Riverbrian

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/26/uk-epidemiologist-radically-lowers-his-predicted-c/ I have no opinion. Just sharing.

I have stated multiple times in this thread that my posts are just noise. I don't take offense if you chose to listen to an expert over a learned man. I suggest it and think it is smart to go straight to the source of experts because all I have to offer is my regurgitation of those I'm relying on. I stopped posting those numbers because I am of the opinion that until the reporting of the number of tests are more accurate, the information was probably not worth what it could be and I believe it could be worth something just seeing what happens to the numbers when the data increases. Do the percentages go down or up. You'd think down... but they were primarily going up. I only started posting them because I have the opinion that the daily reporting of numerators (confirmed cases and deaths) that have at least a two week lag are misleading without the important denominator of how many tests have been taken. As long as Maryland sits with 517 tests taken on March 26th. As long as Michigan has stopped reporting Negative test results. As long as States, Cities, Hospitals are making their own determinations on who gets tested based upon their own standard or the amount of test kits that must be rationed or whatever. I kinda questioned the value of what I was doing and I stopped. In short, I was mostly doing it to make myself feel better, information always makes me feel better, gives me the illusion of control and since I put the work in... I thought that I'd share it. It came across as sterile and it didn't seem to make anyone else feel better.

I don't believe it is less deadly than the flu so I won't spew that. But, are we talking percentage or overall deaths when this is all over? Percentage... I 100% believe that it is way more deadly than the flu. I don't believe it can be argued. The number of deaths overall... I don't know. My personal opinion has been formed by reading experts nearly exclusively. While, the experts I'm reading are united in their collective opinion, they are also united with the frequent use of the phrase "I Don't Know" because they are still learning every day about something they had no information on mere months ago and they have been hamstrung by the lack of information they need to zero in on a clear answer. I started reading after March Madness was cancelled to find out why the extraordinary act of cancelling it happened. I haven't stopped reading since. I am pouring through anywhere from 10 to 30 articles each and every day. I have nothing better to do since I am doing my best to shelter in place as much as possible based on the things that I am reading. I have no expectation whatsoever that others are doing what I'm doing to the degree that I'm doing it. I tend to be obsessive. Others are forming their opinion based upon however, they come to it. I'm versed and prepared to argue with anyone using the information that I have selected to read but I find that nobody is impressed by the amount of articles that I'm reading. Nobody has said, you are right Brian, I'm going to follow your advice and honestly... I don't think I should be giving advice just because I'm reading 10 to 30 articles a day. I'm just opinionated and passionate. Diehard's post was a representation of what many people are thinking right now. I will debate it full-throated but just stomping on his head after he expressed it will only lead to one opinion allowed. He stated it... I debated it. That's how it is supposed to work. He isn't alone in his opinion... I'm not alone in mine. You are not alone in yours.

I have spoken to a lot of people about the Coronavirus, all people that I have great respect for and these conversations have taken place during the entire month of March. It is the topic that dwarfs all topics these days, it's conversation that you can't escape. All of them are good solid human beings, who pay their taxes and raise their kids to the best of their ability. I can say that everyone has a unique opinion on the situation, I can say that everyone has varied levels of how much research they've done to form their opinions, from hardly any at all, to more research in a month than they did in 4 years of college. And I repeat my often spoken Mantra that we choose our information sources to fit our personal preferences and it just ends up separating us to a level unseen before in this country. Statesmanship is gone and it has been replaced by theater and anger. Nobody knows how to speak to the other side anymore. I've heard everything from Hoax to a Million will die in the United States. We are all sorting through a lot right now. My posts are my personal opinion, I feel strongly about them but they are just added noise to the collection of noise that is bouncing around our ear drums at the moment from many different directions. Welcome to America in the year 2020.

Today, In the state of North Dakota. Tiny McIntosh County - Population 2,606 in Central North Dakota along the South Dakota border 2 hours from any population center just had it's first confirmed case. A 9 year old boy. I'm going to assume that he wasn't a world traveler. Quite possible that he has traveled somewhere with his parents. No details but I'm going to assume he wasn't a world traveler when he had school to attend. This raises that Asymptomatic transmission flag much higher in my mind.

