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mlhouse

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  1. mlhouse
    Just to see, I looked at last 5 drafts. For picks in rounds 31-40 we signed 3,3,3,5,6 of those ten players in the those drafts, 2012-16. Picks 21-30 5,6,8,5,7 Picks 11-20 7,10,9,8,8
  2. mlhouse
    Wow, our California area scouts must be totally worn out: Round 9 UC-Riverside Round 10 Cal-Irvine Round 13 Fresno St Round 14 Merced College Round 15 Fresno St Round 18 UC Santa Barbara
  3. mlhouse
    The diamond in the rough was the argument, but the difference is you just draft the diamonds first, and pay them, and the fake diamonds who get the money are drafted later and paid much less. I came up with this idea after watching Twins high draft pick B.J. Garbe play in rookie ball for Elizabethton. I saw him for 4 plate appearances and easily saw he did not have the bat speed to make the major leagues. This was something that was evident even when playing in rookie ball that was not evident playing high school ball in Washington state.
  4. mlhouse
    I one time suggested this to a guy who was high in the Twins organization. He hated the idea. But, I think that the league should set up the short season minor leagues for draft eligible players. They then go play against each other and you can scout the players against a set level of competition. Then, after the short season is over, you draft.
  5. mlhouse
    Mennonite Educational Institute....
  6. mlhouse
    I prefer Enlow to Leach by a long shot. The bonus money is assumed to be significanly higher for Enlow vs. Leach. SO, I guess I would rather risk losing Leach than Enlow. Even if I believe it was a mistake, it might work out in the end if they can sign both. I hope that is the case.
  7. mlhouse
    Questioning when we will select some catchers?
  8. mlhouse
    1. I don't think that the Twins drafting of Lewis at 1.1 was a straight forward money saving pick. Based on what I have heard in public media and their deliberation, they probably had at least McKay and Lewis ranked close, with the pitchers, and took the player in that group that was willing to take the Twins offer. 2. I think that the Twins management has turned to a new money-ball draft approach. Since the original, college pitchers have become overdrafted and overpriced. So, drafting a HS position player at or near the top of the draft gives you essentially the better bang for the buck now. 3. I believe that the Twins made a mistake passing on Blayne Enlow at #37. Draft wise it has worked out because Enlow was still available at #76, but drafting him at #37 meant it was easier to sign him above slot value and you did not have to risk losing him between picks #38 and 75. If you draft him #37, and have to pay him $3 million to sign, you only have to come up with $1.2 million over slot. But at #76 you have to come up with $2.25 million over that slot, meaning $1 million more needs to be skimped from other picks. 4. So, you work out the deal for Enlow at #37 and then draft a guy at slot value at 76. Since we overdrafted Leach, there is a good chance he is still available at 76. 5. Once the draft reached the 6th round, teams suddenly turned to college seniors to save on the lower round slotted value. In the 10th round, 24 college seniors were selected, 6 juniors, and zero HS players. 6. I think that this creates a new moneyball opportunity and shows why I would have selected ENlow at #37. Lets say you do that, and pay Enlow all of the slot savings you made from Lewis, and you still have a bit more from that and a lower slot signing of Rooker. Now, from rounds 3-10 instead of selecting players below slot value, you draft signable players in those rounds at the slot value. I think that this would have given the Twins somewhat better value, particularly in the later part of the 2nd day.
  9. mlhouse
    The problem with your statement is that it is based on hindsight. When the Twins made their selection at #35 and #37, being at the top of the 2nd we could not tell what a other teams would do. The Yankees made what appears to me to be a pick that is projected to sign under slot. THey could have used this savings to go after Enlow in round 2, squeezing money from later picks and then saying to hell with the cap to make the money work. They did draft a HS pitcher in round 2 that looks to be a potential above slot signee. So, again, while what you said is true, it is only true because we know the results, not just the information taht was available at the time of selection. If Enlow signs with the Twins and we don't lose any of the subsequent picks for signability reasons (which is unlikely since much of the later Day 2 selections were all based on picking signable players), it all worked out. However, it still was a mistake to pass on Enlow at #37 and wait for him to slide to #76. The risk in him not being available was simply not worth it.
