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Everything posted by Nash Walker
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One of the Twins' biggest breakouts from 2021, Edouard Julien performed a stellar encore in 2022. Julien hit .300/.441/.490 with 19 doubles, three triple, and 17 homers for Double-A Wichita, putting him on track to debut for the Twins in 2023. Julien looks like a left-handed on-base machine with no discernable defensive home, similar to what the Twins had with Luis Arraez. View full video
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After a down season and a trade in 2021, Simeon Woods Richardson re-established himself as a top-6 prospect thanks to a sterling 2.77 ERA across the upper minors in 2022. Woods Richardson cut his walk rate from 14% (2021) to 8.5% (2022) while throwing the most innings of his professional career. 2023 could be a special one for the 22-year-old right-hander.
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After a down season and a trade in 2021, Simeon Woods Richardson re-established himself as a top-6 prospect thanks to a sterling 2.77 ERA across the upper minors in 2022. Woods Richardson cut his walk rate from 14% (2021) to 8.5% (2022) while throwing the most innings of his professional career. 2023 could be a special one for the 22-year-old right-hander. View full video
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Connor Prielipp was regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in the 2022 class. Unfortunately, an elbow injury and subsequent Tommy John Surgery ended his final season at Alabama before it started. Prielipp is a strong lefty with a nasty slider and frontline rotation stuff. Will he realize his potential starting in 2023?
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Connor Prielipp was regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in the 2022 class. Unfortunately, an elbow injury and subsequent Tommy John Surgery ended his final season at Alabama before it started. Prielipp is a strong lefty with a nasty slider and frontline rotation stuff. Will he realize his potential starting in 2023? View full video
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Austin Martin Is a Bounceback Candidate in 2023
Nash Walker posted a video in Minnesota Twins Videos
It was a rough season overall for Austin Martin, the former top-100 global prospect and No. 5 pick in the 2020 Draft. Martin's numbers dropped across the board but he finished the season strong, including a stint in the Arizona Fall League. The talented Martin is due for a bounceback in 2023. -
It was a rough season overall for Austin Martin, the former top-100 global prospect and No. 5 pick in the 2020 Draft. Martin's numbers dropped across the board but he finished the season strong, including a stint in the Arizona Fall League. The talented Martin is due for a bounceback in 2023. View full video
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Matt Canterino and David Festa are two of the top pitching prospects in the Twins’ system, and both show up here in the 11-15 range. Yasser Mercedes had an incredible stint in the DSL, Matt Wallner looks like a 30-homer bat and Noah Miller’s defense at shortstop is dazzling.
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- matt wallner
- yasser mercedes
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Matt Canterino and David Festa are two of the top pitching prospects in the Twins’ system, and both show up here in the 11-15 range. Yasser Mercedes had an incredible stint in the DSL, Matt Wallner looks like a 30-homer bat and Noah Miller’s defense at shortstop is dazzling. View full video
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- matt wallner
- yasser mercedes
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(and 3 more)
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The Twins’ underrated prospect depth shows up here at the end of our top 20, with a former top-100 prospect, two higher upside international signings, their 2nd round pick from 2022 and a potential bullpen weapon.
