jokin

Marquis made a nice "major adjustment" going back to the NL...

This is the actual lineup I'd endorse (w/ the exception of Carroll substituting for Dozier) when the next manager of the Twins takes over at the All-Star break...

These aren't guys working in underground caves looking forward to "graduation", unaware of what the other group in the "advanced" adjoining cave are recommending at the major league level. There were/are harder-throwing ML FAs available, the Twins chose not to aggressively pursue them, except for speculative reclamation projects. Choose for yourself to speculate on the reasons why they weren't signed, but regardless, I agree that it's past time to "out" the evaluation staff out of their cave(s).

Nothing personal, but this post might look stupid, right now. The very quote above: "But I have a lot of faith and trust in people that have seen him, and they were adamant that this guy can help us. He's a little bit better than a fifth starter. ..." demonstrates that this GM made a panic-signing based on a reckless thought process, and is in severe back-pedal mode. This article is reminiscient of all the FO "apologies" and excuses made about Nishi in spring training of his debut year. Those names still haven't been named, will the "adamant" scouts on this deal stay similarly anonymous?

The problem there is Mastro will already be in there in CF, at least for the first month, or two, or three, and Plouffe and Doumit look like the 5th OFer options at this point. Recent past history suggests a Clete Thomas or Brandon Boggs-type heading north from ST as the #4 "someone else" OF. Regardless, there's no way to sugarcoat it, the OF defense will be much worse, not the top complaint, to be sure, but still a big concern for an already-shaky pitching staff.

But what if you have both (like this year's squad)? I can forsee a lot of "routine" singles gapping to the wall, and "pop flies" falling in for singles with the corner OFs having to play so deep. And without one strikeout pitcher in the rotation, the Twins Way of PItch to Contact will possibly result in no improvement in the Twins near-historical 5.40 ERA pitching putridity of 2012. The Twins had a combined starting pitching WAR of 3.1, there were 40 pitchers who had that WAR or higher, just by themselves. Methinks the Twins are looking at threatening that number to the downside, in some part due to the defensive downgrade the Twins inflicted upon themselves.

Now I know you're trolling.

Seth, considering what they've invested in Amaurys Minier, when and where would he debut on your ranking scale? Also, does your exclusion of Baxendale, Chargois, Thielbar, Slama and Stuifbergen from your top 30 indicate that they are out of favor with the Twins staff and may never get a serious shot at making the big club? (it's obvious what the Twins think about Slama, despite his dominating Minor League numbers). Did Jeremias Pineda impress enough in his stint with the Rookie team to have a shot at breaking into this list, or is he going to be lapped by the talent around him at his level and just above him?

What is it you love? Must be referring to 70s all-out effort at staying classy when he runs out of knee-jerk-supportive FO paeans, shibboleths and apologias dedicated to the oh-so-put-upon-woe-is-us Twins FO?

How can anyone know exactly what "the plan" is when the Twins FO talks out of both sides of their collective mouth? The watchword shoud always be, "watch what they do, not what they say". This has demontrated itself eminently this offseason. I, as one of many, knowing full-well the Pohlad's reluctant ownership history of the Twins, had chosen to believe them when they began the back-channel whispering campaign that they were embarking on a multi-year process of cutting payroll, in the latter half of the 2011 season. This of course, was patently absurd on its face- with conceivably 2 of the best players in the game in their prime, and locked up in high dollar contracts just recently inked- but fit in well with the "commitment" level that the club had made to the community in getting Target Field built. Nice "plan"! So far, notwithstanding what has amounted to PR White Noise to the contrary, the trend is clearly heading South- ultimately to a payroll in the $50-60M range by 2015. Anyone remember the last time someone in the FO talked about the 50% of revenue for payroll "rule"?

Mauer had only 192 PAs w/RISP in 2012. Span and Revere reached base 183 & 182 times, totaling 365 reaches. Combining their abilities to reach base at a high proficiency in the first place, hit for Doubles and Triples 61 times combined, efficiently steal a base, take the extra base on balls in play, and run out of the DP situations at both 1B & 2B, you don't see a chance for a significant drop off in Mauer RISP opportunities? The 192 PAs w/RISP works out to 1.31 RISP chances per game for Mauer's 147 games played in 2012, I can easily see that number dropping to 1.00 or lower in 2013. Simply put, there are going to be a lot more outs made by the 9,1 & 2 hitters in 2013..... (FYI, hitting in front of Span, Carroll was a great #9 hitter @ .357OBP! The Twins were 3rd in the league at OBP in the #9 slot @ .303. I can easily envision our #9 OBP dropping to the bottom close to Oakland As levels of OBP .258, or worse)...... combined with a lot less extra bases taken in those 3 slots just in front of Mauer. Example: Tampa Bay's primary #3 hitter, Ben Zobrist got only 100 RISP opportunities with the Rays- with their right around 10th or 11th best OBP numbers- in the 9,1 & 2 slots.

