h2oface

Now into the final third of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins have somewhat mapped out their destiny. Selling off short term assets, they will be positioning themselves to make a playoff run in 2018. In the first year under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the club was in somewhat of a feeling out period. Over the offseason, the biggest change could come in who heads up the dugout.
 
Paul Molitor was given a one-year grace period by owner Jim Pohlad. Despite mixed results his first two seasons, Molitor was saved as Pohlad mandated that whoever take over for Terry Ryan, keep the current manager in place. Now in the last of a three-year deal, Molitor has nothing to fall back on, and management could go a different direction.
 
When hired, Molitor was up against a group that included names such as Doug Mientkiewicz and Torey Lovullo. The other names in consideration were significantly younger than he was, and had a bit more going for them in terms of managerial experience. Molitor was a guy I backed, and thought made sense, but as we've seen, it's been a bumpy road. It's hard to go backwards and consider what could've been at this point, but the past three years lay a blueprint for Minnesota to avoid.
 
Chief among the issues that plague Molitor are in game decision making, and his relatability to younger players, which is currently the lifeblood of the Twins future. Regarding in game decisions, Minnesota's skipper has done everything from pinch running in odd situations, to making head scratching bullpen moves. In relief, Molitor has latched onto a few guys each year, and ridden them into the ground. For 2017, that name has definitely been Taylor Rogers. Despite running an overflowing bullpen for the bulk of 2017, the same select arms have been used.
 
There's been select games that one could point to in illustrating bad in game managing or bullpen usage, and there's also been a concerning trend of the same mistakes being made. For Molitor, it seems to boil down to a lack of experience, or an inability to best position the Twins for success. Being paired with help like Jeff Pickler this year, it's probably not something that has gone unnoticed by the men in charge.
 
Outside of the in game decision making, there's been a confusing inability to develop youth. While not in the clubhouse or involved in any conversations, it appears from the outside that Molitor struggles with relating to the backbone of Minnesota's core. Whether it be Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, or some other name, Molitor has dropped the ball at times over the past three seasons. Young players have either gone underutilized or put in odd situations at times, and knowing they represent the organization's future, that's more than a little concerning.
 
In reality, managers in baseball come in somewhere along the middle of the spectrum as far as coaches go. They maybe don't make as many impactful decisions as coaches of other sports do, but the few opportunities they get each night, can have a big influence. Employing an average or mediocre manager may not matter in the standings, but an above average or good choice can absolutely steal you a game or two. Conversely, someone below average as I would argue Molitor has been, can cost a few games over the course of a season. That hasn't mattered in recent memory for Minnesota, but a team with playoff aspirations as soon as next year should want more.
 
As things stand right now, I'm not sure where Derek Falvey and Thad Levine may turn. I do believe they'll go elsewhere to manage the 2018 Twins, and I don't think they can be faulted for that practice. Molitor is finishing out his contract, and I can't see a scenario in which Minnesota or another organization is lined up to give him more run. Paul Molitor the player was a great one, but as a manager, the Twins will need something more a year from now.
 
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In the third inning of the Minnesota Twins’ 8-1 loss to the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on Friday night, Brian Dozier hit a long foul ball to the right field corner on a 1-1 pitch from Royals starter Jason Vargas. It was initially ruled foul, and manager Paul Molitor asked for a review.
 
After the review, the call was upheld due to inconclusive evidence to overturn the call.
 
Well, how is this for evidence?
 

 
Luke Thomas appears to be a recent graduate of Missouri State University in Springfield, having studied Socio-Political Communications according to his Facebook page.
 
https://twitter.com/BrianDozier/status/880999860773810176
 
See this post in its entirety on ZoneCoverage.com here.

Brian Dozier was able to call himself an All-Star for the first time in 2015. He's gained national attention after competing in the 2014 Home Run Derby and after hitting a home run to help the American League win the 2015 All-Star Game. He's slowly become one of the Twins most valuable players as he has entrenched himself near the top of the team's line-up.
 
His value to the organization has been clear in recent years. He's ranked in the team's top three for rWAR from 2013-2015 and he led the team in that category in 2014. Dozier has also led the team in home runs in each year during that stretch.
 
For Twins fans, it's easy to get excited about his play. His presence in the line-up has been a jolt the team has needed at different portions of the season. However, offense is only one part of the game and his defensive game has been in decline.
 
As Dozier started his rise to stardom in the Twins line-up, the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) started to use a defensive index to help decide portions of the Rawlings Gold Gloves.
 
