jokin

Boyd hasn't shown much to this point to think he's anywhere near turning any corners.

Wrong on a technicality. This indisputably was Boyd's third case of discipline for misconduct, twice with the League, once with his team, as was reported accurately. That's not one, but THREE wake-up calls to get your act together. Coupled with his lackluster performance and obstinance about not being promoted to Ft Myers, not a good track record for a Supplemental 1st rounder since he was signed three years ago. There also is the issue brought up by the reporter in the Pioneer Press, who seemed pretty confident in alleging Boyd's difficulty with weight issues might be a factor in all of this, so I don't know if that door has been closed yet, or not. It's pretty easy to see him gone by this day one year from now.

I would say there is a 0% chance that Burdi, Jones or Cederoth break camp with the Twins- but I think Burdi could be a September call-up. It's just that there are sooo many bodies to sort through at both the major league and AAA level. Perk's shoulder issue could really jiggle the deck, but I think the Twins would welcome the opportunity for Graham to go on the 60-Day DL. I'm not overly worried about Meyer's shoulder issues yet, but it does make it problematic for putting him on an unpredictable schedule in the bullpen, which was why I left him off of my list.

Yup, you're right on the age thing, I was thinking he was a college guy, he was a 1st round supplemental pick. But you're definitely wrong on the suspensions, this is his 2nd drug bust, plus the team thing last year: The Pi-Press hinted that Boyd has had a continuing weight problem, thus my assumption that his drug of choice was steroid/stimulant-related.

From Post #3 above, down about 40%:

Love your optimisim Doc. I can actually do you one better on that front for a few names, I'm slightly more optimistic on some of the names you mentioned. In the pen, Ryan has a history for finding guys with low expectations and coaxing a quality year or two or three out of them. And Guardado might be just the guy to up the ante and coax something out of more than just one or two guys from whom we currently expect little to nothing. The following guys aren't being much talked about, but I think represent top candidates for bullpen surprises: 1) Mike Pelfrey It's up to management to sell this idea to Mike and his agent--> Wade Davis and Pelfrey have almost the exact same career FB velocity. In moving to the pen F/T in 2014, Davis saw a 3 MPH uptick and became a killer reliever. Perhaps there's a chance that a fully healthy Pelfrey can resurrect his career pursuing this same role. 2) Tim Stauffer A very effective low-leverage guy. The reality is he's just finished a 3-year matriculation at becoming an effective RP, and has shown incremental improvement each year. He struck out more than one/inning in 2014 (career high K/9 of 9.4) and his 2-year SIERA is a shade below 3.00. Only a BABIP some 63 points over his career average (.356 vs ..293) kept his 2014 FIP/xFIP from being a career-best in the low-to-mid-2.00s. The guy's working on a one year, make-good deal, with Twins-friendly Ron Shapiro as his agent. If the coaching staff can gain his confidence and help him tweak and refine his change-up just a little, Ryan might have found another diamond in the rough. 3) Lester Oliveros I haven't seen him on very many projected roster lists. He's apparently fully healthy again, having dominated AA and AAA in 2014- and at the point in his career where he just has to get over the last hurdle to becoming an effective major league reliever. Lots of whiffs and weakly hit balls in 2014. 4) Stephen Pryor No one is talking about Pryor making the team. And yet, he did have an ERA of 0.89, a WHIP of 1.08, a K% of 27.2% and a BA of .092. Again, if the coaches can get any kind of handle on his streaks of wildness, watch out, you've really got something here... and he's only 25 years old. 5) JR Graham A Top 100 prospect by multiple scouting services in 2013, the scouts still believe in him, immediately installing Graham in the Twins Top 20 from the day he was selected in the Rule 5. His subpar numbers in 2014 are largely due to a ridiculously low strand rate of 59.2% and a BABIP of +30 over his career rate, plus his suspect shoulder. Again, a clean bill of health, a change of scenery and a year-long major league opportunity could really bring the best out of Graham's talented arm in the 2013 Ryan Pressly role, except he's much more talented than Pressly. 6) Ryan O'Rourke The Twins really haven't had an an effective LOOGY for some time. In 21 IPs against just left-handed batters in AA and AAA, O'Rourke's K/9 was 18.00. That's an incredible 56% K-rate. Also, he had a BA of .113 and a WHIP of 0.57. That set of numbers actually yielded an underwater FIP, that's Negative (-0.23) and a SIERA of -0.54. Any kind of strong showing in ST and early-on in Rochester that are reminiscent to these numbers and O'Rourke is going to punch his ticket to Minnesota. 7) Blaine Boyer Everything about him suggests the second coming of Jeff Gray, including the heavy reliance on the slider as his career was beginning to implode... with one exception, Boyer doesn't walk many batters. I still think it's about 95% odds that Boyer opts out on March 31, but you have to give Terry Ryan the 5% benefit of the doubt for his history for finding sore-armed guys from the bargain bin and revitalizing careers by an extra year or two or three.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this is second PED suspension, plus he was suspended by the team last July for team-related violations. He's now 24 and still in Class A. I would think he's on very thin ice, and may very well be yet another 1st round draft pick bust for the Twins.

