cmb0252

Personally, I'm note a huge fan of using college stats to judge prospects. While you like to see players dominate piers it definitely isn't an end all be all. Wimmers had a 11 k/9 in college but no one ever expected him to strike out that many guys in the bigs. No, Wimmers isn't the prospect Nola is. Nola has significantly better overall stuff. Nola does have some flaws though. He throws from a low-three quarters arm slot which you rarely see in the bigs. He does repeat his delivery well though.He is also undersized at 6'1 which is or isn't a big deal depending on who you talk to. Most importantly to me is he doesn't have a true 70 grade pitch. I just see a solid number three pitcher when I look at Nola.

Seems like there are 6 players (Rodon, Nola, Aiken, Kolek, Gordon, Jackson) who have been heavily linked to the top 5 picks. Outside of Nola I would be happy with any of the other 5.

Relooking over your draft mock and looking at Garrioch's/Crawford's today it just reminds me of how deep this draft is. While there are guys I prefer at #5 I honestly would be fine with about 10+ players. As you noted with Pentecost pick, teams are going to get a few steals. Also, more than last year I'm truly interested with who the Twins take in the second round. Could definitely get a first round type talent. Only 17 more days!

I don't believe I have ever compared Gordon to Simmons. I was just throwing in my two cents about the original post. If I was going to I would definitely agree with you that while Gordon profiles as a plus defender Simmons is a plus-plus defender. Still, if his offensive numbers are similar and he is worth half as much WAR on defense as Simmons that still makes him a 3.5+ WAR player. As for Didi, I was for a trade before the season and I'm for a trade now. Your guess is as good as mine to what he will cost but let's not act like they are similar players just because of OPS. Gordon should be a plus defender at SS while Didi was pretty much league average last year.

Callis released an article on the draft about how talented the group of HS pitchers are. One club executive suggested Aiken/Kolek is a better top two HS pair of arms than Bradley/Bundy. Also, one scouting director had an interesting take on the drafts HS pitching depth: "In the middle of the first round, there will be a ton of these high school pitchers, and even more in the second or third round," a scouting director said. "There's a ton of them. "One of the things I have to navigate through is I don't think my team will tell me I can't take a high school pitcher in the first round, though I think they prefer it's college. I'm not sure they're going to want me taking a high school pitcher again in the second round if I do in the first, even if that's the best guy on our board. It will be interesting." Full article here: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/talented-group-of-high-school-hurlers-headline-draft?ymd=20140519&content_id=76006524&vkey=news_mlb Mayo also released an article today on Touki Toussaint. Here is a link to that one: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/touki-toussaint-impresses-with-personality-arm?ymd=20140519&content_id=76006672&vkey=news_mlb

I do agree that Simmons has a little project left hut even if Simmons doesn't advance any more he was worth 6.9 WAR last year (baseball reference) and finished 14th in NL MVP voting. He would have been the best player on the Twins last year. 100 MPH pitchers and 30HR middle of the order batters are sexy but not more valuable. One other thing to note is while Dee is faster he has now been moved to second base because of his poor feel for the position/poor arm. Gordon won't have either of those problems.

Christopher Crawford released a new mock draft last night. Like a lot of the recent mocks that have popped up he has the Twins taking Gordon. He gave Gordon a 50% chance to be taken by the Twins, Jackson a 35% chance, and Nola a 15% chance. Here is a link to the mock: http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/the-mock-volume-v-the-percentages-edition/ Crawford isn't done. Him and Law released an ESPN insider article today on the best tools in the class. Here are a few players who made the list that have been linked to the Twins: Nola had the best college change up with Weaver being considered. Potential second round pick Mac Marshall was considered for the best HS change up. Jackson had the best hit tool with Gordon being considered. Jackson was the runner up for best power after Gatewood for a HS hitter. Gordon was considered for best HS throwing arm.

I would assume if Kolek is there at #5, which I truly doubt he will be, the Twins would take him. Saying that, Kolek is far from a finished product. While he has a massive fastball his secondary pitches and control are lagging behind. Also, when you have a kid his age throwing that hard the words Tommy and John have to at least come into play in the discussion at some point.

