by jiminy

Howard Sinker in the strib pointed today to some numbers that are more relevant than the ones I quoted above. I had said the Twins good ERA masks the fact that their OPS against was 24th in the league. But this article was about starting pitching, and that number includes some pretty poor relief work. Here's the relevant numbers for just the starters: rank in AL of Twins starting pitchers, in ERA: 4th rank in AL of Twins starting pitchers in OBP, SLG, and OPS against: 12th that's right -- they were near the bottom of the league even while they were doing well, and even if you take out the relievers. I'm shocked, frankly. I, too, thought starting pitching was the one legitimate area where the Twins had made genuine progress. I still have a hard time giving up that idea. Guess we'll wait and see. If they can't score runs, it might not matter. But I'm still hopeful that if they get some reinforcements in the batting order, and the pitching can sustain itself, they could stay competitive. This makes me wonder, however. Where they ever playing well enough to be competitive, even during their record-setting May? Or were hits just grouping in in a flukey way, on both sides of the ball? The numbers seem to say they were never producing enough to sustain any real success. The doubters seem to have a more solid case than the dreamers. At least in the short term. This doesn't fill me with despair though -- I didn't have my hopes up that high for this year, I've just been enjoying it -- and this story isn't over, by any means. I'll be watching with genuine fascination. Suppose they can hang in there long enough to stay close, and by the end of the year Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Berrios, and Meyer are all making contributions -- hell, might as well throw in Jay in the bullpen if we're fantasizing -- well, you never know. Stranger things have happened.

"xFIP is not a good measurement for ground ball pitchers like Gibson and Pelfrey.... ground balls are associated with a much lower OPS than fly balls and line drives." I think it's fair to say that xFIP is a better predictor of future success than current ERA. And it's fair to suggest that OPS is a better measure than how the Twins are pitching than their ERA. And neither of those numbers supports the glowing conclusion of this post. Yes, their ERA has been awesome. But runs are the product of WHEN the other team gets hits, not how many hits they get. You can get hit a lot without giving up many runs for a while, but eventually the runs will catch up. And by OPS, the Twins are not that good. Minnesota is currently 24th in OPS against. To be fair, though, you were talking about the starters, not the whole team. They are certainly a hell of a lot better than last year -- and much deeper. I don't mean to sound negative -- just defending the people above who say you can't read too much into a short period of good ERA if FIP and OPS don't support it. But I really don't think there will be a major collapse like the last few years. There are enough legitimate major league starters around that if one or two falter they won't go off the cliff. If they can just get a little more offensive production to match, they'll be competitive all year.

About Ryan's seemingly contradictory comments that he doesn't like it when people criticise the team without seeing them play, but then he drafts people without seeing them play: My reading of this is that he just doesn't want his brief scouting of a player to overrule his scouts, who have watched the player much, much more than he has. So by doing this he's still expressing confidence in the process of watching people play -- he's just respecting that his scouts have put in a lot more eye-witness hours than he has -- a position that is both consistent, and one I really respect.

Would I rather watch Vargas or Pinto batting in the DH spot than Nunez or Escobar? Of course. But I LOVE that Molitor and Ryan sent Vargas down to AAA! So what if he had a hot few weeks? That is how you make decisions that set back a team AND harm a player's development. Like letting Gomez and Hicks skip AAA because they had a hot spring? You have to think big picture, for all concerned. I don't know what went on with Vargas but I have a great deal of confidence they are doing the right thing, for the right reasons. While they supported him in public, there were enough comments to suggest he just wasn't listening. They told the Strib more than once that he seemed to just try to launch bombs in batting practice instead of working on the skills that he needed to improve and develop. His strike zone management had a ways to go, and he needed to set goals for himself besides hitting a home run every pitch. I don't care what he did the last two weeks. I care what he does the next several years. I care about him becoming the best player he can be. I care about him learning that unless he works every day on improving every way he can, and listening to every word the coaches say, he doesn't belong in the big leagues. I love the guy but I don't think this demotion is a gesture of disrespect; I think it's a gesture of how much more they see in him than what he is now. If and when he comes back, I want to see him doing all the little things, not just closing his eyes and swinging for the fences on pitches 6 inches out of the strike zone. I think he will be back, and I think he'll be better. Would I personally bring up Pinto for a week or two to handle the DH spot till Arcia returns, so they stop DH'ing middle infielders? Yeah, probably. But that's because I don't know as much as they do! Man, I love being able to say that. Feels so good to have people smarter than me in charge!

