DaTwins

Brock, have read Mike Fast or Max Marchi's work on this subject? It's pretty convincing. You can argue degrees, but framing is absolutely significant.

I'm not exactly sure what to make of this, but MLBtr has all three receiving contract offers on their "non-tender" tracker.

And he could double as good lefty out of the 'pen when necessary. A "super-Duensing" type.

One thing I was wondering about, how much do you think these guys will get in free agency?

Darin, I agree that Gorzelanny could be worth a flyer. He's always had good strikeout rates and I liked him a lot with the Pirates. However, I see him as more of a good lefty reliever. But you're right, he's an interesting guy.

I wrote this last night at PitchersDuel.blogspot.com, but decided it was relevant here as well. Should the Twins go after any of these guys? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Midnight tonight, the final day of November, is the last chance for teams to tender contracts to eligible players. Eligibility is based on service time and generally includes any players with less than 6 years in the major leagues. Leading up to midnight, news will be coming in regarding team's decisions on these players, many of whom are very interesting. Be it injuries or unrealistic salary expectations, there are going to be a lot of players with bright futures ahead of them searching for jobs. Because I'm cooped up in the library tonight, I'll periodically check in and comment on noteworthy transactions and analyze how some of these players could help the Twins (or any team). Starting Pitchers Jair Jurrjens: Jair posted a 120 career ERA+ over 115 starts before 2012. Looking like an anchor in the Braves rotation going into last season, Jurrjens struggled mightily, spending the majority of the year in AAA. His velocity and strikeout rates have been trending down, which is never a good sign. However, he has been plagued with knee and groin injuries that could potentially be the root of the problem. Jurrjens was ultimately non-tendered because he would have almost certainly earned $5.5 million (equal to his 2012 pay) had the Braves taken him to arbitration. As a result, there should be significant interest in his services for next season and will have an outside shot at whichever team's rotation he chooses. Mike Pelfrey: He's been an inconsistent pitcher for the Mets, looking like a top of the rotation guy in 2008 and 2010 and looking like a #5 at best in 2009 and 2011. Most low-strikeout pitchers will have a wide distribution of success as their margin for error is relatively smaller. The biggest issue here is that Pelfrey will be returning from Tommy John surgery that occurred last April. Obviously there is a ton of uncertainty when you're dealing with such an injury, however, so many pitchers are returning as healthy as ever that Pelfrey is certainly worth a shot for a team like the Twins who could use any help they can get. Jeff Karstens: Karstens is interesting for a couple of reasons; first of all, DERP and second of all his numbers show he's actually been productive. Jeff's K/9 has been increasing as his BB/9 has steadily declined; in 2012 he reached 6.6 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9. Granted, a switch from the National League isn't a nudge in the right direction, Karstens absolutely deserves a shot at the back of some manager's rotation. John Lannan: Lefty starter, similar story to Pelfrey. Lannan has the potential to be a passable #4, but more likely a decent #5. Jacob Brigham: He's been passed back and forth from the Rangers to the Cubs back to the Rangers in exchange for Geo Soto and Barret Loux. Brigham has hit 97 mph in the past, but now sits in the lower 90's. I'm not sure what to think about him, but Brigham is a name to keep your eye on as a potential minor league deal with an outside shot at the rotation Outfielders Andres Torres: One of the older players on this list, Torres, 34, presents an interesting skillset the Twins would be wise to try out. Torres has a little pop (.130 ISO career), good wheels (73% career base-stealer) and very good glove (Postitive UZR's in left, right and center). In addition, Torres shows good patience, with a 10% walk rate. However, all this comes with significant questions about his bat, he's hit .221 and .230 over the past two seasons. I would expect a slight uptick in the batting average, perhaps into the .240 range, which would really tie a nice bow on the package that is Andres Torres. I'm mentioning him as a target for the Twins, because with Span gone, they will be counting Chris Parmelee in right field; I love Parmelee's bat, but he's a terrible outfielder. Torres, a switch-hitter who mashes lefties, would be an ideal platoon partner with Parmelee, or at the very least, a fourth-outfielder to push Parmelee and Revere every day and spell Willingham when he has his inevitable DL stint. Ben Francisco: A long Indian, Francisco profiles as a third-division right fielder. That is, if you disregard 2012 when he spent time in Toronto, Houston and Tampa Bay. Francisco, a right-handed hitter, has shown decent power and on-base skills. Despite troubles in 2011 and 2012, I view Francisco as bounce back candidate in 2013. So that's it for the night. No huge shockers. A couple relievers to keep your eye on are Brian Wilson and Peter Moylan, not that either will land in the Twin Cities, but they will be interesting to watch regardless. Here's looking forward to the Winter Meetings on Monday! Cheers!

