stringer bell

Oswaldo Arcia finished 2014 playing in 103 games, mostly due to a wrist injury suffered early in the season. His statistics are similar to thos of his rookie season in 2013. This year, Arcia pounded 20 homers, but struck out 127 times in just 410 plate appearances. Arcia also hit .231 with a .300 OBP. The power is undeniable, but the combination of the large number of no-chance at-bats and below average defense has made Arcia a less than productive player.Arcia has been in the Twins' system for seven years. In his minor league career, Oswaldo had an OBP of .376 and a batting average of .314. His top home run season was 17 in 124 games, but home run power seems to be his primary asset as a major leaguer. I submit that his batting percentage and OBP have been disappointments. He seems to be very fond of hitting long home runs at the expense of being a total hitter. Much has been made of a mechanical flaw but the problem is exacerbated by trying to hit the ball 500 feet. Oswaldo is going to hit home runs if he gets at-bats. He needs to be a more well-rounded hitter to get regular at-bats, not Adam Dunn minus the walks. Arcia hit below the Mendoza line against left-handed pitching, with a .574 OPS. The Twins used 2014 as a training/learning experience for him, despite his paltry numbers. If he continues to struggle against southpaws, it wouldn't surprise me that the new manager will limit his at-bats against lefties. This year Arcia played exclusively in right field. He made more good plays than last year and displayed a strong arm. That is the good news. He continued to make some bad misplays and missed cutoff men and threw to the wrong base far too often. I continue to see enough for Arcia to be an average or better defender, but he has to focus and work on his defense as hard as he works on his swing. Arcia has shown enough to have earned a lot of rope before he would be benched, platooned or demoted. He needs to make progress both at the plate and in the field to guarantee continued regular playing time in 2015 and beyond. I think he needs to have a much better two-strike plan. He is still only 23. Barring injury, Oswaldo Arcia will start 2015 as the Twins regular right fielder and will still be 23 years old. He is still a very raw player, often doing amazing and stupefying things in the same game. He has shown the ability to be an all-star hitter in the middle of a contending lineup and he can look like an 18-year-old in he Rookie League. 2015 should be a big season for Arcia. If he progresses, he'll probably be a cornerstone of a fast-improving franchise. If he stagnates, Twins fans will move on to look for someone else to be their power-hitting right fielder-- Adam Brett Walker anyone? Click here to view the article

Kyle Gibson started the 2014 season in the Twins rotation and stayed in the rotation the entire season. He won 13 games, the most by a homegrown pitcher for the Twins since Kevin Slowey won 13 in 2010. Gibson had 10 starts in 2013 and was pretty much ineffective. He had a strong spring training and his competitors for the fifth spot did not. Gibson started 31 games, missing one turn for back spasms. Gibson's performance was wildly uneven. At midseason, he had racked up several outstanding starts and quite a few "no-chance" outings where the team was out of the game before Gibson left the mound, often in the early innings. Kyle sputtered late in the season, going from August 19 to September 23 without a quality start. His overall numbers are underwhelming, a 4.47 ERA, despite a 3.80 FIP, only 107 strikeouts and 56 walks. Gibson yielded only 12 homers and consistently induced a high percentage of ground ball outs. What has surprised me about Gibson is his lack of command. He throws a lot of pitches outside the strike zone and when hitters have the count advantage, they don't chase. Gibson's 92-94 mph fastball doesn't get by many hitters when they are ahead of the count. When he is hitting his spots, he can be extremely tough. Gibson allowed slightly less hits than innings pitched. His strikeout numbers increased as the season wore on, but ended up among the lowest among qualifiers. Most have granted Gibson a rotation spot for 2015. I would expect that he will be starting for the Twins in their first series. He threw almost 180 innings without any arm issues, and finished the tail end of the season strongly. Gibson turns 27 this month, so he's not really a young player. Most TD posters have labeled Gibson as a mid-rotation guy. I have always thought that he could be better than that. He has demonstrated dominating stuff when he has good command and Gibson is enough of a student to figure it out and become more consistent. I expect improvement for Gibson, in part because the team will improve and probably have a better defense behind him next year and in the years to come. I think Gibson will be a part of the Twins rotation when they are a playoff team. I expect he'll be a #1 or #2 by then.