Things I learned while looking up something else: It's good to see that 12 ST games will be televised, but now, apparently the Twins owner has determined that the KTWN call sign for his very own radio station was hurting his bottom line?

More not so good news from Rhett Nollinger: That's around a 40% drop from (presumably) the most hardcore Twins fans who are the most hungry for the 2015 season to get here.

FWIW, I thought that replacing the manager with a hometown HOFer, and signing two big FA names, one of whom was another hometown hero, would have been huge steps to staunch at least some of the bleeding at the ticket gate and TV screen. But it appears that much more PR repair-work and on-field performance is going to be needed if the Twins ever expect Target Field to once-again resemble the halcyon days of 2010.

Amid the weekend's Twinsfest and frivolities, a grim truth about collapsing fan support was revealed: Do the owner and management deserve kudos for finally changing up the on-field coaching staff and releasing the purse strings, or did they hit the panic button one or two years too late? Discuss.

These Latin players are attending Twins Fest (plus Pinto and Oliveros still in Venezuela), and those 10 collectively, could all be making up a huge chunk of the regular roster (40%) by opening day, 2016: Arcia Berrios Escobar Polanco Rosario Sano Santana Vargas Josmil Pinto Lester Oliveros It's no wonder the Twins organization is playing catch-up, it's been reported that the Twins scouting department spent extra time and money focusing on the Caribbean scene this offseason. Just the travel arrangements, Latin American press relations and family inquiries alone must be translational nightmares for an English-only front office.

Welcome

http://www.el-carabobeno.com/public/images/articles/id97397.jpg "Pinto has been the best bat of Round Robin". (Photo Archive) Now we know what Pinto had in mind for sticking around in Venezuela. Both he and former Twin farmhand, Yangervis Solarte, were drafted to play for the rival Magallanes team in the Venezuelan League final series, which begins on Saturday. The winner of this best-of-seven playoff round will go to the Carribean World Series in February. Pinto's opposing team for the final is Caribes, Oswaldo Arcia's team (but apparently only with one Arcia on the roster, Oswaldo's brother, Orlando). Evidently, the Twins are A-OK with all of this extra time that Pinto is putting in. Enjoy the Google translation, apparently, Pinto is the "best-beats", gives "quality shifts" and has the "backs" to prove he can cover behind the plate (and easy to dance to?):

I hope to heck they're wrong, as well. But ZiPS and Steamer both forecast only a mini-comeback. The authors from Dyansty Guru cite the steadily increasing whiff rate since 2010 as their prime indicator, plus a career low BA, despite Mauer's normally high BABIP and LD%.

Yes, you both are correct, the authors tried to have it both ways. But there's no doubt, as many on TD have noted over the last year, they have recognized how hard it will be for the Twins to receive full value on Mauer's contract at the position- in both the fantasy and real world.

Good point about the power vacuum at the position. But, as Tobi pointed out, rankings, and guessing who can be a productive run-producer in the middle of a lineup, means a lot to the teams desperately trying to find Killebrew or Murray-like production. There are a lot of clubs paying boatloads of money to guys ranked below Vargas- they sure wish and hope it would mean more for the money they're shelling out. It sure makes the money that the White Sox gambled with Abreu look like an absolute steal.

Yes, but then again, in the last 30 years there are only 30 First Baseman with 50 steals- for their entire careers. Fantasy League rankings work well with First Baseman, as the authors allude to in their opening- their task is pretty straightforward- catch a baseball thrown right at them, avoid a Nick Punto slide into First, and Most Importantly-, mash the hell out of the baseball with their bats. (Just a personal note, I plead guilty to having played 1B)

It was based on a 5x5 League ranking criteria.