Exactly Two birds with one stone.

https://www.pressherald.com/2020/03/26/the-latest-mexican-protesters-block-border-crossing-demand-more-screenings-on-traffic-from-u-s/

In my opinion, your concerns about the economy are valid. I just disagree with the numbers (and sentiment) you use to support that opinion. Saying people are going to die anyway, is where you lose me. I believe your argument about the economy is stronger without the shock and awe of minimizing the casualties. That is where you lost me. Unfortunately, I don't have an economic solution at the moment. I'm currently not comfortable throwing the doors open until the science (at least) gets a chance to catch up. I to... would have done things differently, if I was in charge and all I have to say to that is: Thank God I'm not in charge. This would be a nightmare to be in charge of. I'm trying to do my best not to Monday Morning QB, I want to look forward to what needs to be done and solve this as quickly as possible. My motivation is selfish. I want to see my Dad again. Who rightfully so, is currently locked up in a nursing home. It is my opinion, when this is over. When we look back at it all. Testing will be the obvious mistake that was made. Testing early and often could have lessened all of this and now that the horse has left the barn... testing can be the road map out of it but it is going to require a larger scale because of the time that was wasted. If Trump wants to restart the economy by Easter. He will need more stable information to do it and the testing isn't near where it needs to be for any such consideration. If he wants the people of Western Texas to get back to work while New York is shut down. He better know what is going on in Western Texas with solid stable sampling. We need more testing beyond those who are showing symptoms.,Stohastic testing in homes. We need testing for anti-bodies so those with anti-bodies can go back to work safely. When New York starts coming out the other side... maybe they can go back to work. We won't know without testing. We need information and information is what the Epidemiologists have been screaming for since the beginning. There are 15 million Snickers candy bars produced every day. When you consider all the other products that are produced in the millions every day. We can as a country (World) produce the testing kits needed and get them out to the public. With our current new found unemployment problem, we should have no problem finding the workforce to quickly train enough people to read the tests and input the data. Which our experts can read and find the path out quicker. This is how America back in the 40's produced enough ships, planes and tanks to go from mid-pack to military super power in a short time during WWII. Rosie the Riveter stepped up and supported the front lines. That's why they were called the greatest generation, and that generation... I will not turn my back on at this time.

Quiet Night at Home CNN on the TV with no audio. I can't hear what they are saying but a thought has occurred to me. Sanjay Gupta must be tired. He's on morning, noon and night.

Italy is ahead of us on the Curve. Spain is ahead of us on the curve. So Here is an article from the future. Spoiler Alert: https://www.fox46charlotte.com/news/we-are-collapsing-coronavirus-pummels-medics-in-spain-and-italy

Diehard, you are missing one very important factor. The Death Rate/Percentage depends on medical care. If proper medical care is accomplished. We could see Death rates under 1%. If the Hospitals become overwhelmed we could see death rates above 3%. Maybe as high as 6%. They are pretty damn high in Italy because of the hospitals being overwhelmed among other factors. And of course... Hospitals being overwhelmed happens because of more cases and more cases makes that gap between 1% and 3% huge. And... you can't look at the current death rates and do current math. There is around a two week lag. People infected two weeks ago are not confirmed... yet. Confirmed cases today are not dead... yet. All those numbers come tomorrow and the day after that and the day after that. I'm reading stuff from experts who say that limiting contact by 25% can cut the number of cases by 50%... but because of the lag we won't see the results of social distancing for a couple more weeks. Which means upward exponential growth until then. The next couple of weeks is going to be new ride for us all. You are right... Social distancing is about lowering the rate of exposure, which in turns leads to preventing a significant amount of deaths. You lose me when you reduce it to "You may save a life or two here or there because medical providers will be better equipped to keep up". The savings in terms of lives could be quite significant. As for your main point about the economy. I'm neither Democrat or Republican and I am about as anti-political a person as you've met and I have no plans to join either side at any time. I will say this without reservation. The country has never been more divided and getting worse by the second and it's spiraling out of control with no end in sight, I plan to stay in the middle and stay out of political discussion because I'm watching both sides drift further from me and it has gotten to the point that one side can't even talk to the other side. You are correct when it comes to the risk and the economy. The cold hard reality is this: When we elect someone for President, Governor, The US Senate, The US Congress, State Legislators, Mayors and even Bob down the street for City Council. We elect them for times like these. The job always has the risk of something like this coming down the pike and it produces the stunning responsibility of making the determination on who lives and dies. During good times the live or die number is small and times like these the live or die number is large. It's like being a General and making the determination that this battalion has to be sacrificed for the greater good. That is the debate before all of them right now. We voted and we now live with our choices. And just like there is a lag between infection to confirmed and a lag from confirmed to death. There is a lag between election day and our elected officials having to make large scale life and death decisions. Meaning, the decisions we make today matters in what happens tomorrow. On March 25th, 2020 we are living with the consequences of decisions made in January, In January we were living with the consequences of those we elected in whatever November it was.

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-testing-us-strategy-asymptomatic-rand-paul-ae8a58dd-9b44-49a0-a3f5-05346260e0c3.html

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tests-vs-confirmed-cases-covid-19 Data tracking the number of tests world wide.