Oswaldo Arcia finished 2014 playing in 103 games, mostly due to a wrist injury suffered early in the season. His statistics are similar to his rookie season in 2013. Arcia pounded 20 homers, but struck out 127 times in just 410 plate appearances. Arcia also hit .231 with a .300 OBP. The power is undeniable, but the combination of the large number of no-chance at-bats and below average defense has made Arcia less than a productive player. Arcia has been in the Twins' system for seven years. In his minor league career, Oswaldo had an OBP of .376 and a batting average of .314. His top home run season was 17 in 124 games, but home run power seems to be his primary asset as a major leaguer. I submit that his batting percentage and OBP have been a disappointment. He seems to be very fond of hitting long home runs at the expense of being a total hitter. Much has been made of a mechanical flaw but the problem is exacerbated by trying to hit the ball 500 feet. Oswaldo is going to hit home runs if he gets at-bats. He needs to be a more well-rounded hitter to get regular at-bats, not Adam Dunn minus the walks. Arcia hit below the Mendoza line against left handed pitching, with a .574 OPS. The Twins used 2014 as a training/learning experience for him, despite his paltry numbers. If he continues to struggle against southpaws, it wouldn't surprise me that the new manager will limit his at-bats against lefties. This year Arcia played exclusively in right field. He made more good plays and displayed a strong arm. That is the good news. He continued to make some bad misplays and missed cutoff men and threw to the wrong base far too often. I continue to see enough for Arcia to be an average or better defender, but he has to focus and work on his defense as hard as he works on his swing. Arcia has shown enough to have earned a lot of rope before he would be benched, platooned or demoted. He needs to make progress both at the plate and in the field to guarantee continued regular playing time in 2015 and beyond. I think he needs to have a much better two-strike plan. He is still only 23. Barring injury, Oswaldo Arcia will start 2015 as the Twins regular right fielder and will still be 23 years old. He is still a very raw player, often doing amazing and stupefying things in the same game. He has shown the ability to be an All-Star hitter in the middle of a contending lineup and then turned around and looked like an 18-year-old in he Rookie League. 2015 should be a big season for Arcia. If he progresses, he'll probably be a cornerstone of a fast-improving franchise. If he stagnates, Twins fans will move on to someone else to be their power-hitting right fielder (Adam Brett Walker anyone?).

To Bark's point about doing well in an offensive downtown--Plouffe had an OPS+ of 106 in his breakout home run year when he had an OPS of .756. This year's .751 netted an OPS+ of 110 despite being lower than his 2012 OPS number.

