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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    I don't see how that first statement makes sense. Teams sign these extensions because they get those seasons, likely on options, at below free agent market values. That's very tradeable. Players entering the decline phase doesn't mean they can't be valuable MLB contributors. The line of reasoning here seems to suggest there is rarely value in having an MLB player that has entered the typical, age-induced decline. Teams need to be aware of it, but not necessarily completely avoid it -- particularly if they can get their players extended on team options that give them the flexibility to either retain the player if there is still excess value or let them become a free agent if not.
  2. jay
    I agree on the first part -- you'd expect all clubs to be secretive in that space. The second part I'm not so sure on, but that's certainly possible. If I was trying to develop a system to take advantage of the new Field F/X data (or whatever it's called), I do know I'd do everything possible to make it look I had low ambition/interest.
  3. jay
    From what I gather, Jack is a manager. Having someone bridge the gap from data nerd to the front office seems appropriate and I'm not so sure I'd expect him to be the guy with the solution. In IT projects, there's usually the guy who can explain it in a way that makes sense to everyone else. He isn't the tech wiz doing the coding and that's okay. Some orgs are probably approaching the point where almost everyone is a data nerd, but right or wrong, I don't think we're one of them. In any fashion, the Twins are quite secretive about how that analytics team operates and what they do (which is okay in my book), so I think we're making some big assumptions to say what Jack does or doesn't do.
  4. jay
    On the first point, you're showcasing the point I just made in the previous post. Naturally, there will instances where a ball falls and no runs score. There will also be instances where a ball falls and the other teams goes on to score four runs. The weighted run averages use an incredibly immense amount of data to create the average of all those instances. On the second point, "misplay" is far too strong of a definition. Also, Hicks is a poor example. The contrast between someone like Alex Gordon and Josh Willingham better reflects the difference between the Royals' and Twins' OF defense in 2014.
  5. jay
    Great post. I think the biggest mental block in the perceptions of measuring defense is extrapolating from the few plays we see and know should have been made to all the plays that a better defender would have made and a run value over the course of a long, 162 game season. We can easily see and count home runs. We can easily see and count RBIs and runs. We can't easily see and count a missed play every three games or what that means as a run difference over 162 games. I think this leads people to dismiss the merits of defense metrics and the impact defense has -- whether that's in the outfield or behind the plate.
  6. jay
    First, the quote from Ryan to Sid about focusing on pitching. Now, this on MLBTR: Sure makes it sound to me like the Twins are envisioning bringing in a starter. Some realistic targets might be: Brett Anderson Brandon Beachy Jason Hammel Josh Johnson Justin Masterson Brandon McCarthy Brandon Morrow Ervin Santana Ryan Vogelsong Edinson Volquez
  7. jay
    I think the question there is how to explain the big gap between the two... If TR and the Twins' scouts say his range is no worse than average, why is that so different than the metrics that are saying his range is terrible?
  8. jay
    I can understand questioning the defensive metrics available today, but I don't think I've seen defense completely dismissed as a thing before... I don't see any way to question that better defense results in better results for your pitchers.
  9. jay
    Take that to mean what you want. I don't take it as excluding the team from making any other moves to improve from "decent", but that any remaining FA dollars will be prioritized to pitching. Trades and such aren't easy to clinch, so it might well be that we don't see any more moves on position players. However, last I checked, free agency isn't the only method of acquiring players -- despite the overweighted attention it receives.
  10. jay
    "Ryan added that any other free agents signed will be pitchers..." Bourjos?
  11. jay
    Or DH. Or they change their mind. Or Hunter DHs some and Arcia plays both RF and LF. There's scenarios where Hunter doesn't stay in RF either. Or a 39 year old gets injured early in the year. Or fails to perform. The OF defense isn't going to be great either way. Of all the things to possibly not like about signing Hunter, I don't understand making a big fuss about which corner Arcia plays in. Ideally, he probably wouldn't play in either.
  12. jay
    In the Strib today regarding the $10.5M just spent on Hunter...
  13. jay
    I think you missed my point. It's December. A lot can happen between now and March. I'm not convinced it's even nearly as big of a deal as some folks are making it out to be anyway.
  14. jay
    I recall that as well, but the same things can be said about how he plays RF... Arcia moving to LF because of signing Hunter is making an awful lot of assumptions in early December about how the roster will be finished in March.
  15. jay
    A bit off topic, but... This is great in theory. It really is. We'd all love for the Twins to just go sign whatever free agents they might need that offseason at whatever cost that might be. Unfortunately, it doesn't sound like a reality that Twins fans (nor most fans) can realistically expect.
