Nash Walker

Royce Lewis established himself as a fastball destroyer in the first two plus years of his electric young career, turning on velocity to no end while dropping jaws across the upper midwest. In the second half of 2024, Lewis stopped hitting the heater and everything broke down from there. Let's analyze. View full video

After a busy week of additions and a key subtraction, where does the Twins' roster stand and project? Which holes remain? View full video

The Minnesota Twins continued their busy week with a one year signing of 1B/DH Carlos Santana, who Twins fans can surely remember as a destructor of baseballs at Target Field for many years with Cleveland. Santana joins an infield brimming with young talent but also filled with injury questions. View full video

Are the 2024 Minnesota Twins better, worse, or about the same after the trade of Jorge Polanco? To answer this question, we have to analyze each part of the roster individually. Let's dive in. View full video

When you spend $2 million on a free agent, you expect a medium to low level impact such as a 6th inning reliever. That wasn't the case with Donovan Solano, who was crucial for the Minnesota Twins throughout the 2024 season and now enters free agency once again at 36 years old. Should they look to bring him back? View full video

The trade to bring in Michael A. Taylor proved vital for the Minnesota Twins last season. Without Byron Buxton roaming center, MAT filled in and was an outstanding contributor defensively while setting a career high with 21 homers. Now a free agent, it bears wondering whether the Twins should make it a priority to bring him back for 2024. What do you think? Comment below! View full video

When a player dominates over a prolonged period, it's easy to take them for granted. We can't do that with Jhoan Durán, who's been one of baseball's best relievers since his rookie year in 2022. Where does the Twins closer rank among the most elite in the game since then? View full video

Liam Hendriks started his career as a Minnesota Twins starter, pitching to a 6.06 ERA in 30 appearances. Hendriks then became one of the most dominant relievers of this generation with the A's and White Sox and enters free agency again at age 34. Hendriks is rehabbing from Tommy John, but offers the Twins a low risk, high upside opportunity on a two-year deal. View full video

Carlos Correa struggled with double plays and plantar faciitis through the first season of his six year, $200 million extension with the Twins. The previous MVP candidate flipped the script and delivered in October, offering hope and a glimpse of what's to come for the rest of his time with Minnesota. View full video

Renewed TV deal optimism has Twins fans like me hoping the payroll restrictions lift soon. If and when they do, there's no better fit for the Twins than Cody Bellinger. View full video

Renewed payroll hope, an overall lack of clear holes, and sheer talent make Cody Bellinger the runaway best free agent fit for the Twins. Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports Recent reports of Diamond Sports Group’s new deal with Amazon has Twins fans like me hopeful the payroll restraints will lift in the very near future. If they do, there’s no better play on the market than 28-year-old former MVP, Cody Bellinger. The Twins still need to find a way to replace Sonny Gray’s 184 excellent innings, and it’d behoove them to add another reliever, but the most pressing questions reside at first base and in center field. Alex Kirilloff, who I still believe can be a cornerstone player, isn’t a reliable bet for even 100 starts at first base. He’s logged just 192 games in three years, and unfortunately hasn’t yet matched the prospect hype, with a 104 OPS+ and a career fWAR total of 0.5. Almost every report on Byron Buxton is that he’s trending toward being the Opening Day starter in center. Prior to a down offensive season, he hit 70 homers in 279 games from 2021 to 2023 with an OPS that was 36 percent better than league average. A return to elite form isn’t at all out of the question. We’re all hoping that bears out, but the Twins still need a Michael A. Taylor-esque insurance plan, no matter how good Buxton feels come February, March, and April. If the Pohlads give approval for unexpected late spending this winter, I’d set my sights mostly on Bellinger. He hit .307, with the lowest strikeout rate of his career (15.7%); slugged .525 with 29 doubles and 26 homers; drove in 97 runs; and went 20-for-26 in stolen base attempts, on a one-year pillow contract with the Cubs. At 28 years old, he’s won NL Rookie of the Year, an MVP, and two Silver Sluggers. He’d bring even more playoff experience (69 games) to a Twins nucleus that feels close to breaking through in October. Rhys Hoskins is suitable at first, assuredly cheaper, and comparable offensively, but he doesn’t play center field. Bellinger has contributed 13 Outs Above Average in center since 2021. He was also excellent against both righties and lefties in 2023, which should be exceedingly attractive for the Twins. Taylor, who ranks first in OAA among center fielders over the last three seasons, is limited at the plate, and struggled to a .641 OPS with a 34% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers last year. Bellinger isn’t without risk. There’s a reason he and his agent Scott Boras only netted a one-year deal last winter, albeit for $17.5 million. The previously elite Dodger was OK during the 2020 COVID season, horrific in 2021, and somewhere in between in 2022. His fall from prolific young slugger to Dave Roberts’s bench was hard to compute. Injuries, specifically a recurring right shoulder problem, could’ve been the culprit. The dip is the sole reason Bellinger didn't get over $300 million last offseason. This inconsistency rears its head in FanGraphs’s 2024 ZiPS projections, cooked up by Dan Szymborski. The system has Bellinger taking a big step back in the power department (.441 SLG), likely due to the stark difference in his expected and actual numbers in 2023. His .370 wOBA (weighted on base average) was 43 points better than his expected mark based on batted-ball data. That tied him with Adam Duvall as the fifth-“luckiest” hitter among qualifiers last year. Szymborski still projects Bellinger for an above-average offensive season and a respectable 2.7 Wins Above Replacement. One could argue Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell would better fit the Twins’ needs. Starting pitching was why the Twins survived the first half of offensive ineptitude, and Pablo López needs a new sidekick. History tells us what Derek Falvey and Co. are much more likely to do, and we’ve never seen them spend more than $20 million on a starting pitcher in free agency. What we have seen, time and time again, is investment in impact position players. The Twins spent over $235 million to sign and retain Carlos Correa, and another $100 million to extend Buxton. Follow the money to predict the future. Jon Becker at FanGraphs crowdsourced Bellinger’s projected contract for six years and $144 million, the highest among remaining free agents. FanGraphs projects the Twins’ current payroll at $124 million, so a Bellinger addition at $24M per year with no other additions or subtractions would put them at $148 million, still $11 million shy of where they finished 2023. There's always a chance, too, that they still trade a Max Kepler or a Jorge Polanco, thereby coming back down below $140 million even with Bellinger on board. The roster needs someone who can not only play center and first base, but do it at a high level. While I’m less concerned about the Twins' propensity to strike out than some, Bellinger’s batting average and elite contact ability in 2023 has to be appealing. His 20 steals and career 80-percent success rate added to a lineup lacking speed is a box checked. His somewhat moderate price tag, given his track record and age, is another. Bellinger and the Twins are a perfect match. Do you agree? If there is more to spend than expected, how do you want the team to do it? Speak up in the comments, and let's see whether the unexpected involvement of Amazon gets the Twins moving. View full article