Fantastic write up Twinsfan34. You definitely reinforce the fact that there is no reason for the Twins to draft Hoffman at #5. I do feel grabbing Hoffman, which won't happen, at #46 would be a steal and feel just looking at college numbers paint the whole picture. Here is another college stud and his stats: 18 W/5L, 2.93 ERA, 218 innings pitched, 6 CG, 273K, 109 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 11.27 SO/9. Who is the pitcher? None other than Twins own Alex Wimmers. While he was a dominant pitcher in college when he entered the pros most had him tagged as a future #4 with a ceiling of a #3. It is always good to have top college players dominate their competition but in the end stats can only tell you so much.

Not only did Wacha's fastball get a bump in velocity but his best pitch when drafted, a 65 change up, according to Law is now an easy 70-80 pitch depending on the day. Unless Nola develops a 70+ pitch he won't be close to Wacha.

An arm definitely seems to be the best fit but last year they took Bryant over Gray because they had him higher on their board. Honestly even if they take Gordon I would be pretty happy with Jackson. Heck, out of the names they have been linked to I would be happy with any of them that aren't Nola.

3 credible mocks and three choices of Gordon for the Twins. Rodon at #1, Aiken at #3, and Gordon at #5 are pretty much the only picks all three agree on. Cubs seem to be the biggest wild card.

Apparently today is mock draft day. Here is one from kiley McDaniel : http://sbb.scout.com/2/1403161.html

Very interesting mock to say the least. Would love Kolek to fall to the Twins at #5.

Once you see Law doing a mock you know the draft isn't far away. Nothing really new with the Twins being interested in Gordon, Jackson, and Nola but the fact the Twins might be in on Gatewood under slot at #5 is a bomb shell. Especially since he doesn't have anyone else taking him in the first round. A Gordon under slot at #5 and Gatewood over slot at #46 would be a dream draft.

That's great to hear. I would hate for them to skip over talent to have a safer draft. While they did draft two HS players in a row in 2012 they did spend 9 of their next 11 top 10 round picks on college players. Justus Sheffield seems like a Berrios type pick. Under sized pitcher but big time stuff. Definitely seems like a Twins pick and I wouldn't mind it at all. As for Gettys he would be the steal of the draft. Would love for him to fall that far but with the lack of quality position players in this draft I feel someone might take a chance on his huge ceiling before we pick again. Doesn't mean I can dream!

Not only do I believe a system can never have enough LHPers but that seems to be a strength this year. I have been a huge Marshall/Forrest fan but also wouldn't mind Reed. I'm also very interested in RHPer Spencer Adams but I believe he has pitched himself into the 1st round. One thing you bring up that is something I have thought about a lot is if the Twins draft a HS player in the first round would they feel comfortable grabbing another one in the 2nd round? A name I believe you (i could be wrong) linked the Twins to earlier in the year was Luke Weaver. He could fit the Ryan Eades role as a once potential top 15 pick college RHPer who fell to the second round. Maybe I'm just over thinking things.

While I will never complain about drafting a lefty I still have about 8 players ahead of him.

Well put. If the Twins take him at 5 it is because he is the highest rated player on their bored. The fact he plays a position of need is just a bonus. Definitely has the ceiling of an all-star.