Span had an OBP of .339 in the Leadoff spot. That would have been 6th overall in AL team comparisons. Revere had an OBP of .340 in the 2-Hole. That would have been 4th overall in AL team comparisons. The Twins led the AL in Stolen Bases in the 1 & 2 spots combined with 72- finishing #1 in the 2-hole and #5 at Leadoff. Their percentages were high, too, around an 80% success rate. Span and Revere provided $32.6M worth of value to the Twins. Mastro turns 28 this year and has never played significantly in the majors until last year's 77 games played. Carroll turns 39 next month. Hicks has played only AA ball and historically has taken time to adjust at each level of progression. You think he will get a cup of coffee at Rochester and then come in right away and produce numbers like Span? Again, expecting a drop-off to Mariner-type numbers (.281 OBP leadoff/ .286 OBP in the 2-hole) might be too harsh a prediction as Carroll produced a .327 OBP in the #1 and #2 spots, combined. But there's no doubt there's going to be a significant drop-off, regardless, unless Hicks and Mastroianni miraculously defy the odds. Don't forget that Gardy will experiment with Dozier, Flori and Esco up at the top of the order, too.

All great, but his RISP opportunities will likely be cut by at least one-third this year.

Not much use for a high BAw/ RISP when there won't be many RISPs in the first place (and hitting W/ RISP has an element of luck, anyway), it can't be emphasised enough how bad the Twins project to be at the top of the order, I'm talking Seattle Mariners bad. BTW, I'm not one of the fans you're talking about in Mauer pulling the ball more, just take a few more cuts on a slight upward plane to get some more lift out of the infield. That's why the Red Sox were salivating about Mauer using the Green Monster like a billiard cushion.

GDPs as a negative stat are over-emphasised, to be sure. But on the downside and possibly somewhat concerning long-term, Mauer's GB/FB was almost as bad as his especially bad 2011 season (2.35 vs. 2.57), his GB% was 52.6% vs. his 2011 career-worst 55.4%, that and career lows the past 2 seasons in FB% indicate that he has adopted a somewhat consistently shorter and flatter plane on his swing. I would gladly trade some of those all-too-many seeing-eye carpet-crawling singles in exchange for a slightly lower OBP and more gap doubles and FBs off the wall from the #3 spot in the order. Also, his K% was a glaringly-noticeable career-high of 13.4%. That being said, minimizing his catching duties can help maintain him in producing a rich-man's version of a Wade Boggs-career set of numbers through the end of his contract (Mauer has a career OPS of .873 vs Bogg's .858 career OPS). All of this still strongly suggests that Mauer should be batting #1 or #2 ( It's arguable that Mauer should bat #1 depending on how quickly Hicks adapts to big-league pitching).

They don't call him "Grasping Gardy" for nothing.

120 more innings of mediocrity is not much of a sop, and being a year younger with all those extra innings on his arm kind of cancels out the one-year younger age advantage thing. I previously looked at the 5 year stats and they weren't all that great of a difference, with many stat numbers favoring Correia. The ERA+ stats for 3 year performance which you cite mask some of the glaring stats that compare less favorably to Saunders than Correia, or at best, similarly poorly. The right hand bat difficulties illustrated above really points to potential looming problems in Target Field. Here are some examples of other 3-year comps that belie the ERA+ differential: Kevin Correia 5.41K*9/4.26xFIP/.268OBA/14%K%/1.38WHIP Joe Saunders 5.09K*9/4.36xFIP/.275OBA/13.4%K%/1.37WHIP Sign Marcum!

