jokin
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Everything posted by jokin
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So...about that pitch to contact philosophy
jokin replied to whydidnt's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
And that he strikes out a ton of guys, a strikeout pitcher, always among the league leaders. (See my statistical post up-thread for the numbers). Christy was definitely off on this one with the P2C premise. -
Article: Pressure is on for Twins starters
jokin replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Does Worley still have an option left? A trip to the minors seems entirely therapeutically necessary, if not imminent. His WHIP and BAA numbers are the worst for any starter over the last 2 years. These numbers are the worst in 2012 of any SP in all of baseball. And his current ERA is in the Blackburn/Hernandez range and only a little over one run better than Swarzak or Marquis (the worst Twins SPs in ERA, in the 8.00+ range) put up as starters in 2012. The thing about Hernandez is the Twins still have a possible need for a lefty in the pen. I gotta think Worely will be gone soon, unless Pelfrey has a health setback first. It's good to have competition for the starting spots, even if it's trading mediocrity for another mediocrity, or for a rookie with something to prove. -
What on earth inaccuracies are you talking about? It appears that you are intentionally missing the point. The challenge was put out that no team with a record as woeful as the Twins would go out and spend money in an attempt to become immediately competitive- and that challenge was most affirmatively answered- Oh yes they would! The Blue Jays committed up to $28M to two new players and pulled off two blockbuster trades. Increasing payroll from such a large base amount by over 50% in one season simply doesn't happen too often. On the first blockbuster deal, they traded for, and only got a de facto free agent, RA Dickey, because they were willing to extend him 3 more years for a total commitment to him of up to $41M. On the other trade with the Marlins, the amount of guaranteed money the Jays absorbed was $165M, a sum so monumentally unprecedented, the deal had to be approved by Commissioner Selig.
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All of that is true, and I'm sure you would agree that the Twins have signed pretty good position players and relief pitcher FAs, right? I am certainly not, and never have been in, the camp that would say: "sign crappy FAs just to spend your money."---which is actually, with respect to SPs, what the Twins did this year and last! To me, the signings should always have purposeful intent, with Plan A and B options. And I can give you plenty of "clear upgrades" in the SP market that the Twins could have acquired on one or two year deals, both this year and last.
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It isn't a question of "belief". This isn't the Houston Astros or Miami Marlins we're talking about here. It was demonstrable after 2011- they still were largely composed of the team you yourself admitted was "good" in 2010, or did you forget that? And they certainly have a core of strong players in 2013, statistically demonstrable, on this year's team, whether you choose to believe it, or not.
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I'm not following your logic here. To repeat and paraphrase what you stated, "it makes no sense to spend within your proscribed payroll number to get better players, to build around your existing strong core group----because---ready for it---that's not going to give you the best team you can put on the field." To me anyway, that's very hard to understand.
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Loving it. Anybody else heading down to CR next weekend? Besides the aforementioned, I specifically want to see Berrios pitch (hopefully better than today- Next Friday start?), Polanco and Kane County's Rock Shoulders (Cubs April MiL Player of the Month).
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Buck still has at least 2PAs left to get a HR and complete the cycle (and possibly put the Kernels over 30 runs for the day!).
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The team was, you know, good, in 2010. 3rd best AL record. The very solid core was all returning in 2011. Oh yeah, they were also playing in the state of the art, award-winning, taxpayer-financed, brand new Target Field. A playground that Jim Pohlad was on record assuring the fans would supply the added revenues from which would insure that the team would be unhampered from making the necessary moves to keep the team, you know, good. A few more offseason moves (or rententions) after '11 and again after '12 and you can see this '13 team would be knocking on the door of the AL Central lead yet again.
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You conveniently left out the part about their overall offseason activity. You do realize through their acquisitions, the Blue Jays payroll jumped by over 50% from $83.7M in 2012 to $127.8M in 2013, right? Baseball Prospectus | Compensation | Baseball Prospectus Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the Twins payroll dropped by about 20%.