  10. mlhouse
    Again, it isn't totally true. Other teams other harder to sign HS players after Enlow.
  11. mlhouse
    I'm not sure that is all completely true because the team that picked right after the Twins, the Reds, selected Jacob Heatherly at pick 3.2 and Nick Allen went later in the 3rd. So some teams were willing to chase similarly rated HS prospects with solid college commitments in that round. Then you can see how teams then spent the latter part of today squeezing their draft pools just like the Twins did today. THey did this by drafting college seniors that have limited signing options. Look at the seniors drafted by round: Round 1 0 CBA 1 (Rooker) 2 1 CBB 0 3 2 4 3 5 2 6 5 7 6 8 11 9 18 10 24 If you look at these later rounds, in round 5 there were 12 high school players selected. From that point in the draft on, there were 8 total HS players selected in rounds 6-10. Four in round 6, one in round 7, two in round 8, one in round nine, and ZERO in round 10. So, other teams are conserving their slot money too because they aint foolish. Which, in my opinion, if you manage your slot caps on the top of the draft will create opportunities for you to find players in those rounds and sign them to good value contracts.
  12. mlhouse
    On that, I don't disagree but I think you overstate the value of the "entire night". If he has the arm you think he does I don't pass on him at #37. They already know what it takes to sign some of these players, and drafting him there makes it easier to get the deal done and you don't risk losing him in the draft. Again, it is easier to maximize your draft value if you select Enlow at #37 and only have to go above slot $1.2 million (around what the savings was for Lewis) than to draft him at #76 and have to come up with $2.25 million in slot savings.
  13. mlhouse
    Again, you are just making assumptions to fit your narrative, including that the contract numbers are agreed to. I am not saying they are not and the contract leverage players have is more limited, not every draft pick signs in the top rounds. And, the other issue were you are wrong is it does matter where you draft them because you are correct, you get a total draft pool. But, as I have pointed out, if you need $3 million to sign Enlow, if you draft him at #37 it only requires you to save $1.2 million in other picks. If you draft him at #76, it requires you to save $2.5 million on other picks. If you don't think that makes a real difference in your draft, then you simply do not understand what is going on.
  14. mlhouse
    Dude, your assumption is that you can sign Leach for $1 million versus the slot value for the first pick of the 2nd round, #37 overall, of $1.8 million. If Leach signs for closer to the slot value for pick #37 then the TOTAL amount of signing is going to be much higher. Lets say he signs for $1.4 million, midway between your $1 million and the slot value for #37. That means it takes $4.4 million to sign the two players and you need to get those dollars by squeezing your picks drafted in rounds 4 - 10, and beyond. And, as I have stated, you can't have it both ways and say that they significantly reached for Leach to save money at the top of round 2 and he will sign for slightly higher than 3rd round money. So, then, why not just take Enlow at #37. Sign him for $3 million using the $1.8 million slot and $1.2 million savings from drafting Lewis. You take the risk of losing Leach, but why risk losing Enlow, the guy you will sign for way more money? THe optimistic thing is maybe they can get Enlow for less than $3 million. After the 2nd round very few players signed for anywhere close to that in 2016, but most of the HS guys taken that signed above slot were drafted before round 3. Looks like some of the picks after round 4 are money saving picks, but we will see.
  15. mlhouse
    Dude, I'm not the one talking in circles. You are. I have said the same thing and just trying to dumb it down so you can understand. Here is another way of looking at it: You draft Enlow at #37. It takes $3 million to sign him. THe slot is $1.8 so he requires $1.2 million from slot savings elsewhere. You draft him at #76. The slot is $755,000. If it takes $3 million to sign him you now need to ahve $2,245,000 in slot savings in other draft positions. Plus, you took the risk of losing Enlow between picks #38 and #76. I then just hope Leach falls to #76 and now I am more hopeful of signing him around that number, and even if it take a bit more I still have some savings. If Leach is picked between #38 and 76, oh well there are still a lot of good prospects available.