Nope. The authors patted themselves on the back in the article for correctly forecasting that Mauer would move to First Base in 2014.

Preseason offensive ranking of Top 50 First Baseman Fantasy Leaguers publication, The Dynasty Guru, isn't buying the usual ZiPS projection for a typical extreme drop-off in rookie sophomore years; it turns out that they're really bullish on Kennys Vargas when he's plugged into fantasy teams as a 1B-man in 2015. He's ranked ahead of Tex, Napoli, Butler, Howard, Kendrys Morales, Loney, Swisher in terms of potential offensive output. And rated at #21, he's only 3-4 spots behind Mauer and Morneau. (Former/current Twins in bold). Commentary enclosed for Vargas below- the writers feel a 30 HR year is not out of the question if he gets the PAs. It's interesting to note that Vargas debuts at #21, while Jose Abreu debuted last year at #15 (now #3), so this publication has a history of committing their endorsement publicly to unproven talent. Sadly, they aren't as high on a Joe Mauer bounceback season. He drops to #18 after a #4 preseason rank in 2014. Anthony Rizzo and Lucas Duda are two names with big jumps up the traditional power position pecking order. 1) Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks (Age: 27, Previous Rank: 1) 2) Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 1 – 3B) 3) Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 15) 4) Anthony Rizzo (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 12) 5) Edwin Encarnacion (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 5) 6) Freddie Freeman (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 7) 7) Joey Votto (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 3) 8) Adrian Gonzalez (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 10) 9) Albert Pujols (Age: 35, Previous Rank: 8) 10) Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 4) 11) Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers (Age: 36, Previous Rank: 23) 12) David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox (Age: 39, Previous Rank: 11) 13) Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 6) 14) Lucas Duda, New York Mets (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 40) 15) Matt Adams, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 18) 16) Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 16) 17) Justin Morneau, Colorado Rockies (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 27) 18) Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 4, C) 19) Adam LaRoche, Chicago White Sox (Age: 35, Previous Rank: 33) 20) Chris Carter, Houston Astros (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 25) 21) Kennys Vargas, Minnesota Twins (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR) Vargas got the call to Minnesota in August and held his own despite skipping AAA, putting up a .274/.316/.456 line that included nine bombs in 53 games. The 27 percent strikeout rate will be problematic if it holds, but he showed consistent improvement in that area while advancing through the minors. Vargas has the raw power to threaten the 30 homer plateau with a full season of at-bats and some refinement of his approach. If you’re in need of power upside, drop the extra dollar on the big fella. 22) Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox (Age: 33, Previous Rank:17) 23) Adam Lind, Milwaukee Brewers (Age; 31, Previous Rank: 30) 24) Billy Butler, Oakland Athletics (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 14) 25) Jon Singleton, Houston Astros (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 20) 26) Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees (Age: 34, Previous Rank: 22) 27) Dan Vogelbach, Chicago Cubs (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 26) 28) James Loney, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 36) 29) Greg Bird, New York Yankees ( Age: 22, Previous Rank: 44) 30) C.J. Cron, Los Angeles Angels (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 39) 31) Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR) 32) Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres (Age 27, Previous Rank:28) 33) Kendrys Morales, Kansas City Royals (Age 31, Previous Rank: 21) 34) Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 35. Previous Rank: 32) 35) Ike Davis, Oakland Athletics (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 24) 36) Logan Morrison, Seattle Mariners (Age 27, Previous Rank: 34) 37) Dom Smith, New York Mets (Age: 19, Previous Rank: 38) 38) Nick Swisher, Cleveland Indians (Age: 34, Previous Rank: 29) 39) A.J. Reed, Houston Astros (Age: 21, Previous Rank: NR) 40) Christian Walker, Baltimore Orioles (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR) 41) Garrett Jones, New York Yankees (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 45) 42) Mitch Moreland, Texas Rangers (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 35) 43) Bobby Bradley, Cleveland Indians (Age: 18, Previous Rank: NR) 44) Casey Gillaspie, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 22, Previous Rank: NR) 45) Stephen Vogt, Oakland Athletics (Age: 30, Previous Rank: NR) 46) Justin Smoak, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 41) 47) Ronald Guzman, Texas Rangers (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 43) 48) Darin Ruf, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 42) 49) Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 29 C) 50) Corey Hart, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 31) Commentary by Greg Wellemeyer, Kazuto Yamazaki, and Nick Doran