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So...about that pitch to contact philosophy
jokin replied to whydidnt's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Partially right. His K rates are better with RISP than Bases Empty in both 2011 and 2012 for the only times in his career, but so far not so in 2013, or any time before 2011. However, on the broader generalizations you asserted, it's hard to qualify Verlander as MORE of a pitch to contact pitcher in his later years and in his younger years, he was definitely LESS of a "try to strike everybody out" guy. This guy is definitely a strike out pitcher, always was: Verlander 2010-2013: K/9: 9.0 (ranks #6 SP) K%: 25.0% (ranks #4 SP) Verlander 2005-2009: K/9: 7.99 (ranks #28 SP) K%: 21.0% (ranks #28 SP) -
There's already talk in the Twins clubhouse that Hernandez is on "call" for today and tomorrow in the shorthanded pen. I think it's near the point of 50-50 odds that Gibson gets the spot start on Monday.
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Trevor May bounces back from his last outing with a complete game, 2-hit shutout against the very good Red Sox affiliate, Portland. I'm thinking he can turn the corner here and get a September call-up.
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Trevor May 2 hit complete game Shutout.
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Excellent points, Nick. Seth Stohs confirmed in another thread what we all know. Considerations other than the best individual developmental career paths always come into play with Twins prospects.
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Really out on a limb with that last prediction, Christy!
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Actually, between 2004 and 2007, BJ Upton did bounce back and forth, regardless of your own definition of "bouncing." The larger point in the matter, it hasn't hurt Upton's long-term career path by the Rays aggressive fast-tracking of him. See other posts I have made recently, citing his stats and expert evaluations. I'm not alone in this assessment that Buxton is putting up the numbers and has passed the eye-test with his skill-set.
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I'd settle for the 2 year time frame of the aforementioned players, the Upton's or Trout/ Machado.
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Why not a September call-up? Seems like a misassessment unless Arcia was injured.
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The early knock on Buxton was that he might be only be a 45-55 power guy, he apparently had a hitch in his power swing. That is currently shaping up to be an assessment that may have to be amended. Buck's current ISO rate is .264 with a .632 SLG. By contrast, Justin Upton had a .151 ISO with a .413 SLG at Class A. His rookie year with the D-Backs 2 years later, Upton had a .213 ISO with a .463 SLG. Of course, Buxton is bound to regress down a bit from his current power rate---But--- Imagine a reassessment upgrade of Buxton's power potential.... with better plate discipline than Justin Upton. Both players have a similar frame and height. Buxton will certainly gain 15 pounds of man muscles in the near future to match Upton's current weight of 205#s. Does anyone really think that Buxton DOESN'T have a shot at being a, at least occasionally, 30-30 guy?
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Except both Upton brothers started their pro careers in Low A. And I wouldn't have a problem if Buxton bounces back and forth from the major league club before he finally sticks. The Twins have $6M invested in him up front. Let's see what we've got, "Upton-like Sooner" rather than the possibly needlessly Twins' "SOP Later."
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Correia's start last night didn't give you at least some pause from your attempt at light-hearted humor? The Twins make decisions based on many factors, only some of which are based on actually putting the best players in the best situations for their career development. Even Seth admitted in this very thread that your affiliate's deservedmess at their shot at a playoff spot possibly trumps the best developmental interests of any one particular player.
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Head-poundingly, mind-numbingly inane comments from the Twins FO on Buxton, per Dougie: "Phil Mackey laid out a compelling case for Twins outfield prospect Byron Buxton, 19, making it to the majors relatively soon. In many ways, (Twins Vice President for Player Personnel, Mike) Radcliff agrees: "He'll dictate." Buxton is often compared to Braves outfielder B.J. Upton because both were the No. 2 overall pick out of high school. Upton made his major league debut two years after signing. "He's a way better hitter than Upton," Radcliff said of Buxton. "Upton is a nice player, a plus defender. ... But Buxton has a swing that will allow him to hit for average. It's the fastest, quickest, most direct swing you'll see." So, we will see Buxton at High-A Fort Myers soon? "That's not imminent," Radcliff said. Buxton is hitting .373/.488/.647 with 15 extra-base hits, 13 stolen bases and 31 runs scored in his first 28 games for Low-A Cedar Rapids." If truth be told, Buxton actually compares well with the best features of both Upton brothers. And BOTH Upton brothers were called up to their major league teams as 19 year-olds. Even the extremely frugal Rays put their Upton brother on the fast track. As for the Twins? Well, they admit their prospect is better than at least one Upton, and they'll let Buxton "dictate" his promotion--- but his "dictation" to this point has proven to make his promotion "not imminent." Got it, Mike!