  16. mlhouse
    Then when Enlow wants $3 million to sign, the Twins would say BS, right? If I am playing the scenario to maximize my draft pool, I think it was a mistake to pick Leach at #37, take the risk I can draft Enlow at #76, and then put then really be forced to stretch the slot savings to get them to sign. The only way your scenario works is if you can sign Leach for so much under his assigned slot at #37 but that means that the Twins probably reached for Leach to begin with. Again, you can't have it both ways and if Leach signs for closer to $1.8 million than $1 million there is a problem with making all the numbers add up.
  17. mlhouse
    Because you can't have it both ways. In other words, you can't argue that it was a good pick to reach, at least based on draft analyst rankings on Leach, and then argue that he will take a way below slot value for being picked #37. I will put it this way. Lets say Enlow is the guy you really want to spend $3 million on and you have lets say $1.3 million slot savings from your pick at 1.1. Why pass on him at #37? If you wait until pick #76 there is a chance that he would be picked in the interim 40 selections. Then you can take the $1.8 million draft slot for pick #37, add $1.2 million of the slot savings for picking Lewis, and sign him. There, you manuevered you draft picks and slot values to get Lewis and a HS pitcher that should be a first rounder except for signing issues. Then, you take the risk on Leach who you can sign for $1 million, using the slot value of #76, $100,000 left over from the Lewis signing, and a little bit of money picking a guy likeCharlie Barnes in the 4th. By picking Enlow at #37 you remove the risk you don't get to pick him and create a draft were you do not have to cut into your lower level signing bonuses by much. Now, lets look at teh problems with your idea. I addressed the first big issue and someone picks Enlow between #38 and #76. That was a huge risk. I would rather risk Leach than Enlow. Next, now that you have Leach drafted at the top of the 2nd round, #37 overall, you have inflated what his demands are going to be. Maybe he takes a discount, but it aint gonna be an $800,000 discount. If you sign him for $1.5 million instead of $1.8 million you are ahead of the game. But now, you are short signing Enlow by $700,000 and that is going to have to come out of picks in rounds 4-10. My approach risks losing Leach but GUARNTEES picking Enlow. WHile the Twins pulled it off draft wise they now need to sign him.
  18. mlhouse
    I would have bet money we would select De La Torre.
  19. mlhouse
    I don't think he projects as utility guy. He is a 3B with a 3B bat.
  20. mlhouse
    Seriously. Of course it matters who gets what because if you cannot offer some guys enough money they will not sign. Enlow has a pretty solid commit to LSU and that is one reason he was available at 3.1. This means you need at least $2 million to sign him away from that commitment. While I am sure the Twins had Leach higher on their draft list, I think the better strategy would have been to draft Enlow at #37, use the higher slot value there to get more money to sign him and then risk that Leach is available at 3.1 were you can sign him for closer to slot.
  21. mlhouse
    Well, we will put that to the test. Since Blayne Enlow is our 3rd round pick. I get your point, I even alluded to it in my own post. But, now the issue is we have underslotted 1.1 and now will probably have to under-slot the rest of the rounds risking not signing players in rounds 4-10. I think the better strategy would have been to take Enlow at #37 instead of Leach for two reasons. First, you get to start with a $1.8 million draft slot instead of $755,000 and adding the savings you got by under-slotting Lewis you can get the $3 million to buy him out of his LSU committment. Second, I would rather risk losing Leach than Enlow at #37. I think there is a good chance that Leach, a guy rated between 85-100 in most analyst draft lists, is available at 3.1 and then you can sign him for that draft slot and maybe commit some extra money from rounds 4-10 to make sure that gets done. I think that logic is pretty solid, right?
  22. mlhouse
    If you offered a kid $3 million to sign, and they want to have a baseball career, that is impossible money to turn down. If you go to LSU and have a standout career maybe you move up to the top part of the first. But that is 3 years and only $3-4 million. But it isn't guaranteed, not one dollar. Injuries, bad season, just one bad game and you could slip to a lower draft slot. It also pushes your career back a bit. By the time a kid would be drafted as a junior they could take teh $3 million and have 3.5 years of minor league experience. Even in the methodical Twins system they would be looking at AA, whcih can be a spring board to the majors. The problem is that the Twins have moved into draft slot territory were they cannot offer a $3 million bonus anymore without killing the rest of their draft.