The Twins 2014 season is over. It is hot stove league time, at least as far as my favorite team is concerned. Much virtual ink has been spilled discussing perhaps as many as a dozen key players. I thought I would blog about some of these guys and perhaps start a conversation. I will start with 2014 3rd Baseman Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe went into 2014 considered the "luckiest man alive" because top prospect and Plouffe's eventual successor Miguel Sano got injured early in Spring Training and was ruled out for the bulk of the season (actually the entire season). Plouffe came to camp looking strong and had a decent spring. He started out the regular season strongly as well. Trevor hit .307 in the month of April with a robust .892 OPS. Plouffe had his ups and downs during the season and hit the disabled list in mid-June. He played almost every day until he broke his forearm during the last home game of the season. He finished with a .258 batting average and .751 OPS setting personal bests for almost all offensive stats except home runs. Plouffe also had a positive defensive rating for the first time. One word summarized Plouffe's season--improved--every facet of his game seemed to pick up a notch. He walked slightly more, struck out slightly less, hit better with runners on base and set a team record for doubles by a third baseman. As noted earlier, Trevor made large strides in playing third base. He seemed more focused, better positioned, and seems to have mastered the barehanded pickup and throw. Plouffe has a reputation as a lefty masher and indeed he's always hit left handers better then righties, but this year he improved markedly against right handed pitching, recording an OPS of .738 against same-handed hurlers. Off the score sheet, there seems to be improved focus, a better approach when hitting and certainly more maturity in dealing with the ups and downs of a long major league season playing for a 70 win team. He seems to be one of the leaders of the team, quite a change from when he was first promoted in 2010. Plouffe's future remains cloudy despite his very good season. Sano should be back next year hitting home runs in the upper minors. He most likely will get recalled sometime during the season and would figure to displace Plouffe. I have always thought that Plouffe could move to another position and one outfield slot seems to be open. However, his strong season and relatively low salary (he'll be in his second year of arbitration eligibility) would seem to make Plouffe desirable to some teams. I think Trevor stays with the Twins this offseason. Sano remains a prospect and perhaps not a sure thing. Plouffe's RH bat is pretty valuable. If Sano does move up pretty early, it is quite possible that he will have to change positions. I think he could be a capable corner outfielder, although he probably would be pretty rough at first. My sense is that Plouffe is not done improving and that the best is yet to come for him. However, there is a distinct possibility that Trevor's best might come in another uniform.

Not many managers participate in the news conference announcing that they've been fired. There is an upside to the loyalty of the organization. The other side of that has been beaten to death at TD and I believe most of that as well. I'll miss Gardy. Like most ex-presidents, we'll realize he wasn't as clueless as he seemed to be when he was in charge. Replacements: I think the two in-house guys, Steinbach and Molitor, have spent enough time outside the organization that the are not Twins Guys through and through, as a promotion of someone like Ulger or Ray Smith would be. I am fine with going outside the organization, though. It is time. Either the manager or one or two of his staff need to be better able to reach the growing Hispanic portion of this club.

I certainly don't think Hicks proved anything in September. He did look better, yes, but he didn't drive the ball. His OPS in September was only .648. He has to get some extra base hits.

I'll echo those who had no animosity and wished Gardy well. He is a good baseball guy and did a good job. However, it was more than time for a change. I hope the new manager brings in some guys from outside and some guys who have worked for the club in the minors. Those in Gardy' real or imagined doghouse will get a new chance to shine.

Another nit to pick with the original article is four consecutive rebuilding years. I was thinking playoffs in the spring of 2011, as were most of us. Everyone got hurt, those that didn't get injured didn't perform and the season was a spectacular failure, but not a rebuilding year.

The Twins should emulate KC in a couple ways. 1) Preventing runs--the Royals have a number of Gold Glove defenders, including their catcher, first baseman and left fielder. They have developed a good and deep pitching staff. 2) Hang on to power arms. Don't give up on great arms, many can be developed into outstanding bullpen arms.

It sounded to me like Hughes and Gardenhire pretty much wrote it off. I also keep going back to his BB/K record. If he came in for a relief appearance and walked a guy is that worth $500,000 to a guy who has enough money to live comfortably the rest of his life?

I agree with almost all of your take, SD. Yes, the Twins need a top flight pitcher and yes they need a Hispanic presence. I think four 90-plus loss seasons is too many, but I can't see either of both Sano and Buxton starting 2015 in the majors. The strib put together quite a nice series of articles. This is a real good response to the articles and should be a great thread to talk about the Twins' immediate future.

No to just giving him the money. Yes, he had a fine season and set a record for K/BB ratio. He already got a bonus for more than 200 innings. It is unfortunate that rain took the opportunity for him to earn his next bonus. If the Twins would like to contribute to a Hughes charity, go for it. If they make a gentleman's agreement to tack on $500K to any contract extension, that is fine. The risk of having him throw an inning of relief is that he might walk a batter and of course there is some risk of injury. I continue to hope for a rainout on Sunday so that Hughes can get that last start and beat the Tigers in a significant game.