This story leaves me speechless. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/us/west-virginia-coronavirus-patient-one-test/index.html

https://covidtracking.com/data/ March 21 United States: 179,220 Tests - 23,203 Positive - 1 out of 7.72 (Up) New York: 45,437 Tests - 10,356 Positive - 1 out of 4.38 (Sadly Up) Washington: 23,243 - 1524 Positive - 1 out of 15.25 (Down - Has gone down each day - Encouraging) California: 12,528 Tests - 1279 Positive - 1 out of 9.79 (Up) Florida: 7237 Tests - 658 Positive - 1 out of 10.99 (Way Down) Texas: 6522 Tests - 304 Positive - 1 out of 21.45 (Up) Illinois: 6247 Tests - 759 Positive - 1 out of 8.23 (Way Down) Massachusetts: 5277 Tests - 525 Positive - 1 out of 10.05 (Down) North Carolina: 5276 Tests - 184 Positive - 1 out of 28.67 (Down) Wisconsin: 4967 Tests - 281 Positive - 1 out of 17.67 (Flat) Pennsylvania: 4137 Tests - 371 Positive - 1 out of 11.15 (Down) Minnesota: 4090 Tests - 138 Positive - 1 out of 29.63 (Up) New Mexico: 3828 Tests - 57 Positive - 1 out of 67.15 (Up) Colorado: 3680 Tests - 363 Positive - 1 out of 9.60 (Up) Tennessee: 3643 Tests - 371 Positive - 1 out of 9.81 (First time over 1000 tests) Georgia 3064 Tests - 507 Positive - 1 out of 6.04 (Down) Michigan: 2856 Tests - 787 Positive - 1 out of 3.62 (Way Up - 286 New Tests all Positives were added) Virginia: 2790 Tests - 152 Positive - 1 out of 18.35 (Up) Louisiana: 2765 Tests - 585 Positive - 1 out of 4.72 (Down) Utah: 2560 Tests - 136 Positive - 1 out of 18.82 (Up) Oregon: 2550 Tests - 114 Positive - 1 out of 22.36 (Down) Nevada: 2508 Tests - 124 Positive - 1 out of 20.22 (Down) Maine: 2337 Tests - 73 Positive - 1 out of 32.01 (Up - 16 new tests reported all positive) Connecticut: 2300 Tests - 194 Positive - 1 out of 11.85 (First time over 1000 tests-test number is a guess) New Jersey: 1621 Tests - 1327 Positive - 1 out of 1.22 (Up - State isn't reporting all negatives) South Carolina: 1407 Tests - 152 Positive - 1 out of 9.52 (First time over 1000 tests) North Dakota: 1169 Tests - 28 Positive - 1 out of 41.75 (First Time over 1000 tests) Montana: 1166 Tests - 20 Positive - 1 out of 58.3 (First time over 1000 tests) Iowa: 1117 Tests - 68 Positive - 1 out of 16.42 (First time over 1000 tests) New Hampshire: 1028 Tests - 55 Positive - 1 out of 18.69 (First time over 1000 tests) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Most of the numbers for today are in: So I'm updating March 20 United States: 135,185 Tests - 17,038 Positive - 1 out of 7.93 (Up) New York: 32,427 Tests - 7102 Positive - 1 out of 4.56 (Up) Washington: 20,712 Tests - 1376 Positive - 1 out of 15.05 (Flat - No New Tests Reported) California: 11,487 Tests - 1063 Positive - 1 out of 10.80 (Down) Texas: 5277 Tests - 194 Positive - 1 out of 27.20 (Way Down) Illinois: 4286 Tests - 590 Positive - 1 out of 5.00 (Up) Massachusetts: 4091 Tests - 413 Positive - 1 out of 9.92 (Down) Minnesota: 3856 Tests - 115 Positive - 1 out of 33.53 (Up) Wisconsin: 3661 Tests - 206 Positive - 1 out of 17.77 (Down) North Carolina: 3233 Tests - 137 Positive - 1 out of 23.59 (Up) Colorado: 2952 Tests - 277 Positive -1 out of 10.65 (Flat - Just 10 new tests) Pennsylvania: 2842 Tests - 268 Positive - 1 out of 10.60 (Down) Michigan: 2618 Tests - 549 Positive - 1 out of 4.76 (Way Up) Florida: 2390 Tests - 520 Positive - 1 out of 4.59 (Up) Georgia: 2386 Tests - 420 Positive - 1 out of 5.68 (Up) Virginia: 2325 Tests - 114 Positive - 1 out of 20.39 (Flat) Maine: 2321 Tests - 57 Positive - 1 out of 40.71 (Down) Utah: 2147 Tests - 112 Positive - 1 out of 19.16 (Up) Oregon: 2117 Tests - 114 Positive - 1 out of 18.57 (Down) Nevada: 2101 Tests - 109 Positive - 1 out of 19.27 (Down) New Jersey: 1154 Tests - 1 out of 1.29 (First Time over 1,000 Tests) Louisiana: 1087 Tests - 479 Positive - 1 out of 2.26 (First time over 1,000 Tests) A couple of heavy weight additions in New Jersey and Louisiana. They both seem too high to believe. Grain of Salt. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Up/Down from the day before) (Bold - Above National Average) March 20: United States: 108,143 Tests - 12,397 Positive - 1 out of 8.72 (Up) New York: 22,284 Tests - 4152 Positive - 1 out of 5.36 (Up) Washington: 20,712 Tests - 1376 Positive - 1 out of 15.05 (Down) California: 9845 Tests - 1058 Positive - 1 out of 9.30 (Up) Illinois: 3151 Tests - 426 Tests - 1 out of 7.39 (Down) Massachusetts: 3132 Tests - 328 Positive - 1 out of 9.54 (Down) Minnesota: 3038 Tests - 89 Positive - 1 out of 34.13 (Up) Colorado: 2942 Tests - 277 Positive - 1 out of 10.62 (Up) New Mexico: 2797 Tests - 35 Positive - 1 out of 79.91 (Up) North Carolina: 2505 Tests - 97 Positive - 1 out of 25.82 (Up) Michigan: 2447 Tests - 334 Positive - 1 out of 7.32 (First Time Above 1,000 Tests) Wisconsin: 2347 Tests - 155 Positive - 1 out of 15.14 (Up) Texas: 2335 Tests - 143 Positive - 1 out of 16.32 (Up) Florida: 2128 Tests - 432 Positive - 1 out of 4.92 (Up) Maine: 2057 Tests - 53 Positive - 1 out of 38.81(Down) Virginia 1923 Tests - 94 Positive - 1 out of 20.45 (Down) Georgia: 1831 Tests - 287 Positive - 1 out of 6.37 (Up) Pennsylvania: 1793 - 185 Positive - 1 out of 9.69 (Up) Nevada: 1721 Tests - 95 Positive - 1 out of 18.11(First Time Above 1,000 Tests) Utah: 1526 Tests - 78 Positive - 1 out of 19.56 (First Time Above 1,000 Tests) Oregon: 1417 Tests - 88 Positive - 1 out of 16.10 (Up) Testing continues to increase. Despite the increase in testing, most states showed an increase in positive percentage in the tests taken. Michigan debuts with over 1,000 tests for the first time and is immediately placed in Hot Spot territory. New York has the most cases but Florida has the worst percentage which suggests to me that with more testing... Florida could look worse than New York. If you click on the link and check the states below 1,000 Tests, the small sample size percentages in New Jersey look real scary. Louisana, Tennesee, Ohio, Maryland, Deleware, Connecticut, Arizona and Alabama have high percentages but I'm hoping that it's just bad reporting. I'd like to see Stoastic Testing started ASAP. Random tests sent out that people can test at home and report the results. Regardless if they have symptoms or not. We won't know if our social distancing attempts are helping for a couple of weeks (probably longer). Watch Italy for clues since they are a potential preview of things to come. Check out this website from the WHO for trajectory comparison. https://ourworldinda...SWE CHE GBR USA One encouraging trend is the state of Washington. First state to get hit and the percentage of positives trending down. Stay away from each other. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- March 19 Update: Looks like the test kits are arriving because the testing numbers took a big jump in certain states. Tracking to see how more testing changes the percentages daily. Any state with higher positive tests than National Average will be in bold. I am arbitrarily only listing states with over 1,000 tests with no idea if that number is close enough to be worth anything. Take all of this with a grain of salt... I am not an expert. National: 79,766 Tests - 8131 Positive - 1 out of 9.81 (Down) Washington: 17105 Tests - 1187 Positive - 1 out of 14.4 (Down) New York: 14597 Tests - 2382 Positive - 1 out of 6.1 (Down) California: 8592 Tests - 611 Positive - 1 out of 14.6 (Up) Minnesota: 2762 - 77 Positive - 1 out of 35.9 (Up) New Mexico: 2354 - 28 Positive - 1 out of 84.1 (Down) Colorado: 2328 Tests - 216 Positive - 1 out of 10.8 (Down) Massachusetts: 2015 - 256 Positive - 1 out of 7.9 (Up) Illinois: 2052 Tests - 289 Positive - 1 out of 7.1 (Up) Texas: 1907 Tests - 83 Positive - 1 out of 23.0 (Down) North Carolina: 1850 Tests - 63 Positive - 1 out of 29.4 (Over 1000 for the first time) Wisconsin: 1683 Tests - 106 Positive - 1 out of 15.8 (Down) Maine: 1670 Tests - 43 Positive - 1 out of 38 (Up) Florida: 1660 Tests - 328 Positive - 1 out of 5.1 (Up) Oregon: 1554 Tests - 75 Positive - 1 out of 20.7 (Down) Georgia: 1508 Tests - 197 Positive - 1 out of 7.7 (Over 1,000 for the first time) Pennsylvania: 1320 Tests - 133 Positive - 1 out of 9.9 (Over 1,000 for the first time) Virginia: 1278 Tests - 77 Positive - 1 out of 16.6 (Down) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- At 10:25 ET March 18th 5,993 Positive 50597 Negative United States: 1 out of 9.44 Tests are positive States with over 1,000 tests administered HOT SPOTS Washington: 1 out of 13.96 Positive (14129 Tests) California: 1 out of 17.52 Positive (8464 Tests) New York: 1 out of 4.23 Positive (7206 Tests) Minnesota: 1 out of 38.93 Positive (2336 Tests) Massachusetts: 1 out of 8.06 Positive (1759 Tests) New Mexico: 1 out of 74.78 Positive (1720 Tests) Illinois: 1 out of 9.31 Positive (1500 Tests) Maine: 1 out of 41.71 Positive (1335 Tests) Texas: 1 out of 19.81 Positive (1268 Tests) Florida: 1 out of 5.84 Positive (1227 Tests) Colorado: 1 out of 7.60 Positive (1216 Tests) Wisconsin: 1 out of 15.41 Positive (1110 Tests) Oregon: 1 out of 15.89 Positive(1033 Tests) Virginia: 1 out of 15.34 Positive (1028 Tests)