Baseball Prospectus projects them to have the worst record in the league, thanks to the worst pitching in the league. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ This seems a little beyond something Molitor can fix. To make the playoffs, several pitchers will have to seriously outperform expectations. I don't think it's impossible -- If Hughes stays superb, there are some pitchers on the roster with upside. But it would take a bunch of them making major, major leaps compared to last year. Nolasco could do that, if the reason for his bad season was injuries. Not sure who else is going to jump much. The only scenario would be Meyer and May suddenly improving a couple levels. But pitchers don't tend to make huge leaps in control all of a sudden. Or master a new pitch all of a sudden. But could it happen? Hughes, Nolasco, Santana, Meyer, and May, all below 4.0 ERA? Sure. But it would be a very, very, very pleasant surprise.

I don't get the worry. Name one CONTENDING team that would be excited about the prospect of having to depend on May or Meyer to hold down a spot in the rotation, with the playoffs riding on it. Sure, one or both of them may reach that level. But neither yet has shown consistent command of multiple pitches. I for one am thrilled they won't be rushed to the majors until they're ready. And that the major league rotation won't be held hostage to mere promise with no reliable backup plan, the way the center field spot was. Worst case, they are all so unbelievable good that the Twins are forced to trade someone, or have some really good pitchers in the bullpen. I just don't get how that is a problem.

I would just add that if their revenue doubles, and they double their payroll, their profit STILL doubles. And they're not even doing that! I was never a big fan of just accepting as an axiom that payroll = half of revenue. To me that just means, give us a subsidy, and we'll pocket half of it, and MAYBE we'll consider spending some of the rest on the team. But our cut is 50% minimum. And everyone usually confines their kvetching to the unspent part of the "available" 50%. But why? I would like to think that if we subsidize a private business, that money should at least go into the team, not straight into the bank. Seriously. I would have much rather seen a bond initiative to just go out and sign free agents, and give them to the Twins. If you really wanted a new stadium, make the subsidy contingent on the Twins building a new stadium with their own money. You'd get more for your money that way. I hate no-strings-attached giveaways. You sign the check, you call the shots. (Otherwise it's like giving banks billions of dollars so they'll lend money to people, but never actually requiring them to do so! Oh...) But think of how much more fun a direct subsidy would have been. You could require a new vote each year, to keep the pressure on the Twins to spend their own money too, or we walk. You could vote for shadow GMs to decide how to spend the money: nominate your favorite blogger! Or if you wanted to let Twins management decide who to sign--they after all know more about building a team than we do--we could say, the state will match every dollar you spend on payroll over $100 million. I'd vote for that! At least, I'd choose that over just giving them a stadium, and hoping they spend some of the new revenue on players, and then watching them make record profits instead. By the way, I love the use of the verb "pocketed" -- one of may favorites when talking about moneybags types.

"Only a band aid with very little stick-um on it. What's the plan Terry? Where are you going with this team?" nice metaphor. You could also say, spray-on hair to conceal a bald spot (or try to) and of course there's the proverbial, "lipstick on a pig."

I just wanted to say thanks for a really informative and thought-provoking article. I feel like 80% of what I know about Masterson I just learned here -- and I thought I knew about him before. I really love the blend of scouting, mechanics, medical analysis, interviews, and statistics. Just great stuff from beginning to end. Thanks, and keep 'em coming!

Did he say anything specific about his progress on improving secondary pitches or control? I'd be especially interested in hearing what he had to say about that. No one is concerned about his fastball but if he could improve his other pitches he could really reach another plateau entirely. From what I hear.