Pre-TJ, Pelfrey was an okay back-of-the-rotation starter. That could be the case again after he is fully healed from his most recent shoulder issue. Given the uncertainties of the projected rotation, it makes a lot of sense to keep him. If 5 guys are better, put him in the bullpen and maybe he finds a nice role there.

Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, and Tommy Milone have all had disappointing seasons for the Twins. Glen Perkins is having a rough finish to his season. The four pitchers named have all had injuries disclosed after they struggled. The cynics among us would all be of the opinion that perhaps the pitchers were using injury as an excuse for poor performance. Pelfrey started the season in the Twins rotation. He had a couple outings where he looked sharp, but would lose it and not be able to battle through tough innings. He was disabled with what seemed like a convenient and questionable groin injury. On rehab, Pelfrey had discomfort in his pitching shoulder, then had surgery and was lost for the year. Nolasco was a member of the Twins rotation from the start and ranked near the bottom of starters in hits per inning pitched, runs allowed and ERA. Nolasco mixed in a few good starts with a couple of so-so outings and a handful of no-chance disasters. Ricky was placed on the DL after a no-chance start in July with forearm and elbow tightness. Nolasco rehabbed and has been much better since his return, with three fine starts and one OK performance in seven outings. Milone was acquired from the A's for Sam Fuld after having a nice half-year with the A's, despite and early July demotion to the minors. He has had one decent start (his first for the Twins) and since hasn't been able to pitch five innings in a game. It was disclosed after his last disappointing start that Milone had a "dead arm" and needed to miss a turn. Since then, he has been slowed by a neck ailment and has missed his second turn. With only 11 games remaining, he may not get another chance to earn his first Twins victory. Glen Perkins was very good the first half of the year. He made the All-Star team for the second year in a row and has stayed on the leader board for saves while pitching for a last-place team. Perk has struggled mightily in the last quarter of the season. He has been unavailable after high pitch counts in consecutive games and then missed time with a sore neck. After his bad turn, Perkins' numbers aren't very good for a closer. According to sources, Perkins might be done for the season after allowing three runs in the ninth to the Tigers last night. Which brings me to the topic--were all of these injuries things that players deal with or were they used as excuses? The next question is, can we expect improved performance from these guys in 2015? It appears that Nolasco might be OK, given his last two starts. Pelfrey will have to prove himself in the spring and has no guarantees of a spot in the rotation. Unless Milone throws a couple of gems, he will be in a similar position to Pelfrey, but with having more recent big-league success. Finally, there is Perkins. For the last three years, Twins fans have had reason to be confident when he got the ball with a lead. Now, that will be an anxiety to be dealt with early in 2015. This assumes that all four will be pronounced "healthy" in spring training. Not a sure thing.

Dozier has certainly flattened out in the second half. His overall season is still pretty good. I don't know if he can be expected to be markedly better next year. His defense has also slipped a notch or two in the second half--about the same number of exceptional plays, but several more errors and misplays on balls that could/should be caught. He's far better than average and one of very few players on the Twins that could be expected to help win a game with any of his bat, his legs, or his glove.

I was with you until the last six words.

Really good article. It's time for new blood in the manager's office and with his staff. I believe Gardy is a decent manager and his staff is okay. After over a decade, the message gets stale.

And yet the Baltimore Orioles are going to win the East with Steve Pearce playing first base and some guy named Paredes playing third most of the time. Jose Bautista was bounced around from team to team and is now one of the top power threats in baseball. A certain number of players will become stars when there value was discounted. Buying lottery tickets is fine, but the Twins can't focus only on that, of course.

