Oxtung

Hughes does little for me. He is a back of the rotation starter that shouldn't find the rotation in the playoffs. The Twins have plenty of guys to fill that role, including Mr. Correia. If the Twins are going to sign another pitcher it needs to be someone with upside. Kazmir would fit the bill nicely. Josh Johnson was my first choice but that ship has sailed.

None of those listed will bring much of value back this winter. They are all too far away and not highly enough thought of to have much value. They are the guys you throw in to push the deal over the top. They're flyers. The center piece of a trade would have to be Perkins, Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Rosario or Arcia, perhaps Dozier or Pinto. Depending of course on who the pitcher coming back is.

He wouldn't even crack the playoff rotations for the Tigers, Cardinals or Rays. He would be the number 4 starter for the Red Sox and Dodgers. It's questionable if he'd be a starter for the A's or Rangers as in the playoffs last season. To be a championship caliber team in 2014 you need to have 3 pitchers who fit that "#1 or #2 starter" description. Then you're fourth starter can be a 3/4.

There were pitchers better than Nolasco available this offseason on short term deals. Josh Johnson, Dan Haren, Tim Hudson have all signed already. That's a minor nitpick though. 2014's FA SP class looked much better before Adam Wainwright, RA Dickey, Jake Peavy and Matt Harrison signed extensions. It also looked better before Josh Johnson fell apart and Lincecum had another down year. Off the top of my head I know that Cole Hamels and Matt Cain both signed extensions before becoming FA's in 2013. Just because next year looks good now doesn't mean it will when it's actually time to start signing pitchers. Many people made the argument that there was no need to sign Greinke or Sanchez last off season because there was always 2014. Well here we are and now there isn't anyone in their class available.

Like many others, I am happy with what this signing means more so than I am with Nolasco himself. On a championship caliber team, which is what I expect the Twins to strive to achieve every season, he is a #4 starter. That said, it is a nice upgrade to our rotation. If the Twins acquire another pitcher it should be someone with #1 or #2 starter upside. The Twins have several candidates that could be back of the rotation filler at this point so it makes little sense to bring in an aging vet to fill out the rotation unless he also brings exceptional stuff to the table as well.

I agree with the previous poster that this rotation won't get to the playoffs without an elite offense. For the twins to get to the playoffs in the next few seasons they need both Meyer and Gibson to turn into 1 and 3 type pitchers and they need to sign a top of the rotation pitcher as well.

Baseball reference has arbitration estimates available and roster filler estimates on their team pages. It is under the "payroll" tab. I can't look right now to find out what they are estimating because I'm late for a meeting right now. Damn TD.

Andrus has a pretty hefty salary. Would the Cards be willing to take on that salary commitment? Cleveland, Oakland and the Cubs are some more options with SS's potentially available. The problem seems to be what you already stated, every team needs starting pitching.

So you're saying we should trade Hicks tquickly before he forgets how to throw a ball?

Good responses. I think Lester and Cueto are interesting names. Don't know if the Reds would part with both Cueto and Bailey in one season. They don't have much pitching depth in the minors ready. They have Stephenson but he is probably going to start 2014 at A+ or AA. The new manager might decide to move Chapman back to the rotation.

Again, I'm not saying that SIERA is perfect, only that it is the best available. If we can't use any metrics because "it doesn't measure future success" (which is BS by the way) then how do you suggest we judge pitchers? Could you post a link to the aforementioned study? I'd love to read it. I'm not really sure how to respond to this. You state that he has missed an entire seasons worth of starts over the last 4 years. Then you list every injury he has had in his career that has caused him to miss time. Now you claim you you're not implying he's injury prone? I have no idea what you're talking about w/r to Berardino. There is a quote from Johnson's agent about wanting a 1 year deal and he suggests it should be around $14 million. I also have no idea who Moreno is in this context. It's clear that you value "health" and innings pitched in previous years. As I've already stated, and tried to explain why multiple times, I don't. I'm sure I'm in the minority. Let's move on.

I like your general approach. Try to sign a good pitcher to a long term contract. Sign a pitcher to a bounce back contract and perhaps trade him. Basically starting to improve the roster before the all the young guys are ready. The only problem that I see is that Bailey is unlikely to sign an extension 1 season before hitting the open market with a team he isn't comfortable/familiar with. That is why the Reds are thinking about trading him. In support of this notion his agent is the wily Mr. Boras. So is your Bailey deal contingent upon an extension? What is your backup if that falls through?

