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LaBombo

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Everything posted by LaBombo

  1. LaBombo
    For what it's worth, the James projection thinks Worley's ERA should be about a half run better than Diamond's.
  2. LaBombo
    Those are infield hit percentages, meaning balls fielded without error and no out recorded. BABIP on ground balls will be higher. Heck, Mauer's was .285 last year, although I don't know what Revere's was. But, that reminds me of another peanut stat - reaching base on error, where Revere had 8, Aoki had 13. Mauer had 4, Willingham had 5, by comparison. Just another marginal benefit of speed that doesn't even get factored into BAv or OBP, although they are obviously recorded as at-bats. Water over the dam at this point, I guess, but what you said doesn't make sense. 10.8% IS Revere's batting average on ground balls in play. Honest. 295 ground balls(!) times 10.8% equals Ben Revere's infield hit total of 32, not including bunt hits. And I'd wager that nobody in the history of the league has converted ground balls into hits at a .285 clip. Mauer only managed to beat out about 3% of his grounders for infield hits. So again, Revere isn't due for a breakout solely on the basis of a disparity between his speed and his BABIP. He is, however, going to lose a big chunk of his value the very minute that he loses just one ounce of speed, since he's already close to maxing out his potential for getting on base when he hits the ball on the ground. That said, he's a good player, and I wish him well in Philly.
  3. LaBombo
    Even if he converts ground balls into hits next year at the same rate as the 2012 league leader in infield hit rate, Norichika Aoki (13.5%), Revere will only pick up 8 extra hits, which would be an improvement of about 10 points of batting average. Meanwhile, his line drive rate fell to 18.6%, which puts him just outside the 20 lowest rates of the 142 qualifying hitters in 2012. His speed-related hitting is just about maxed out, so if he's going to see a sustainable improvement in obp, it will have to come mostly from more walks or more line drives.
  4. LaBombo
    I like Revere, but he didn't exactly have a prototypical breakout year. His line drive and walk rates both declined slightly from his rookie campaign. 41 combined infield and bunt hits in 2012 is impressive, but if he loses even a tick of speed, his offensive value will take a big hit. Plenty of players take a stride forward in their age 25 season, but he's not trending up at the moment.
  5. LaBombo
    Whoa, what happened to JK? Pretty good match. Best I could find was this guy: http://i.ebayimg.com/t/David-McCarty-Twins-Signed-Autographed-8x10-Photo-/00/$%28KGrHqMOKjUE2zMhJN-WBN%29dn-%28Epw~~_35.JPG Actually, without the uniform, McCarty wouldn't look like him at all, it's just a fun excuse to remember Kelly's Jersey tough guy putdown: "Stanford? Well boola boola boola!" I don't really even know what that means, other than Kelly didn't like him very much, even before it turned out he couldn't hit.
  6. LaBombo
    What Seth said. Having Meyer force the issue by dominating A+ and AA hitters is a problem the Twins would love to have, but it's hard to see them handing Boras the reins a year early to get an extra month or two out of a guy who will need to have most things break right just to get a taste of AAA before the 2013 minor league season ends. Bottom line: If he's good enough to pitch here in 2014, I'll be so happy that the trade (which I liked even though I'm a Span fan) worked out that I can't imagine caring whether he pitches only 4 months instead of all year.
  7. LaBombo
    On what team, the Phillies?? Seeing him referred to as a No. 3 or a "weak No. 2" tells me that some people have absolutely unrealistic expectations about the rotation. The Twins would be lucky to have a pitcher of his caliber as their top guy next year, as would a number of other teams. Yeah. It's probably not just Twins fans that expect too much. Some dude named Jeff Sackmann compiled the results of the 2006 season and found what rotation spots league-wide averaged in ERA. Spot_ #1_ #2 _#3 _#4_ #5 MLB 3.60 4.14 4.58 5.10 6.24 AL 3.70 4.24 4.58 5.09 6.22 NL 3.51 4.04 4.57 5.11 6.26 Marcum posted ERA's of 3.64, 3.54, and 3.70 the past three seasons. So by definition, about half the teams in baseball got less from their 'ace' than the Jays and Brewers did from Marcum. and even if he regresses (age, league switch, etc) to his FIP/xFIP territory, he's still a legit #2 in the AL. I think when people think #3 starter, they tend to think of a guy whose ERA is about 4 or ideally a bit under, but most teams are lucky to get that from their #2 guy. Btw, Sackmann included the injury fill-ins, so the replacement-level guys really drag down the 4th and 5th spots.
  8. LaBombo
    And I like when a poster rips another post and then goes on to agree with it. So it's win/win! Back to sort of on topic, the Twins can sign renowned wildlife boob and frequent Letterman guest Jack Hannahttp://i.i.com.com/cnwk.1d/i/tim//2010/06/09/hannaearlyshow_1_370x278.jpg this offseason for all I care, as long it's only a one year deal. There are better options than Hannahan, but he's from here and Hartmann loves him, so he's practically a Twin already.
  9. LaBombo
    The fact that your claim can't easily be disputed is the most punishing indictment of the Twins I can imagine.
  10. LaBombo
    Fine by me, but he's the kind of guy the Twins have historically valued more than most other teams do. Reputation for good defense, local, and a 'good guy', but not a good hitter. Kind of surprised he's not a Twin already...
  11. LaBombo
    Yes, I was speaking strictly in the sense of a traditional left/right platoon. Gardenhire's desire for everyday lineup coherence in the infield is exceeded only by his desire to play the guys whose defense he feels least likely to give him a coronary on any given day.