Preseason offensive ranking of Top 50 First Baseman Fantasy Leaguers publication, The Dynasty Guru, isn't buying the usual ZiPS projection for an extreme drop-off in rookie sophomore years, it turns out that they're really bullish on Kennys Vargas when he's plugged into fantasy teams as a 1B-man in 2015. He's ranked ahead of Tex, Napoli, Butler, Howard, Kendrys Morales, Loney, Swisher. And at #21, he's only 3-4 spots behind Mauer and Morneau. (Former/current Twins in bold). Commentary enclosed for Vargas below. 1) Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks (Age: 27, Previous Rank: 1) 2) Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 1 – 3B) 3) Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 15) 4) Anthony Rizzo (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 12) 5) Edwin Encarnacion (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 5) 6) Freddie Freeman (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 7) 7) Joey Votto (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 3) 8) Adrian Gonzalez (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 10) 9) Albert Pujols (Age: 35, Previous Rank: 8) 10) Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 4) 11) Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers (Age: 36, Previous Rank: 23) 12) David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox (Age: 39, Previous Rank: 11) 13) Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 6) 14) Lucas Duda, New York Mets (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 40) 15) Matt Adams, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 18) 16) Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 16) 17) Justin Morneau, Colorado Rockies (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 27) 18) Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 4, C) 19) Adam LaRoche, Chicago White Sox (Age: 35, Previous Rank: 33) 20) Chris Carter, Houston Astros (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 25) We’ll continue our first base list with a big time breakout candidate: 21) Kennys Vargas, Minnesota Twins (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR) Vargas got the call to Minnesota in August and held his own despite skipping AAA, putting up a .274/.316/.456 line that included nine bombs in 53 games. The 27 percent strikeout rate will be problematic if it holds, but he showed consistent improvement in that area while advancing through the minors. Vargas has the raw power to threaten the 30 homer plateau with a full season of at-bats and some refinement of his approach. If you’re in need of power upside, drop the extra dollar on the big fella. 22) Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox (Age: 33, Previous Rank:17) 23) Adam Lind, Milwaukee Brewers (Age; 31, Previous Rank: 30) 24) Billy Butler, Oakland Athletics (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 14) 25) Jon Singleton, Houston Astros (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 20) 26) Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees (Age: 34, Previous Rank: 22) 27) Dan Vogelbach, Chicago Cubs (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 26) 28) James Loney, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 36) 29) Greg Bird, New York Yankees ( Age: 22, Previous Rank: 44) 30) C.J. Cron, Los Angeles Angels (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 39) 31) Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR) 32) Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres (Age 27, Previous Rank:28) 33) Kendrys Morales, Kansas City Royals (Age 31, Previous Rank: 21) 34) Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 35. Previous Rank: 32) 35) Ike Davis, Oakland Athletics (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 24) 36) Logan Morrison, Seattle Mariners (Age 27, Previous Rank: 34) 37) Dom Smith, New York Mets (Age: 19, Previous Rank: 38) 38) Nick Swisher, Cleveland Indians (Age: 34, Previous Rank: 29) 39) A.J. Reed, Houston Astros (Age: 21, Previous Rank: NR) 40) Christian Walker, Baltimore Orioles (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR) 41) Garrett Jones, New York Yankees (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 45) 42) Mitch Moreland, Texas Rangers (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 35) 43) Bobby Bradley, Cleveland Indians (Age: 18, Previous Rank: NR) 44) Casey Gillaspie, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 22, Previous Rank: NR) 45) Stephen Vogt, Oakland Athletics (Age: 30, Previous Rank: NR) 46) Justin Smoak, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 41) 47) Ronald Guzman, Texas Rangers (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 43) 48) Darin Ruf, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 42) 49) Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 29 C) 50) Corey Hart, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 31) Commentary by Greg Wellemeyer, Kazuto Yamazaki, and Nick Doran

In the immortal words of Latrell Sprewell... "I've got my family to feed!"

Hey Halsey, don't rub it in! Please let the community know when you make a Pinto-sighting, perhaps it might happen before next Monday? It's hard to imagine that ST is only a month away.

Berardino with an Arcia update: Hopefully, Arcia won't need that 4th option year, but given his injury and slump history, it's a nice cushion to gain that 4th option year. Going back to the minors has proven to be very beneficial for Arcia to get his groove back in the past two seasons.