stringer bell

Why did the Twins improve in 2015? Defense is the biggest reason. These proposals weaken the defense everywhere but catcher. I support improving the defense at catcher, first and foremost. Moving Rosario from a position where he is good/outstanding to a position where he would be a novice makes no sense. Plouffe's best position is undoubtedly third base and so far Sano's position is also at the hot corner.

Keeping Plouffe and re-signing Hunter means no meaningful role for Arcia and a too-easy demotion of Hicks or Rosario if/when Buxton is deemed ready and one of the two slump or struggle. I suspect that Santana's utility role is already written in, perhaps in ink. If the Twins limit their number of pitchers and outfielders, there is a place for Eduardo Nuñez, for what that is worth. On the pitching front, I liked the Cotts move and while he had some bad outings, they were mostly in one-sided games IIRC. Having one veteran middle innings guy is probably a good thing. The problem was that the Twins carried three or four all season in 2015. I pretty much agree with Molitor's view on Berrios. I don't expect him to break camp with the Twins, but would be surprised if he isn't in the majors to stay well before the All-Star break.

Buxton's time on the DL is major league service time. I believe he has somewhere around 92 days of service. The arbitration number is based on a certain percentage of players between two and three years of service and changes each year. The 2.130 is an estimate, I'm guessing the number will be closer to 2.140.

With Santana being out of options, he becomes a favorite for utility duty. He played outfield a lot for the Twins in 2014 and played second base in the lower minors. I expect that he'll get some looks at third and the corner outfield spots in Spring Training.

Goodrum has the tools--speed, enough arm, power (especially for a middle infielder), but he hasn't demonstrated the ability to hit for average. It seems to me that both Michael and Goodrum have a good chance to make it to "the show", if not with the Twins, then with another team.

According to mlb.com, Santana's contract was selected in November, 2012 and he was optioned to New Britain in March of 2013. The way I read it, he has used three option seasons, so he wouldn't have any options remaining. Is it possible that he still would have one option remaining?

Re: DSantana It doesn't matter when he debuted, does it? When was he added to the 40-man? An option was used in '14 and another in '15. Was he on the 40-man in 2013?

While Hicks had one outstanding stretch of hitting, I would say that he looked the part of a major league hitter all year. It seemed that he should have been getting more hits early and late, but made up for it with that torrid midseason stretch. Considering the entire season, he was much improved, but not quite even an average hitter. No one talked much about his struggles in the second half of the season because first Hunter, and then Plouffe and Dozier had notable swoons. Hicks' problems seemed minor next to the slumps by those players.

My prediction on the first day of the off-season was that Arcia gets a last shot in right field, while Hicks starts the season in center, with Buxton and Kepler cooling their heels in Rochester. I just don't think the club wants to give up on Arcia (nor should they) and I do think that some AAA time will benefit Buxton.

Aaron Hicks looked and played like a major league player in 2015. That is a big step forward for him. I have said for a while now that I don't believe he can hit enough to be an everyday corner outfielder and I still am of that opinion. The best use for Hicks is to be traded for value.

First of all, what a great conversation about an important topic. Velocity is not a be-all and end-all or Jim Hoey would have been a good pitcher and Mike Pelfrey would have been the Twins' best starter this year. My opinion is that the Twins have overvalued walk suppression to the point that they've ruled out guys with strikeout potential. There has been an adjustment to that view, but the question is whether they've adjusted enough. Moving on with Rick Anderson is probably a key to adjusting their philosophy, but converting the guys in the starting rotation to strikeout machines is not happening. As transition occurs, it will be interesting to see how the strikeout totals evolve. There is no place to go but up.

I really liked what May did in the bullpen. Given the issues the club had there, I would vote for him to be the eighth inning guy next year. IMHO, it is unwise to try to sign Torii Hunter for another year. I would rather give Oswaldo Arcia a last shot, with Buxton and Kepler waiting in the wings. I think the timing is right to trade Plouffe. In the rotation, my opening day projection is Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, MIlone with Duffey waiting in the wings. Berrios starts in AAA. The Twins had a lousy year hitting last year. I expect improvement even if there isn't much fresh blood in the lineup.

At midseason, Dozier had been an extra-base machine for over two years. He fell off big-time after the break, but he deserved to be an All-Star this season FWIW.

I agree with this. IMHO, Dozier should have been the team MVP for the last three years. That said, it is unlikely that he'll be the team MVP again with the duo of Buxton and Sano likely to dominate the award for the next decade. There is a lot to admire about Brian Dozier, and it is more than his hair. He made adjustments to become an outstanding player and it appears he will have to continue to adjust if he wants to remain in that class.

Eye test: Hicks is decent in center field, but not exceptional. He goes side-to-side and in very well, but isn't that good going back. I know he has a strong arm, but I wouldn't classify that part of his game as exceptional either. Hitting: He looked like a big leaguer this year, still not an offensive asset. Certainly he's the most improved position player.

