Cooper Carlson

The key Twins who could be moving on to a new team for 2020 are listed here. (* = option or ARB eligible) C Jason Castro 1B C.J. Cron* 2B Jonathan Schoop SP Kyle Gibson SP Michael Pineda SP Martin Perez* SP Jake Odorizzi RP Sergio Romo Nelson Cruz was originally on this list, but as expected, the Twins have picked up his option for 2020. https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1181943343858831360?s=20 C Jason Castro Castro began the season as the starting catcher, but Mitch Garver took Minnesota by storm with one of the Twins best hitting seasons as a catcher. That mixed with Castro’s struggles in the second half (.196/.333/.299) make it unlikely that he will return. He can probably find a starting job somewhere in free agency as a left- handed hitting defensive catcher. The Twins could also bring him back on a one-year deal if he does decide to stay and that wouldn't hurt. 1B C.J. Cron Cron will still be under control next year, but it comes down to if the Twins want to pay for his final season or let him go to a new team like the Rays did last season. He suffered a thumb injury this past season that altered his production a lot. He had a .700 OPS in the second half and a .685 OPS vs RHP on the season. He plays a decent first base and crushes left-handers. With Alex Kirilloff on the horizon, I think Cron comes back for 2020 but could end up in a platoon role at some point. This could also depend on the Twins plan for Sano to either stay at 3B or move to 1B in the future. 2B Jonathan Schoop The emergence of Luis Arraez along with the drop off from Schoop made it fairly clear who the starting second baseman will be next season. The Twins will likely ride with Arraez on Opening Day next season, and Schoop will definitely be able to find a starting job somewhere else in 2020. He was a solid addition and the Twins probably got what was expected from him. SP Kyle Gibson Moving on to pitching, Gibson is one of the longest-tenured Twins after seven seasons that started off rough, but ultimately ended well for him to land a nice deal next season. He had a 3.72 ERA from the 2017 trade deadline until now even with some unfortunate health concerns. He will probably get a multi-year deal with someone other than the Minnesota Twins and all of you who hate Kyle will be extremely happy. SP Michael Pineda Despite having his 2019 success stained by his suspension for a possible PED masking agent, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to bring Pineda back for next season. His 3.04 second half ERA, as he basically carried the rotation, was extremely impressive so he could be back. The Twins will likely bring two starters from this season back, and Pineda has a good chance to be one of them. SP Jake Odorizzi The Twins acquired Odorizzi before the 2018 season for AA infielder Jermaine Palacios who had a .192 AVG this past season. Odorizzi has produced 6.9 fWAR over those two seasons and was a 2019 All-Star. The Twins will likely send a qualifying offer around $18 million and if a team doesn’t want to lose a draft pick for him then I think Odo could be back. He could also come back on the QO because he can't be offered the QO two years in a row so he may come back to build his free agency stock for 2021. SP Martin Perez With a $7.5 million team option for next season, I don’t expect to see Perez back for the 2020 season. Maybe I can get behind seeing him as a relief pitcher, but the Twins should definitely be moving on from him in the rotation. From June to October he allowed a 5.93 ERA and a .831 OPS so I would hope the Martin Perez experiment has come to an end. RP Sergio Romo I challenge you to find one Twins fan who does not love Sergio Romo. You can’t, so don’t even try. The 36-year-old reliever would be a valuable asset who I believe will be back for 2020. His veteran presence mixed with his playoff/World Series experience and his electric energy on and off the field are all tools that would fit right in on this young team. Plus he is also an effective late inning reliever so that’s a plus. Alright, now that I have finished going through all the players, here are my predictions: Returning for 2020: Cron, Pineda, Odorizzi, Romo Heading to a new team: Castro, Schoop, Gibson, Perez As the off-season progresses, each one of these players will be monitored closely by everyone here at Twins Daily, so follow us on Twitter and be looking out for more in- depth articles about each player. Leave a comment here saying who you would like to see come back for 2020.

Link to podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1PEBGGuLdT1xiSzpQA7Jgc Usually I would provide timestamps, but this episode really never covers more than four things. Game 1, game 2, games 3/4/5, and fan questions. It was definitely a lengthy discussion on each one so go check it out. Leave a comment if you have any questions or if you just want to discuss something we said! https://open.spotify.com/episode/1PEBGGuLdT1xiSzpQA7Jgc