The epidemiologists are all screaming for tests. I'll scream with them.

https://covidtracking.com/data/ Most of the numbers for today are in: So I'm updating March 20 United States: 135,185 Tests - 17,038 Positive - 1 out of 7.93 (Up) New York: 32,427 Tests - 7102 Positive - 1 out of 4.56 (Up) Washington: 20,712 Tests - 1376 Positive - 1 out of 15.05 (Flat - No New Tests Reported) California: 11,487 Tests - 1063 Positive - 1 out of 10.80 (Down) Texas: 5277 Tests - 194 Positive - 1 out of 27.20 (Way Down) Illinois: 4286 Tests - 590 Positive - 1 out of 5.00 (Up) Massachusetts: 4091 Tests - 413 Positive - 1 out of 9.92 (Down) Minnesota: 3856 Tests - 115 Positive - 1 out of 33.53 (Up) Wisconsin: 3661 Tests - 206 Positive - 1 out of 17.77 (Down) North Carolina: 3233 Tests - 137 Positive - 1 out of 23.59 (Up) Colorado: 2952 Tests - 277 Positive - 1 out of 10.65 (Flat - Just 10 new tests) Pennsylvania: 2842 Tests - 268 Positive - 1 out of 10.60 (Down) Michigan: 2618 Tests - 549 Positive - 1 out of 4.76 (Way Up) Florida: 2390 Tests - 520 Positive - 1 out of 4.59 (Up) Georgia: 2386 Tests - 420 Positive - 1 out of 5.68 (Up) Virginia: 2325 Tests - 114 Positive - 1 out of 20.39 (Flat) Maine: 2321 Tests - 57 Positive - 1 out of 40.71 (Down) Utah: 2147 Tests - 112 Positive - 1 out of 19.16 (Up) Oregon: 2117 Tests - 114 Positive - 1 out of 18.57 (Down) Nevada: 2101 Tests - 109 Positive - 1 out of 19.27 (Down) New Jersey: 1154 Tests - 1 out of 1.29 (First Time over 1,000 Tests) Louisiana: 1087 Tests - 479 Positive - 1 out of 2.26 (First time over 1,000 Tests) A couple of heavy weight additions in New Jersey and Louisiana. They both seem too high to believe. Grain of Salt. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Up/Down from the day before) (Bold - Above National Average) March 20: United States: 108,143 Tests - 12,397 Positive - 1 out of 8.72 (Up) New York: 22,284 Tests - 4152 Positive - 1 out of 5.36 (Up) Washington: 20,712 Tests - 1376 Positive - 1 out of 15.05 (Down) California: 9845 Tests - 1058 Positive - 1 out of 9.30 (Up) Illinois: 3151 Tests - 426 Tests - 1 out of 7.39 (Down) Massachusetts: 3132 Tests - 328 Positive - 1 out of 9.54 (Down) Minnesota: 3038 Tests - 89 Positive - 1 out of 34.13 (Up) Colorado: 2942 Tests - 277 Positive - 1 out of 10.62 (Up) New Mexico: 2797 Tests - 35 Positive - 1 out of 79.91 (Up) North Carolina: 2505 Tests - 97 Positive - 1 out of 25.82 (Up) Michigan: 2447 Tests - 334 Positive - 1 out of 7.32 (First Time Above 1,000 Tests) Wisconsin: 2347 Tests - 155 Positive - 1 out of 15.14 (Up) Texas: 2335 Tests - 143 Positive - 1 out of 16.32 (Up) Florida: 2128 Tests - 432 Positive - 1 out of 4.92 (Up) Maine: 2057 Tests - 53 Positive - 1 out of 38.81(Down) Virginia 1923 Tests - 94 Positive - 1 out of 20.45 (Down) Georgia: 1831 Tests - 287 Positive - 1 out of 6.37 (Up) Pennsylvania: 1793 - 185 Positive - 1 out of 9.69 (Up) Nevada: 1721 Tests - 95 Positive - 1 out of 18.11(First Time Above 1,000 Tests) Utah: 1526 Tests - 78 Positive - 1 out of 19.56 (First Time Above 1,000 Tests) Oregon: 1417 Tests - 88 Positive - 1 out of 16.10 (Up) Testing continues to increase. Despite the increase in testing, most states showed an increase in positive percentage in the tests taken. Michigan debuts with over 1,000 tests for the first time and is immediately placed in Hot Spot territory. New York has the most cases but Florida has the worst percentage