JB_Iowa

"In a game, when you are up a run with 2 outs and bases loaded in the 7th, is a higher leverage situation than when you are up 2-3 runs with nobody on base starting the 9th inning... " Does anyone honestly want Capps to come in with runners on base?

After more the a week of staying in a rut in pick to click, I'm grateful to Doumit for getting me some big points yesterday. I was also glad to see Pavano, Marquis and Blackburn all go 6 even though Marquis and Blackburn were fairly ugly doing it. I would be even more glad to see Frankie go at least 6 tonight -- preferably with a QS thrown in.

I'm not a stats person but as I watched him run to 1st in his last AB yesterday, I commented on his knee. It wasn't a limp but it seemed like there was a hesitation in his step. I don't know the answer to all this but I think you are absolutely correct in your conclusion that he will go through periods like this (probably many of them) as long as he continues to cqatch.

I predicted a 72-88 season (apparently I can’t add to 162). To reach the 72 mark, they will need to win 65 of their next 135 games. A .481 clip – seemingly do-able but I have no faith that it will happen. As I have said repeatedly for more than a year, I believe that this franchise is stagnant and, like a pool of stagnant water, the stench is getting worse over time. There is very little change in the leadership of this organization – on the field or in the front office. Even when there are changes, they typically promote from within or recycle. No one was ever hired to challenge their belief systems or to inject new energy, talent and ideas. Even if you think you are performing perfectly, being challenged by the ideas of others helps you to refine your own performance. Interestingly, when he stepped down from the GM’s job, Terry Ryan was quoted in the Star Tribune as follows: "The game has changed since I've entered," Ryan said. "It's for bright, energetic negotiators, moreso than anything I possess.” I think he was right. I think the Twins made a mistake in promoting Bill Smith but I don’t think that recycling Terry Ryan is the answer. I strongly favor hiring a new GM from outside the organization – someone with some baseball knowledge – who can sift through what the Twins are doing with a fresh eye and to keep what works and revamp what doesn’t. I don’t think that job can be done by a Twins “insider” like Ryan. He and other longtime Twins management staff members have too much of a personal investment in what they have done in the past and in the personnel who currently occupy key positions with the club. I’m not calling for a clean sweep of all front office and coaching staff but I do think that they need to come under the scrutiny of a strong baseball personality with a fresh eye. I’m not sure who that would be but I’m sure that others will have some suggestions.

Please note that this is posted under "More Baseball" not "Twins Talk". Surely there is room for a little happy news about a former long-time Twin.

I'm anxious to see what Dozier can do .... but I hope we wait awhile before proclaiming him a savior or as a long-term starting replacement for Carroll or Casilla. It seems like Twins fans have a tendency to laud these call-ups early .... only to suffer big disappointments in the long run. I hope Dozier does well. I hope he and Carroll and Casilla make the decision-making difficult (and if Dozier can play a good third base, all the better) but I hope that people keep a sense of perspective.

I thought it was important that Marquis gutted it out through 6 even though it looked like he should be pulled earlier. Two 6 inning starts in a row from the staff veterans. It allows the bullpen to better establish their roles. Marquis' start wasn't pretty but when you are trying to turn around an entire staff, I'll take gritty over pretty. I hope that Blackburn can continue the trend today. There aren't any quick fixes for this team and I'm a big believer that they need to rebuild entirely but I'd appreciate it if they could at least deliver a little respectablity.

Cuddyer up. Bases loaded. 2 outs. I was waiting for the weak grounder to 2nd. But BOOM - a grand slam to center. Congrats, Cuddy!

He was talking about bunting early in the game ... no problem with that even if it does turn out to me a no-hitter. (although he mixed it up with the second statement). I also didn't see the game so I don't know if they attempted to bunt but in game chat, we've been questioning why they don't use the bunt more to try to get things going. It'll be interesting to see the changes over the next few weeks.

The only thing good about the last series was that it was on the West Coast ... and I didn't feel compelled to watch it. In the past I would have decided to forego sleep. Not doing so was a really easy decision this week. Always enjoy your thoughts, k-bro

I can't read the title of this article without thinking of Harmon Killebrew who asked a similar question last spring. RIP Mr. Killebrew.