  16. jay
    The real question is... What would the Cardinals do? They gave a 28 year old Matt Carpenter a six-year extension after 2 seasons. They've also given multi-year extensions to guys with 2 to 3 years of service time in recent years to at least Yadi, Wainwright, J Garcia and Craig. These deals all contain club options at the end for what would have been free agent years. Jon Jay, Bourjos and Decalso are going year-to-year through arb without a locked in extension. They'll have similar decisions to make shortly for Wacha, Adams, Wong, Rosenthal, Lynn, etc. Do Dozier and Plouffe fit closer to the first group that has gotten extensions or the second group that hasn't?
  17. jay
    Nailed it, Nick. Could this really be the end of Duensing being the clincher in any trade offer?
  18. jay
    I assume you're citing UZR here, which has him at -0.7 and -4.4 the last two years. People who "believe in defensive metrics at all" also know UZR requires 3 years of data to start becoming reliable and those numbers above can hardly be used to say he's "below average". Over those same 2 years, DRS has him at +9 and 0. Sorry, but that statement is hardly accurate.
  19. jay
    2009 - Drafted and rookie ball 2010 - Low-A and High-A 2011 - High-A, AA and AFL 2012 - MLB and AAA 2013 - MLB and second half breakout Dozier was drafted as an 8th rounder, but forced a fast track. He broke out in his second MLB year after making the jump from AA for his rookie year. I don't understand faulting him for any of that. He's not some journeyman minor-leaguer who finally broke out. If Dozier is too old for an extension, that's practically saying don't ever extend a college draftee. I think Dozier is being consistently undervalued in this thread.
  20. jay
    To be fair, I think you've added the "a year" portion year. The key value I think you're missing here is extra years of control at less than free agency costs. That's why teams are doing these deals. Seager wasn't a top prospect either -- 7/$100M after 3 years. Gyorko was slightly more well regarded, but not a top 50 prospect either -- 5/$35 after ONE year. That's fine to not want the Twins to do it, but there's risk and downside to that as well.
  21. jay
    That wasn't the intent. The Twins obviously can't get Dozier for $5M/yr. If the Twins can save (for those touchy about that word, replace it with "spend elsewhere") $20M with an extension now, what does spending $20M too much look like? I think you've actually highlighted that dropping $20M from 7/$55 sounds so improbable, making the upside greater than the downside. No baseball player is ever "consistent" enough though. The guy has been healthy and put up back to back above average seasons by adjusting after a tough rookie year. That's a feat on its' own. But hey, again, I get the argument for not doing it. I just don't want folks to think there's no difference or harm in waiting if that's the easy answer most people are giving.
  22. jay
    I understand the argument against doing it, but the best case is more like $20M + significantly higher trade value than a few million. Seager was in the same draft class as Dozier and is a similar age. He just signed for $100M to go through '21. MLBTR projected Seager's arb years ('15-'17) at $27-30M and roughly $18M/year for the four free agent years that were bought out. Seth has projected Dozier's arb years ('16-'18) at $23-27M here. So, we're assuming Dozier is slightly less valuable than Seager, which seems about right. Let's change the years to make the two more directly comparable. Tack on another year to Seth's offer and you're at, let's say, 7/$55M to get through '21 (just like Seager). If the Twins decide to wait a year and Dozier puts up another year identical to 2014, that gets him even closer to Seager territory. I think he'd be looking for more like 6/$75 to get through '21 at that point. So, if the difference between extending this year and next year is $20M with just a repeat performance in 2015, let's also consider $20M of downside... and it's extremely hard to envision Dozier not being worth $35M over the next 7 years. There's certainly risk there, but it's attractive risk in my eyes.
  23. jay
    Of course there's risk both ways. Point is, you don't land a team-friendly extension for multiple-time All-Stars. There's little room to go up from there and you're probably MORE likely to overpay. One could probably argue the point that it might be too late already. You've never really been a Dozier fan, as I recall. He'll likely have a down year or injury at some point, as most players do, and I just hope that isn't used as ammunition to prove that point. I don't see much in his game that isn't sustainable. The BB% might fall back some, but the defense is there and his stroke fits TF well to match up with his pretty average FB/HR%.
  24. jay
    I'm with Doc on this one. The "wait" answer doesn't come without consequences. If Dozier has another good/solid year like 2014, these numbers Seth has proposed won't even be anywhere close to enough. The trend has been to lock players up earlier and earlier. Teams do that because they can get the best long-term deal BEFORE the player has fully proven himself. If Dozier is an All-Star again, there's little reason to buy out his arb years at that point. He'll get paid as a proven All-Star either way. Sign him, sign him now. And front-load it as much as possible.
  25. jay
    In a thread on Wily Mo Pena. ...I see what you did there.
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