The death march to 90 losses for the Minnesota Twins continues today with another doubleheader, this time against the South Side Sox. Sixteen games remain in this frustrating season which produced one, maybe two, rotation pieces and some optimism that the Twins can score enough runs to be competitive. My thoughts have shifted to 2015.Taking a quick glance at the numbers and having watched a lot of Twins baseball this year, I have selected five areas where the Twins need improved play and where the possibility exists that there can be improvement. 1) Joe Mauer--The hometown hero has to return to being an All-Star caliber player. I don't know what it has been, but Mauer has been a shadow of his former self. His batting average is down 50 points, and his OBP almost as much. Some, myself included, expected a bit of a power surge moving to the physically less demanding position of first base and the reverse has happened. We've seen flashes, but no sustained great performance. Mauer has had a Hall-of-Fame career to this point, but this year has been pretty close to dreadful. I think he needs to both adjust and train like he never has before. He has to turn on more pitches, hit more balls over the fence and be stronger. Some have made the point that Mauer rested all off-season, waiting for the concussion symptoms to disappear. If they are gone, he needs to be both stronger and more flexible at 32. I believe it can be done. 2) Defense--The Strib yesterday pointed out that the Twins defense was ranked 29th out of 30 in some measure. I think that is close to accurate and is almost totally on the outfield defense--and catcher!. There is currently a thread running about the defensive dilemma. I will say that both better athletes and more continuity will move the needle considerably. More reps for Arcia in right field and Santana at whatever position he lands should produce dividends. An improved pitching staff could improve run suppression better than any single defensive change. The crown jewel of the Twins' farm system is a center fielder who could graduate next year and make an immediate defensive impact on the team. 3) Rotation--The Twins' staff was supposed to be improved this year. Despite a breakthrough for Phil Hughes, it hasn't happened. Supposed reliable innings-eaters have underperformed and been injured. It would be foolish to expect Nolasco, Pelfrey and Milone to all bounce back to be acceptable starters or better next year, but it isn't out of the realm that one or two them returns to better form than they displayed this year. Trevor May and Alex Meyer will get a chance at some time next year. JO Berrios isn't far away either. Better days are ahead, hopefully supervised by a different pitching coach. 4) Home record--The Twins have won more road games than seven teams who have better records than they do. Where's the "home field advantage"? Part of this is roster construction--Target Field requires speedy outfielders and right-handed power and the Twins haven't had enough of either. Part of that is attitude, I believe. For some reason, the Twins don't seem to be convinced they should win every home game and haven't since 2010. Again, maybe a change in the field staff will instill this attitude 5) Fundamentals--Know when to take a chance on the bases. Know which base to throw to, and set up and use the cutoff man. When there's a runner on third with less than two out, don't try to hit the ball 500 feet, especially with two strikes. The Twins have fallen off dramatically in all these facets and more, which encompass "fundamentals", and it has cost them on the W-L ledger. Good teams make the right plays at the right time. The talent is there, but the focus sometimes has not been. Again, perhaps a new voice will be able to get through to the players both on how to play hard and be fundamentally sound. That's my five areas. I know there are more. As I wrote this, it occurred to me how nice it would be to have someone else calling the shots from the manager's seat. I guess this is my not-to-subtle call to replace the manager as well. Click here to view the article