Respectfully disagree with your panel. Sano was awesome at the plate, but that is only one facet of the game (albeit a large one). Rosario filled up the stat sheet over 80% of the season, as compared to 50% for Sano. I give the Rookie of the Year to Eddie Rosario.

After the back-slapping is done at Twins Way, the general manager should have time to take a long, hard look at the season that just played out. The Twins won 83 games and were competitive. The season was highlighted by one fine month (May) and a pluckiness that kept them from sinking too far when times got tough. The Twins pitching improved more than their metrics indicated while offensively the team scored more runs than their numbers indicated. The Twins scored 695 runs, while the league averaged 710. In 2014, the club scored 715 runs, ranking in the top half of most offensive statistics except for home runs. What changed? Plenty. In 2014, the Twins had better than average performance from a player at all nine positions. In 2015, they managed to have players with an OPS+ above 100 at three positions, and only one player (Miguel Sano) whose numbers could be classified as well above average. The team was dead last in on-base percentage and their top hitter had a batting average of .265. The 2014 had more than 100 more walks than the 2015 team, while accumulating 65 more strikeouts. Somehow the 2015 group finished in the middle of the pack in runs scored, but overall offense took a severe downturn. Part of that can be explained by personnel--the Twins got more than 450 at-bats from Eddie Rosario, who provided first-rate defense in the outfield corners instead of playing lumbering DHs and first basemen in the outfield. Regression hit the Twins hard as well. 2014 newcomers Santana and Vargas along with Oswaldo Arcia all struggled and were banished to the minor leagues, with Arcia not even being recalled when rosters were expanded. Full-time regulars Dozier and Plouffe saw their seasons fall off after seeing career bests in 2014. 2014 All-Star Kurt Suzuki came back to earth with a BA 40 points lower and his OPS+ falling from 104 to 67. Pitching was more of a mixed bag. The Twins' rotation wasn't great, but wasn't the embarrassment that previous editions had been. Only Kyle Gibson made it through the season without missing a start, but every starter had good moments. The bullpen, which all along seemed to be a weak link, was aided by the addition of a couple of guys via trade and one guy via demotion from the starting rotation. Also assisting in the staff's improvement was better, more athletic defense, particularly in the outfield. Still, the Twins still ranked last in strikeouts and first in hits allowed while yielding the second-fewest walks, a continuation of the much-maligned "pitch-to-contact" meme from previous seasons. Looking at the roster, it is a combination of veterans and young players with a couple (Dozier and Plouffe) in between. Suzuki, Mauer, and Hunter are all in the second half of their careers, while youngsters handle the other positions. The pitching staff had many over-30 guys pitching, including almost all of the bullpen. In general, the offense needs to improve by getting on base more. Too much of the team's power is concentrated in right handed hitters, and more speed would help. On the mound, more power arms are needed. There are specific questions that need to be answered, as well. Here are five questions that need to be answered in the off-season and my takes on each one: 1) What will Trevor May's role be for the 2016 Twins? May is one of the top arms on the Twins. While he wants to start and profiles to be a good one, I think he should be in the bullpen as the eighth inning guy, and perhaps as the closer. His stuff "played up" in the bullpen and he had several outings that were dominant. 2) How can the Twins augment the catcher position? Kurt Suzuki had a 67 OPS+ and his backups were dreadful at the plate. Suzuki was among the worst at throwing out base stealers (his pitchers didn't help much) and there were too many unblocked pitches. I think there are two options--acquire a backup from outside the organization or get a starting replacement also from outside the organization. I don't know who that player is, but I think a lefty hitter who is respectable defensively. Ideally, Suzuki should either share time or be the backup. 3) What of Torii Hunter? Hunter was a valuable presence who provided 22 homers, but he hit .242 with a .701 OPS at a premium offensive position. Hunter has stated that he doesn't want to be a part-time player and the Twins have top prospect Byron Buxton and minor league Player of the Year Max Kepler perhaps ready to help next year. Oswaldo Arcia also figures in here. 4) Is it time for Trevor Plouffe to be traded? He has led the club in RBIs the last two years, provided steady and improved defense and has become a team leader. However, Miguel Sano looks the part of a superstar and shouldn't be a DH at 22 years of age. I think that it is in fact time. Plouffe is a good player, but he shouldn't stand in the way of Sano. The Twins could perhaps fill the catcher gap by trading Plouffe. 5) Rick Nolasco is still under contract for two more years. He's been a total disappointment for the first two years of his contract. Can the Twins get out from under his contract? It would be great if Terry Ryan could slough off the contract, but I doubt it. I think Nolasco enters the 2016 season as one of the guys in the Twins rotation. That, in my opinion, seals the deal that May starts in the bullpen. It also indicates that JO Berrios and Tyler Duffey will have a mountain to climb in order to make the rotation to start the season. While it seems silly not to have the best arms starting the season, every rotation goes through changes over the course of the season. I see only eight guys on the short list of starters in the Twins' organization, including May. That isn't too much depth and might not be enough.