  12. LaBombo
    +10. It doesn't cost Ryan anything to send a message to Plouffe that he's still closer to a Danny Valencia than a Gary Gaetti in the eyes of the organization at the moment. He's finally shown signs of living up to the potential they saw when they used a first round pick on him waaaayyyy back in 2004, and Ryan doesn't want it going to his head. On the other hand, it wouldn't be terribly strange to bring in a guy like Hannahan. Like most managers today, Gardy doesn't care much for platooning, especially in the infield. But 250 AB's from JH to spell Plouffe, especially against tough righties, wouldn't be a bad thing. He can also fill in at first and either outfield corner, and can even play second in a pinch. And the Twins have historically loved to bring back local boys in the twilight of their careers, especially in down years.
  13. LaBombo
    Hard to consider any signing in a vacuum while ignoring the team's goal for 2013. If it's just to inch back to respectability while building for 2014 and beyond by adding cheap 1-year FA's, then McCarthy isn't a good fit. He's too expensive and risky for that. But if the goal is to gamble on a guy who could be a very good 3rd starter in '14 and '15, then he may be the kind of guy the Twins have to roll the dice on. McCarthy has been less durable than Scott Baker and is coming off a potentially life-threatening head injury. It seems plausible to expect that McCarthy could sign a three year deal worth around 25-30 million, but back-loaded with incentives and buyouts. The Twins should have at least some interest. It may depend as much (or more) on McCarthy's career and financial goals than it does how much the Twins will pony up. He may be determined to gamble on himself with a one year deal that frees him to follow the big money after a strong 2013. Or he may be determined to play for a contender (like Marcum) and not even consider the Twins.
  14. LaBombo
    What about Joe Saunders and his lower K rate? Poster child for what the Twins' pitching has become.
  15. LaBombo
    That last sentence was what I was thinking, rather than that Blanton is some unfairly persecuted savant whose actual value is consistently and drastically understated by ERA and other conventional stats. Not excited about either Blanton or 2013, but he's at least got a decent shot to exceed either the pitching slurry within our system or some of the expensive time bomb free agents who've already signed.
  16. LaBombo
    Well, yeah. But it's a really low bar. He's put up FIPs in the high 3's and xFIP's in the low 3's the past two seasons, with K rates around 7.5 per nine. It's certainly debatable whether it's worth what he'll cost to have him pitch for a team that appears at the moment to not be planning on contending in 2013. But he's clearly a decent bet to be better than the likely in-house solutions to fill one of the non-Diamond rotation spots.
  17. LaBombo
    haha knowing the Twins it will be the worst class of draft prospect in years. Or they will screw it up like the Timberwolves! TImberwolves comparison...Ouch! I hear ya. But it seems like they're drafting a bit better lately than they did during that dry spell in the previous decade. And at the very least, the days of the talk about 'signability picks' should be in the rear view mirror by now, given the organization's greater financial resources. Of course you could argue that it never should've been an issue in the first place if the billionaires who owned the team were really fans of the game. That's water over the dam, though.
  18. LaBombo
    Look at the bright side. If everything breaks the right way, that lineup might get us the number one pick in the draft...
  19. LaBombo
    Question 1) Because he pitched for an organization whose dreadfully inept GM's four year reign of terror left the team so utterly bankrupt of pitching that the net result of his tenure was indistinguishable from sabotage? Question 2) For the same reason people flock to casinos? Or drink and drive? Did I guess right?
  20. LaBombo
    "Shopping" them? How about leaving them out on the curb with a ratty sofa and cardboard signs on all of them that say "FREE!" ?
  21. LaBombo
    Marquis has been a bad pitcher for years, and he was a bad pitcher for San Diego, about equal to Deduno and worse than Devries. Given the Twins' stadium windfall and the resulting increase in available payroll, it seems entirely reasonable that people are getting tired of hearing about the kind of replacement-level punching bags the Twins are considering for next season.
  22. LaBombo
    Ryan knows they're not going to contend. His short-term goal is to put a more respectable team on the field to help stop the terrible slide in attendance. I'm not sure how Ryan helps achieve that goal by bringing back a guy who was viewed by most fans as an abject failure the past two seasons. In fact, it seems like a bit of a PR blunder to admit they're seriously thinking about.it. Just signals to the public that they've given up on 2013 already and are just looking for warm bodies to fill the holes.
  23. LaBombo
    To save tens of millions of dollars. The Braves could afford an Upton. Not many other teams can.
  24. LaBombo
    And Span's trade value may have gone up with this contract. Upton is the better player, but not by much, and even Span's team option of $9 million in 2015 looks like a bargain. The next two seasons at just under $12 million combined look like a steal, even allowing for the health issues.
  25. LaBombo
    You might want to lighten up on Hendriks a bit. After all, the kid had a whopping three years of full season pro baseball prior to the 2012 season. Three. Freaking. Seasons. Hendriks and DeVries had very similar 2012 seasons. DeVries had slightly better peripherals, they both got killed by the long ball, and they posted nearly identical xFips of 4.75 and 4.72 respectively. The HUGE difference is that Hendriks, who turns 24 in February, is four years younger than DeVries and was more successful in the minors. And there's a reason why Hendriks is on the 40 and Sam 'Slayer of Mascots' Deduno isn't. You just don't last in the major if you're just as likely to walk a batter as strike them out. He may suddenly discover control before his time runs out, but I wouldn't bet on it for a guy who turns 30 next summer. And apparently neither are the Twins, or for that matter, every other team in baseball.
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