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Dodecahedron

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Everything posted by Dodecahedron

  1. Dodecahedron
    Let's compare the options: Jeffers: .200 batting average, 55 OPS+, 2 WP/PB, 0 DRS Garver: .200 batting average, 112 OPS+, 0 WP/PB, 0 DRS Garver seems like the better option, but with these small sample sizes any decision is just gambling.
  2. Dodecahedron
    May as well. A runner at second with zero outs is worth 0.6 runs according to baseball-reference. I assume this means the assumption is the runner will score 60% of the time. If you are the defending team, you may as well increase your chances to get a double play, at minimum, to counter that. By putting another runner at first, the 60% already counting against you probably only goes up to 70% or something, whereas your chances of getting a double play would no doubt go up much further than 10%. And, of course, it makes a triple play possible. This rule is also not fair at a league level. Meaning, the NL will have a 2-in-9 chance to either get the pitching position at the plate or be able to walk someone to get the pitching position at the plate. In those cases, the baserunner might be less valuable.
  3. Dodecahedron
    3 double plays, including a play at the plate.
  4. Dodecahedron
    I would offer that picking two cornerstone players and deciding which one to keep is a false dichotomy. Losing either one would be felt. It's what the other 24 players do that matters when we are talking about team success. Both of these two know how to play, but we can't clone them. Neither of these two players alone can produce a playoff win. The Twins got what they need at the top (run producers and run stoppers) and at the bottom (versatility). If the team wants to win a playoff game, they have to improve in the middle. This means having a closer in the bullpen, consistency from the starters, and players like Polanco, Kepler on the positional side playing to their potentials and not making mistakes.
  5. Dodecahedron
    Humid air = more water vapor in air, less nitrogen in air Nitrogen weighs more than water vapor (by about 33%), therefore balls fly further in humid air as there is less air resistance. We think of humid air as being heavier as that's how it makes us feel physically. Our lungs have to work harder in humid air.
  6. Dodecahedron
    Astudillo provides value beyond the stat sheet. But just as it's annoying when people have visceral reactions against him based on a small sample size, it's equally annoying when we anoint him anything based on a small sample size too. I envision Astudillo's career forward will be much like his career thus far. He will be inspiring. He will be good. He will be bad too. In any case, he deserves his time on the team.
  7. Dodecahedron
    Small sample size, but yes it seems like baseball's attempt to deaden the ball was a failure. Since the MLB didn't know how baseballs got more lively, I suppose it should be no surprise that it seems like they did not know how to reverse it. It is possible teams are using up leftover stock from last year, so what we are seeing early on may not last. For the Yankees, who probably have no leftover stock as they can sell anything that isn't nailed down to their ravenous fan base, their stats are definitely showing better pitching and worse hitting.
  8. Dodecahedron
    Good start for the Twins. There isn't much use in microanalyzing their few failures so far, there will be plenty of time for that when the team has a few actual systemic failures. I was looking at the bullpen's metrics on baseball-reference before today's game. Most of the bullpen had 11+ innings of zero-run baseball, only two pitchers had allowed runs. I'll take that.
  9. Dodecahedron
    I suppose I'd be kind of embarrassed right now if I had acted emotional over seeing Arraez in the starting lineup on day one.
  10. Dodecahedron
    I remember seeing Killebrew, Carew, etc., at-bats, though I admit I don't remember much about how the Twins fared in those years in general. When I look back, their W-L records are better than I thought they were. The Twin Cities were pretty down on the Twins in the 70s, which I admit is why I suspected they were never very good, but the teams were never that bad. I remember Smalley being ejected from a game for dropping an F-Bomb to the umpire after striking out, which was so loud I'm sure it could have been heard outside the stadium. We were in the last suite on the first base line and his shout was very loud even up there.
  11. Dodecahedron
    Two things... 1. Dobnak will not usually be a part of the bullpen. The #5 starter typically gets skipped the first few rounds in the season and it seems the Twins wanted to give him some reps, maybe to save them from having to use someone else. I think all of us are in agreement that if we were playing manager yesterday, we would not have used Dobnak in that situation. The 10th inning is a miscalculation by the manager more than anything else. I like Dobnak, but I would never put him in a game to start a 10th inning. 2. The rest of the bullpen was good enough, apart from Colome. Unless Colome is injured and we don't know about it yet, he won't be this bad very often. I have not looked to check, but I have to believe this was one of the worst innings of his career. I would not read into this being an indication of him being cooked -- it's either a bad game or he is injured. Also, don't discount the person who did quite a bit of damage in this game: Christian Yelich. He has been doing this to opponents for years. The Twins gotta be ready when he is at the plate! If anyone has Yelich on their fantasy rosters, feel comfortable about borrowing against your future winnings.