I wrote this last night at PitchersDuel.blogspot.com, but decided it was relevant here as well. Should the Twins go after any of these guys? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Midnight tonight, the final day of November, is the last chance for teams to tender contracts to eligible players. Eligibility is based on service time and generally includes any players with less than 6 years in the major leagues. Leading up to midnight, news will be coming in regarding team's decisions on these players, many of whom are very interesting. Be it injuries or unrealistic salary expectations, there are going to be a lot of players with bright futures ahead of them searching for jobs. Because I'm cooped up in the library tonight, I'll periodically check in and comment on noteworthy transactions and analyze how some of these players could help the Twins (or any team). Starting Pitchers Jair Jurrjens: Jair posted a 120 career ERA+ over 115 starts before 2012. Looking like an anchor in the Braves rotation going into last season, Jurrjens struggled mightily, spending the majority of the year in AAA. His velocity and strikeout rates have been trending down, which is never a good sign. However, he has been plagued with knee and groin injuries that could potentially be the root of the problem. Jurrjens was ultimately non-tendered because he would have almost certainly earned $5.5 million (equal to his 2012 pay) had the Braves taken him to arbitration. As a result, there should be significant interest in his services for next season and will have an outside shot at whichever team's rotation he chooses. Mike Pelfrey: He's been an inconsistent pitcher for the Mets, looking like a top of the rotation guy in 2008 and 2010 and looking like a #5 at best in 2009 and 2011. Most low-strikeout pitchers will have a wide distribution of success as their margin for error is relatively smaller. The biggest issue here is that Pelfrey will be returning from Tommy John surgery that occurred last April. Obviously there is a ton of uncertainty when you're dealing with such an injury, however, so many pitchers are returning as healthy as ever that Pelfrey is certainly worth a shot for a team like the Twins who could use any help they can get. Jeff Karstens: Karstens is interesting for a couple of reasons; first of all, DERP and second of all his numbers show he's actually been productive. Jeff's K/9 has been increasing as his BB/9 has steadily declined; in 2012 he reached 6.6 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9. Granted, a switch from the National League isn't a nudge in the right direction, Karstens absolutely deserves a shot at the back of some manager's rotation. John Lannan: Lefty starter, similar story to Pelfrey. Lannan has the potential to be a passable #4, but more likely a decent #5. Jacob Brigham: He's been passed back and forth from the Rangers to the Cubs back to the Rangers in exchange for Geo Soto and Barret Loux. Brigham has hit 97 mph in the past, but now sits in the lower 90's. I'm not sure what to think about him, but Brigham is a name to keep your eye on as a potential minor league deal with an outside shot at the rotation Outfielders Andres Torres: One of the older players on this list, Torres, 34, presents an interesting skillset the Twins would be wise to try out. Torres has a little pop (.130 ISO career), good wheels (73% career base-stealer) and very good glove (Postitive UZR's in left, right and center). In addition, Torres shows good patience, with a 10% walk rate. However, all this comes with significant questions about his bat, he's hit .221 and .230 over the past two seasons. I would expect a slight uptick in the batting average, perhaps into the .240 range, which would really tie a nice bow on the package that is Andres Torres. I'm mentioning him as a target for the Twins, because with Span gone, they will be counting Chris Parmelee in right field; I love Parmelee's bat, but he's a terrible outfielder. Torres, a switch-hitter who mashes lefties, would be an ideal platoon partner with Parmelee, or at the very least, a fourth-outfielder to push Parmelee and Revere every day and spell Willingham when he has his inevitable DL stint. Ben Francisco: A long Indian, Francisco profiles as a third-division right fielder. That is, if you disregard 2012 when he spent time in Toronto, Houston and Tampa Bay. Francisco, a right-handed hitter, has shown decent power and on-base skills. Despite troubles in 2011 and 2012, I view Francisco as bounce back candidate in 2013. So that's it for the night. No huge shockers. A couple relievers to keep your eye on are Brian Wilson and Peter Moylan, not that either will land in the Twin Cities, but they will be interesting to watch regardless. Here's looking forward to the Winter Meetings on Monday! Cheers!