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- jordan balazovic
- ronny henriquez
- (and 3 more)
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The Twins’ underrated prospect depth shows up here at the end of our top 20, with a former top-100 prospect, two higher upside international signings, their 2nd round pick from 2022 and a potential bullpen weapon. View full video
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- jordan balazovic
- ronny henriquez
- (and 3 more)
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The long-standing saga is finally over. Was it worth the treacherous, annoying wait? I certainly think so. The Twins have agreed to terms with Carlos Correa in a stunning twist to the craziest free agency story in recent memory. Now onto the baseball: how does Correa impact the 2023 roster? Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports On the surface, Carlos Correa’s return isn’t an addition. He played 136 games for the Twins in 2022, hitting .291/.366/.467 (140 OPS+) while producing 5.4 b-Wins Above Replacement. Correa lead the team in bWAR and OPS (.834), mostly thanks to a scalding September. While “adding” a player of Correa’s ilk is always exciting, many Twins fans may be understandably more skeptical of his impact on the roster. The Twins won only 78 games last year, with Correa mostly healthy; why should we expect more with a similar group in 2023? The Twins collapsed late in the summer, making Correa’s torrid finish a forgotten tale. The fresh memory on many minds is Correa’s inability to hit with runners in scoring position when the Twins needed him all summer. Through July 1st, Correa posted a wRC+ of 85 with runners in scoring position, well below the league average of 106. Naturally, Correa posted a sterling 128 wRC+ with runners in scoring position after July 1st. We’ve learned through study (and this book) that great hitters are great hitters no matter the situation. Correa’s career OPS with runners in scoring position is .818. His career OPS with no men on base? .825. Correa had a tremendous second half in 2022, hitting .304/.380/.486 (149 wRC+) while producing 2.4 f-Wins Above Replacement. Correa was top-10 in the American League in Win Probability Added after the All-Star break. Correa's slower start could be due to a shortened spring training, heightened pressure on a quasi-one-year deal, or simple batted-ball luck. Whatever it was, Correa put it in the rearview after the first half. While it’s understandable to question Correa’s true impact, his .730 OPS with RISP in 2022 is due for positive regression. He should drive in more runs and provide more overall impact at the plate throughout the season. Trust the numbers here, including his highest hard-hit rate since 2017 (44.7%). The concern with his right ankle isn't insignificant. Two teams took the PR hit rather than commit huge money to Correa. Something must be up, right? It's impossible to know for sure. Correa may have a rough time through his 30s... or he may not. In a refreshing change of pace, the Twins are taking the risk. Players of Correa's stature are rarely available to the Twins in free agency. It’s easy to forget the hype surrounding Correa when the Twins signed him last March. We’re honestly talking about a generational shortstop. Through their age-27 seasons, only three shortstops have more bWAR than Correa since the Senators moved to Minnesota: Alex Rodríguez, Robin Yount, and Cal Ripken Jr. Among those shortstops who logged at least 3,500 plate appearances, Correa ranks 3rd in OPS+ behind only A-Rod and Hanley Ramírez. Since 2019, Correa’s 39 Defensive Runs Saved are the most among all shortstops. He’s a unique talent, evidenced by at least two teams offering him over $300 million in contracts this winter. FanGraphs ZiPS projects Correa for 5.6 fWAR in 2023. That’s the highest among Twins and a full 4.2 more than Kyle Farmer. Correa completely changes the outlook of the current roster, especially considering the Twins are much deeper in pitching talent than they were on Opening Day in 2022. The "Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings" from Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs pegged the Twins for 81 wins before the Correa, Christian Vázquez, and Joey Gallo signings. We can reasonably expect that projected win total to rise at least four notches after these moves. As currently constructed, the Twins look like an 85-86 win team. Add a frontline starter via trade, and that number will approach the desired 90. Correa was a key piece as one of the best free agents available. Beyond his impact on the field, the Twins will welcome Correa, the person, back with open arms. Byron Buxton, José Miranda, and countless other team members spoke highly of their new friend and teammate throughout the 2022 season. Correa’s postseason experience and pedigree - things we lauded him for less than a year ago - are needed more than ever. It’s natural to wonder if the Twins are truly getting *better* with the move to retain their star shortstop. Every season and roster is different, and the Twins are much better today than they were yesterday. Continue to acquire great players, and great things tend to happen. Correa is a great player. Excitement is warranted. View full article
- 61 replies
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- carlos correa
- luis arraez