  12. Dodecahedron
    The deal reminded me too much of the Willingham deal. I felt he was going to be often injured and I did not like the deal. There is still plenty of time left in the contract for me to be wrong, and hopefully I am.
  13. Dodecahedron
    Ah, Colome.
  14. Dodecahedron
    Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference tell the same story about Astudillo. This story is that he is an average defender -- to be clear, some Twins starters are not as good at defense as Astudillo -- and in two of his three years he was an above average hitter. I appreciate that you have a strong opinion on Astudillo, but we have to be clear here that this is just your opinion. Data tells another story.
  15. Dodecahedron
    I would not read too much into Arraez starting one game. Arraez is a part of the team, management thinks highly of him. Popular players who will be on the field often over the course of the year should play in the first game. Honestly not understanding the drama.
  16. Dodecahedron
    The starting pitching will be elite this year. Hitting will be anemic too often. The Twins should make the playoffs and should win some playoff games thanks to the confident pitching, but the bats will probably dry up before the ALCS.
  17. Dodecahedron
    He signed for $8M, which is in line with his 2020 performance according to Fangraphs. I would note that his 2020 performance is likely his current floor, not his ceiling nor his median. Cleveland got a bargain at $8M, and the Twins would have little risk signing him for $10M, if your narrative is true. Eddie was not on the free agent market for very long, which suggests to me that he was not holding out for nor was he seeking a higher dollar contract.
  18. Dodecahedron
    By your description, it sounds like he is just like every other last-guy-on-the-roster player. He is on the roster for his versatility and his attitude, not because he's a frontline starter. If he plays regularly, it's because the starters are having trouble, which would not bode well for the team's chances. Conversely, his butt being on the bench does not hurt him or the team -- he is not a player who is gong to develop into a hall of famer if he gets more playing time. This all adds up; sounds like the Twins made the right move. He fits the criteria for the role.
  19. Dodecahedron
    For the most part, Garlick and Rooker can only be judged by how they performed in the minors. Both have been incredible in the minors, and Garlick has arguably been the better player. We are seeing a bias because Rooker is the name we recognize. He has been around here a while. As a group, we want to see him in the majors. Garlick is the new guy, someone we haven't seen much of, someone many of us probably never looked up more than once. In all likelihood, the Twins made the smarter decision, but don't forget that 4th infielders are swapped out about as often as Blyleven passes gas. With a glassy player in CF, even moreso. Don't worry about it. Rooker will play.
  20. Dodecahedron
    Good call-out, but .294 is still a very good batting average. It's not so good for an OBP.
  21. Dodecahedron
    Right. The temperature is way too high considering we are discussing the #25 and #26 guys on the roster. Even by Twins Territory standards, this is an absurd conversation.
  22. Dodecahedron
    Anyone who did not know that Astudillo is a part of this team has been asleep for a very long time. He is better than a lot of people give him credit for. He has earned everything he has right now. If he struggles this year, he is probably done, so for those who want him to fail, just be patient. For those who want him to succeed, thank you for keeping your eyes open to the possibilities. As for Rooker/Garlick, I won't pretend to know all that much about either of them, SSS and all that. I always felt neither would be better than Rosario, but that's water under the bridge at this point. Rooker will get plenty of opportunities to play this year. The opening day roster literally means nothing when we are talking about 4th outfielders.
  23. Dodecahedron
    Knowing many are skeptical of Dobnak, I was surprised when I came here this morning and saw all positive vibes in this thread. Turns out, I just had to wait a while for the negativity to start. Some things to keep in perspective: 1. This is a team-friendly contract. Dobnak will be very tradeable if things do not work out. 2. Being a bullpen arm is not out of the question. 3. Good knuckleballers get better as they age. If he doesn't get better (heh, as if he has not been good), see above.
  24. Dodecahedron
    Shoemaker is ancient history. Having him start any games, barring someone else being injured, is a waste of time. He is a solid backstop, a solid contingency plan. That's it.
  25. Dodecahedron
    I have an uncontrollable urge to type something like, "Buxton? Injury risk? Fake news! He has never ONCE been injured!" However, I will resist that temptation. I think the question with Buxton is not "Will he be injured" but "How many times will he be injured" and "How many days will he miss due to his injuries?" He is amazing when he is on the field, and the Twins are rather mediocre when he's not out there. When 85 games of Buxton gets you in the playoffs with 100 wins, I'm wondering what 160 games of Buxton would produce. The team was 62-25 in games he played in 2019, a pace of 121 wins. But this doesn't fix the usual problem: 121 wins does not equate to a single win the playoffs.
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