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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Given the problems in New York, I wasn't sure what we were getting in Pavano. He seems to be a stand-up guy and if it's the end of the road, he'll likely go out with class and not attempt to steal from an unrealistically structured last contract. Baker can't be touched until the contract option issues ($9.5M?) are mutually agreed to be off the table. Would any insurance company short of LLoyds of London underwrite the policy on either one of these contracts for 2013?
  2. jokin
    A rebuilding team needs to do a lot better in the rebuilding process than its competitors to make an orderly return to competitive success- a key element of which is getting other teams to buy high, get quality in return at positions of need with commensurate salary relief to purchase that which you can't trade for- and not do what the Twins have been doing almost exclusively in recent years with the players they trade, selling at rock bottom.
  3. jokin
    I hope you're wrong, too, and if it were to occur, it better not be for guaranteed money, even at Marquis-levels.
  4. jokin

    Book it

    jokin replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk

    And if they end the Dunce-as-starter experiment.
  5. jokin

    Book it

    jokin replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk

    Did you see his splits posted tonight? As his recent minor league numbers indicated, .385 OBA v RH/.213 OBA v LH. If they have room next year for a 3rd lefty after Perk and Dunce, he could develop into a very good LOOGY, but beyond that.....?
  6. jokin
    You had to see it to disbelieve how wildly both Deduno and Manship were throwing (Deduno 5 BB and 1HBP and Manship w/ 2 BB). In addition, Cleveland might have set a record for foul balls hit as they were swinging and making poor contact with virtually everything being thrown up there, bailing out Deduno and Manship and then wildly flailing and missing balls in the dirt and out of the strike zone (7 Ks for the duo). Gardy was less than diplomatic about their performance at the press conference (136 pitches over 6 I). It was nice to see Roberston restore some sanity to this crazy game over 2 innings, he was less than stellar, but fireman of the year by comparison to the first two Twins throwers. It's difficult to describe how bad the Twins were (2-15 RISP with 5 unearned runs scored out of 7) but by comparison how truly Godawful the Indians were, their few remaining fans are in near-revolt.
  7. jokin
    You would have to admit, not all the confidence-boosting methods in the world will have the remotest chance of changing what IS is. It's a general theory both this year and last, and exposited today on the radio, that Gardy's hands are tied on this one and is following the directive from the front office. Sadly, despite the club remaining in denial, the odds are staggering that this can only end one way- with egg on everyone's face.
  8. jokin
    Too much, Gardy prefers "simple stuff." How about getting "creative" with the pitching staff so they become effective enough so that only 12 are rostered at any one time and then sticking with a two-man catching staff (has Butera vested his pension yet? If they go 3 Cs next year, I hope a more diversely talented guy like Hermann gets a decent shot at taking the #3 job). A manager can get a lot more creative with playing time with that extra bat on the bench. The days of a bench comprised of only the likes of Butera, Casilla, Tolbert, Harris et al, besides being embarrassing, have registered opportunity cost in the W-L record.
  9. jokin
    I've been begging for this transition to accelerate since soon after Koskie left the squad and Joe demonstrated his injury-proneness. For some reason the Twins and Mauer don't see the obvious help it would have brought to the team and still can, there's no doubt that he could: 1) play 3B decently, 2) extend his career and 3) help the team out greatly.
  10. jokin
    Yep, exactly. Dave St Peter can't fire himself in this non-knee-jerk organization. But I'm not sure if they've learned their lesson. Perhaps that's why "numbers guy", Bill Smith was left on the payroll and kept in a hermetically sealed room- to continue having fun with numbers so he and DSP can scheme up a new marketing coup in [insert country here].
  11. jokin
    Well, actually we don't have much control, but it's more than zero. The customer's not always right, but consensus public opinion in a definite direction can lead to changes. Pohlad clearly stated there were no management changes needed last fall- the MN Twins is not a "knee jerk" operation. It can be argued that he did take a reading of the public through opinion boards and ticket sales that filtered up through levels of the Twins' decision-making bureaucracy, and voila, Bingo Bill Smith was gone less than 30 days later.
  12. jokin