which suggests to me that with more testing... Florida could look worse than New York. If you click on the link and check the states below 1,000 Tests, the small sample size percentages in New Jersey look real scary. Louisana, Tennesee, Ohio, Maryland, Deleware, Connecticut, Arizona and Alabama have high percentages but I'm hoping that it's just bad reporting. I'd like to see Stoastic Testing started ASAP. Random tests sent out that people can test at home and report the results. Regardless if they have symptoms or not. We won't know if our social distancing attempts are helping for a couple of weeks (probably longer). Watch Italy for clues since they are a potential preview of things to come. Check out this website from the WHO for trajectory comparison. https://ourworldinda...SWE CHE GBR USA One encouraging trend is the state of Washington. First state to get hit and the percentage of positives trending down. Stay away from each other. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- March 19 Update: Looks like the test kits are arriving because the testing numbers took a big jump in certain states. Tracking to see how more testing changes the percentages daily. Any state with higher positive tests than National Average will be in bold. I am arbitrarily only listing states with over 1,000 tests with no idea if that number is close enough to be worth anything. Take all of this with a grain of salt... I am not an expert. National: 79,766 Tests - 8131 Positive - 1 out of 9.81 (Down) Washington: 17105 Tests - 1187 Positive - 1 out of 14.4 (Down) New York: 14597 Tests - 2382 Positive - 1 out of 6.1 (Down) California: 8592 Tests - 611 Positive - 1 out of 14.6 (Up) Minnesota: 2762 - 77 Positive - 1 out of 35.9 (Up) New Mexico: 2354 - 28 Positive - 1 out of 84.1 (Down) Colorado: 2328 Tests - 216 Positive - 1 out of 10.8 (Down) Massachusetts: 2015 - 256 Positive - 1 out of 7.9 (Up) Illinois: 2052 Tests - 289 Positive - 1 out of 7.1 (Up) Texas: 1907 Tests - 83 Positive - 1 out of 23.0 (Down) North Carolina: 1850 Tests - 63 Positive - 1 out of 29.4 (Over 1000 for the first time) Wisconsin: 1683 Tests - 106 Positive - 1 out of 15.8 (Down) Maine: 1670 Tests - 43 Positive - 1 out of 38 (Up) Florida: 1660 Tests - 328 Positive - 1 out of 5.1 (Up) Oregon: 1554 Tests - 75 Positive - 1 out of 20.7 (Down) Georgia: 1508 Tests - 197 Positive - 1 out of 7.7 (Over 1,000 for the first time) Pennsylvania: 1320 Tests - 133 Positive - 1 out of 9.9 (Over 1,000 for the first time) Virginia: 1278 Tests - 77 Positive - 1 out of 16.6 (Down) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- At 10:25 ET March 18th 5,993 Positive 50597 Negative United States: 1 out of 9.44 Tests are positive States with over 1,000 tests administered HOT SPOTS Washington: 1 out of 13.96 Positive (14129 Tests) California: 1 out of 17.52 Positive (8464 Tests) New York: 1 out of 4.23 Positive (7206 Tests) Minnesota: 1 out of 38.93 Positive (2336 Tests) Massachusetts: 1 out of 8.06 Positive (1759 Tests) New Mexico: 1 out of 74.78 Positive (1720 Tests) Illinois: 1 out of 9.31 Positive (1500 Tests) Maine: 1 out of 41.71 Positive (1335 Tests) Texas: 1 out of 19.81 Positive (1268 Tests) Florida: 1 out of 5.84 Positive (1227 Tests) Colorado: 1 out of 7.60 Positive (1216 Tests) Wisconsin: 1 out of 15.41 Positive (1110 Tests) Oregon: 1 out of 15.89 Positive(1033 Tests) Virginia: 1 out of 15.34 Positive (1028 Tests)