According to the SABR website: "The SABR Defensive Index draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts. The three metrics representing batted ball data include Defensive Runs Saved from Baseball Info Solutions, Ultimate Zone Rating developed by noted sabermetrician Mitchel Lichtman, and Runs Effectively Defended built by SABR Defensive Committee member Chris Dial. The two metrics included in the SDI originating from play-by-play data are Defensive Regression Analysis, created by committee member Michael Humphreys, and Total Zone Rating."
 
2013 Season
By the end of the 2013 season, Dozier ranked as the third best second baseman in the American League according to the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). Dustin Pedroia won the Gold Glove and compiled an 11.6 SDI. Dozier's 5.5 SDI was 1.4 points behind Ian Kinsler for second place. There were only seven second basemen that scored in positive territory on the SDI.
 
In 734 chances at second, he was charged with six errors for a .992 fielding percentage, a career best mark. This was seven points higher than the league average for second basemen. However, defense goes deeper than fielding percentage. His defensive runs saved above average (Rdrs) was nine, another career high. Some other Sabermetric Fielding numbers weren't as kind to him. His Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average (Rtot) was -2.
 
2013 was his best defensive season as a big leaguer and it was Dozier's first full season playing second base so this was quite the remarkable feat.
 
2014 Season
Dozier dropped down the SDI rankings in 2014 as Pedroia won his second consecutive AL Gold Glove. Ian Kinsler actually ranked higher than Pedroia in the final SDI rankings and Howie Kendrick rounded out the top three. Dozier slipped all the way to eighth place in the American League with a -0.7 SDI, the sixth worse mark out of qualifying second basemen.
 
During his second season at second base, Dozier showed some regression as he was charged with 15 errors in 751 chances. His .980 fielding percentage was four points lower than the league average. Dozier's Rdrs dropped 9 runs and his Rtot dipped nine 10 runs from -2 to -12.
 
Although his defense wasn't at the bottom of the league, there was a clear decline from the positive numbers he compiled in 2013. He would need to make some changes going into 2015 because he was trending in the wrong direction.
2015 Season
For the first time in the SDI era, a second baseman not in the top two was awarded the Gold Glove. Jose Altuve's 4.6 SDI ranking was less than half of the league leader Ian Kinsler (10.7 SDI) but Altuve was still awarded the top defensive award. Dozier continued his decline into the bottom of the league as he finished with a -6.1 SDI and only ranked ahead of two qualified players, Robinson Cano and Johnny Giavotella.
 
Dozier's fielding percentage went back up to .990 (8 errors in 767 chances) while the league average was a .983 fielding percentage. However some of his other numbers compared differently when looking at his previous seasons. His Rdrs was negative for the first time as he posted a -5 mark but his Rtot was slightly better at -8.
 
There is some hope for Dozier. At the end of the 2014 season, Altuve was the lowest ranking second baseman according to SDI with a -10.2. This mark was 2.5 points lower than competition. In one season, Altuve improved by 14.8 SDI points and was rewarded with the Gold Glove.
 
Dozier makes some tremendously athletic plays but some of this results from him not being able to get to balls that are near the edge of his range. The best second basemen made the routine plays look easy and can stretch their range to meet a specific play.
 
If Dozier wants to be considered one of the best second basemen in the game, his defense is his biggest weakness. He has the opportunity to improve and solving this defensive dilemma could help the club to continue trending in the right direction.

Major League Baseball is quickly pushing towards September 1st; a day in which big league rosters are allowed to expand from 25 to 40 players. For many teams, this involves some roster reconfiguration. The Minnesota Twins are not an exception, and will need to re-evaluate who they view worthy of holding down an ever important spot.
 
For the Twins, this season represents something a bit different, as they are in the midst of a playoff race. While they are likely going to be on the outside looking in, maximizing roster potential in September is a must. Terry Ryan and crew will need to make some difficult decisions in the coming week however. Let's take a look at some of the candidates on the chopping block.
 
Pitchers:
 
A.J. Achter-RHP
 
Achter was a 46th round pick by the Twins in 2010. He has appeared in just 13 big league games, and has pitched 18.1 innings to the tune of a 4.91 ERA. Much better in the minors, Achter owns a 2.90 ERA in 366.1 IP. This seasons for Triple-A Rochester, Achter has compiled a 2.74 ERA in 46.0 innings. At this point, Achter has done everything asked of him, but his stuff profiles more like an AAAA type. He may pass through waivers unclaimed, but he's probably not the type to right your bullpen.
 
Logan Darnell-LHP
 
The Twins haven't called upon Darnell in 2015 after he pitched 24 big league innings with a 7.13 ERA last season. He's had a solid 2015 for Triple-A Rochester, and he recently took a perfect game into the 6th inning in his last start (he's being stretched out of late). His 3.05 ERA and 7.6 K/9 are some of the best marks of his MiLB career. Darnell is either going to be given a shot to prove it, or needs to cede way to someone else though.
 