    Agreed about the 3-month hot streak.....Except those consistent high minor league numbers suggest some level of similar success is likely to last longer than 3 months as his career progresses. Says a lot more about management than Revere that the Twins envisioned that Clete Thomas would ever be capable of a "Clete-Thomas-hot-streak". It's not a frequent item in his resume at any level. I think the whole thing with Revere was protecting Span's psyche and potential value down the road as he attempted his comeback from last year's lost, injury-riddled season.
  13. jokin
    Minor correction, Revere is 24. The fact that they started out so awfully and didn't know what they had in the SPs, Revere, Valencia, Plouffe, Morneau, Parmelee is telling that they didn't have a real handle on what they had or a cogent plan to compete. Caught between rebuilding and reloading, impossible to do both, but not able to admit they must do the former if there's any hope to compete long-term. That said, the last few days have been fun as expected and unexpected guys have stepped up and nothing wrong with enjoying the short-term while still being mindful of long-term priorities. But, reality still bites, as this overall "team improvement" is mirage-like: Twins June-July record in 2011: 33-22 Twins June-July record in 2012: 26-27
  14. jokin
    Nope, just a slump away from "mediocre":o
  15. jokin
    What player isn't one hamstring injury away from being a lousy player? Revere is only 24, virtually everybody last year said he had hit his ceiling and now look where he is. I agree that he likely will regress back closer to .300, but look what he's been able to accomplish during his "out of his head" stretch even with Mauer behind him in a mini-slump (206/292/353 in last 9 games). And he's not just a better base-stealer, but a much better guy on the bases, stealing and everything else, Span at times can look lost, confused, asleep or scared on the basepaths. It seems the (admittedly flawed) Sabre-valuation numbers are overvaluing Revere and the Sabre-guys want to put a stop to the madness. Is there a new valuation number floating around out there somewhere that corrects for Over-BABIP and Over-UZR metrics? It's my understanding that Baseball Reference uses lower defensive values.
  16. jokin
    Only in UZR, I guess.
  17. jokin
    This, but only if they don't screw up on the acquired trading assets.
  18. jokin
    Under those strict criteria he's definitely not elite and without additional power and more plate discipline he has no hopes of ever becoming Josh Hamilton, but then, you are a demanding grader. He is valuable, projecting out as #2 (#1, if he possibly catches Trout?) in SB and admittedly underrated as #2 in UZR for 2011-12 and batting .300, even with a low OBP, are still numbers virtually all players would kill for. If he does go on the block, the Twins can't repeat past faulty talent assessment mistakes like Garza, Gomez, Young, Dickey and Lohse.
  19. jokin
    Yes. I proposed this earlier in the season, with Mauer rightfully moving up to the 2 spot.
  20. jokin
    And yet these numbers are similar to his entire MiLB career. All three proposed OF are non-qualifiers, but here is their current valuation: Revere $12.7 Parra $8.3 Bourjos $6.8 UZR/150- Defensive metrics 2011-12 Revere 18.2 Bourjos 16.3 Parra 11.7 As RP mentioned, these numbers for Revere would be higher if he were playing full-time in CF as Bourjos and Parra are. I can't say that any contender would want Revere over who they currently have, but Revere would be a cheap alternative in CF for the next 5 years, not only allowing dollars to be allocated to other areas of need, but also with his personality and weekly highlight reel defense, a ticket-revenue enhancer.
  21. jokin
    Yes, but I think RP thinks his numbers are unsustainable, when in fact, his MiLB numbers suggest he can maintain a pace close to this- an elite level for as long as he maintains his speed- especially with Mauer and Willingham behind him for plate protection. As I stated, the Twins better be listening for offers on EVERYONE.
  22. jokin
    .300 average, projects to 40+ SB, and ranked as the #2 UZR rated OF for 2011-12 is not elite?
  23. jokin
    I second your second paragraph and agree with the last sentence of your first. But Wade Boggs, Lou Brock and Ty Cobb, and more directly to the Twins- Kirby Puckett and Rod Carew- made out OK relying on BABIP and I think they are regarded pretty highly as that sort of player. I believe a study has been done on Revere's contact rate, it's off the charts all the time, not just when he's playing out of his mind.
  24. jokin
    Uhh, you do realize that he is in position to contend for the batting title and his WAR of 2.8 is just short of Torii Hunter's 2.9? He's also the #2 ranked OF in UZR for 2011-12. You are on the right track in his trade value, a pitching-rich team in dire need of an inexpensive CF is the most likely suitor (is there currently one out there?).
  25. jokin
    The Twins FO would be guilty of malfeasance, given the current state of the Twins, if they aren't offering everyone- on every vine- all for the hope of getting something close to the right price in return. I just took issue with your expectation and characterization of Revere's game that he will possibly "revert to a mediocre player overnight."
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