I'm not sure what your point is here. We use the tools we have available to us. Are any of the metrics perfect? No, but if a point is going to be made using a metric I think the best metrics should be used. In this case that is SIERA. He's very volatile and as such might have a few #2 type seasons and a few #4 type seasons, so in the end yes, I think he is a #3 starter. The Twins Daily crew seems to think so as well. Their 4 years for $64 million is right in line with Edwin Jackson's contract last season as well as Kyle Lohse's, after adjusting for the additional influx of revenue and Lohse's draft pick compensation and age. Is there any reason to think that his back problems of 2009 are going to affect his 2014 pitching? Is the fact that he had TJ surgery in 2007 relevant to 2014? He had a bone spur removed in early October and it had a 5 week recovery period. Does that mean he won't be ready to go in 2014? It's easy to say he's "injury prone" but that is lazy analysis. It's one thing if a guy has a reoccurring issue like Johan Santana, who has been out because of his shoulder for multiple seasons. That is obviously a huge red flag. Josh Johnson is a totally different case though. None of his injuries appear to be related. They are all seemingly random.

So Stewart, and any other 2013 draftee, could be added as a PTBNL to any trade that occurs starting in January basically. Thanks for looking that up.

Three points. First, IMO injuries only matter if they lead to a pre-existing condition that will prevent a player from pitching or pitching effectively. Johnson's injuries have been unconnected as far as I can tell. Now I'm not a doctor, maybe there is an underlying condition that has caused his problems in which case I would certainly have to reconsider my analysis. Second, I'd rather have, because I think it helps the team more, 20 starts by Johnson and 10 starts by [insert AAAA pitcher here] than 30 starts by [insert #3-#5 starter here]. Third, many players have been the definition of durable. Until they weren't. No pitcher is immune to injuries. Hello, Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, et. al. SIERA is currently considered to be the best ERA Estimator and Projection system available (with the exception of Steamer since I have not seen a direct comparison of the two and don't know how Steamer approaches it's projections). In Mathematical terms it scored the best in both Correlation and Root Mean Square Error in predicting future ERAs.

How long can a player be in PTBNL limbo?

No they do not. They only take into account how well a player pitched, not how often. To me though, injury history and IP mean very little with the exception of a player coming off a significant injury, like TJ surgery. If there is a specific reason why a pitcher may not be ready or may not be able to pitch, like Shaun Marcum in 2014, then it is important but I don't believe in "injury prone" as a label. Players are only "healthy" until they aren't and anybody can blow their elbow out, "injury prone" or not. I understand that there are different opinions on this and I am probably in the minority.

Why did you pick FIP? As a predictive stat it lags behind both xFIP and SIERA, which is currently the best on the market. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] SIERA 2010 2011 2012 2013 Avg. Jimenez 3.68 3.74 4.85 3.74 4.00 Santana 4.26 3.95 4.35 3.85 4.10 Johnson 3.10 3.36 3.86 3.73 3.51 [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] xFIP-1 2010 2011 2012 2013 Avg. Jimenez 90 95 121 91 99 Santana 103 97 108 93 100 Johnson 76 86 95 90 87 [/TABLE] 1 xFIP- is traditional xFIP that has been normalized so that 100 is average and for every whole number below 100 that player is 1% better than average. So an xFIP- of 90 means Johnson was 10% better than the average pitcher in 2013 (the fact that his ERA- was 152 is then attributable to unknown factors and bad luck). According to the two best metrics Johnson has been a better pitcher literally every season. The only thing that worries me about Johnson, and it is a pretty minor worry, is that his FB velocity has dropped 1 MPH over the last 2 seasons. Of course it still sits at 93 MPH so....