Please, please don't rush him before he's ready. It's depressing to watch a guy with talent fail to develop it in the majors, squanding his potential, and years of service time. Seen that too many times before. Give him a year at AAA and make him improve to earn a promotion. Clean up his swing, improve his plate discipline, whatever it takes. The most depressing thing about that fangraphs scouting report was not that he has little power, doesn't walk, and is only an average fielder. While acknowledging his fantastic hand-eye coordination and plate coverage, they say his mindless pulling of outside pitches is creating frequent ground balls, and if he doesn't get smarter, he's doomed. They say he's getting away with a lot of failed pull attempts as groundballs squeak through the infield, but in mlb, they'll just shift to close the hole in the infield, and they'll all be outs. What is the downside of making a player earn his promotion by fixing flaws? As far as I can see, it's win-win. The player greatly improves his skills, career numbers and earnings. The team avoids wasting a year of service time on a dingbat kid, but instead gets the same number of years from a more mature, superior player. Everyone's happy. The only reason to rush him is to make the 2014 more exciting. Just like we did with Hicks, Gomez, Young, etc. Do fans really want to watch tantalizing potential be frittered away? Or would they rather watch you build a good team. Would Arcia's OBP be better if he'd spent a solid year in AAA instead of swinging for the seats for two years of partial duty? Who knows. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt on that. Personally I'd err on the side of focusing on improvement in the minors during their free years in exchange for production in the majors during their mature years. It's certainly possible Arcia is learning more against major league pitching. But it's hard to argue that Hicks, Young, and Gomez benefited by being rushed to the majors. I think in all those cases the driving force was PR. Hicks had to play to justify trading Revere and Span. They couldn't trade both and just leave a gaping hole. The narrative had to be, he's too exciting and too ready to get stuck in the minors. That was clearly wrong. Young couldn't be an unpolished, undisciplined hitter with great potential; he had to be a budding star that justified losing Garza and Bartlett during what turned out to be a near-playoff year. Gomez couldn't be sent to the minors, even though he clearly needed seasoning, or they'd have nothing to show for the Santana trade. In all those cases, the results were disastrous. In this case, the PR debacle is four 90-loss seasons. Will they make the same short-sighted decision again?

bingo

Well there's only a need for so many people with major league bat speed -- but you can't have too many people with personality! Sounds like you've got the far more important "Twins Blog comment gene." Hope to hear more from you!

"Working on secondary pitches and FB command" -- that is my priority. If these people are the cornerstone of the future, let's invest the time in making them as good as they can be. And not just so their low-cost service time in the majors is spent pitching well, instead of learning on the job -- though that is a huge benefit, and not to be scoffed at -- but so they reach the peak of their abilities at all. I think the minor leagues are for learning. And the process works. Skipping levels should be a rare thing -- like Joe Mauer or Jason Kubel rare. Not Carlos Gomez and Aaron Hicks skipping AAA entirely just to prove to the fans that the ownership hadn't given up on the present. Those both were huge disasters. Build a winning team by teaching these guys everything you can in the minors, so when they come up, they are truly ready to kick ass. Watching Trevor May walk people and fail to fool anyone with his offspeed pitches would be the most depressing thing imaginable. Making him fine tune his game while dominating minor league pitchers is just fine with me. You're trading a year of ****tiness now for a year of cheap, masterful pitching in 2019, when it matters, and when he'll be at the peak of his powers, versus risking that he'll never develop at all. Did the Twins screw up by teaching Santana a changeup in the minors? Or did they prepare him for success in the majors? Take however long it takes to make sure May has three good pitches that will all confound pro hitters. Don't squander his future on a lost year in 2014