The death march to 90 losses continues today with another doubleheader, this time against the South Side Sox. Sixteen games remain in this frustrating season which produced one, maybe two, rotation pieces and some optimism that the Twins can score enough runs to be competitive. For the record, the Twins need to win 11 of 16 games to avoid 90 losses. Actually, if they did that it would be a bit more than cosmetic, since they are playing playoff contenders in ten of the last 16 games. My thoughts have shifted to 2015. Taking a quick glance at the numbers and having watched a lot of Twins baseball this year, I have selected five topics where the Twins need improved play and where the possibility exists that there can be improvement. 1) Joe Mauer--The hometown hero has to return to being an All-Star caliber player. I don't know what it has been, but Mauer has been a shadow of his former self. His batting average is down 50 points, and his OBP almost as much. Some (myself included) expected a bit of a power surge moving to the physically less demanding position of first base and the reverse has happened. We've seen flashes, but no sustained great performance. Mauer has had a Hall-of-Fame career to this point, but this year has been pretty close to dreadful. I think he needs to both adjust and train like he never has before. He has to turn on more pitches, hit more balls over the fence and be stronger. Some have made the point that Mauer rested all off-season, waiting for the concussion symptoms to disappear. If they are gone, he needs to be both stronger and more flexible at 32 and I believe it can be done. 2) Defense--The strib yesterday pointed out that the Twins defense was ranked 29th out of 30 in some measure. I think that is close to accurate and is almost totally on the outfield defense (and catcher!). There is currently a thread running about the defensive dilemma. I will say that both better athletes and more continuity will move the needle considerably. More reps for Arcia in right field and Santana at whatever position he lands should produce dividends. An improved pitching staff could improve run suppression better than any single defensive change. The crown jewel of the Twins' farm system is a center fielder who could graduate next year and make an immediate impact on the team defensively. 3) Rotation--The Twins' staff was supposed to be improved this year. Despite a breakthrough for Phil Hughes, it hasn't happened. Supposed reliable innings-eaters have underperformed and been injured. It would be foolish to expect Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Milone to all bounce back to be acceptable starters or better next year, but it isn't out of the realm that one or two of these guys returns to better form than they displayed this year. Trevor May and Alex Meyer will get a chance at some time next year. JO Berrios isn't far away either. Better days are ahead, hopefully supervised by a different pitching coach. 4) Home record--The Twins have won more road games than seven teams who have better records than they do. Where's the "home field advantage"? Part of this is roster construction--Target Field requires speedy outfielders and right handed power and the Twins haven't had enough of either. Part of that is attitude, I think. For some reason, the Twins don't seem to be convinced they should win every home game and haven't since 2010. Again, maybe a change in the field staff will instill this. 5) Fundamentals--Know when to take a chance on the bases. Know which base to throw to, and set up and use the cutoff man. When there's a runner on third with less than two out, don't try to hit the ball 500 feet, especially with two strikes. The Twins have fallen off dramatically in all of those facets which encompass "fundamentals" and it has cost them in the W-L ledger. Good teams make the right plays at the right time. The talent is there, but the focus sometimes has not been. Again, perhaps a new voice will be able to get through to the players how to both play hard and be fundamentally sound. That's my five areas. I know there are more. As I wrote this, it occurred to me how nice it would be to have someone else calling the shots from the manager's seat. I guess this is my not-to-subtle call to replace the manager as well.

Positional flexibility is a good thing for borderline guys. If Chris Herrmann weren't both an acceptable catcher and an adequate corner outfielder, I doubt he would have seen the major leagues and he might be out of baseball. Brian Dinkelman got free health care for life because he could play both second base and the outfield corners. The Twins this year used Pedro Florimon at second and third in Rochester because it certainly appears that he can't hit enough to be a regular, but he might be able to become a three-position utility infielder for someone. Dan Rohlfing of the Red Wings is another guy who can catch and play the outfield corner (plus first base) and it wouldn't surprise me that he gets at least a cup of coffee in the majors because of his versatility. Premium guys like Sano and Buxton won't get moved around. It is telling that the Twins sent Hicks down and used him on the outfield corners, suggesting that his future might be as a utility outfielder, rather than a center fielder.

I think putting another slow guy (Mauer, Pinto) in the outfield is going exactly the wrong way to improve the defense. The infield is satisfactory at each position, without a real weak link, but not "rangy" unless Santana is the regular shortstop, and I'm not convinced that Danny can be a plus defender at short. Adding a speedy, rangy left fielder and having a regular center fielder would improve things immeasurably. I probably like Schafer more than I should--I love the speed on the bases and he's been pretty good in the OF--but using him more than half the time in the outfield might make the outfield defense more palatable.