Game One The good: Jake Odorizzi has simply been the Twins best starting pitcher since the beginning of August. If you want the hot hand going in to pitch game one without considering other statistics like his stats in New York, then Jake is probably your guy. Here is each starter since August. Jake Odorizzi (50.1 IP) 3.04 ERA 2.16 FIP 4.06 K/BB Jose Berrios (58.2 IP) 5.83 ERA 4.44 FIP 2.95 K/BB Randy Dobnak (19.1 IP) 1.86 ERA 2.80 FIP 3.20 K/BB Martin Perez (54.1 IP) 6.63 ERA 5.61 FIP 1.81 K/BB Odorizzi has also accumulated 2.1 WAR since the start of August and that is good for sixth in baseball during that time period. He has definitely been the Twins best starter of late and maybe that will get him the game one start. The bad: Over his career (2012-2019), Jake Odorizzi has not been good in Yankee Stadium. In 46.2 innings in New York, Odorizzi has a 5.40 ERA, 5.82 FIP, and a 2.3 HR/9. The worst HR/9 from anyone in baseball this season is 1.9 from Matthew Boyd so a 0.4 jump from Odorizzi in New York is definitely not good. Plus you may not have noticed but the Yankees hit the second most home runs of all time this season so the matchup with Odorizzi isn’t exactly appealing for the Twins. Game Two The good: There isn’t much reasoning to starting him in game two, but at least this would mean you get your top two pitchers in the first two games despite the stadium statistics. To counter the statistics on the road or at home against the Yankees, he actually reversed the curve this season. When he faced the Yankees at home this year he went four innings, giving up nine hits and 10 earned runs and when he pitched in New York he went six shutout innings. Maybe he exorcised some New York City demons this year, and deserves a start there. The bad: If the Twins plan on letting him get a start in one of the first two games, it should be in game one so he can at least pitch again in game five if need be. For me personally, if he isn’t going to be the game one pitcher and the Twins want to go with Jose Berrios, then push Odorizzi to game three at home. It may all depend on the results of game one, but I doubt that is how Baldelli will set up his rotation. Let Dobnak take game two. Game Three The good: Odorizzi has been slightly better at home this season with a 3.42 ERA compared to a 3.62 road ERA. Also, when he has faced the Yankees away from New York he has 52.2 IP, a 4.10 ERA, 4.23 FIP, and 1.4 HR/9 in his career which is a full home run lower than when he is in New York (stupid right field porch). Jake Odorizzi is a fly ball pitcher who allowed the sixth most fly balls (44.3%) in baseball this season so Target Field suits him better than the little league stadium in New York. The bad: If you wait until game three to pitch Odorizzi, then you will definitely only get him for one game in the series and you risk being down 2-0 in the series because you waited on pitching one of your better pitchers. Personally I would take that risk and wait for game three where you can maximize his potential for a good game. Hoping for Berrios or Dobnak to pitch well enough to take a game in New York shouldn’t be too much to ask. What do you think? What should the rotation look like? Leave a comment below and discuss.

Box Score Perez: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 62% strikes (63 of 102 pitches) Bullpen: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 2 K Home Runs: Cron (25), Cave (8), Castro (13) Multi-Hit Games: Cave (2-for-4) Bottom 3 WPA: Brusdar Graterol (-.358), Lewis Thorpe (-.340), Jonathan Schoop (-.117) Ehire Adrianza (manager) knows how to make a home run lineup. Rookie manager Ehire Adrianza put together the final lineup of the regular season and they got off to a hot start. The game started with the Twins trailing New York by one in the home run race, but the Twins had something to say about that. The first inning had a pulled home run from C.J. Cron at 115.6 MPH (22nd hardest hit ball in the majors) and then Cave hit an opposite field home run to give the Twins a 3-0 lead. Martin Perez shows some encouraging signs for the playoffs. The playoffs begin on Friday and I think Perez should make the team (don’t ask @Matthew_bTwins on Twitter if Perez should make it). He is excellent against left handed hitters (.233/.292/.301) and the playoffs will be a good time for him to come in and get a few lefties out. He did not have that bad of a start today, going nearly six innings and allowing three runs. Kyle Gibson came on in relief in the middle of an inning thanks to a smart pitching change from rookie manager Arraez. He came in and struck out the lone batter he faced in what was his final audition for a playoff spot. He and Martin Perez will be two of the most interesting decisions made this week. Kohl Stewart took over in the seventh inning. He will not make the playoff roster. Despite that, he pitched an excellent seventh inning that took a total of four pitches to finish off with a 4-3 lead. Royals take the lead and win in the final innings In a game loaded with playoff auditions, Lewis Thorpe did not have an excellent outing. The eighth inning started with a leadoff triple from Hunter Dozier which was followed by an RBI double from Ryan O’Hearn. Thorpe would go on to strike out the next hitter but was then pulled for Fernando Romero. It started to seem like Adrianza’s job was on the line unless he could pull out a win. Luckily for Ehire, Fernando Romero got the next two guys to keep the game tied but the managerial job definitely wasn’t safe at this point. In the bottom of the ninth inning, Brusdar Graterol gave up a double and a single which eventually led to a game-ending walk-off sacrifice fly to cap off the 2019 regular season. I’m hearing rumors that Adrianza is being removed as manager The home run record belongs to the Minnesota Twins The Twins were able to barely pull out the home run title in the final game, hitting 307 total bombas while the Yankees finished with 306. Who would have thought Jason Castro would be the guy to set the record? That means Garver (catcher) broke the original record and now Castro (also catcher) broke the final record. Postgame With Baldelli https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1178436363315601408 Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

