jokin
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Everything posted by jokin
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Get used to a lot of Mays and Meyers (Myers) mis-usages over the next few years.
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The Twins, attributed through a source "close to the situation", made the admission 2 years ago through the main-stream-media of significant and continued payroll-cutting over the next 2-3 seasons likely being their prime objective- projections of a payroll as low as $50-55M were even openly speculated upon. The fates of Cuddyer, Kubel and Nathan were largely sealed after the July 31 trading deadline and during the ensuing public disclosure and debate, with some 60 games still on the schedule. The high supplemental draft picks were obviously discerned to be the lynchpin in jump-starting a long-term rebuild. Again, this happened 2 years ago in 2011, during this month of August, and obviously Bill Smith wasn't the source. So far, they have held up their source's end of that admission fully.
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I wish Phil Miller would have directed that question to his "Homey".
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Which again, begs the question, why did they bother in the first place?
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You can even play out the logic in making the claim: pick up Morse from the M's and move Morneau, you fill the hole short-term at 1B, you still save money, net-net, and maybe breakeven or better in the prospects you either move or acquire in Willingham and Morneau trades. Plus, Morse is due for a bounceback in 2014, and the Twins get a headstart in the chances at signing him and keeping him off the FA market before it even opens.
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Which brings up the question, couldn't the Twins have blocked that Orioles move by claiming Morse? (A guy who they should be considering in the off-season anyway?
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This is an old POV, but I think still lingers in the Twins way of thinking- it goes along the lines in the theory that the Twins originally embraced P2C for economic reasons as their only fiscally viable way to remain competitive during, and right after, the contraction era. K-heavy pitchers are generally more in demand, thus driving up their price of retention, and riskier, as they break down more easily. Recent history should raise alarm bells, league average K/9 rates have steadily risen since 2005, from 6.38K/9 then, to 7.56K/9 today. Meanwhile, the Twins peaked in their K/9 rate in 2006 at 7.28 and have steadily and continually dropped in the waning years of the 00s, to finally cratering to the worst in the league over the last 3 years at right around 6.0K/9. And as Puck pointed out, the K/9 gap in 2013 between 29th place and 30th place is yawning, and an even more distinct point of distinction for the Starting Pitchers. In 2006, the Twins SP had a K/9 of 6.83 vs. a League Average K/9 of 6.21. In 2013, the Twins SP K/9 is TWO FULL Ks lower/9IP, at 4.83, vs a League Average K/9 of 7.15. Hope for trends changing in the minors? Yes, Meyer, May and Darnell have nice K/9 numbers this year. But in taking a look at the top 3 Twins farm clubs and strikeouts and K/9 rates, the AAA club ranks last, and both the AA and A+ clubs are 9th (out of 12).
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I'm guessing the Twins passed on that option as they probably thought Trackman had something to do with Pacman, determining that it too, is no longer compatible with their Atari 2600 system.
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I don't think Revere collapsed at all, he definitely doesn't qualify as a "sell high" example. From May 1 until his injury, he was among the top 5-10 hitters in every offensive category except power, with the 2nd most hits of anyone in baseball. And Span, after his very slow start, with a July/August slash of .292BA/.750OPS is actually producing above his career slash of .282BA/.737OPS, and is cost controlled to 2016. IMHO, these trades weren't made with recognition of, and respect to, selling high, but simply of necessity to improve the club with the only desirable assets available. The others you mentioned are really ancient history, especially Knoblach, and he of course, demanded the trade,- and AJ also doesn't really qualify as a "Sell High" transaction, as his best years came after the trade (still Ryan's top trade overall, on that I'm sure we both agree!).
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While a .545 OBP for August is pretty incredible, I think it's important to note that Buck's SLG for the month is almost as incredible without the long ball as a contributing factor to the metric, it's .519, yielding an OPS in August of .1064, in a "pitcher's league", with pitchers deliberately pitching around him, and in his first "full season" baseball. Yep, pretty incredible. Watch for him to exceed expectations in the AFL.
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I think the front office working on "getting" how the "sell high" notion works should be Priority #1 on their offseason "Master Rebuild Plan" to-do list.
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I'm actually relieved that Willingham wasn't moved at what is likely the low ebb value of his current contract. To Terry Ryan's credit, he didn't scuttle Josh, as Bill Smith did Thome, for $20,000. There's still potential value left in Willingham to the Twins, just as there was for Thome.
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I would hazard a guess that this identical argument was made by many right after the 2010 season about 2 certain other Twins players (we all know who), except they were already established veterans. Even if both Sano and Buxton play more than 50% of the Twins' schedule next year (highly unlikely itself), without the additional unlikely happenstances of: 1) significant personnel upgrades (via trade or FA? both seem inoperative options and/or highly unlikely), 2)other impact rookie/2nd year player breathroughs, and, 3)strong bounceback years from this years' slumping veterans, another miserable W-L record in 2014 seems pretty inevitable.