The Twins haven’t made an impactful move yet this offseason, but the betting market paints an encouraging picture for the club’s 2024. Let's explore that landscape. Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports These lines are drawn from FanDuel Sportsbook, as of Jan. 15. 1. O/U Win Total: 86.5 wins The Twins finished with 87 victories last year, in a historically bad division. The early total has them hovering around that number again in 2024. In the context of the American League and the Central in particular, though, the Twins are in a pleasant spot. Always a popular bet, the Yankees have their usual bloated total of 93.5, meant to pull in money on both sides of the number. Houston (92.5) and Texas (89.5) rule the west, while Baltimore (87.5) and Toronto (86.5) jockey with New York in the east. Tampa Bay (84.5) lurks as a constant threat. These lines are extremely tepid… and then there’s the vaunted central. Detroit (78.5) and Cleveland (77.5) are, by the odds, expected to finish below .500. Due in no small part to the ineptitude of much of this division, the AL flat-out lacks the juggernauts we see in the National League. Both the Dodgers (104.5) and Atlanta (100.5) open extremely high, while Philadelphia (90.5) looks to build on back-to-back final four appearances. There is no total higher than 93.5 in the AL. Barring a frenzy of activity for a certain team or two, the AL side of the bracket should be wide-open again in 2024. 2. Twins to win the American League: +850 (T-4th) This free range nature of the league is evidenced in the odds. The Yankees, who missed the playoffs last year, are the favorites (+410), followed by the Astros (+430), and defending champion Rangers (+480). The upstart Orioles and Twins are tied for the fourth-best marks (+850). The difference between the Yankees and Twins is just +440, while the difference between the favored Dodgers (+180) and fourth-place Cardinals (+1500) in the NL is +1320. That is a monster discrepancy showing the contrast in leagues, but also that the Dodgers are sure to pull bettors’ money after signing Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. There’s only one way to win the pennant and/or the World Series: make the playoffs! This is partly why the Twins have optimistic odds to represent the AL in the Fall Classic. They have the best chance to win their division (-130), compared to the Yankees (+130) and Astros (+130), and have the biggest gap in win total between the first- and second-place teams in the division (eight). Playing in the AL Central is a great luxury and there's zero notion, by the odds or otherwise, that the competition will be much better this season. 3. Pablo López to win the American League Cy Young Award: +1100 (4th) Pablo López carried a 4.24 ERA into mid-July in his first season with the Twins, adding fuel to the fire of fans who remained irate that Luis Arraez was hitting .400 for the Marlins. As usual, the numbers under the hood won the day. López’s ERA was almost a full run higher than his FIP (3.33) through his first 19 starts for Minnesota. From Jul. 20 on, he posted the exact same FIP, but his ERA fell to 2.79 over his final 13 starts of the regular season. The beauty of numbers! He made his first All-Star Game, stayed healthy for 194 innings, finished second in the AL in strikeouts (234), and lowered his career Postseason ERA to 1.53 with one good start against Toronto and a dazzling one wherein he struck out seven over seven scoreless innings in a must-win Game 2 of the ALDS in Houston. López will still only be 28 years old when Opening Day arrives. Only Gerrit Cole (+500), Kevin Gausman (+650), and Framber Valdez (+750) have better odds to take home the AL Cy Young Award in 2024. What do you think of these very early odds for the Twins in 2024? Does it make you more or less hopeful? Anxious? Angry about the lack of moves? Let us know in the comments! View full article