The postseason roster for the Twins will likely be carrying twelve or thirteen pitchers, so Kyle Gibson will have a good shot to make it. There are eight locks to make it in (Rogers, Romo, Duffey, Littell, May, Berrios, Odorizzi, Dobnak). Stashak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Perez, Graterol and of course Gibson are all hoping to make it in. One or two of those guys will not be on the roster. There are a few different roles the Twins could use Gibson for in the playoffs, including traditional starting pitcher, opener, or bullpen arm. I’ll be exploring each one and attempting to point out which one would best suit him to help make sure the Twins are not going home any time soon. Starting pitcher This role seems unlikely with the Twins having success in games with an opener/bullpen games especially recently. It also looks like the Twins will enter the playoffs with a Jose Berrios, Randy Dobnak, Jake Odorizzi and a bullpen-game type of rotation and that seems to maximize their potential to move on. Kyle Gibson does not appear to be going into October as a starting pitcher, especially with his bullpen roles lately and his struggles in the second half. Since the All-Star break, Kyle Gibson has a 6.05 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and .852 OPS when he starts a game with more than a full MPH drop in fastball velocity down to 92.8 MPH. He just isn’t healthy enough to get you five quality innings. Opener or primary pitcher This is where I would expect the Twins to be able to maximize the outcome for Gibson in the playoffs. It looks like there will be at least one game per series where the Twins have to go with a bullpen game and Kyle Gibson might be the ideal guy to start that game. Let him go out and get through the order one time before you go to your next pitcher. You have the opportunity to pull him as soon as he starts to run into trouble and not have to think twice about it. There are some stats to back up the idea of letting Gibson start a game for just a couple innings. He has seen success when pitching the first time through the order with a .647 OPS in 2018 and a .698 this season. It gets ugly after that, but it won’t matter what he does the second time through because he shouldn’t see that in October. Relief pitcher The role the Twins have been exploring recently is having Gibson come out of the bullpen in the sixth/seventh inning and let him get as many outs as he can. The results have been a mix of success with some discouraging signs. In two relief appearances against Cleveland and Detroit, he has gone three innings while giving up six hits and three runs. The upside is he hasn’t allowed solid contact and he struck out four in his second appearance. On paper, Kyle Gibson to the bullpen would look good with his quality sinker/slider combo and the ability to hit 96 MPH on the fastball, but it is still a huge adjustment for someone who has spent his entire career in the rotation to switch over to the bullpen in the final weeks of a playoff race. He is definitely willing to do whatever it takes. According to an article at MLB.com, Gibson approached manager Rocco Baldelli and told him “Listen, I haven’t played here for 6 1/2 years to get this close to winning some playoff games to cause a fuss based on when I pitch and where I pitch and stuff like that.” He will likely have to beat out two of the guys from a list of Cody Stashak, Brusdar Graterol, Devin Smeltzer, Martin Perez, and Lewis Thorpe so that is certainly something to watch in the final four games. He will likely have two more appearances out of the bullpen before the season ends. Do you think he makes it? If he does, how do you want to see him be utilized?