Here is the direct link to the article so you don't have to hunt for it on the main page. Justin Morneau Profile- MLBTradeRumors.com

It's amazing how different opinions can be on a guy. In this thread there is everything from "sign him for 1 year and $3-4 million," to "he'll command 3-4 years and $40-50 million." Personally I like Johnson more than just about every pitcher available this off season. Tough call between Jimenez, Santana or Johnson. If Johnson is looking for a 1 year make good contract I would love for the Twins to be aggressive, overspend on the first year to acquire an option year. If that means going 1 year $20 million with a second year option at $15 million I would be OK with that. I would certainly be in favor of overspending on 2 seasons if that means an option year in year 3 as well. IMO this kind of pitcher is exactly what the Twins should be looking for. Someone that has the potential to be a front line starter. The Twins don't have any currently and only have 1 potentially in the upper minors. After that you have to go all the way down to Kohl Stewart at A-Ball. It's pretty clear the Twins won't sign a Greinke quality player so the next best option, IMO, is to find a guy with flaws but potential and then be aggressive in pursuing him.

I agree, Nolasco does little for me. Speaking of Mr. Baker I wouldn't mind the Twins bringing him back. Even a 1 year deal would work for me though an option year would obviously be nice.

I don't follow Houston particularly closely and as such will not comment on what they should or should not be doing with their money. Similarly I am not stating how the Twins should spend the money, just that they should be spending it. I understand that this is a business and a profit is a prerequisite but once a budget is made and accepted then the money earmarked to be spent should be. Cash is a finite resource and shouldn't be squandered. Is anyone clamoring for the Twins to forfeit their #5 draft pick next season because it won't send the Twins to the playoffs? Then why should the cash be sacrificed? There are many ways to improve this team but forfeiting their money is not one of them.

I tried this same exercise following the season and came to the same general conclusion as you; there are a lot of pitchers vying for starting rolls, especially at the lower levels. A couple of notes, IMO. 1) Rochester and NB are very similar to mine except I think Duffey starts at FM. He wasn't overly impressive at FM to end the season. I think Jason Wheeler gets the start at NB instead. 2) Sulbaran will start at FM while Atherton, Shibuya and Boyd will be in the Pen to start the season. Brett Lee will fit in here as well. Interesting to see if he's starting or a reliever to begin the season. 3)Thorpe will pitch at Elizabethton this season. His arm isn't ready for full season ball at this point. He only pitched 44 innings in 2013. 4) It will be very interesting to see where Stewart and Gonsalves pitch this season. Berrios got pushed to Beloit in 2013 but there were more openings in the rotation. Beloit 2014 is going to be extremely crowded. Jorge, Landa and Rosario will be starting which only leaves 2 or 3 other slots. Eades, Slegers, Hein Robb, Gonsalves, Stewart, Kuo Hua Lo and Josue Montanez all could be looking for starts. 5) Elizabethton will have a similar problem with Thorpe, Gibbons, Romero, Chih-Wei Hu, other GCL pitchers (there were a bunch who got starts and it's sometimes tough to figure out who will be "starters" at Elizabethton) and possibly Stewart and Gonsalves plus any pitchers they draft in 2014.

Wasn't meadows the one the Twins were linked to the most? The one with less power potential but better contact and range? I get confused between the 2.

Kab I don't think we're disagreeing about the Pirates here. I think they're the fifth team and behind the Twins which is what it sounds like you believe as well. To continue the discussion with some minutia because that is fun sometimes, I don't disagree about Heredia, his stats have not backed up the scouts so far. That doesn't mean they won't in the future though. Interestingly he gives up few hits which compensates for his wildness. I'm not sure that is sustainable but it is intriguing. The Twins have some young arms with a lot of potential; Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Felix, Rosario, Landa; but they are so far away it is hard to compare them to AA and AAA players. In addition I don't know the Pirates system well enough to know how well their A- and Rk ball pitchers are thought of. If we limit ourselves to the more well known commodities, say A-ball and above, the Pirates have the better pitchers, IMO. Taillon is considered better than Meyer, though when it's all said and done I wouldn't be surprised if Meyer is the better pither. Glasnow is clearly a better prospect than Berrios and Kingham is better than May. After that the Twins have a bunch of guys with back end ceilings while the Pirates have a mid-rotation guy in Kyle McPherson, assuming he is healthy. The Twins might have the better young guys, again I don't know the Pirates' system well enough to comment either way, but above rookie ball it is hard to argue against the Pirates. As for McGuire and Meadows I said it's too early to judge based on the AB's they got this season. It is just a small sample size and it means little. I think it's fair to judge them on their scouting reports at this point and if you disliked McGuire before the draft well, he has done little to change opinions one way or the other.