Brian Duensing-LHP
 
Including Duensing on this list is less about September than it is about this offseason. Minnesota took Duensing to arbitration over the winter and settled on a one-year, $2.7 million deal. They would be best served to cut ties after 2015. The longtime Twin has been better of late, but his 4.25 FIP (fielding independent pitching) is in line with his 4.01 career mark, and his 4.5 K/9 is ugly out of the pen. There are better options out there (and on the farm), who are also much cheaper.
 
Casey Fien-RHP
 
This is somewhat or a mixed-emotions add for me. My trust in Fien as a late inning reliever has waned in recent seasons, but he has also remained relatively consistent. Fien is arbitration eligible in 2016, and remains under team control until 2019. On that alone, I'm not sure I'm sold on removing him. However, his declining strikeout rates (10.6 K/9 in 2013, 7.2 in 14, and 5.2 in 15) are a problem, and his FIP has steadily increased each of the past three years (3.16 in 13, 3.43 in 14, 3.62 in 15). If there's a better option, I wouldn't be opposed to exploring it.
 
Ryan O'Rourke-LHP
 
Back in 2010, the Twins selected O'Rourke out of a small town college in Massachusetts. He's now 27, and made his big league debut this season. Despite being a LOOGY (lefty one out guy), he's been hit around to an ERA north of 5.00 for the Twins. His career 4.15 MiLB ERA isn't inspiring either. O'Rourke is allowing lefties to hit just .156/.250/.250 while striking out 16 in 32 at bats. He's walked one-fourth of the righties he's faced though, and isn't a real answer to a shaky pen.
 
Aaron Thompson-LHP
 
Thompson was an early season surpise for the Twins. The former first round pick owned a 2.11 ERA and a .181/.235/.278 slash line against in his first 21.1 IP. Then the wheels fell off. Over his final 24 games for the Twins, Thompson pitched to the tune of a 10.64 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to slash .388/.444/.490 off of him. Since being demoted back to Triple-A Rochester, Thompson owns a 4.76 ERA and has just a 7/4 K/BB ratio in 11.1 IP. It's probably best for the Twins to move on from the reclamation project whether he's claimed or not.
 
Jason Wheeler-LHP
 
A former 8th round pick in 2011, Wheeler has had quite an eventful 2015. He's been demoted to Double-A Chattanooga twice, while being promoted to Triple-A Rochester once after starting the season there. In total, he owns a 5.73 ERA and a measly 5.7 K/9. His Double-A numbers are better (4.34 ERA 7.6 K/9), but still show little reason to be hopeful. With pitching as an asset throughout the farm, the 40 man roster spot could go to better use.
 
Position Players:
 
Chris Herrmann-C
 
Much like Duensing, Herrmann isn't an immediate DFA option for the Twins. He's on the 25 man roster as the backup catcher, and with Josmil Pinto (who's not catching) as the only other 40 man option, this isn't happening now. Regardless, Herrmann isn't a big leaguer, and the Twins have some serious issues behind the dish. Over the winter, addressing their backstop situation is a must. Herrmann is slashing .159/.225/.305, which is bad (and even worse by the standards of a guy with a career .187/.254/.289 slash line). Minnesota needs some catching depth, and Herrmann doesn't qualify as that.
 
Eduardo Nunez-Util
 
Smoke and mirrors was what Eduardo Nunez put up for a good portion of 2015. Now the owner of a .268 average, Nunez owned a .302/.333/.508 slash line up until the All Star Break. The catch was that he played in just 22 games and had just 66 plate appearances. He's been worth 0.6 fWAR on the season, which is at least a positive. Nunez however was someone I thought could have been DFA'd prior to the 2015 season starting. Better utility options are generally out there, and as an arbitration guy this upcoming season, he's not going to be worth the expense.
 
Shane Robinson-OF
 
If anyone assumed their role better than Shane Robinson in 2015, I'm not aware of it. Brought in to be a 4th outfielder, he was exactly that. It was Jordan Schafer that was kept out of spring training at the detriment of Aaron Hicks, not Robinson. In his first season away from the Cardinals, Robinson has slashed .255/.306/.331. His five steals tie a career high, and his 0.5 fWAR is on pace to be a career best. His defense was a boost to a Twins outfield in flux, and he gave the club everything asked of him. Now with the outfield in a more stable situation, Robinson can be thanked for his contributions and be made expendable.
 