Who do you propose we should listen to then? I'm sure KLaw has talked to multiple scouts who've seen Rosario play to couple with his own observations. It's not perfect, but it's among the best information sources available to those of us on the outside.

$14-15 million on one year isn't bad at all. It's actually a good upside play. His peripherals are solid, despite declining velo, he's a prime candidate for a bounce back. Edit: This in regard to Haren. I wouldn't gamble on Santana's option, for the record.

In a season with few positive notes for the Minnesota Twins, one had to be Scott Diamond's breakout. On April 6th, Diamond was barely an afterthought; he had been selected in the previous year's Rule V draft and stashed in AAA where he failed to impress anybody, pitching himself to a 4-14 record with a 5.56 ERA in 2011. By May 8th, Diamond had generated some buzz, starting 6 games and allowing just 12 runs in his third season in AAA. His first major league start was a resounding success as he pitched 7 scoreless innings. The rest of 2012 went much the same way, Diamond became the Twins most reliable starter. Wait, that's barely a compliment given the Twins' rotation options, let me rephrase that. Diamond became an above average starter in the American League. Diamond's success comes with plenty of questions though. For one, how did he do that? Another, what do we know about the pitcher himself? And lastly, what can we expect out of him in the future? The Numbers The easiest entryway into this case study is to look at what Diamond accomplished in 2012. He started 27 games netting 173 innings (207.2 including AAA time). In that time, the Canadian lasted at least five innings in all but one start. Diamond recorded a 3.54 ERA, well below the league average of 4.08. His FIP (3.94) and xFIP (3.93) tell slightly stories, though still impressive. These numbers reflect a few very good underlying skills, namely his control and groundball ability. Diamond led the American League yielding 1.6 unintentional walks per game and never allowing more than 3 in any outing. On top of that, Scott was able to induce 53.4% groundballs when the ball was put in play. For context, that's tenth in all of baseball. Diamond was able to translate these two elite (and very Twins-pitcher-like) skills into a nice season, despite a 4.7 SO/9 rate (2nd worst in the AL). Few pitchers, if any, are able to have sustainable success with such low K-rates, so his ability to miss bats going forward will be something to watch. Interestingly, the statistics that are often correlated with luck don't discout Diamond's success in 2012. His babip, .292 is not out of line, especially for a ground ball pitcher and his HR/FB percentage of 11.4 is also right about average as is his strand rate (73.3%). These data suggest Diamond's breakout isn't a total mirage. The extent to which he regresses will be largely a function of his striking out a few more and continuing to avoid giving up free passes. The Repertoire (almost all data from BrooksBaseball.net, great resource) Four-seam fastball (90.00 mph) Slider (81.99 mph) Changeup (84.35 mph) Scott Diamond relied heavily on his fastball in 2012, throwing it 60% of the time. The pitch rarely got any swings-and-misses (2.79%) but resulted in groundballs 13.42% of the time and was located well as only 36.07% of them went for balls. Diamond's slider was primarily an out pitch, used mostly when he was in the count. Surprisingly, the slider was also a deadly accurate weapon, only 28.43% of them resulted in balls. Not so surprising is that the slider produced the most whiffs of any of his pitches (15.05%). The change-up was used almost exclusively against righties, about 16% in those situations, and only five times all year versus a lefty. The pitch yielded more whiffs than his fastball but didn't get as many grounders. All this leads me to believe that his change-up is more a "show-me" pitch than anything else. When put all together, Diamond's repertoire is pretty simple: a two pitch mix against lefties and three against right-handed hitters. A lot of Diamonds success comes from his ability to pound the lower, inside half of the strike zone (as shown below) resulting in a lot of groundballs. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jpagf1GJOCY/UH3SpTvVpSI/AAAAAAAAAI4/evVYCXYiznk/s320/Screen+Shot+2012-10-15+at+2.17.50+PM.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0u9tCb_RDu8/UH3SjxMkeRI/AAAAAAAAAIw/_820Ho4BqOQ/s320/Screen+Shot+2012-10-15+at+2.18.03+PM.png Interestingly, Diamond's fastball actually ticked upwards from 2011 to 2012. He gained about 0.5 mph on his fastball and 1.5 mph on his slider. There are many possible reasons for the uptick: weather or increased stamina and strength to name a few. These are all likely causes of the uptick, however, they cannot be measured. Of factors that can be measured I found one interesting change from 2011 to 2012: his arm angle. As seen in the chart below, Diamond lowered his arm angle (roughly 3-4" out and 2-3"down). http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--bKVMLkbB8E/UIBLeAkO8WI/AAAAAAAAAJY/8USH9-1MgZg/s320/Screen+Shot+2012-10-15+at+2.11.48+PM.pnghttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gnPkMz8E9i0/UIBK7njneUI/AAAAAAAAAJQ/8MRrHqR0kRc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2012-10-15+at+2.11.37+PM.png My initial feeling on this was a bit of confusion. Usually pitchers with lower arm angles don't throw as hard, at least that's my perception. I e-mailed Andy about his thoughts on the change and corroborated my belief that the change would add movement to his slider, but he also had some other enlightening idas on the subject. Particularly, that lowering the arm angle could free up his motion and actually add velocity to his pitches. With this knowledge, it's a little easier to accept that Diamond has truly "broken out" to some degree. Under the basis of changed mechanics, more velocity and increased control, Diamond was able to change (or enhance) his skills as a pitcher The Future Predicting the future of a pitcher is impossible, but given what we do know, we can make a fairly good guess. Diamond's basic skills of control and ability to get groundballs are likely here to stay, however, his inability of striking out batters is very troubling and will absolutely limit his upside. In fact, I think we saw Diamond's upside in 2012. That isn't to disparage his future, Diamond was very good for the Twins last season and could have been #2 or #3 starter on many teams. It is likely that Diamond will regress towards a league average 4.00 ERA predicted by FIP, xFIP and SIERA (all ERA estimators). Sadly enough for the Twins, a league average pitcher could be their ace in 2013 given the current outlook, making Scott Diamond an invaluable piece to puzzle. However, nobody should expect him to make significant strides from the success of his first full season. cross-posted on PitchersDuel.blogspot.com

