biggentleben

When did I say it was a fair market contract? Any extension ahead of free agency is inherently going to be for below market value. That's the nature of the beast.

Yes, out of perspective. Player comes to the team seeking to get his family out of a horrific political climate and remain with his friends for an extended time. Signs extension that sets he and his family up for life. Team is ripped for anything short of market value. Rinse. Repeat. That does not mean I don't see that a player could make more. It does not mean that I don't see that the financials are messed up in the game. It does mean that there could be other reasons for seeking out a deal now when leverage may not be at the player's best.

Braves got another extension done, the second of the three that approached the team to do an extension this winter (they've reached out to multiple other players about extensions as well). So far these are just guys who wanted to get one done, which is why the narrative about them leaving money on the table gets out of perspective.

He averaged 92.9 on his fastball in 2017. When he came back last year, it was 88.8. His first start was at least 90.5, so better than 2018, but still not the levels he was at with the Twins before 2018 (92.5-92.9). His slider was also off a couple ticks as well while his change was back to the same velo.

There are few in baseball who love the game of baseball the way Big Erv does. I hope he's gotten back the 2-3 MPH that weren't there last summer as he returned from injury and can be back to the guy the Twins got the rest of his deal, which was a pretty decent deal for the Twins overall.

I was not ready the first time I met with a Native elder, and he attempted to talk with me about the life young men of his tribe experienced. It's something that truly for someone who has not experienced it is as foreign as walking through life backwards. I've had some amazing mentors in the Sioux tribe who have poured into me as I've reached out in preparation to raise five children with Native heritage. They've been very patient with me, taking the time to let me truly understand the whole of where they come from. Until you get THERE, you really cannot understand. I can honestly and openly say that no matter how many poverty-driven African-American teammates I had in college or friends who explained their background, I've never truly understood them in the same way, and I can truly say that I could not fully understand or express the black experience, and I'd have no standing to do such, but I also feel that so many of those dictating what SHOULD be the black experience have never, ever taken the time to get to that point of truly knowing where they come from. Just having gotten that experience with another race/culture, I know it's not something one can just aspire to through press clippings, friends, or even just listening about it.

I will check that out! Thanks for the suggestion!

Yet the Twins saw this same thing with Victory Sports within the last 20 years. There's only so much the market will bear.

I don't have his numbers, so I won't pretend to argue with the details, but the point he was making is that the viewership will hit a point of no return, akin to what is being seen in Los Angeles, where it's too expensive for local cable companies to pay for the channel that hosts the local MLB team due to the amount of money that channel has to recoup from what it paid to the team. I don't have his numbers, but there's about a half-dozen markets in the next 2-3 years going to face what LA is now and most of them by 2025, in his estimations.

The point is that it is sports. Most places in this country would lose their mind to bring in a pro sports team. You couldn't get anyone in this town to pass a 0.5% city-wide sales tax to support education, but if a minor league team tomorrow showed interest in moving, money would flow into the local baseball stadium to fix it up, recruit restaurants, and construct new hotels.

The LA market is a great example of this. The original TV deal was considered to be a "next step" in local TV deals that would set the standard for future deals in other big markets. Instead, in order to make back the money that is being paid to the team, it's too expensive for cable providers to even purchase.

The AAF signed advertising deals the week before they folded. Just because people want in doesn't mean it's a healthy product.

Excellent post. One thing to point out is that Acuna is going to be 29 when the 8-year deal is done, 31 if both options are picked up. Looking at the free agency class for 2019/2020, he'd be one of the youngest in the class, even after the options.

In talks with his dad, he's told me how impactful they were to Ronald's psyche. An injury doesn't have to keep a player out for years to be something that makes an impact on that person. All too often we forget that players are people as well.

Yes, much of this through their leadership in digital sports broadcasting and local team contracts. Many in baseball feel there's a significant financial bubble underlying the game. Players feel it as well. Attendance and TV ratings are stagnant to declining, merchandise sales at the major league level are stagnant or down domestically, and social media has put the game in an increasingly bad light about minor league baseball the way that the NFL was with concussions before one person filed the first lawsuit. Multiple former players have taken their lives when they could not support their family and had no usable skills when they could not make it to the major leagues after giving a decade of their life to the game. That was the big flag that began lawsuits against the NFL. There are some big things that could be belly-up right now. For anyone who is an investor, a friend of mine working in NYC that used to trade on Wall Street said that he would move "stocks" in baseball the way that he was moving real estate companies in 2006-2008, which is why he's sitting in a big chair at 42 instead of attempting to reclaim money lost to clients and his company at that time. He said there is simply too much propping up going on around the game to make things look good to advertisers, but then they try to release books that show flat books or even losses. His review of a couple teams with owners who are required to open their books showed him that the game is really unhealthy financially and is likely to have a blow up soon when TV companies back out and offer significantly less money and advertisers begin walking away due to the lack of audience.