I don't think it's fair to judge Nolasco in a meaningless game. He hasn't been healthy for most of his two seasons. Also, I'll admit that he's made it damn tough to like him. He has at times seemed arrogant, disinterested and unhappy, all while making maximum money for his resumé. He's been a decent pitcher in the past and he hasn't put many innings on his arm for two years. It isn't out of the realm for him to come back and be effective next year.

If Plouffe isn't traded or if Hunter returns, it will be tough to shoehorn Vargas onto the roster. I'm not sure on his number of options remaining, but I'm pretty sure he can be optioned, so he could go down to Rochester again replaced by someone like Hunter.

Rather than editing, I'll comment on my own blog entry. I wrote this about two weeks ago and didn't publish until the last day of the regular season when the Twins' fate had been determined. No real changes to make, but I'm more in favor of new blood for a left handed reliever, rather than re-signing one of Cotts/Duensing. Also, with the struggles of Dozier and Plouffe noted, perhaps it would be good to have a true utility guy to fill in for them throughout the season. I guess Santana could fill that bill. I understand he has played second in winter ball. I'm pretty sure both Dozier and Plouffe would have benefited from a few more days off over the course of the season.

The Twins will enter 2016 after recording their best record since 2010. They have added several young players, most of whom are here to stay. As of today, they have some gaps, but overall have a decent team returning for next year. Four players are slated to be free agents--Mike Pelfrey, Torii Hunter, Brian Duensing, and Neal Cotts. Perhaps a player or two will be non-tendered. Candidates would be Casey Fien, Eduardo Nuñez, and Blane Boyer. Here is my current projection for the Opening Day 2016 Twins. It will have no rookies making their debuts and no trade acquisitions and I will assume that only one free agent is re-signed, either Cotts or Duensing. Pitchers: (12)--Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, Kyle Gibson, Ervin Santana, Tyler Duffey, Ryan Pressly, Alex Meyer, Cotts or Duensing, Trevor May, Kevin Jepsen, and Glen Perkins. Catchers: (2)--Kurt Suzuki and Chris Herrmann. Infielders: (8)--Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana, Eduardo Nuñez, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe and Miguel Sano Outfielders: (3)--Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario Some of these predictions will look pretty silly, I'm sure. I expect Oswaldo Arcia to get a last chance to be a productive player. This along with Byron Buxton's poor offensive showing at the close of 2015 will be enough to get Buxton more AAA time. I would expect he will be patrolling center field before Memorial Day. Another candidate to make the team would be Max Kepler, who probably needs some time in AAA, but before 2016 is over will have a regular spot on the club. The backup outfielders would be the backup infielders and perhaps Escobar and I think it won't be long before an outfielder is promoted. I have Nuñez surviving another spring. He has had a good year in 2015. He's a pretty good hitter, has some speed and defensive versatility. It is very possible the Twins will choose to go another way with that roster spot. I have youngsters Vargas and Santana as bench players. I'm pretty sure Vargas has an option, so he could easily not make the team, but if Trevor Plouffe is traded, current DH Sano becomes the third baseman and Vargas could be the primary DH. Backup catcher is a problem. The usual suspects from this season appear, but perhaps Stuart Turner will hit enough to bring his strong defense to the majors. I don't expect it on Opening Day, but I think it will happen sometime in 2016. Three starting pitchers have long-term contracts. Until and unless they are shown to be ineffective beyond repair when healthy, they are in the rotation. The best starters then are Milone and Gibson. That leaves the heralded JO Berrios to spend some more time in AAA, which would also be a smart business decision. I have listed Duffey as a bullpen option, despite his good work in the last quarter of the 2015 season and Trevor May as a big bullpen arm. Taylor Rogers could convert to to relief and take a spot I've given to Duensing/Cotts. The Twins also could go with O'Rourke, more of a pure LOOGy. I think Ryan Pressly had an underrated season before getting injured and my hope is that Alex Meyer has found it as a relief pitcher--he's been effective for the last several weeks. Meyer, May, Jepsen, and Perkins could be a very effective game-closing combination. I didn't list Casey Fien or Blane Boyer, veterans who have performed quite well this season, and in Fien's case for several seasons. Unfortuanately for them, their stuff doesn't play as well in this high-velocity, high strikeout bullpen era.

How about a six run first?

See the permutation thread. If the Twins are Option B, they would go to Option A (probably Houston) and, if they won, entertain the LAA of A.

Hicks is my most improved. It shows how bad he was when this year's stats are considered so good. I still have questions whether he will ever hit enough to be a regular corner outfielder, but he has established that he can hit and field well enough to be a starting center fielder.

Sano is already a fine player, but I don't think he's the MVP or Twins Rookie of the Year. My vote for MVP is Dozier, Rookie of the Year Rosario and Pitcher of the Year would be Gibson.