The Rays have 6/7 SS on their 40-man roster, with Escobar, Zobrist and Elliot Johnson listed as the top 3 on their depth chart. They also have a superstar in the making on the 40-man in Hak-Ju Lee, just 22 years old. The Twins could trade a legit prospect to get him or get one of the 2 guys the Rays might be forced to waive due to the numbers game. I really like Sean Rodriguez (age 27), or take a strong look at former top draft choice, Tim Beckham, playing AAA ball at age 22 and in severe need of a fresh start with a new organization. Blacklisted Ryan Brett would be a great get at 2B, possibly available in an inconsequential trade and maybe only a year and a half away from taking over Second Base at age 22.

Not yours or my money, so, yeah, "who cares?" The Twins FO certainly does and carrying the risk of a 40 year old utility guy at $2M when you will have plenty of alternative options for less than $1/2M by 2014 makes it likely that Carroll will be gone. If he is having a good season at the top of the order in 2013, the Twins would be guilty of malfeasance if they didn't consider moving him for a prospect before the deadline. You're correct, the only MI they should consider for the top 2 spots should be Carroll, but that won't stop Gardy from jamming square pegs (Dozier, Flori, Esco) into round holes- remember that Gardy loved himself a lot of Lil' Nicky's first-base sliding, lousy OPS/OPB in the #2-hole in Punto's early days with the Twins.

What Twins fan wouldn't be stoked if Parmelee could have a Nick Johnson-type career? What the heck, why not just sign Johnson and make him your #2-hole guy, batting DH to show Parmelee how it's done. He'll undoubtedly sign for cheap, perhaps a minor league deal. You could move Mauer to a platoon slot @ Third and pt Catcher to make room for Johnson's bat in the lineup. If it proves that Johnson has nothing left in the tank, you can soon part ways early in the season with nothing lost and perhaps something gained with Parmelee learning something from the old pro.

I agree on the pressure argument being the prime negative to the prospect of moving Parmelee up. Sadly, this is probably the argument that Gardy & Co. would least likely consider in their conventional opposition to making the move. They would no doubt publicly counter with his inability to play at 2nd base, lack of bunting skills and speed, career SLG and OBP averages way too high for the #2-hole, etc. I've already shown that at least 2 teams have been quite successful throwing that old-school "conventional wisdom" on its ear. I just think that in a lost season, no chance for slotting Mauer at #2, the incentive at keeping Carroll's PAs under 401 and with the remaining alternatives being simply dreadful, it sure seems worth the small gamble at giving Parmelee a shot and see if he responds to the challenge. If he does fall flat on his face, my answer would be "so what?"; the Twins have already thrown up the white flag, time to experiment a little and see what ya got, nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Thankyou! This is exactly what I was alluding to in my post of a few days ago, ie, If you like Correia mediocrity, you should love Saunders- 'cause he'll guarantee you even more "workhorse" innings of mediocrity- only in mirror form. Adding insult to self-inflicted injury- some are suggesting at throwing caution to the wind and paying him more, much more- and with an extra year on the contract. Saunders would get crushed by right-handed bats at Target Field.

