. Now, there can be some spots that look bright going through 2013. Hopefully Hicks comes up at some point and holds his own at the plate. He's a premium defender, so if he can man CF and not be disgraceful at the plate, that's a huge building block. Ideally, at least one of Meyer or May looks solid enough in the high minors to give some hope that we get one guy that looks like a #3 or better in 2014 and beyond. Gibson rebounding from injury and throwing a decent 125 IP would be a bright spot as well. But the reality is, there are still a lot of questionably talented players who will be getting a lot of IP and a lot of PAs this coming season. There's good reason to be plenty skeptical, and pinning every hope for improvement on "the farm system" the way Ryan seems to be doing doesn't give a whole lot of reason to get your hopes up for at least a few more years. At some point, the FO needs to accept that Ryan's idea of "overpaying" isn't overpaying, it's where the market is and make him adjust accordingly or find someone else who will. If they're sitting at a $50M payroll next offseason and the only building blocks still being brought in are Correia-level roster filler or fliers on guys coming off injuries, then something drastic needs to be done to shake up the FO and get the franchise to be a player for actual, useful free agents. The farm system just isn't going to be providing an entire effective 25-man roster around Mauer anytime soon, or even by the end of his gargantuan contract.

I expect no less from the two of you. (But the social work thing wouldn't be entirely nonsensical, either.)

And none of them are part of the Twins, so your using the statement (and I quote) " I don't want band aid fixes for the next 3 years, because we have too many declining vets with higher than deserved contracts that we are tied to." is preposterous. After this season the Twins will be on the hook for (roughly, without looking up the exact figures right now) $50M, if not less, depending on if guys like Willingham get moved before 2014. For a team whose budget could likely sit comfortably at twice that amount, it has all the signs of a piss-poor effort to put together a competitive product after talking a good game about the new stadium finally putting them in the revenue bracket where they could make the next step forward for the franchise.

Is this "champion of the lesser poster" thing that appears to be happening the beginning of some kind of advanced degree in social work?

Forrest Gump was a good-natured person. Doesn't mean I would have to hold his take on things in an equal regard to everyone else.

Go ahead and add "Why are you being mean?" to "why did you call out my stupidity?"

I'm not one to feel bad for someone who may have their feelings hurt because they state something completely stupid and then have that stupidity pointed out. If they continue to post similarly, then the responses will remain similar. If they bring something more substantial to the table, the response will change in kind. I've seen it happen before, and would imagine it's not impossible that it would happen again. I've known many of these posters for many years, some upwards of a decade, and snarky responses (good natured, playful, or otherwise) is part of their/our makeup. The ones I've known come from a board that had a relatively high level of discourse on most topics, and yes, we can be snippy when some responses fall into the Dickbert-esque soundbite level. There will always be a variety of opinions, but when one side tries to throw out facts, and the other counters with things like "give me a team of Nick Puntos any day of the week, he just knows how to play ball!" (just a hypothetical example) it can be frustrating. Snark is a large portion of this group's natural response to something incredibly vague and mindless being used as a counterpoint to specifics in a discussion. If one half of the discussion doesn't seem to want to make an effort to give a response worth being taken seriously, then the other half probably won't respond with any kind of seriousness.

No. The Twins have one. It's Mauer. And he isn't necessarily in the "decline" phase of his career just yet, but he's the only one with a significant contract that carries him beyond 2014. That is nowhere near "too many" long term deals. Jesus Christ.

No, just the folks you're claiming are being "trolled" by having the inanity of their statements called out. God forbid anyone feel the need to speak against mindless drivel in what could be perceived as a "not nice" way. Sometimes the truth is just blunt and unfortunate.

The number of thin-skinned, easily offended folks on the board are definitely a huge draw to newcomers though. Quite a selling point.

The problem with his logic is, you also can't "fix" a team solely through your farm system. The good teams tend to have strong returns on both fronts. They draft well for a solid core of a team, and spend some smart money on the market to supplement their roster holes. Ryan seems content on punting the entire FA aspect of the equation, despite having numerous gaping holes, primarily in the rotation and middle infield. With little help on the near horizon for either of those situations, a little aggression on the free agent front may be the only near-to-mid term way to address them, even if it's with mediocre players that serve as upgrades to the dreck that's been manning the spots in recent years. Build exclusively one-dimensionally, and you get the Royals of the past decade, with always a bunch of prospects "on the verge of breaking out" but never enough to field a competitive team. And then, as soon as another group comes up, the older ones have established themselves and priced their way out of town. Ryan, or anyone trying to defend his inactivity, can claim this was a "weak crop" of FA this year, but does anyone have faith in Ryan making a splash in a "better crop" next year or any year going forward? Good players command more money in the first place, and with revenues going up across the board next year it will likely only add to the prices players will be seeking on the open market. When a GM is notoriously against "overpaying" for free agents, then he's probably not going to be interested in delving into a market which will be rapidly accelerating itself beyond what he considers "fair pricing". We're not in the "Holy cow, Kirby Puckett is making a million dollars a year!" days anymore, much to Ryan's chagrin. Values go up every year, and the contracts he considered "too high" this year will be laughable offers for comparable players going forward. He's still got his "Dome in the late 90's budget" mentality when it comes to spending money, and while trying to find bargains is fine, when you need players to improve significant portions of your roster to, whaddayacallit, "not terrible" standards, you aren't going to find enough of those players by rolling the dice 5 times on guys like Harden whose arm was manufactured in the same factory as Shannon Stewart's hamstrings. Sometimes, you have to pay to bring in some mid-tier guys (unlike Kevin Correia, who still inexplicably got paid more, and for more years, than superior options) to supplement your existing players. On a good team, they're ideally chewing up innings on the back end of the rotation, but on the Twins, they would be key components of the team being less terrible than the past two years. They shouldn't be expected to be world beaters, but they won't be Blackburn, either. (Except Correia, because he very well may be Blackburn 2.0.)