Oswaldo Arcia-OF
 
Easily the highest profile name on this list, Arcia puts the Twins in a tough spot. He has played just 19 games in the big leagues this season, and is not deserving of a September callup. Despite a career best .276/.338/.379 slash line at the MLB level, he compiled 15 strikeouts and just four walks. Despite being a power guy (34 HR the last two seasons), he swings and misses far too often. At Triple-A Rochester, Arcia owns a .206/.265/.385 slash line with 11 home runs 75 strikeouts and just 17 walks. He has hit just .108/.202/.176 since July 21, and his attitude combined with effort have been in question most of his career. Out of options going forward, Minnesota dealing him this offseason seems like a good avenue to explore.
 
With a farm system ready to overflow with prospects, and some worthy September call ups not being on the 40 man roster, Minnesota will need to begin some turnover. Abover are a few of the names to keep eyes on. As the Twins look to get back into a yearly playoff picture, Minnesota will need to fill the 40 man with more quality than quantity types.
 
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The headline here is a reference--if you do not know somehow--to a line from The Big Lebowski. It's the scene in the car where Walter has brought "the ringer" ("the whites") and The Dude loses it on him. The Dude is a very chill guy who smokes pot, listens to CCR, and bowls. But in this scene he yells (editing profanity) "You (screwed) it up! You (screwed) it up!" Walter responds with the quote in the headline.
 
Well it's that time of year when the Twins opening day roster becomes finalized and many, including myself, are screaming what The Dude was screaming in the car. I mean it all seems ridiculous. Maybe not each individual move taken separately, but when looking at the totality--Milone, Pelfrey, Boyer, and Robinson as choices over May, Meyer, Tonkin/Oliveros/Achter, and Hicks/Rosario, on top of the additions of Hunter and Stauffer--it looks like a big roster mistake based on some strange notion of trying to compete with aging guys instead of rebuilding with younger guys.
 
That's all true. I don't think the truth is on the Twins side here. This seems like a bizarre way to approach the season, especially since this doesn't mean merely having the young guys "earn" a promotion to the Twins . . . they are now forced to compete with one another down in AAA and even AA in some cases. It would seem like a rebuilding team promotes the young guys to get a sense of who is going to be worthy of keeping in 2016 and beyond. I cannot imagine any of those six--Milone, Pelfrey, Boyer, Robinson, Hunter, and Stauffer--being on the team in 2016.
 
But screaming about this isn't going to do any good and it isn't good for oneself. It is indeed being very un-dude. Here's a breakdown:
 
A. It's baseball. Baseball isn't like bowling . . . but watching baseball is like bowling in that you do it for fun and you drink beer while doing it.
 
B. There might be value in finding even one of those six guys who puts up a legitimate year that adds wins to the team this year. Stauffer and Hunter are the best bets there. ST stats mean very little. Stauffer is a good reliever.
 
C. Maybe this new focus on the changeup will improve the staff, including Boyer.
 
D. The young guys can all be together and work together and help each other out that way. Rochester suddenly has Rosario, Hicks, and Danny Ortiz in the OF. May and Meyer will be leading the rotation with the likes of Wheeler, Rogers, and maybe Duffey. Tonkin, Oliveros, and Achter are going to be in the bullpen with O'Rourke, Darnell (if I were Darnell, I would advocate for a full-time bullpen role), Hamburger, and Pressly. Rochester actually should be full of prospects, which is rare. It should be good though.
 
E. Nothing is really stopping a mass movement upward. This isn't Gardenhire's team, so we don't really know what to expect. If the oldsters aren't getting the job done, then I do think Molitor will replace them. And this can include a Schafer-Robinson for Hicks-Rosario swap. First, Rosario is going to get some time at second base in Rochester, and thus he still has that going for the Twins as another backup for Dozier. Second, Hunter is going to need days off, as will Mauer, and younger guys like Arcia and Vargas. There are innings and at bats there. Also, with each passing day the Twins are paying Mike Pelfrey less and less. Milone and Stauffer aren't making all that much, and Boyer is making very little. They are all replaceable and will be replaced with one wave from AAA and then another from AA.
 
F. We don't know what is going to happen, so let's just enjoy it. There are still a number of things to be excited about. First, a fully recovered Joe Mauer. Second, Santana and Vargas soph seasons. Third, Oswaldo Arcia is going to go ape this year. I guarantee that. Fourth, Eduardo Escobar is still going to get plenty of at bats and be a doubles machine. Finally, a new manager and pitching coach. This is the most important thing. Those old, ridiculous days are gone.
 
G. Being un-Dude is a terrible way to be.
 
It's understandable that we are "not into the whole levity thing" right now. We have ideas about what should be done and the Twins make mistakes. But it is clear that this is still the beginning of baseball season and that is something to be quite pleased about. I do think that these problems are going to work themselves out. The September roster should be pretty sick. There will be trades made that will help support a minor league system that hopefully is seeing its last top 10 overall pick this year.
 
There are still plenty of good things occurring outside of the decisions regarding players 21-25 on the roster.