In a season with few positive notes for the Minnesota Twins, one had to be Scott Diamond's breakout. On April 6th, Diamond was barely an afterthought; he had been selected in the previous year's Rule V draft and stashed in AAA where he failed to impress anybody, pitching himself to a 4-14 record with a 5.56 ERA in 2011. By May 8th, Diamond had generated some buzz, starting 6 games and allowing just 12 runs in his third season in AAA. His first major league start was a resounding success as he pitched 7 scoreless innings. The rest of 2012 went much the same way, Diamond became the Twins most reliable starter. Wait, that's barely a compliment given the Twins' rotation options, let me rephrase that. Diamond became an above average starter in the American League. Diamond's success comes with plenty of questions though. For one, how did he do that? Another, what do we know about the pitcher himself? And lastly, what can we expect out of him in the future? The Numbers The easiest entryway into this case study is to look at what Diamond accomplished in 2012. He started 27 games netting 173 innings (207.2 including AAA time). In that time, the Canadian lasted at least five innings in all but one start. Diamond recorded a 3.54 ERA, well below the league average of 4.08. His FIP (3.94) and xFIP (3.93) tell slightly stories, though still impressive. These numbers reflect a few very good underlying skills, namely his control and groundball ability. Diamond led the American League yielding 1.6 unintentional walks per game and never allowing more than 3 in any outing. On top of that, Scott was able to induce 53.4% groundballs when the ball was put in play. For context, that's tenth in all of baseball. Diamond was able to translate these two elite (and very Twins-pitcher-like) skills into a nice season, despite a 4.7 SO/9 rate (2nd worst in the AL). Few pitchers, if any, are able to have sustainable success with such low K-rates, so his ability to miss bats going forward will be something to watch. Interestingly, the statistics that are often correlated with luck don't discout Diamond's success in 2012. His babip, .292 is not out of line, especially for a ground ball pitcher and his HR/FB percentage of 11.4 is also right about average as is his strand rate (73.3%). These data suggest Diamond's breakout isn't a total mirage. The extent to which he regresses will be largely a function of his striking out a few more and continuing to avoid giving up free passes. The Repertoire (almost all data from BrooksBaseball.net, great resource) Four-seam fastball (90.00 mph) Slider (81.99 mph) Changeup (84.35 mph) Scott Diamond relied heavily on his fastball in 2012, throwing it 60% of the time. The pitch rarely got any swings-and-misses (2.79%) but resulted in groundballs 13.42% of the time and was located well as only 36.07% of them went for balls. Diamond's slider was primarily an out pitch, used mostly when he was in the count. Surprisingly, the slider was also a deadly accurate weapon, only 28.43% of them resulted in balls. Not so surprising is that the slider produced the most whiffs of any of his pitches (15.05%). The change-up was used almost exclusively against righties, about 16% in those situations, and only five times all year versus a lefty. The pitch yielded more whiffs than his fastball but didn't get as many grounders. All this leads me to believe that his change-up is more a "show-me" pitch than anything else. When put all together, Diamond's repertoire is pretty simple: a two pitch mix against lefties and three against right-handed hitters. A lot of Diamonds success comes from his ability to pound the lower, inside half of the strike zone (as shown below) resulting in a lot of groundballs. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jpagf1GJOCY/UH3SpTvVpSI/AAAAAAAAAI4/evVYCXYiznk/s320/Screen+Shot+2012-10-15+at+2.17.50+PM.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0u9tCb_RDu8/UH3SjxMkeRI/AAAAAAAAAIw/_820Ho4BqOQ/s320/Screen+Shot+2012-10-15+at+2.18.03+PM.png Interestingly, Diamond's fastball actually ticked upwards from 2011 to 2012. He gained about 0.5 mph on his fastball and 1.5 mph on his slider. There are many possible reasons for the uptick: weather or increased stamina and strength to name a few. These are all likely causes of the uptick, however, they cannot be measured. Of factors that can be measured I found one interesting change from 2011 to 2012: his arm angle. As seen in the chart below, Diamond lowered his arm angle (roughly 3-4" out and 2-3"down). http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--bKVMLkbB8E/UIBLeAkO8WI/AAAAAAAAAJY/8USH9-1MgZg/s320/Screen+Shot+2012-10-15+at+2.11.48+PM.pnghttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gnPkMz8E9i0/UIBK7njneUI/AAAAAAAAAJQ/8MRrHqR0kRc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2012-10-15+at+2.11.37+PM.png My initial feeling on this was a bit of confusion. Usually pitchers with lower arm angles don't throw as hard, at least that's my perception. I e-mailed Andy about his thoughts on the change and corroborated my belief that the change would add movement to his slider, but he also had some other enlightening idas on the subject. Particularly, that lowering the arm angle could free up his motion and actually add velocity to his pitches. With this knowledge, it's a little easier to accept that Diamond has truly "broken out" to some degree. Under the basis of changed mechanics, more velocity and increased control, Diamond was able to change (or enhance) his skills as a pitcher The Future Predicting the future of a pitcher is impossible, but given what we do know, we can make a fairly good guess. Diamond's basic skills of control and ability to get groundballs are likely here to stay, however, his inability of striking out batters is very troubling and will absolutely limit his upside. In fact, I think we saw Diamond's upside in 2012. That isn't to disparage his future, Diamond was very good for the Twins last season and could have been #2 or #3 starter on many teams. It is likely that Diamond will regress towards a league average 4.00 ERA predicted by FIP, xFIP and SIERA (all ERA estimators). Sadly enough for the Twins, a league average pitcher could be their ace in 2013 given the current outlook, making Scott Diamond an invaluable piece to puzzle. However, nobody should expect him to make significant strides from the success of his first full season. cross-posted on PitchersDuel.blogspot.com

I'd like to second this statement. To me, TR seems fed up with the poor outcomes from rehab. I have a hard time blaming injury decisions on the F.O. moreso than the medical staff. Even Texas' genius F.O had Neftali Feliz sitting on the DL for a couple months before he was slated to get TJ.

Any update on Buxton's injury?

Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus went the MWL All-Star game, and had some interesting stuff on Tonkin (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17433) So that's good news!

He's on the best streak of his career right now. I don't think it's fair to say he can keep this up or realistic to extrapolate these numbers. I'm sure there are samples of Jason Kubel's career here that you could argue make him a 40 home run type of guy too, and he's a much better hitter than Plouffe. Though, I do agree that 25 could be attainable at the high side of estimates, seeing as he's been increasing his power for the last ~3 or 4 years.