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On the surface, Carlos Correa’s return isn’t an addition. He played 136 games for the Twins in 2022, hitting .291/.366/.467 (140 OPS+) while producing 5.4 b-Wins Above Replacement. Correa lead the team in bWAR and OPS (.834), mostly thanks to a scalding September. While “adding” a player of Correa’s ilk is always exciting, many Twins fans may be understandably more skeptical of his impact on the roster. The Twins won only 78 games last year, with Correa mostly healthy; why should we expect more with a similar group in 2023? The Twins collapsed late in the summer, making Correa’s torrid finish a forgotten tale. The fresh memory on many minds is Correa’s inability to hit with runners in scoring position when the Twins needed him all summer. Through July 1st, Correa posted a wRC+ of 85 with runners in scoring position, well below the league average of 106. Naturally, Correa posted a sterling 128 wRC+ with runners in scoring position after July 1st. We’ve learned through study (and this book) that great hitters are great hitters no matter the situation. Correa’s career OPS with runners in scoring position is .818. His career OPS with no men on base? .825. Correa had a tremendous second half in 2022, hitting .304/.380/.486 (149 wRC+) while producing 2.4 f-Wins Above Replacement. Correa was top-10 in the American League in Win Probability Added after the All-Star break. Correa's slower start could be due to a shortened spring training, heightened pressure on a quasi-one-year deal, or simple batted-ball luck. Whatever it was, Correa put it in the rearview after the first half. While it’s understandable to question Correa’s true impact, his .730 OPS with RISP in 2022 is due for positive regression. He should drive in more runs and provide more overall impact at the plate throughout the season. Trust the numbers here, including his highest hard-hit rate since 2017 (44.7%). The concern with his right ankle isn't insignificant. Two teams took the PR hit rather than commit huge money to Correa. Something must be up, right? It's impossible to know for sure. Correa may have a rough time through his 30s... or he may not. In a refreshing change of pace, the Twins are taking the risk. Players of Correa's stature are rarely available to the Twins in free agency. It’s easy to forget the hype surrounding Correa when the Twins signed him last March. We’re honestly talking about a generational shortstop. Through their age-27 seasons, only three shortstops have more bWAR than Correa since the Senators moved to Minnesota: Alex Rodríguez, Robin Yount, and Cal Ripken Jr. Among those shortstops who logged at least 3,500 plate appearances, Correa ranks 3rd in OPS+ behind only A-Rod and Hanley Ramírez. Since 2019, Correa’s 39 Defensive Runs Saved are the most among all shortstops. He’s a unique talent, evidenced by at least two teams offering him over $300 million in contracts this winter. FanGraphs ZiPS projects Correa for 5.6 fWAR in 2023. That’s the highest among Twins and a full 4.2 more than Kyle Farmer. Correa completely changes the outlook of the current roster, especially considering the Twins are much deeper in pitching talent than they were on Opening Day in 2022. The "Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings" from Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs pegged the Twins for 81 wins before the Correa, Christian Vázquez, and Joey Gallo signings. We can reasonably expect that projected win total to rise at least four notches after these moves. As currently constructed, the Twins look like an 85-86 win team. Add a frontline starter via trade, and that number will approach the desired 90. Correa was a key piece as one of the best free agents available. Beyond his impact on the field, the Twins will welcome Correa, the person, back with open arms. Byron Buxton, José Miranda, and countless other team members spoke highly of their new friend and teammate throughout the 2022 season. Correa’s postseason experience and pedigree - things we lauded him for less than a year ago - are needed more than ever. It’s natural to wonder if the Twins are truly getting *better* with the move to retain their star shortstop. Every season and roster is different, and the Twins are much better today than they were yesterday. Continue to acquire great players, and great things tend to happen. Correa is a great player. Excitement is warranted.
- 61 comments
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- carlos correa
- luis arraez
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The drama never ends with Carlos Correa. It has been reported the Twins are back in the mix yet again for the star shortstop.
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The drama never ends with Carlos Correa. It has been reported the Twins are back in the mix yet again for the star shortstop. View full video
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The Twins traded prominent prospects to improve the club at the 2022 deadline in an effort to win the AL Central. They fell short, Carlos Correa is gone and the future is in doubt. What if the Twins (gasp!) committed to an unacceptable youth movement? Let’s take a look. Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports To go from offering Carlos Correa a 10-year, $285 million contract to a rebuild would be hard to fathom. It’s a really terrible time to break down the team, especially because the Twins haven’t won a postseason game since 2004. Even then, the Twins may decide this just isn’t working. What would it look like if they made that call? Catcher STARTER: Christian Vázquez BACKUP: Ryan Jeffers If the Twins were truly committing to a teardown, they wouldn’t have signed 32-year-old Christian Vázquez to a three-year, $30 million deal. For the sake of the exercise, we’ll say Vázquez is in Minnesota to provide veteran leadership for the Twins’ hopeful catcher of the future in Ryan Jeffers, who is under team control through 2026. This part of the roster would likely go unchanged. First base STARTER: Alex Kirilloff It’s a make or break year for Alex Kirilloff. He’s missed extensive time since 2019 with wrist trouble, leading to a Hail Mary surgery that shut down his 2022 season. Kirilloff isn’t far removed from top-20, franchise-altering prospect status. In this blueprint, the Twins hand him the keys at first base with a runway to cement his place in their future plans. Second base STARTER: Luis Arraez TRADE: Jorge Polanco With Kirilloff’s full-time move to first base, Luis Arraez shifts back to his original home at second. The Twins trade Jorge Polanco, under team control at modest salaries through 2025, for prospects and or young potential building blocks. Polanco and Arraez each have three years remaining on their deals but Polanco is 3-plus years older and therefore less valuable on a potential long-term extension. Shortstop STARTER: Kyle Farmer EVENTUALLY: Royce Lewis As it stands, this is the current plan at shortstop for 2023. The Twins failed to land Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson in free agency, setting up an Opening Day six-hole start for Kyle Farmer. In this scenario, Royce Lewis remains the team’s shortstop of the future, even after ACL surgeries in back-to-back seasons. Third Base STARTER: José Miranda EVENTUALLY: Brooks Lee José Miranda is slated to start at third base following the Gio Urshela trade. It’s unclear whether Miranda can hold up defensively at the hot corner but luckily the Twins have insurance. Brooks Lee, their first-round pick from 2022, projects more as a third baseman than a shortstop. His arrival will come sooner rather than later. Outfield STARTERS: Trevor Larnach (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), Joey Gallo (RF) BACKUP/PLATOON: Nick Gordon, Gilberto Celestino TRADE: Max Kepler Not much changes here other than Max Kepler’s departure in a trade for prospects. A rebuilding team likely wouldn’t sign Joey Gallo for $11 million but it’s not inconceivable. A strong year from Gallo could turn into a qualifying offer and an eventual draft pick for the Twins. Trevor Larnach gets full run in left field with Nick Gordon floating as a utility-man and Gilberto Celestino ready to rock as a backup. Designated Hitter PRIMARY: Matt Wallner Matt Wallner hit .228 with a .709 OPS in a brief 65-plate appearance debut in 2022. He showed off some real raw power (93rd percentile max exit velo) but also a ton of swing-and-miss (39% K-rate). Wallner starts the season on the big league roster, regularly getting time at DH and in the outfield when he’s needed defensively. Rotation STARTERS: Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Josh Winder TRADE: Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray The youth movement would likely show up most here, given the Twins have three veteran starters on expiring contracts. The one they keep is the youngest in Tyler Mahle, hoping he puts together a strong first half to raise his value in trade. The Twins deal Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda for prospects or young potential building blocks, opening the door for Louie Varland and Josh Winder on the Opening Day roster. Bullpen CORE: Jhoan Durán, Jorge López, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran, Evan Sisk, Simeon Woods Richardson (long relief) TRADE: Emilio Pagán The bullpen picture remains mostly in tact, with Emilio Pagán exiting via trade and Jorge Alcala re-joining the group. It’s possible the Twins would shop Jorge López in this scenario but his value isn’t exactly in tip-top shape. Caleb Thielbar would be another trade candidate with his contract expiring after 2024. Projected mid-season lineup (age) 1. Luis Arraez (25) 2B 2. Byron Buxton (29) CF 3. Alex Kirilloff (25) 1B 4. José Miranda (24) 3B 5. Joey Gallo (29) RF 6. Royce Lewis (23) SS 7. Trevor Larnach (25) LF 8. Christian Vázquez (32) C 9. Matt Wallner (25) DH Projected mid-season rotation (age) Tyler Mahle (28) Joe Ryan (26) Bailey Ober (27) Louie Varland (25) Josh Winder (26) TRADED: Jorge Polanco (29), Max Kepler (29), Kenta Maeda (34), Sonny Gray (33), Emilio Pagán (31) This is a mock of what a Twins rebuild may look like for the 2023 team. Drop your thoughts below. View full article
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To go from offering Carlos Correa a 10-year, $285 million contract to a rebuild would be hard to fathom. It’s a really terrible time to break down the team, especially because the Twins haven’t won a postseason game since 2004. Even then, the Twins may decide this just isn’t working. What would it look like if they made that call? Catcher STARTER: Christian Vázquez BACKUP: Ryan Jeffers If the Twins were truly committing to a teardown, they wouldn’t have signed 32-year-old Christian Vázquez to a three-year, $30 million deal. For the sake of the exercise, we’ll say Vázquez is in Minnesota to provide veteran leadership for the Twins’ hopeful catcher of the future in Ryan Jeffers, who is under team control through 2026. This part of the roster would likely go unchanged. First base STARTER: Alex Kirilloff It’s a make or break year for Alex Kirilloff. He’s missed extensive time since 2019 with wrist trouble, leading to a Hail Mary surgery that shut down his 2022 season. Kirilloff