Best case scenario. Something that has already gone through clinical trials for something else that can be re-purposed and effective with Covid-19. We got lucky with the accidental discovery of Penicillin. Maybe we can get lucky today.

I completely understand. I don't like the worrying yourself sick part but I believe if everyone made future decisions like they actually have it, regardless if they do. That is the best way to help every single person as we hope to slow the spread. So... in a twisted way. Maybe that fear is a good thing.

My guess is getting it earlier or later would be preferable to getting during the upcoming crunch. However, right now, at this very moment in time. In my opinion, getting it is less important than not spreading it.

Agreed but as the "Reported" stats are clearly increasing in the past couple of days. It shows that they are starting to get out there and we still need a much much much larger sample. We need random sampling of the entire population. I'm not an expert by any stretch of the imagination. However, it stands to reason. More tests being done will require more people to handle the test results. There are long delays in the results in some locations while other places get the results back quickly. If we are low on tests and we are painfully low... I can only assume that we are low on the amount of people who do this sort of work. If testing is increasing and it is... we need more people to handle the influx. We've got to quickly train because I also assume the current infrastructure wasn't set up for this type of volume. We got work to do.

The lack of testing, the slow start in testing, delays in results, just plain ole' issues have made it harder to get ahead of this thing and will deepen and lengthen the economic and health impact. We got out of work people now. Some of them could be quickly trained to read and input test results. Test Test Test.

It stands to reason that the larger cities with larger population will produce the most confirmed cases. However, there are a couple of low population county hot spots. Small sample low population Hot Spots. Eagle County Colorado (Vail) - 51 Cases - Population 51,000 - Largest City - Eagle 6,000 Kershaw County South Carolina - 29 Cases - Population 61,000 - Largest City - Camden 6,000 Summit County Utah - 26 Cases - Population 36,000 - Largest City - Park City 7,000 2 of the 3 are Tourist destinations for Skiing.