You may be right in this particular case but as a general policy I think you're slightly overstating things. There are very good reasons to keep a player in the minors besides penny pinching. Primarily, they still have things to learn. Trevor May seems like a perfect example of this. Every scouting report I've ever read said he had a good fastball but suspect control, and he needed to work on his secondary pitches. His ERA the past two years certainly bore out that he had a lot to learn. Now he's finally had a hot month, after struggling for two years. Does that mean his control issues are now over, and that his secondary pitches are major league quality? I have no idea. Personally, I don't think one month after two bad years ices the deal. I personally would rather see him down there, learning, than up here, struggling. Bring him up when he's ready. Is he ready, or are the coaches still working with him on his control and secondary pitches? I have no idea. But having found great fault with the twins for rushing Aaron Hicks, and before that Carlos Gomez, who to me seemed like they were rushed to the majors way, way before they were ready -- most likely just to satisfy the hunger of the fans -- I'm not about ro lambaste them for NOT rushing a prospect with well documented holes in his game.

They did??? Awesome! Is that on youtube?

Pavano turned out to be good for another couple years. How would a long term contract have worked out? Arroyo would require many more years than a Pavano comparison would justify.

I really hope they don't rush Meyer. I've never seen him pitch but from what I've read his control is still inconsistent and his secondary pitches need work. Why oh why would you promote him before he's ready? The team isn't going anywhere anyway. It seems more likely to derail his development than accelerate it. And you start his service time early. Learn the lesson of Aaron Hicks.

I love it! At that price, he'd be worth it even if he ended up a reliever! Sure he could flame out, but given his history and his unfriendly home park, he's also got some serious upside -- and for a total investment less than one third the cost of Nolasco. This is the type of gamble they need to take, and it doesn't even use up their remaining budget. If he finally reaches anything near his potential, this is a steal. If he never pitches below a 5 ERA, it won't kill them. Plus his worst case scenario isn't even that bad, as he has experience as an effective reliever. I'm thrilled. Maybe that's just knee-jerk amazement that they signed two pitchers in three days, but hey, how often have we ever ever heard that sentence?

couldn't they just wait till after the Rule 5 draft to sign Nolasco?

All those guys would have a better chance than Duensing, who has never been able to get out right handers. Until he shows a hint of being able to do that, the idea is a joke. Unless you're trying to plump up his trade value, even floating it is insane.

p.s. This scenario is exactly what made me gnash my teeth when they foolishly, foolishly traded Ramos. The idea that Ramos was expendable because we had Mauer was insane. He was indispensable BECAUSE we had Mauer. Mauer needed to be protected, and he couldn't be properly protected because if he didn't catch, you were stuck with Butera. Dumb, dumb trade.

I'm one of those people, and yes, Nick just convinced me. This injury is a tipping point for me. I have always thought that what made Mauer uniquely valuable was the incredible offensive production he brought to a defensive position. It was almost like having an extra DH: Starting a batting champion at catcher, AND being able to park a slugger at first, is way more valuable than playing him at first. Moving Mauer to first means swapping a hitter like Butera for a hitter like Morneau. That drop off is so huge, I always thought you should drag out his catching as long as possible, or at least phase it out slowly. But this concussion changes everything. Once you have one this bad, you're primed for another. Even a small collision can reactivate symptoms. You saw it with Coskie and you saw it with Morneau. (Both of whom were Canadian, and presumably took a lot of shots to the head playing hockey, leaving them primed for further brain damage.) When you have as much invested in one player as you do in Mauer, it just makes taking that risk even more unthinkable. But the money is minor compared to the physical risks. It was almost worth moving him just to protect his knees, because of that long term contract. But now, playing catcher has become like putting a gun to his head. So to answer your question, yes, this column changed my mind.

I hope Slama signs with the A's and does well there, just like Breslow, Balfour, and Neshek. If the Twins didn't want to give him a shot, and they obviously didn't, they should have traded him years ago. Now he's apparently playing hurt and will have a hard time catching on. But I'll be rooting for him.

Deduno is at least worth watching -- he's interesting! If you're not going to win much anyone, I'd rather watch strikeouts, wild pitches, walks, and unpredictable ball movement, where anything can happen on any pitch, than some mediocrity who keeps it around the plate and gets slowly but methodically scored on.