A few questions from BA's draft chat: Kyle Freeland keeps climbing higher and higher. Any chance at him going 1st overall? John Manuel: I have asked that very question myself and been told he is not in the mix for that selection. I humbly believe that he should be; I suppose there's actually nothing humble about saying that. But the stuff is outstanding, as is the performance. But I think his track record isn't long enough to get him into that mix. I do think we're a bit higher on him than the entire industry is, but I am OK with that. Who makes it to MLB the fastest out of this draft? Rodon? Nola? Clint Longenecker: They are contenders, though Rodon will have to improve his command, particularly of his fastball, and continue to develop his changeup. I spoke with an evaluator who suggested another pitcher for this category, LHP Kyle Freeland. He said that you could stick him in the major league pen in August with his plus fastball-slider combo and at least plus command. What separates Alex Jackson from the trio of pitchers being considered at 1/1? If I were the Astros, I think I'd take the potential middle of the order bat and use the pitching depth of the draft to build up my pitching. John Manuel: There's some merit to this approach. Jackson is the best power hitter in this draft; his 47th homer the other day tied the San Diego section record, and he did it in a dead-bat era. SD has had some fair players over the years as well. If you thought Jackson could remain a catcher and would not lag behind defensively, I think the Astros would seriously consider it. I will say historically, position players at the top of drafts have out-performed pitchers at the top. If the Astros do take a hitter No. 1, I think it would be Jackson. Which high school and college hitters have the best bat speed this year? Clint Longenecker: Josh, great question! From the high school side Alex Jackson, Michael Chavis, Michael Gettys and Monte Harrison are in the discussion for some of the best bat speed. With Hoffman and Fedde injured, you still have them pretty high. Do you think they will actually be drafted as high as ranked or do you think they will get the money associated with the slots they are ranked here? John Manuel: The Fedde TJ happened after that list went to press; Hoffman had been adjusted down a tad. We decided not to change the list from what went into the print edition to avoid confusion and having different lists. The final BA 500 on May 28 may tweak that top 100 order some but not too drastically. We'll have more information presumably at that time, though, so it's natural that some things could change. I still think both players will go in the first or supplemental first, as Sean Manaea and Kyle Gibson and other injured players have gone before. Andrew Brackman's another example of a player who needed Tommy John surgery and was a first-rounder anyway. He's the worst-case scenario; a lot of the other TJ guys still went on to successful careers. So I do think they'll go out high, particularly to a team or teams with extra picks. Full chat here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1400080672

Very odd list...Freeland at #5, Hoffman/Fedde still in the top 10, Conforto ahead of Zimmer/Holmes. I just can't figure out this list.

I have no problem preferring Jackson or a different prospect to Gordon. Part of the fun of following the draft is debating whom the Twins should draft. The problem I have is you are inaccurately depicting Gordon's defensive prospect level by comparing him to other past Twins prospects. When evaluating SS defense you have to look at several things. Arm strength, hands, size, instincts, range, and lateral movement. Polanco signed for $750k (not bad but not elite for an international prospect) at age 16. The article you linked suggested Polanco most likely will have to move off SS because "his lack of size and arm strength." Gordon has a 70 grade arm and is 6'1 with a solid family blood line that suggests he will be the ideal SS size. Levi Michael was a the 30th overall pick in the 2011 signed out of North Carolina. Here is what mlb.com had to say about his defense: "When he's healthy, he's got above-average speed and will steal a base. An ankle injury has slowed him somewhat this season on both sides of the ball. Even before that, some scouts felt his range was too limited to be an everyday shortstop as a professional. His average arm is playable there but might be a bit short to profile there all the time. As a result, most see him as a second baseman -- his hands work just fine." Gordon is 3+ inches taller than Michael, has a stronger arm, and has better range. As for Dozier, I personal don't remember his scouting report but he was a 8th round picking coming out of college. While he is currently preforming well in the bigs you can't compare an 8th round pick to a potential top 5 pick prospect wise. Instead of comparing him to past Twins prospects we should look at his skills. Here is BA's take: "The game comes easy to Gordon, who is a confident, instinctive player. He has lateral range to both sides and natural, fluid actions, with soft hands to go with a plus arm that is the arguably the best infield arm in the high school class." Gordon has everything you are looking for defensively for a SS which is more then I can say for past Twins SS prospects.

Crawford's new draft board : http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/the-board-volume-v/

If you flip a coin three times and it lands on heads all three times it doesn't mean it will always land on heads. Gordon isn't the same caliber prospect as Dozier/Levi/Polanco. If the Twins draft Gordon he would easily be the best SS prospect we have drafted in 10, maybe 15 years. Instead of comparing him to other Twins prospects, which none are ideal matches, we should look at players who resemble his game better.

I agree with you. No one is saying he won't be a SS going forward which is rare. Also, while his hit/power tools have lagged behind Nick isn't his brother Dee. He is 3 inches taller and definitely has some room to add more muscle to his frame.