Thanks for the responses. I especially appreciate your analysis, Teflon. You missed my point, Roger. Yes, the Twins have to pay Nishi BUT he is not on the major league roster. They have a lot of other minor leaguers that they are paying as well (although not as much) and THEIR salaries aren't included so I'm not sure why you would include Nishioka's. The reason that the figure surprised me when it was thrown out there in Shipley's article was that this has often been characterized as a $94 million team -- a drop of about $18 million from last year -- with plenty of angst from a variety of writers. While I understood that Hendriks' salary would have an impact as a replacement for Baker and that they are eating Zumaya's salary, that would not account for $6 million. Teflon's analysis makes the most sense on 1st read. The other article on the PP that touched on payroll was Tom Powers' -- that they need to spend better not necessarily more. While that is true, I still find it interesting that the drop from 2011 may not be as much as we first beieved.

Seth, I guess my question really comes down to comparing apples to apples and that is what I'm having a hard time getting a handle on. The cost of last year's roster vs. this year's roster Is this a matter of semantics because Nishioka signed a Major League contract? He hasn't appeared in the Majors this year and all those other minor leaguers get paid something (peanuts though it may be) so is it right to include his $3 million? I'm just really trying to get a handle on where the numbers are coming from and in honestly comparing them to 2011 because it seems like the cost issue comes up in threads from time to time.

I was a little surprised to read this blurb last night in a Pioneer Press article by John Shipley: “He [Terry Ryan] lowered the team's payroll by about $15 million, but the Twins are still spending in excess of $100 million for this team, which looked solid coming out of spring training, even as right-hander Scott Baker inched closer to what wound up being season-ending Tommy John surgery.” I’ve been operating under the assumption that the opening day payroll was at about $94 million based on Strib reports, etc. Is the payroll for this disaster really over $100 million now? Here are the numbers I found: [TABLE=width: 187] [TD=width: 186, bgcolor: transparent]Joe Mauer [/TD] [TD=width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]23 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Ryan Doumit [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]3 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Drew Butera [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.51 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Justin Morneau [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]14 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Chris Parmelee [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.48 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Alexi Casilla [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]1.3825 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Jamey Carroll [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]2.75 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Danny Valencia [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.515 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Josh Willingtham [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]7 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Denard Span [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]3 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Trevor Plouffe [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.485 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Clete Thomas [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.481 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Carl Pavano [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]8.5 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Francisco Liriano [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]5.5 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Jason Marquis [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]3 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Nick Blackburn [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]4.75 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Liam Hendriks [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.48 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Matt Capps [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]4.75 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Glen Perkins [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]1.55 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Brian Duensing [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.515 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Jared Burton [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.75 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Alex Burnett [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.49 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Jeff Gray [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.485 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Anthony Swarzak [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.4875 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Matt Maloney [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.4825 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]88.3435 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Scott Baker [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]6.5 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Joel Zumaya [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.85 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Tsuyoshi Nishioka [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]3 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Sean Burroughs [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.525 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Ben Revere [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]0.4925 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]11.3675 [/TD] [/TABLE] Even if I add up all of them, I come to not quite $100 million. Plus, I assume there may be some insurance on Scott Baker. I'm also not sure if it is fair to include the Nishioka pay because presumably your minor leaguers always have some cost. Anybody know where Shipley is getting "over 100 million" from? Am I missing somebody os some transaction?

I don't think it was sour grapes but I appreciate the thread because I learned something about Weaver's throwing motion thanks to Denard's comment and Parker's analysis.

I don't think this says anything about him leaving permanently (not that I'd be opposed to that). And, while they have metaphorically hit the rocks, it isn't like they are in any physical danger (except perhaps from rabid fans). As I recall, he has taken days off for family matters in the past. In addition to his brother's (? as I recall) death which was obviously unscheduled, I specifically remember him taking time off for his daughter's HS graduation. That may have only been for 1 day but I think it was during a homestand. So I really don't view this as unusual. And, moreover, this may be coming at a really good time. Perhaps a few days away will give him some new energy when he goes back to this disaster of a team. I just don't see this break as a big deal. (That doesn't mean that a change of managers isn't warranted ... but not for taking these few days off.)

That's the way I interpreted it as well -- that Smith wanted to keep payroll near or above 2011 amounts and the Pohlads weren't willing to do so. I really thought it was Smith who didn't think rebuilding was necessary and that they would "be okay" with just a few additions & changes. I call that the "recapture 2010 glory philosophy". I really don't see Ryan rebuilding either but he's doing it on the "spend 15% - 20% less" philosophy.