https://covidtracking.com/data/ (Up/Down from the day before) (Bold - Above National Average) March 20: United States: 108,143 Tests - 12,397 Positive - 1 out of 8.72 (Up) New York: 22,284 Tests - 4152 Positive - 1 out of 5.36 (Up) Washington: 20,712 Tests - 1376 Positive - 1 out of 15.05 (Down) California: 9845 Tests - 1058 Positive - 1 out of 9.30 (Up) Illinois: 3151 Tests - 426 Tests - 1 out of 7.39 (Down) Massachusetts: 3132 Tests - 328 Positive - 1 out of 9.54 (Down) Minnesota: 3038 Tests - 89 Positive - 1 out of 34.13 (Up) Colorado: 2942 Tests - 277 Positive - 1 out of 10.62 (Up) New Mexico: 2797 Tests - 35 Positive - 1 out of 79.91 (Up) North Carolina: 2505 Tests - 97 Positive - 1 out of 25.82 (Up) Michigan: 2447 Tests - 334 Positive - 1 out of 7.32 (First Time Above 1,000 Tests) Wisconsin: 2347 Tests - 155 Positive - 1 out of 15.14 (Up) Texas: 2335 Tests - 143 Positive - 1 out of 16.32 (Up) Florida: 2128 Tests - 432 Positive - 1 out of 4.92 (Up) Maine: 2057 Tests - 53 Positive - 1 out of 38.81(Down) Virginia 1923 Tests - 94 Positive - 1 out of 20.45 (Down) Georgia: 1831 Tests - 287 Positive - 1 out of 6.37 (Up) Pennsylvania: 1793 - 185 Positive - 1 out of 9.69 (Up) Nevada: 1721 Tests - 95 Positive - 1 out of 18.11(First Time Above 1,000 Tests) Utah: 1526 Tests - 78 Positive - 1 out of 19.56 (First Time Above 1,000 Tests) Oregon: 1417 Tests - 88 Positive - 1 out of 16.10 (Up) Testing continues to increase. Despite the increase in testing, most states showed an increase in positive percentage in the tests taken. Michigan debuts with over 1,000 tests for the first time and is immediately placed in Hot Spot territory. New York has the most cases but Florida has the worst percentage which suggests to me that with more testing... Florida could look worse than New York. If you click on the link and check the states below 1,000 Tests, the small sample size percentages in New Jersey look real scary. Louisana, Tennesee, Ohio, Maryland, Deleware, Connecticut, Arizona and Alabama have high percentages but I'm hoping that it's just bad reporting. I'd like to see Stoastic Testing started ASAP. Random tests sent out that people can test at home and report the results. Regardless if they have symptoms or not. We won't know if our social distancing attempts are helping for a couple of weeks (probably longer). Watch Italy for clues since they are a potential preview of things to come. Check out this website from the WHO for trajectory comparison. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-cases-since-100th-case?country=AUT+BEL+CAN+CZE+DNK+EST+FIN+FRA+DEU+GRC+ISL+IRL+ITA+LUX+MEX+NLD+NOR+PAN+POL+PRT+ROU+RUS+SMR+SVK+SVN+ESP+SWE+CHE+GBR+USA One encouraging trend is the state of Washington. First state to get hit and the percentage of positives trending down. Stay away from each other. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- March 19 Update: Looks like the test kits are arriving because the testing numbers took a big jump in certain states. Tracking to see how more testing changes the percentages daily. Any state with higher positive tests than National Average will be in bold. I am arbitrarily only listing states with over 1,000 tests with no idea if that number is close enough to be worth anything. Take all of this with a grain of salt... I am not an expert. National: 79,766 Tests - 8131 Positive - 1 out of 9.81 (Down) Washington: 17105 Tests - 1187 Positive - 1 out of 14.4 (Down) New York: 14597 Tests - 2382 Positive - 1 out of 6.1 (Down) California: 8592 Tests - 611 Positive - 1 out of 14.6 (Up) Minnesota: 2762 - 77 Positive - 1 out of 35.9 (Up) New Mexico: 2354 - 28 Positive - 1 out of 84.1 (Down) Colorado: 2328 Tests - 216 Positive - 1 out of 10.8 (Down) Massachusetts: 2015 - 256 Positive - 1 out of 7.9 (Up) Illinois: 2052 Tests - 289 Positive - 1 out of 7.1 (Up) Texas: 1907 Tests - 83 Positive - 1 out of 23.0 (Down) North Carolina: 1850 Tests - 63 Positive - 1 out of 29.4 (Over 1000 for the first time) Wisconsin: 1683 Tests - 106 Positive - 1 out of 15.8 (Down) Maine: 1670 Tests - 43 Positive - 1 out of 38 (Up) Florida: 1660 Tests - 328 Positive - 1 out of 5.1 (Up) Oregon: 1554 Tests - 75 Positive - 1 out of 20.7 (Down) Georgia: 1508 Tests - 197 Positive - 1 out of 7.7 (Over 1,000 for the first time) Pennsylvania: 1320 Tests - 133 Positive - 1 out of 9.9 (Over 1,000 for the first time) Virginia: 1278 Tests - 77 Positive - 1 out of 16.6 (Down) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- At 10:25 ET March 18th 5,993 Positive 50597 Negative United States: 1 out of 9.44 Tests are positive States with over 1,000 tests administered HOT SPOTS Washington: 1 out of 13.96 Positive (14129 Tests) California: 1 out of 17.52 Positive (8464 Tests) New York: 1 out of 4.23 Positive (7206 Tests) Minnesota: 1 out of 38.93 Positive (2336 Tests) Massachusetts: 1 out of 8.06 Positive (1759 Tests) New Mexico: 1 out of 74.78 Positive (1720 Tests) Illinois: 1 out of 9.31 Positive (1500 Tests) Maine: 1 out of 41.71 Positive (1335 Tests) Texas: 1 out of 19.81 Positive (1268 Tests) Florida: 1 out of 5.84 Positive (1227 Tests) Colorado: 1 out of 7.60 Positive (1216 Tests) Wisconsin: 1 out of 15.41 Positive (1110 Tests) Oregon: 1 out of 15.89 Positive(1033 Tests) Virginia: 1 out of 15.34 Positive (1028 Tests)

More words from Computational Biologist Trevor Bedford: https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/a-superstar-epidemiologists-plan-to-fight-coronavirus/