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cmb0252

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Everything posted by cmb0252

  1. cmb0252
    Don't forget the agents cut of their signing bonus and/or the cost of any other advisor that comes out of their pocket: lawyer, CPAs, PR people, off season trainer.
  2. cmb0252
    This. Everyone wants an ace to be there at #4 but if there isn't one there why reach? Back to Buxton. He has started better than could be predicted but he will cool down. What he does after he cools down will be what dictates when, if, he get promoted to high A. I think if he is playing well by mid season the Twins will promote him but no sooner.
  3. cmb0252
    While the season has just started and Buxton is definitely going to come back to earth at some point that doesn't change my mind that he will end the year in high A. Sano and Rosario were held back because of their gloves, not their bats. Buxton's 80 speed is going to hide some of his flaws not only in the outfield but at the dish. Buxton is going to turn outs into singles at the plate and singles into outs in the field.
  4. cmb0252
    A walk and a HR for Buxton already.
  5. cmb0252
    I believe, my memory ain't what it used to be, Mr.Garrioch over at minorleagueball did a study that looked at draftee success. If I remember right he compared college vs high school and position vs pitcher success of first Rounders. If I wasn't stuck on my phone I would try and find/link his study. Edit: here is a link to his study on success rate. Not sure if he has updated it since. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/3/2255951/mlb-draft-success-rates
  6. cmb0252
    I'm excited to see your draft board and compare it to mine. Especially because you clearly have Twins inside information that I do not.
  7. cmb0252
    On my personal draft board I have Manaea ranked 8th, in my third tier, and the 4th best pitcher. That is mostly off ceiling and not performance.
  8. cmb0252
    I love this gem from Chris Slade over at minorleagueball: Ryne Stanek - RHP - Arkansas - Last week: 4 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 92 Pitches! This week: 8 IP, 5 H, O ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 97 Pitches. He's consistently inconsistent. Link for the rest of his college baseball round up below: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/4/8/4196898/weekend-college-baseball-recap-april-5-7
  9. cmb0252
    A few interesting things from Jim Callis' April 3rd chat regarding the draft. Could you see the Cubs taking RHP Jon Gray if the Astros pop Appel at 1-1? Jim Callis: I could. If the draft were today, I’d expect Appel and Gray to go 1-2 or 2-1. If the draft was tomorrow, who are your top three picks, in order? Jim Callis: Stanford RHP Mark Appel, Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray, Georgia high school OF Austin Meadows. I actually wrote my column for our last magazine issue on who I’d take with each of the first 10 picks, and that will post with our updated Draft Top 50 Prospects tomorrow. I wrote that column about 10 days ago, and I’ve shuffled my choices since then. This one is the most interesting to me With a projection of Appel/Gray at 1 & 2 (in whatever order), the Rockies seem pinched at #3, probably looking at one of the prep OFers in Frazier or Meadows or possibly Bryant. Yes, you go BPA, but for a team that needs pitching and has some depth in the OF in the minors, isn't this almost a worst-case scenario? Jim Callis: I wouldn’t say worst-case scenario, but I agree that the best case would be for Appel or Gray to fall to the Rockies, or for a third college pitcher (Manaea) to assert himself that high. Nothing wrong with taking Frazier or Meadows if they’re the best available. Even if a third guy emerges as a potential ace the Twins might not get the chance.While it is still early Twins fans who want an ace, who should be all of us, at 4 might be out of luck.