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Critical pull-quotes from your cited article in support of SIERA:
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Sooo.... I shouldn't make my Parade-attending plans just yet? Along with "belief" that we'll be Parading in 2015, I prefer a lot of supporting evidence, as well... and IMHO, prudently and intelligently NOT using a readily-available resource of $$$ doesn't count as supporting evidence for a sooner-completed rebuild over a later one.
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SIERA has come on as a stat strong in predictive value, as well. SIERA | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library
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"Conventional Wisdom" remains in effect until "Actual Reality" finally smacks it in the head with a 2X4 or elevates it to genius-game-changing-thought. The fact is, the truth on the final merit of the trade is still a moving target, let's revisit the topic a year from now and see if it's collected ether more barbs or bouquets- or something inbetween, ie, the "right move" can still turn out being a disaster, and one has to wonder if Ryan had sufficient time to do total and complete due diligence on both Worley and May, given that it was Amaro who unexpectedly approached Ryan on his hot deal, and not vice versa.
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Was "Mays" and "Meyers" a typo, or are you hoping for 2 of each "high upside arm" coming in trade?
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No intermediary usage here on my part. This is specifically addressed to the poster in question, who in this instance, saw fit to repeating his meme here with the apparent further ammunition from this article, about some "consensus opinion"; an opinion that he still hasn't been able or willing to document, despite repeated requests for verification concerning his claim of how the Twins are exultantly regarded by "national experts".
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This is a great point, a franchise that seeks to gain advantage through inefficiencies like the Twins should appreciate it better- if only they weren't so concerned about Priority #1- coming in under the current fiscal year budget. IMO, and I've stated as such at the times in question, the Twins have missed taking advantage of numerous August trading opportunities with motivated sellers in '11, '12 and likely will again in '13.
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Even more hopefully, different evaluators are utilized than those from the last foray to Japan....
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Reverse Standings and the 2014 MLB Draft
jokin replied to cmb0252's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
You may have spotted a developing trend. 5 of the 8 Twins relievers are having a worse second half in terms of ERA than the first half. But surprisingly, the Twins RP ERA is 2.90 for the second half and 3.17 in the first half, as Swarzak, Duensing and Roenicke are significantly better since the All Star break, and coupled with much better SP going deeper into games (4.67 ERA in 2nd half vs. 5.23 ERA in 1st half). In the big picture germane to the thread topic, and sharpening the parameters for trend-detection, only the White Sox have a better RP ERA for the month of August than the Twins amongst their 8 "competitors" for the #3 spot in the draft (2.41ERA vs 3.35). This has been key to the Whities recent resurgence and suggests that they could very well pass the Twins in the standings going up and in the draft slot going down. The "bad news" is that there are plenty of teams just "behind" the Twins in the draft slot standings whose bullpens are falling apart in August- Angels (5.35 ERA), Blue Jays (4.71), Giants (4.68) and Mariners (4.67). -
The bolded abolutist statements are simply not true and I have to take issue with them. Signing and trading recently-signed FAs for prospects could most certainly have expedited the process (in a rebuild you have to trade the tradeable guys who don't fit into your long-term plan- particularly when they have "career years" like Willingham and Doumit). And why would Ryan suddenly abandon his "passive rebuild" MO and sign higher grade, "supplemental" FAs the next 2 years? It's simply not in his nature. He starts out the process of attempting to sign legitimate FA SP with a severe inferiority complex and only ends up with heartburn and heartaches by scooping up the retreads. The same essentially goes for position players, he likely won't take a legit shot at realistic bidding for an Abreu or the second-tier Int FAs, even a Willngham-type signing seems forever in his rearview mirror, given how that's working out. Before we all pat ourselves and Terry Ryan on the back and start scheduling the 2015 "parade", as suggested on another thread, it would be more realistic to realize that not all of these prospects are going to work out, in fact a significant minority will either flame out or suffer career-altering injury. The Starting Pitching, although certainly likely to be better, will need more than the "supplementation" efforts that Ryan's track record suggests he can provide.
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Are you including this author as one of your "national experts"? If true, it explains a lot about where you're coming from with your continued meme on this subject and refusal to acknowledge the local writers might have much more expertise on both the subject matter and the sources they deal with daily. And exactly what are you implying with your "parade" allusion? Are you really expecting a "Tournament of Roses" leading directly to the Winners Circle in October? That seems a tad optimistic for a lineup and Stating Rotation composed primarily of rookies and 2nd year players.....yes, just a tad optimistic,......just like the article itself.
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Sano wasn't eligible for the AFL. Given the Twins' aggressive, all-in, AFL roster, though, I'm optimistic that they will give Sano a September call-up and then call him up from Rochester in June right after passing the Arb 2 threshold, ala Wil Myers.