  23. mlhouse
    Analyzing. From all reports, #1 seems to not be correct. The Twins and Lewis had an agreement to sign for underslot before he was selected. #2 could be correct. However, as someone else noted above the draft seemed to play out mostly what was predicted. #3 I think is doubtful. My guess is that Carlson was just overrated. #4 While the Twins are cheap, cheap, cheap, the possible savings from squeezing your draft allocation isn't very significant. #5 The problem with #5 is that as you go lower in the draft pool, adding your savings to their draft slots isn't enough. Someone mentioned Blayne Enlow and him being a doubtful sign. But, if you draft him at #35 and add the Lewis savings to that draft slot, $1,9 million, you can create a total bonus of $2.8-3.2 million based upon the reports of the slot savings from 1.1. But, if we draft Enlow, or a similar player, at 3.1 that draft slot is only $755,000 meaning that the max bonus you can offer is $1.6-2,0 million. I get that going underslot can be seen as trading down from 1.1 to 1.5 to trade up from 1.35 to 1.15, but when you blow by #35 and #37 without looking at a top 15-20 player you are then making up the difference in the much later rounds with a much less impressive package to offer. And that assumes that you a player drops that you want and that you can actually sign the player. For example, what if the player the want is Enlow and they make the $2 million bonus offer and he refuses and heads to LSU. Then you lose the slot at 3.1 and the whatever you saved underslot at 1.1 In the end, although at first I thought the Twins management was just being too cute, I think they preferred McKay and Lewis to Greene and Wright, and Lewis was willing ot take what the Twins wanted to offer. The money saving may or may not be used, and they will draft to their draft board.
  24. mlhouse
    I get the baseball draft is wayyyyyyyyyy more difficult to rank and "mock" than the NFL draft, particularly since some of the aspects of the draft are not that public such as "signability", and this is demonstrated in the range of the ranks of players selected even in the top 2 rounds: In round 1, MLB.com #49 went 16, #98 went Comp A pick 31, #187 went 2nd round pick 67. I get all that. But, it seemed to me that the Twins picks some guys that had a consensus ranking way lower than when we selected. The guy we selected 1.1 was ranked 5th by Baseball America, MLB, and Keith Law. Everyone rushed to the conclusion that the Twins were trying to save draft slot money and we would be "wowed" with the remaining 2 picks in Day 1. Then at #35, their Comp A selection, the Twins selected Brent Rooker who looks like a nice prospect, but a) he is a college senior with limited negotiating power to go over slot and was ranked #45 by BA, #50 by MLB, and #91 by Keith Law. Again, I think he is actually a better prospect than those rankings because I value the "wood bat" data, but again the consensus is we reached. Then at #37 we picks Landon Leach. Again, were is the "BOOM". Leach has is committed to a solid baseball school, Texas, but I don't think he was the type of prospect that anyone thinks we need to go over slot. He was ranked #85 by BA, #101 by MLB, and wan't in Law's top 100. Again, I get it. Most of these rankings are based on composite views they get from sources, and Keith Law has almost certainly never seen Landon Leach pitch. WIth his 3 pitch arsenal he could one day be the best starter from this draft. We really don't know. But if Lewis isn't signing for under slot I just dont see the selection. He is a solid draft pick but he probably isn't going to be a MLB SS and he might not have enough power to be a corner outfielder. He is a lot of projection and a lot of development, and his ETA is many years off. But, neither of the two other Day 1 picks look like overslot guys, were ranked way lower than we took them, and I just don't see the logic in what the Twins are doing.
  25. mlhouse
    While that may be true, it is also making assumptions that players THE TWINS WANT will slide because of signing issues AND simultaneously that the Twins can sign them even with the extra salary pool.
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