  10. cmb0252
    Manaea did miss his start Friday with a hip strain but he did throw Sunday. He threw 6 shutout innings and ended the day with a 9/0 k/bb ratio. No word on the quality of his stuff. Christopher crawford (helping Law with draft info at ESPN) had an interesting quote from an NL scout. "Hip injuries can just be such a lingering issue," an NL scout said. "Even if it's mild and creates just a little bit of discomfort, it's something to keep an eye on because they have this nasty habit of coming back. [i'm] not saying that it's a reason not to draft a kid, but it's more homework for a club to do and can put doubt in a club's mind." Its a good read and has information about several other draft prospect and is linked below: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/mlb_draft/id/9146465/stanford-austin-wilson-returns-action-indiana-state-sean-manaea-battles-injury-mlb Also in Jim callis chat on the third he was asked the following question: Seems like Sean Manaea's stock has fallen in a lot of mock drafts. Do you chalk up his less than totally dominant start, both production and stuff-wise, to the weather? Something else? Jim Callis: I think he has fallen a little bit, though I still think he’d go in the top 5-10 picks if the draft were today. The weather up here–I live outside of Chicago–has been bitterly cold for most of the year, but I think the inconsistency of his secondary pitches and his command. His numbers aren’t bad at all (1.14 ERA, 46-13 K-BB in 39 IP) but he hasn’t shown scouts everything they’ve hoped for.
  11. cmb0252
    Trout was a first rounder. So were Harper, both Upton's, heyward, Braun, fielder, mauer, longo, tulo, and so on and so on. Most elite guys, batting or pitching, come from the first round or internationally. There are only about 10-15 aces in all of baseball and about 15-20 true #2s so yes, finding an ace in general is super hard. If there is a pitcher that profiles to be an ace, Appel or Gray, go for him. If not take the best talent (which could still be a pitcher).
  12. cmb0252
    Manaea has a lot of question marks around him and missing starts with an injury can't help. Currently I just can't see him being a top 5 guy until he proves his stuff from the cape cod is really.
  13. cmb0252
    Gunnarthor- Great list with nothing I can really disagree with. Haha, I was actually thinking about having something similar to your #5 for my #5 but decided on having at least one "negative" one. I'm a Kepler fan boi and proud to admit it. Seth- while I agree a Buxton promotion would not be the Twins style at all I just think Buxton is a player who will hide some of his flaws, especially in lower levels, with his athletic ability. Turn small infield hits that should be outs into singles. His 80 speed makes him a solid defender in CF even if he does read the ball well. There are a lot of "tool sheds" in baseball but I don't remember a single one that got Bo Jackson comparisons except Buxton before the draft.
  14. cmb0252
    That's not good news.
  15. cmb0252
    I saw one of these in the general twins forum but there wasn't one here for the kiddos. Just like the title says, what are your 5 minor leagur twins predictions this year? These are mine, what are yours? 1) Buxton through sheer athletic ability will force the Twins to promote him to high A. He will also end the season with 10 more stolen bases than the next twins player. 2) Buxton will be the Twins minor league player of the year thanks mostly to the guy in my number 3 prediction. 3) Arcia will murder AAA to an almost illegal amount that it forces the twins to trade willingham and promote him for the rest of the year. Thus, clearing the way for Buxton to be the Twins minor league player of the year. 4) Alex Myers will finish the season in the top 10 in Ks in all the minors and be the Twins pitcher of the year. 5) Joe Benson will be a huge bust and get traded at some point to a team that will take a flyer on him. (Hey, they can't all be positive)
  16. cmb0252
    Oh I highly doubt everyone in the front office agreed Buxton was the number one guy but in the end they took a position of strength over a position of need. These guys aren't dumb so that should tell you what they think of him. Also, you aren't wrong at all in thinking organizationly need should be some what of a factor. Im not disagreeing with that. If the twins grade two guys similar then I hope they would be smart and grab the need. Problem is when you go in saying we are drafting X and skip on guys they grade significantly higher for that need.
  17. cmb0252
    Thanks for the great write up Seth. Always my favorite articles around here.
  18. cmb0252
    BPA might not be a black or white thing for us fans, who don't get to see the twins board and only see the experts boards, but it is for the Twins front office. They have their board which took tons of time, scouting, resources, and debates to put together. The front office obviously knew the farm system needed pitching but took Buxton anyways because they thought he was the clear BPA. Appel wasn't the same guy he is today as he was last year. P.S. Thanks for the inside info on Shipley. Always appreciated.