Yep, and when Acuna can now get his family out of Venezuela, that's a big deal. The Braves have been approached by three of their young core this offseason, and two were specifically to get family out of bad situations in their home country.

He did miss playing time (and significant playing time for the wrist/thumb one) for both injuries, so they were actual.

The thing is that each of those guys I mentioned (other than Kiermaier) was a guy used as a comparison for Acuna as he was coming up. The comp I made for him was young Curtis Granderson. Granderson really altered his swing once he got to New York, changing his profile significantly, but he once put up a 4x20 season (20+ doubles, triples, home runs, and stolen bases)

A lot of guys never get to the point of Baldelli before their injuries hurt them. Imagine what Kevin Keimaier would be if he could stay on the field, for instance, but he's never really done that. Among the top 50 guys in bWAR in their first 3 seasons since 1980, Austin Jackson was elite in his first three years, but he's played 150 games just once since (15.2 of 22.1 career bWAR in his first 3 years), Grady Sizemore never played 120 games again after his fourth full season. He had 25.7 bWAR at that point and has 27.3 career bWAR. Kal Daniels had three great years to open his career, then had injuries blow up his career in the late-1980s (12.0 of 16.9 career bWAR in those first three years). Heck, even Ellis Burks had major injuries change him from a power/speed guy into a one-dimensional player that had one big year with Colorado and one with San Fran in his 30s, but was never really the player he was when he came up, with a .291/.350/.470 slash and 82 steals in his first four games (only one of those years with 150+ games). He totaled 181 steals over an 18-year career.

Except Acuna approached the Braves, who then approached his agent. He's one of three that did such this offseason, but he's the first they've gotten done. The Braves did initiate discussions with other agents, but from agents in the game that I've talked to, players are coming to them right now to get extensions due to worries about the future of the game. There's no reason to assume an agent is seeing this as a one-time paycheck.

They just guaranteed over $100 million to a player that could have a career-ending injury tomorrow. There's always risk in these deals to some level.

He came within millimeters of shattering his wrist in 2016 and missed nearly the entire season. Last season, he landed awkwardly on a base and missed multiple weeks with a strained knee. He had the knee evaluated over the winter, but things had healed as hoped. It was the sort of landing that has absolutely shredded guys' knees before, and for him, that'd take away a big dynamic in his game.

What they essentially did was wipe out the 2019/2020 FA market the last four months. The guys left (-x = option for 2020 and/or opt-out): Jose Abreu, Cody Allen, Elvis Andrus-x, Chris Archer-x, Jake Arrieta-x, Dellin Betances, Brad Brach-x, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Carpenter-x, Nicholas Castellanos, Starlin Castro-x, Francisco Cervelli, Tony Cingrani, Steve Cishek, Gerrit Cole, Nelson Cruz-x, Yu Darvish-x, Khris Davis, Corey Dickerson, Josh Donaldson, Sean Doolittle-x, Brian Dozier, Adam Eaton-x, Scooter Gennett, Kyle Gibson, Yasmani Grandal-x, Didi Gregorius, Cole Hamels, Matt Harvey, Felix Hernandez, Jason Heyward-x, Greg Holland, Kenley Jansen-x, Jeremy Jeffress-x, Corey Kluber-x, Starling Marte-x, J.D. Martinez-x, Collin McHugh, Jake Odorizzi, Wily Peralta-x, Yusmeiro Petit-x, Michael Pineda, Rick Porcello, Yasiel Puig, Jose Quintana-x, Anthony Rendon, Hector Rondon, Anthony Rizzo-x, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jonathan Schoop, Will Smith, Justin Smoak, Stephen Strasburg-x, Pedro Strop, Julio Teheran-x, Arodys Vizcaino, Michael Wacha, Tony Watson-x, Zack Wheeler, Alex Wood Really about the only one left under 30 that's a "big-time" guy is Castellanos.

Giants are going to be in a bad, bad way in a few years. No minors, huge money dished out to quickly-aging players (or already aged players)...not a good combo.

This is also a guy who had two HUGE injuries already in his career, either of which could have been a career-ender. He's 21 and a superstar already, but there is that aspect of lining up long-term security. In talking to an agent with a mid-tier sports agency, they are having an influx of their baseball clients asking for them to seek out extensions on their current contracts. There's a significant concern among players right now about a prolonged work stoppage, and those with guaranteed contracts would still get paid during such a time. There are now nearly $4.5 billion in extensions that have been signed in 2019.