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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. It makes Casilla injury prone and/or disappointing. However, the gulf between a soon-to-be 28 year old and a 38 year old is pretty wide. Can Carroll honestly be expected to get better? Carroll may have played in more games, but he has never, ever been a regular at one position for even half a season. Has anyone had a career arc where they become regulars at 38 and have their best years then? Casilla could be a late bloomer--at almost 28, there is a small chance that he will improve to the point where he is pretty good. Florimon, at best, looks like a Casilla, but at shortstop. He's 2.5 year younger, but has eight big league at-bats and only this year cracked AAA.
  2. Duensing throws mid-90s when coming out of the 'pen. I haven't seen him throw it that hard when starting. To me, that is a major difference. We have seen the same phenomenon with Perkins. Duensing has a three pitch mix and IMHO profiles more as a starter. I also believe that his value is much higher if he can successfully start. Regarding getting RH hitters out, I detailed his splits this year and last. In '09, he had a .269 BA against and a .742 OPS against and in 2010, he had a .282 BA against and a .751 OPS against. In summary, versus righthanders, this year seems about average. While those numbers aren't good, I don't think they make Duensing a LOOGy either. Given the dearth of good options for the rotation this year and beyond, I don't think the Twins should dismiss Duensing based on three strarts where he was stretching out .
  3. It looks to me like Florimon's upside would be a low OBP, good speed and defense, bottom of the order guy. He isn't allergic to XBH, but he doesn't make solid contact often enough to put up good power numbers. That doesn't scream MLB regular. I still am holding out hope that his hitting improves to a point where he can be in a big league lineup and wow us fans with his defense. Back to the Alexi/Jamie/ Brian trio. We all know what we can get from Carroll--versatility, steady defense, OK OBP and no power. That absolutely says "utility infielder". It makes sense to me to decide whether Casilla is worth keeping in 2013--as noted above he hasn't played in over 100 games in a season in his career, but so far he's been healthy. Carroll could start once a week at short and once a week at second to rest the two younger players. If Dozier continues to spiral, especially on defense, start Carroll or Florimon there and if Casilla can't get it going by the end of this month, make the decision that he's not part of the future (DFA him whatever). Maybe Alexi can make himself tradeable, maybe he can get a contract for next year or maybe he gets nontendered in the winter.
  4. Determine Brian Duensing's role Brian Duensing has been with the Twins since 2009. He has been mostly healthy and pitched both in relief and as a starter in each year, starting 50 game and relieving in 59 coming into this year. Duensing started this year in the bullpen and was effective, pitching mostly in middle innings and showing good ability to get LH hitters out. With the implosion of the starting rotation, Duensing was given the opportunity to start and he has posted three starts before the All-Star break. Duensing had good success moving into the rotation in the division championship years of '09 and '10. Last year, he was in the rotation for almost all of the season, only won nine games and had his ERA balloon to 5.23. He particularly struggled against RH hitters, allowing a .947 OPS against and .330 opponents BA. Brian has improved against righties this year, lowering his OBA to .296 and OPS against to .771. The Cornhusker lefthander has proven he belongs in the big leagues. The question is what role best utilizes his ability. To me, bullpen duty (non-closer, non setup) is Duensing's floor. I think there is more value for him if he is able to be at least a #3-#4 starter. With 2012 pretty obviously a non-contending year, the Twins can afford to keep BD in the rotation the remainder of the season and see if starting pitcher is Duensing's ultimate role. Duesing thinks he can and should start. It is a lot easier to find a garden variety LH reliever than it is to find a legitimate lefthanded starter. I think the Twins should give him the ball every fifth day the rest of the season and see how he fares.
  5. The Benson, Buxton, Hickses of the world also offer something we have seen precious little of for a long time. Those guys figure to be able change or win a ballgame with their legs, their bats, and their arms. We have seen so many guys with one tool of speed or power it would be nice to see guys who can run AND hit with power--not necessarily 40 homers, but double digits and the same for stolen bases and taking extra bases. My personal pet peeve is seeing outfielders cheating in on Twins' less than power hitters--Carroll, Revere, Punto etc.--and that is compounded when a Morneau or Doumit gets on base and can't take an extra base ever.
  6. Yes, you don't need to be a stat wizard to see that Plouffe fits third better than short or second. I have been pleasantly surprised by his ability to charge and throw and he is steady enough going left and right. Third base isn't about range--it is reactions and footwork and while Plouffe isn't going to win a gold glove, I think he's been as good a defender as Valencia.
  7. Not a bad idea. Mastro hits like a middle infielder and despite his speed, I'm not impressed with his defense in the outfield. If he could handle the position defensively, give him a shot.
  8. I don't believe in the metrics, but I do believe Casilla has been very good defensively for the past year. I do value defense in the middle infield and that is why I have questions about Dozier, not from his disappointing swoon at the plate (I think he'll recover). Casilla has been enigmatic, and I'm sure I wouldn't commit long term to him, but the Twins do need to know whether they will non-tender him or maybe if they want to DFA him this summer. I think there is a good player there who can provide speed and defense from the middle infield. If the top 7-8 hitters are hitting, his offense and baserunning would be a bonus as long as the defense was better than good.
  9. Good news from New Britain. Nice to see Hicks playing so well.
  10. Mentioning a Hicks/Revere combo in the OF brings me to the dream of having a starting OF of Benson, Revere, and Hicks. It would be fun to see three center fielders patrolling the big outfield in Minnesota.
  11. Hicks has more upside than Span because he could/should have double digit home run power. It also looks like he could be a bigger force on the bases than Denard. The question is whether a big league team can have an OF with both Revere and Hicks in it. If Hicks can get 45-50 XBH, it would be doable and would make it tough to hit the gaps with great range from both Hicks and Revere.