Box Score Perez: 2.1 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 73% strikes (38 of 52 pitches) Bullpen: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 14 K Home Runs: Cruz (40), Sano (33, 34) Multi-Hit Games: Polanco (2-for-4), Cruz (2-for-3), Rosario (3-for-4), Gonzalez (2-for-4), Sano (2-for-4) Top 3 WPA: Miguel Sano (0.25), Eddie Rosario (0.24), Nelson Cruz (0.14) Bottom 3 WPA: Martin Perez (-0.26), Mitch Garver (-0.09), Jason Castro (-0.03) Both starting pitchers have abysmal starts. Martin Perez vs Jorge Lopez was never advertised as a pitching duel and somehow it was still about as disappointing as it could have possibly been. The Twins scored six runs (touchdown) in the first inning but couldn’t get the seventh run across (something Vikings fans know all about). Three straight hits from Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz and Eddie Rosario drove in the first run, then a Marwin Gonzalez RBI single drove in another to bring Miguel Sano to the plate. He crushed a ball 133.8 MPH to left field and the Twins were up 5-0. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1175845330329489409?s=20 The Twins would go on to score one more thanks to a Jake Cave RBI single, and Martin Perez was given an early 6-0 lead to work with. It did not go well. He gave up two runs in the next inning from a Nick Dini home run but things really got messy in the third. Four hits in the next five batters from Lopez, Soler, Dozier, and Cuthbert cut the lead to 6-5 and Perez was pulled for Zack Littell who came in and shut the door. Twins bullpen shuts the door as the offense slowly pads the lead Luckily for Martin Perez, the Twins have an elite bullpen and a historic offense to pick up the slack. Zack Littell came in for 1 1/3 innings, followed by another great inning where Tyler Duffey struck out the side. May and Stashak each covered an inning after that and both once again looked good. Not surprisingly, Tyler Duffey ranks seventh in AL swinging strike percentage since the All-Star break and Stashak also is in the top ten at number eight. The offense didn’t stop after their six-run first inning, erupting for double digits in this one. Miguel Sano hit his second bomb of the night in the third inning. Since the All-Star break, Miguel Sano has the third most home runs (20), trailing only Jorge Soler (22) and teammate Nelson Cruz (23). Nelson Cruz actually added to his lead in that category in the fourth inning when he hit his 40th home run of the season! It’s not easy to out-homer your age when you are 39 but he did it nonetheless. He also joined just 57 previous players by hitting his 400th home run in his career. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1175871469580095489?s=20 The Twins continued to add on with two runs in the sixth and two runs in the seventh inning. RBIs from Eddie Rosario, Marwin Gonzalez came in both of those two innings. Rosario had two RBI doubles and Marwin had an RBI single and a bases- loaded walk. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1175879329970102273?s=20 Graterol and Romo close it out to cut the magic number to three games. Brusdar Graterol came in for the eighth inning and continued to audition for a playoff role by striking out the side. He actually threw more sliders (7) than fastballs (3) this outing which is something we have not seen from him. If he is throwing 100 MPH heat with a working slider then nobody is hitting him. Fernando Romero came in for the ninth but was lifted after issuing three walks in a six-run game. He was replaced by Sergio Romo who was able to finish the game after walking in two runs. The Royals brought the tying run to the plate with like 34 walks in the final inning, but the Twins have cut the magic number to three! Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

Box Score Dobnak: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 61% strikes (45 of 74 pitches) Bullpen: 2.9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K Home Runs: None Multi-Hit Games: None Top 3 WPA: Randy Dobnak (0.25), Trevor May (0.17), Marwin Gonzalez (0.13) Bottom 3 WPA: Eddie Rosario (-0.11), Devin Smeltzerr (-0.07), Jonathan Schoop (-0.05) The legend of Randy Dobnak continues. Randy Dobnak has the greatest mustache of all time and also is the greatest Twins pitcher of all time. That was a slight exaggeration, but you get the picture. He continued his great rookie campaign with 5 1/3 great innings allowing only three hits and one run. Even he would have never predicted to be in the majors this season as two years ago he scheduled his wedding for the upcoming Sept. 28. Would it be weird to get married in the clubhouse or on the mound? The only run given up was actually off a pitch from Cody Stashak so I’m sure Randy is eternally angry with him. Besides that hit, Stashak was dominant once again, striking out the next two batters he faced. That makes 21 strikeouts and just one walk so far in his young career. When he first came up, he said he was just here to throw strikes and he seems to be doing that. Twins offense scores early, waits five innings and scores again The bats got off to a quick start tonight with a Mitch Garver walk and a Polanco double. Nelson Cruz followed with a sacrifice fly that Dick Bremer probably convinced you was a home run. Then the most unlikely event possible occurred when Miguel Sano hit an RBI triple to the right center gap. Yes, I said triple. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1175205161133727744?s=20 After nothing really got going from innings two through five, the Twins got it going again in the sixth with a Polanco walk, a Sano walk, and then a Marwin Gonzalez RBI double that let Miguel Sano once again show off his insane speed. Who needs Buxton when Sano is running like this? https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1175233968473399301 Royals put up a fight but ultimately they achieve their 99th loss. Devin Smeltzer had a nice and clean seventh inning but he and Brusdar Graterol ran into some bad luck in the eighth with batters reaching on balls with an expected batting average of .170, .140, .400 and .200 so the Royals scrappy approach finally found some luck. Brusdar and his bazooka would leave the eighth inning with a 4-3 lead. Trevor May came in for the save and struck the first batter out on three pitches. Then he struck out Whit Merrifield looking. He capped off the save with....another strikeout! All three of the strikeouts came on fastballs and hitters have just a .158 BA against his fastball to go with a 32% whiff rate. It’s his best pitch and he throws it 62% of the time. Trevor May also has a 1.62 ERA since the start of August. Elite. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1175246368161460224?s=20 Twins magic number drops to five and lead in the central stays at four. With today’s win the Twins have dropped their magic number to five games. Fangraphs has the Twins at a 99% chance to win the division. I know a lot of you are taking that 1% but just so we are all clear, the Twins will win the AL Central. As Trevor May would say, go Twins. Postgame With Baldelli https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1175256273995976704 Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.