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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    You're right. I left out "Hands Down".
  2. ashbury
    FTFY.
  3. ashbury
    That's the only kind Chief ever invites me to.
  4. ashbury
    Yese.
  5. ashbury
    Tastes like water.
  6. ashbury
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COiIC3A0ROM Great green intro R&B.
  7. ashbury
    I'd look at it differently. Where the stats and the eyeball agree, there's nothing much to be learned - everybody else is likely to be on the same page as you. Where the stats don't confirm what the eyeball tells you, it might time to ask why not, and see if there's something to exploit in either direction. The same is true of course if one type of stats is at odds with another. Just as when two groups of scouts disagree in their eyewitness reports on something.
  8. ashbury
    Those 1984 style questions were indeed the equivalent of asking a modern day person if he preferred a Model T or a Chrysler Airflow. The latter was obviously newer and more desirable in its day, but not relevant in today's auto environment, so a preference now for a Model T might not even be meaningful. Business Analytics are core to industry and commerce today. That doesn't mean Analytics alone run the business. Much as it's easier to teach a diesel bus mechanic how to drive a bus than to teach a bus driver how to fix a diesel engine, it is easier to teach Baseball to a business analytics person than to teach Analytics to a baseball person. In part, because you're not asking that person to run the team. And hiring only local stats majors barely out of college, as I surmise they are doing, is probably a waste of time if that's all you do in the arena. You need to hire several people with pretty elite skills in this area or you will just flail. Show me they have a mid-30s Wharton hardcore-quant MBA who knows a linear program from a linear regression and I'll feel better. Fuqua or Tuck, even. The analytical role on a baseball team is not fundamentally to come up with new stats, nor new formulas, nor running spreadsheets all day - though these may be important tasks. It is a mindset akin to Systems Analysis.
  9. ashbury
    If a trade is in the works then the additional starts would be to demonstrate there's no damaged goods, not to increase the trade value. If there's no trade imminent, then investing further starts doesn't accomplish much IMO.
  10. ashbury
    If you're saying age when drafted (or signed) has no meaning, and to just look at Dozier versus Bryant for proof, well, isn't it possible to have more than one thing have meaning, age AND talent for example? Talent is what we seek, age provides the context for assessing the talent.
  11. ashbury
    I guess I needn't have gone from memory on Goin. He's got a LinkedIn page, so anyone can see what he says about himself. https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-goin-8a0bab49 "I oversee the baseball research department, advance scouting process, and development of our internal information systems in Baseball Operations. I also assist the GM and Assistant GM with roster management, arbitration preparation, negotiating player contracts with less than three years of major league service, and interpretations of the CBA and major league rules." I'll stand by my assessment (except to clarify that Goin has been taciturn on what direction they are going analytically). And I hope it's clear I'm not throwing shade on Jack himself, but on the FO process that puts him in a position where he's unlikely to excel at one of the aspects MLB teams need to be good at in this day and age. The one caveat is that MAYBE he has hired people in his research department that I would be impressed with, and that they have kept their cards close to the vest somehow.
  12. ashbury
    Double-plus likety like like like, with sugar on top. Goin has been pretty taciturn in his public comments on what he does, and nothing anyone else in the FO has said sheds much light either. I believe it's the case that he was tasked to assemble and manage a team of analysts. Goin is a St Thomas MBA, and I expect he's a good manager of people and understands business processes and can work a mean spreadsheet, but there is nothing I have seen to suggest he himself is any kind of "guru" in the analytics field, nor that his team consists of much more than interns and statistically inclined new grads with first jobs. I remember Goin commenting one time about doing some primary scouting. It suggests to me that he would like to build up a resume covering all aspects of baseball operations, possibly toward an assistant GM role soon, or someday more. Businesses often take an approach like what I'm describing, when establishing a new department or market or whatnot - employ generalists and see whether it's worth doing more. IMO Goin should be thanked for his work in getting analytics up and running, and then someone else needs to be brought in to take it to the next level. Goin can turn his attention to negotiating contracts, in furtherance of his presumed career aspirations. Good company man, valuable to have around.
  13. ashbury
    I think Bryant reinforces the point about age comparisons, rather than negates it. Bryant was an absolute stud coming out of college, drafted high in the first round and then destroyed the pitchers at every level he played, demonstrating MLB readiness by age 23 (and the Cubs may have been conservative in how they advanced him, at least as regards his bat). Dozier was drafted in the 8th round, where nothing is a sure thing, and he needed more time to acquire and then demonstrate MLB readiness. His resume looks nothing like Bryant's. Obviously Polanco's bat doesn't stack up to Bryant's either. Hardly anybody's does. Youth alone doesn't guarantee MLB success - I was once 18 years old, and you probably were too. But conversely, you will make poor decisions about young players if you compare at face value what a 20 year old achieves at high-A to what a 23 year old does.
  14. ashbury
    I've got a goofy theory. Ryan decided to retire at the end of the season and informed Pohlad. He wanted his hand picked successor to get the job, but Pohlad said he would do a traditional candidate search outside the organization too, while considering Antony. Ryan said that Antony wouldn't get a fair shake in that scenario, given the record of the club etc. So they reached an agreement to give Antony this audition until the end of the season. I don't know what metrics Pohlad might choose to judge Antony by, but this would fit the evidence I can think of at the moment, and explain the unusual timing.
  15. ashbury
    http://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-i-m-not-the-manager-because-i-m-always-right-but-i-m-always-right-because-i-m-the-manager-gene-mauch-61-47-25.jpg There's nothing wrong with your statement, but it's no improvement over the original. When in doubt, keep the public message simple and direct. There are a lot of youngsters on the team, and clarity might make a small difference here and there, to help Molitor keep the clubhouse. For as long as he's the manager, he deserves this courtesy.
  16. ashbury
    Ninja'd!
  17. ashbury
    Well, the Antony Era starts 0-1. I was expecting at least 1-0.
  18. ashbury
    Uhhhhh...
  19. ashbury
    Santana needs to do better on the bases.
  20. ashbury
  21. ashbury
    The man battles his tail off. I like him.
  22. ashbury
    http://g01.a.alicdn.com/kf/HTB1klETIpXXXXX5aXXXq6xXFXXX8/PH-84004-Vintage-household-with-blue-screen-caller-id-font-b-telephone-b-font-fashion-antique.jpg
  23. ashbury
  24. ashbury
    You finally put that Barcalounger on craigslist?
  25. ashbury
    Wasn't able to check on the game progress until now. Saw this, figured I'd be tuning in to an 8-0 deficit.
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