  12. Your comparison of starting position players and the starting rotation kind of fails. The starting rotation has been bad for two years and a return to health won't do anything for 4/5s of this year's proposed rotation. Baker has an option that won't be picked up. Pavano's contract is up, as is Liriano's and Marquis is already out of the Twins' organization. Blackburn has struggled mightily and can't be counted to fill a rotation sport either. What we are seeing this year is the second five starting rotation and Ryan has to know that this group needs to be augmented from outside the organization.
  13. I'm not a believer in defensive metrics, but my eyes see an excellent defender at second base. Casilla has the ability to be a disruptive force on the bases, so the only factor is hitting enough. I think he's a marginal big league regular if he can hit .250, which is pretty close to his lifetime average.
  14. Waldrop is a reliever so he won't figure in any rebuilding of the rotation. I think Ryan will be pretty aggressive going after pitching, starting with the trading deadline and continuing through free agency. It would help their cause considerably if another arm emerged as Diamond has.
  15. Play Casilla more and/or recall Florimon The Twins have divided up the middle infield between Casilla, Carroll, and Dozier. Casilla and Carroll were the regulars until Dozier was recalled, at which time he became the regular SS, moving Carroll mostly to second and Casilla to the bench. At the break, you can throw a blanket over the three offensively--Dozier's OPS is .599, Carroll's is .597 and Casilla's is .577, all substandard. Defensively, Dozier has been poor--13 errors in 53 games--Carroll has been good, and Casilla probably a bit better than good. Carroll has played second, short and third, while Casilla has played almost solely at second and Dozier has played exclusively at short. In less playing time, Casilla is 10 for 11 in SB, while Dozier and Carroll have both stolen six bases. If all the players were the same age or had the same major league experience, this would be an ideal job sharing situation. It isn't because Carroll is a long-in-the tooth veteran, Casilla has multiple years and Dozier is a rookie. If the Twins are going to be good, they need better play from shortstop than they have received this year. I think they need to see if Dozier can be that guy. He has shown flashes, but he hasn't hit much for more than a month and he has had periods of time when his defense has been unacceptable. If the Twins think he would benefit from more minor league time, then the Twins should recall Florimon, who is reputed to be a good defender, has a bit of power and quite a bit of speed. The question is whether he can hit. Jamie Carroll has been a utility player all of his career. He is on track to play in the most games and have the most plate appearances of his career. He is currently in a deep slump and his overall line just doesn't merit everyday play. The Twins aren't going to win anything this year and investing another 250 plate appearances in a powerless 38 year old middle infielder makes no sense. That leaves Casilla. Alexi has a track record and it is mixed at best. He has been inconsistent on the field, with a history of injuries. In 2008, he emerged from oblivion to be a regular and lead an unlikely run to game 163, but he was injured late and when handed a starting job was horrendous the following year. Last year, after sinking to the end of the bench, Casilla was among the best players on the team when they went on their only good run of the season. When he suffered what ended up being a season ending injury, the team went in the tank. Casilla got a raise this year because of arbitration and will be eligible for arb again this offseason before becoming a free agent after 2013. The Twins need to know whether he can be an everyday player, a utility guy or less. I think a month's worth of games would be a fair test. He could play his way to a DFA or non-tender or he could get a raise and maybe a multiyear deal.
  16. Aaron Hicks is up to .275 with an .811 OPS--the splits are closing--.857 vs. L, .791 vs. R. He has 9 homers and 18 SB. Hicks and Revere/Span in the same OF would be interesting..
  17. Wouldn't you know it? Blackburn, Walters and Hendriks all pitched scoreless ball in their last starts. All three have struggled as major leaguers, but apparently the International League is a piece of cake.
  18. Cuddyer is still my favorite all-time player. Performance on the field trumps everything else and it was good for the Twins to let him go. Willingham has been more than a replacement--he is a true cleanup hitter.
  19. Deduno wasn't on the 40-man roster. He was added when called up this week, so no need to option him.
  20. Three and a half weeks until the deadline. A hot streak would do wonders for his trade value.
  21. Except for his DL time (wrist), Morneau has been an everyday player and since he returned from the DL, he has mostly held down first base. The problem is productivity. He is hitting .238 with a .737 OPS, fine for a middle infielder, not so much for a first baseman. He has batted behind two guys with .400 OBPs and has driven in a grand total of 35 runs. He has been Delmon-like in his selectivity and has homered once since May 26. Morneau has a big paycheck ($15 M) and will make the same amount next year. I give him all the props in the world for coming back after the concussion issues, but Morneau seems to me to be standing in the way of the rebuilding of the Twins. Pitching is the reason why they won't contend, but in order to rebuild I think the Twins need to rid themselves of Morneau's contract and even if Parmelee isn't ready to be a regular, try to find a replacement.
  22. Pretty much agree Jack. Sometimes an infield hit isn't as good as getting one to the outfield. It also hurts that the Twins have hitters that are played shallow at least in their off field (Span's single in which Dozier was thrown out).
  23. Bullpens don't get easily exposed if you have two or three guys who work 180-200 innings. Gardenhire mentioned the heat in regard to taking Diamond out--don't know if that is excuse making 101.
  24. Since May 26, Parm has hit more homers than Morneau. 2-1. Morneau continues to totally frustrate me. He hasn't hit lefties at all, and except for a couple of stretches, hasn't been a productive RBI guy.
  25. The pitchers and Dozier could all use time off. I'm glad to see Deduno get a shot. It would be wonderful if he could develop into an effective option (like Diamond). Give everybody that shows something a chance!
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