  19. cmb0252
    I think you nail it. If the twins don't rate any of the pitchers as high as Gray/Appel take a bat like last year. There are plenty of solid arms, like JO last year, who will be around at ~40. Clearly Keith Law doesn't agree with us though
  20. cmb0252
    Anderson definitely has the stuff and size to be a #2. Maybe more. If he keeps pitching the way he is, outside of last week which he still had a 10/1 K/BB ratio, I think he has a good chance to go in the top ten. Pierre might be a better person to ask because He is the leader of the Anderson bandwagon around here. When I said Anderson only had 2 current above average pitches he schooled me with several great articles I had never read talking about Anderson's solid change up. Personally any of the pitchers outside of Appel and Gray scare me a little due to the lack of at least one 70+ grade pitch. the season is still young and Anderson/Manaea have silders which have the potential to be 70s while Shipleys change up could end up being a 70. I just like big numbers!
  21. cmb0252
    That or Appel could have looked this good last year and we could have just taken him at two. If manaea can gain his cape cod form he definitely could work his way back into the top 5. I praying Gray some how makes it to the Twins at 4. Gray is the only guy out of the top arms that has a possible 80 pitch. Mr.Garrioch had a great write up on Gray. Well worth the read for Gray fans. Link below: 2013 MLB Draft Profile: Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma - Minor League Ball
  22. cmb0252
    If Grey/Appel are both gone by #4, would Bryant make sense for the Twins? [h=6]Klaw 1:14 PM ET[/h]Two of Appel, Gray, Manaea, Anderson, and Shipley will be there, by definition. I'd be surprised if they didn't take one of those guys. Re your Twins answer above, has Stanek fallen to the point that he's not even one of the top 5 college arms? [h=6]Klaw 1:26 PM ET[/h]I'd say he's not clearly among them, but I could see a team choosing him over a Shipley or an Anderson given track records and Arkansas's pitch-calling, which has him throwing too many sliders. For those of you who don't know who Shipley is law answered the following question: What is the ceiling for Braden Shipley and what is the most reasonable expectation for him? [h=6]Klaw 1:53 PM ET[/h]Great athlete, chance for three plus pitches. If that's not a potential ace, it's pretty close. He doesn't have the command or the present breaking ball to be that, but that's his best-case scenario outlook. Also for more info on Shipley, if you have insiders, law saw him last week and here is his right up: MLB Scouting Shipley, Judge, more - ESPN "I saw him Thursday night at home against Fresno State, a relatively cold evening, where he started out at 92-95 for two innings but backed off to 89-92 for the remainder of his outing, perhaps owing to the temperature." Says he has heard his fastball has hit 99 and is a 60 pitch. His best pitch is a 65+ change up and had a solid-average curve.
  23. cmb0252
    BA has Buxtons ETA at 2015 which seems a little aggressive but when you have a freak athlete with Buxtons work ethic it is completely possible. Personally I think Buxton will be up to stay in 2016. But anyways....this is the Appel section and not the OMG why did the twins take a HS OF and not a college pitcher section. We already have enough of those. I agree with most people here that there is no way Appel is going to make it to the Twins at 4. Even if the Astros pass on him the Cubs wont. They need pitching in the minors almost as bad as us.
  24. cmb0252
    Some HS kid 6 years away? Don't know who you are talking about but it clearly isn't Buxton. As for Manaea, while he might only have one bad start, his stuff isn't there like it was in cape cod. His fastball has been a tick or two slower. His slider and control haven't been as consistent. College stats are great and all but scouts are looking for ability, not the final stat line. If Appel( most likely) and Gray (decent chance) are gone by the Twins pick they will be in an interesting spot.
  25. cmb0252
    I'm right there with you on Bryant. I have been driving that bandwagon for awhile. I currently have him 3 on my draft board behind Appel and Gray. While I'm hoping one of those two arms are there at 4, currently doesn't look like it, I wouldn't mind taking an offensive stud like Bryant.
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