Leadership is something that is very difficult to judge from the outside but the defining moment for me in Joe Mauer's leadership (or lack thereof) was when he rehabbed in Florida last year. Gardenhire wanted him to get some rehab days in Rochester. And, to me, it would have been a nice way for Joe Mauer to acknowledge the importance of Rochester to the organization and to reward Rochester's fans for putting up with the misery of last season. But Mauer seemingly wouldn't do that. We'll never know, I guess, about the exact discussions between Bill Smith and Joe Mauer about a rehab stint in Rochester. On the other hand, does anyone think that if Ron Gardenhire and Joe Mauer both thought Mauer should spend a few days in Rochester, Smith would have prevented it? Of course not. It is just proof to me that Mauer doesn't understand his leadership role within this organization. They aren't paying him just for his production on the field.

CDog, thanks for the refresher. Didn't he did miss the 1st month of 2009 and wasn't 2010 the year in which he had the awful bunt attempt? Perhaps those are the things that made me recall that he seemed to improve in July. And I still think my overall question is valid. Does Mauer now seem like he is more likely to waive his no-trade clause (rats abandoning a sinking ship comes to mind)? And would the Twins now be much more willing to deal him? And would fans be much more accepting of a trade? He has a lot more work to do to make himself really tradeable (in a meaningful way) but staying on the field is part of it.

I'm sure he can use a break but I wouldn't read anything into this. As I recall, he has missed games and series before for high school graduations, etc. Congrats to his daughter.

I was going to pose this question in a separate thread but will ask it here to follow up on tpb8's comment. Does anyone else think that Mauer's starting streak to open the season was any indication that he is open to a trade? I realize that he was also probably trying to rebuild his reputation as a whole but this seemed to me to be going a little beyond that. Almost as though he were trying to produce his best showing early in the season to try to position himself for a favorable trade. In 2009 and 2010, he didn't really heat up until after the 4th of July so it seemed a little odd to me to see him pushing it so hard at the start of the season. I do think that Mauer wants to win a championship. It's hard not to recall the "promises" for a competitive team when the new Mauer contract was inked. Seems to me that Mauer, the Twins organization and a lot of fans may be a lot more open to a trade at this point. So here's hoping that he can somehow manage a strong season and increase his trade value.

Sure indicates a broken organization to me.

deanlambrecht, I tend to agree with you on the need for wholesale changes at this point. I think they need to bring in someone at the top with baseball experience and a thick skin who only wants the job for 3 or 4 years. That person would be empowered to review all job performances within the organization and make appropriate personnel changes. (Okay, within the organization, I'd give him czar powers). Not an easy job but, at least in the world outside baseball, there are people who relish that type of challenge (especially for the right money). I don't think you can just say fire everybody and blow it all up but I do think someone from the outside needs to be looking at the big picture and blowing up a lot of different parts. The "smart bomb" approach. Often the reorganizer doesn't/can't stay with the organization but by doing the dirty work of reorganizing, he makes it easier for his (or her) successor.

I believe the organization stagnating -- and so yes, for me that makes it broken. I strongly believe that SOME turnover in management positions (both in the front office and on the field) is a good thing. But instead, all we see from the Twins is recycling. Gardenhire simply shifts coaches around a little. They bring back Terry Ryan and Wayne Krivsky in the front office. But they never seem to bring in someone with new ideas and a fresh perspective. I'm not saying that they should have had wholesale changes -- just that they needed to keep things fresh to keep them out of ruts and from a sense of complacency. Stability is a good thing. Stagnancy is not -- it becomes a stinking pool. The only big changes in the last few years were in the field staff in Rochester -- and that seems to be only because Rochester ownership demanded it. I KNOW these people all like working together but you need new perspectives and energy to keep an organization moving forward. That hasn't happened with the Twins. The organization IS broken -- and it goes a lot deeper than won/loss records.

To add to what I said in the "blog" commentary section (I wish there was a way to integrate that and article comments), I think that the Mauer boos last year were directed at Mauer but my gut feeling is that this year while still somewhat directed at Mauer, they are also directed at the organization as a whole. How often does Jim Pohlad come out on the field? Or Terry Ryan? Or even Gardenhire in a boo-able situation? Mauer is the most visible symbol of the franchise as a whole. The highest paid player. The "deity" who was idolized by fans. I don't find it surprising that his miscues are booed -- and I suspect many of those boos are directed what is happening with this team as much as they are directed at him.