isn’t far removed from top-20, franchise-altering prospect status. In this blueprint, the Twins hand him the keys at first base with a runway to cement his place in their future plans. Second base STARTER: Luis Arraez TRADE: Jorge Polanco With Kirilloff’s full-time move to first base, Luis Arraez shifts back to his original home at second. The Twins trade Jorge Polanco, under team control at modest salaries through 2025, for prospects and or young potential building blocks. Polanco and Arraez each have three years remaining on their deals but Polanco is 3-plus years older and therefore less valuable on a potential long-term extension. Shortstop STARTER: Kyle Farmer EVENTUALLY: Royce Lewis As it stands, this is the current plan at shortstop for 2023. The Twins failed to land Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson in free agency, setting up an Opening Day six-hole start for Kyle Farmer. In this scenario, Royce Lewis remains the team’s shortstop of the future, even after ACL surgeries in back-to-back seasons. Third Base STARTER: José Miranda EVENTUALLY: Brooks Lee José Miranda is slated to start at third base following the Gio Urshela trade. It’s unclear whether Miranda can hold up defensively at the hot corner but luckily the Twins have insurance. Brooks Lee, their first-round pick from 2022, projects more as a third baseman than a shortstop. His arrival will come sooner rather than later. Outfield STARTERS: Trevor Larnach (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), Joey Gallo (RF) BACKUP/PLATOON: Nick Gordon, Gilberto Celestino TRADE: Max Kepler Not much changes here other than Max Kepler’s departure in a trade for prospects. A rebuilding team likely wouldn’t sign Joey Gallo for $11 million but it’s not inconceivable. A strong year from Gallo could turn into a qualifying offer and an eventual draft pick for the Twins. Trevor Larnach gets full run in left field with Nick Gordon floating as a utility-man and Gilberto Celestino ready to rock as a backup. Designated Hitter PRIMARY: Matt Wallner Matt Wallner hit .228 with a .709 OPS in a brief 65-plate appearance debut in 2022. He showed off some real raw power (93rd percentile max exit velo) but also a ton of swing-and-miss (39% K-rate). Wallner starts the season on the big league roster, regularly getting time at DH and in the outfield when he’s needed defensively. Rotation STARTERS: Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Josh Winder TRADE: Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray The youth movement would likely show up most here, given the Twins have three veteran starters on expiring contracts. The one they keep is the youngest in Tyler Mahle, hoping he puts together a strong first half to raise his value in trade. The Twins deal Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda for prospects or young potential building blocks, opening the door for Louie Varland and Josh Winder on the Opening Day roster. Bullpen CORE: Jhoan Durán, Jorge López, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran, Evan Sisk, Simeon Woods Richardson (long relief) TRADE: Emilio Pagán The bullpen picture remains mostly in tact, with Emilio Pagán exiting via trade and Jorge Alcala re-joining the group. It’s possible the Twins would shop Jorge López in this scenario but his value isn’t exactly in tip-top shape. Caleb Thielbar would be another trade candidate with his contract expiring after 2024. Projected mid-season lineup (age) 1. Luis Arraez (25) 2B 2. Byron Buxton (29) CF 3. Alex Kirilloff (25) 1B 4. José Miranda (24) 3B 5. Joey Gallo (29) RF 6. Royce Lewis (23) SS 7. Trevor Larnach (25) LF 8. Christian Vázquez (32) C 9. Matt Wallner (25) DH Projected mid-season rotation (age) Tyler Mahle (28) Joe Ryan (26) Bailey Ober (27) Louie Varland (25) Josh Winder (26) TRADED: Jorge Polanco (29), Max Kepler (29), Kenta Maeda (34), Sonny Gray (33), Emilio Pagán (31) This is a mock of what a Twins rebuild may look like for the 2023 team. Drop your thoughts below.
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Carlos Correa, with a penchant for late-night deals, has his third of the last eight months. Correa is now a New York Met after backing out of his deal with the San Francisco Giants due to a concern with his physical. Correa earns $35M less on this contract and it furthers the frustration with the Twins in their pursuit. Let’s break it down!
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Carlos Correa, with a penchant for late-night deals, has his third of the last eight months. Correa is now a New York Met after backing out of his deal with the San Francisco Giants due to a concern with his physical. Correa earns $35M less on this contract and it furthers the frustration with the Twins in their pursuit. Let’s break it down! View full video
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Carlos Correa’s 13-year, $350 million deal with the San Francisco Giants is now in question. Correa was scheduled to appear publicly for the first time as a Giant Tuesday, but the press conference was postponed with no reason given. The AP later reported that there was a medical concern in Correa’s physical. What now?
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Carlos Correa’s 13-year, $350 million deal with the San Francisco Giants is now in question. Correa was scheduled to appear publicly for the first time as a Giant Tuesday, but the press conference was postponed with no reason given. The AP later reported that there was a medical concern in Correa’s physical. What now? View full video