That order does make a lot of sense and is why Gardy won't use it. He'll have Mastro/Hicks at the top and Carroll/Dozier in the 2-slot, with Florimon or one of the above in the #9 spot. I could see one minor adjustment, keeping the L/R splits going by flipping Plouffe and Parmelee. On the matter of Parmelee, I think with the dearth of punch at the top of the order and the likelihood that Hicks won't be seeing action until at least his Super2 Arb date at the earliest, it's time to consider the highly unconventional as a possible antidote to the hitting conundrum the Twins have placed themselves into: Chris Parmelee in the #2 slot. That's right, I said it. Left-handed pull hitter? Check. Contact hitter? Check. Low GIDP rate? Check. High OBP rate? Check. Before you completely dismiss the notion because of his obvious (conventional) flaws in the 2-hole, consider the following points: 1) Parm would greatly benefit hitting in front of Mauer and behind the always-baserunning threat represented by Mastro and eventually, Hicks....versus....hitting in front of an automatic out and behind the lumbering herd in the #7#8 spot. 2) Bill James projects that Parmelee will have the #2 OBP on the team @ .359 with Mauer #1 (.407) and Willingham #3 @ .354. This fits perfectly within your definition of having Parmelee up at the top of the order, not at the bottom! Since Mauer is never going to be moved from the 3 spot, the logical choice is Parmelee. 3) The AL average slash line for the #2 spot in 2012 was : .254/.314/.389/.703 Bill James projects Parm to produce this slash in 2013: .274/.359/.457/.816. Even if this is optimistic, it leaves considerable room on the downside for Parm to significantly outproduce the league at the spot. 4) The top team in production for the #2 spot in the AL in 2012? I'm glad you asked. Why, that would be the New York Yankees, here's their slash: .253/.341/.479/.820 (The next closest OPS was .771 by the Angels!) This was produced with Nick Swisher getting a big chunk of the ABs. Here's his slash in the 2-hole: .244/.347/.449/.796 Granderson got a little over 50% of the ABs in the spot with this slash: .249/.341/.517/.858 According to James for 2013, Parmelee projects to walk at or near the same rate as both (11.0%) and strike out much less than either (only 18.3%). 5) JJ Hardy batted primarily lead off or #2 in 2011. Here's his slash line for both: .269/.310/.491/801 Batting almost exclusively in the #2 spot in 2012: .238/.282/.389/.671 He added 20 HRs to his total. Shouldn't the Twins be thrilled if they got production (including a 20HR season) somewhere inbetween those 2 seasons in the 2-spot? I have to believe that might be the best #2 line in Twins history short of a terrific Carew season when he got the bulk of his ABs in the #2 spot. BTW, Hardy had ZERO SBs in 2012, Swisher had all of 3 SBs, Granderson had 6 SBs in the #2 spot. Swisher and Granderson each had only 1 sacrifice bunt in 2012, Hardy had 2 in 2011. 6) I would venture to guess that Bill James' projections would tend to be made based on Parmelee batting at the bottom of the order. Isn't it possible that if Parmelee can handle the pressure and responsibility of batting 2nd that it would give him greater hitting opportunities to have a shot at meeting and possibly exceeding the James projections? Why don't we take a chance and find out?

On point one, we are in firm agreement, in FAgency, like the stock market, there are speculations and investments, with their own risk/reward ratios. Correia and Saunders don't qualify for either category, just money poorly utilized, particularly at the theoretical number you threw out there for Saunders. On point 2, Marcum actually represents a decent investment of their money, a higher level of quality with a more predictable potential for positive return and retained trade value. The "flabbergast" that many of us are venting about, is throwing 2 years at Correia and then possibly seeing the Twins going into panic mode and committing even more good money after bad for a guy with way worse peripherals than Correia. If the likes of Bedard and Jurrjens still have a pulse, sign them for virtually nothing along with a quality arm that won't break the bank in Marcum and then you have more than enough depth options to get you through the lost season that will be 2013. This can all set up quite nicely with a flyer or two strking gold or silver-and an additional quality FA SP next year with the coming payroll relief- to build for the future with your group of the young nucleus of guys knocking at the door- between 2013-2015.

I am extremely wary of Saunders at the quoted cost and potential years committed to a deal. They already screwed up on Correia; if Saunders starts breaking down in the out year of his contract, do they really want to potentially saddle themselves with possibly 2 Blackburn-like dead-weights in 2014 and/or 2015 when better FA SPs may become available in the next 2 years? If a lefty starter is such a prize get in this FA market, why have the Twins dawdled when there were other cheaper and possibly nearly as good or better options available? John Lannan, as mediocre as he is, is 4 years younger at only 28, and counting his minor league innings, he has averaged 187 innings per year over the last 5 years, vs. Saunders 194.2 innings. Their 5 year stats are somewhat surprisingly, and remarkably, close- Lannan 4.53FIP/4.81K*9/12.3K%/1.42WHIP ....... Saunders 4.60FIP/4.97K*9/13.1K%/1.35WHIP. Lannan was signed for one year @ $2.5M. Jeff Francis is the same age as Saunders and here's his 5-year line: 4.29FIP/5.43K*9/13.8K%/1.44WHIP- he signed 1 year @ $1.5M. Paul Maholm has signifcantly better numbers than any of the above and could have been acquired on the cheap one year ago, and is currently only making $6.5M- he doesn't miss a start and has averaged 187.2 innings over the last 5 years with a 12.2 WAR. Eric Bedard has the best 5 year numbers of any of these lefties: 3.88FIP/8.7K*9/22.6K%/1.33 WHIP. Bedard may very well be available on a make-good or minor league deal. The bottom line is- how much will the Twins be willing to overpay for a very mediocre innings eater? Why don't they just go all-in and actually put the money to good use and get Marcum for a 2-year deal (and offer Bedard on the cheap to get their lefty)?