LilMauer

The 6’ 7” beast Michael Pineda took the mound the other day in Fort Myers and fired off 2 scoreless innings to go with his 2 previous scoreless innings, giving him an easy to calculate ERA of 0.00 so far in spring training. Pineda last pitched in the majors for the Yankees but you might have also recognized him by his nicknames “Big Mike” or “Large Mikeal” or “Why is That Mountain Moving?” When he was signed in the offseason following the 2017 season, it was with the understanding that his value would mostly be in the 2019 season and he would most likely not pitch in 2018 for the Twins as he continued to rehab from Tommy John surgery. His 2 year $10 million deal essentially works as a 1-year deal and set the blueprint for Garrett Richards to sign a similar deal with the Padres this last offseason. Although, Pineda might have had better offers from Rick Spielman to start at guard for the Vikings for the upcoming season.
 
Pineda could prove to be an important bridge in an uncertain Twins starting rotation. While most teams would be happy with a 1-2 punch of Berrios and Gibson to lead the rotation, the names after them aren’t quite as exciting. Odorizzi is fine but should ideally be your 4th starter and the number of candidates for the 5th spot is as long as Santa’s nice/naughty list but has more naughtys than I care for. So getting 160-170 quality innings from Pineda could prove key to leading a strong Twins team in contending for the AL Central title against the Indians. But what does history have to say about starting pitchers who have had such an extended absence due to injury? Pineda’s last major league outing was on July 5th in 2017 which is a good 20 months ago, is it realistic to assume that he can come back and be the normal Pineda in 2019?
 
I looked through the long list of recent MLB starting pitchers who underwent TJ surgery between 2011 and 2017. I cut it off at 2017 because those players have not had their full season of performance yet following their surgery. Then I found the guys who hadn’t played in MLB in over 15 months after their surgery to get a sample size of guys more similar to Pineda. And finally, I only included pitchers who started the season on the major league squad so that they would have a full season of work on their plate as their first taste of the majors after surgery like Pineda and so that their innings totals wouldn’t be skewed. The list of players goes as follows:
 
Bronson Arroyo, Zack Wheeler, A.J. Griffin, Robbie Erlin, Lance Lynn, Matt Harvey, John Lackey
 
 
An interesting assortment of names, sure, but these are the most similar comps to Pineda that have come about in recent history as far as time off goes. Here they are broken down by innings totals in their first full year back from injury:
 
 
60-80 innings: Bronson Arroyo
80-100 innings: Zack Wheeler
100-120 innings: A.J. Griffin, Robbie Erlin
180-200 innings: Lance Lynn, Matt Harvey, John Lackey
 
 
Well, that’s certainly something. Arroyo was old and bad at this time so take that with what you will. Wheeler was seemingly in witness protection for a few years there as he was suffering from Metsitits before breaking out just this past year. Griffin missed some time due to injury in his first year back which ultimately hampered his innings total but that could very well be a problem for Pineda as well this upcoming year. Lance Lynn, Matt Harvey, and John Lackey all had seemingly normal years immediately following their extended recovery, but Harvey also presents himself as a cautionary tale of why innings limits exist for players recently removed from surgery. He went over his innings limit in 2015 and has not been the same pitcher since.
 
Personally, I find this data to actually be rather optimistic. While no pitcher was within that 160-170 innings total that I mentioned before, a few pitchers were able to come back and have normal years even after an extended break due to recovery. While I don’t want to go as far as thanking Lance Lynn for what he did, he is among those who represent a ray of hope that Pineda can be consistently relied upon in 2019.
 
Now, you might have noticed that I did not mention Robbie Erlin yet. Erlin worked this last year as a swingman for the Padres, or the Giants, be honest, you don’t know whether or not Robbie Erlin actually exists much less the team he plays for. But Fangraphs tells me that there allegedly was a player under the pseudonym “Robbie Erlin” for the Friars last year who got his innings out of the pen and as a starter, and I find that very interesting. The Padres most likely observed the Harvey fiasco and decided it was best not to follow that same path so they artificially reduced Erlin's innings totals by limiting his chances at getting a large number of outs.
 
Why do I find that interesting? The crafty Twins have recently been rather vague about their plans for getting outs in the 2019 season. Instead of referring to Fernando Romero as a reliever, they said that they will transition him to get him ready for “shorter stints”. Instead of saying that Adalberto Mejia is a starter, they said that he will be stretched out for “extended outings”. While GM talk is nothing new, the new wave of baseball strategy has been focused on getting the most outs you can in the most efficient way possible. Hell, Craig Counsell in his infinite wisdom just refers to his pitchers now as “out-getters”. You can say that baseball is getting more progressive in their old and archaic categorizing of pitchers, but it seems to me that teams are catching on to the most effective ways to get outs in today’s game.
 
Much like with the Padres and Erlin, I have to assume the Twins are also very concerned with Pineda’s innings limit. No specific number has become public, but there has to be one. And possibly as a way to limit those innings, we may see the Twins try a bevy of things for Pineda. Maybe they use an opener for him, maybe he is the opener for someone, maybe he occasionally works in long relief, maybe he closes some games! I absolutely would not put it past the Twins to try any number of these strategies to avoid a Matt Harvey situation in the future. Although that also begs the question, do they care? Is Pineda just here as a placeholder for another guy to come in in 2020? While it may be morally wrong, how much would the Twins care about ruining the arm of a guy they have no intention of keeping long term? As the season plays out, we shall see the answers to these questions, but keep in mind that it is realistic for Pineda to fire off a full season of work as a starter in 2019.

After standing in a line of about 20 people for a few minutes, a couple of guys finally got the autograph they wanted during the Cedar Rapids Kernels regular Sunday post-game autograph session. They had secured the autograph of Royce Lewis, the Minnesota Twins first round pick in the 2017 MLB amateur draft and the first pick overall.
 
They stood for a moment and looked out at the area of right field where Lewis' team mates were spread out, some standing by themselves and some in groups of two or three players, all signing autographs for a handful of fans that had gathered around them. One of the guys asked the other, "Where's the other first rounder?"
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Kirilloff0504a2-600x401.jpg
Alex Kirilloff (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
That's right, the Kernels don’t have a first round pick on the field this season – they are in the enviable and rare position of having TWO of the Twins’ recent first round picks and both have been beating up on Midwest League pitchers through the first several weeks of the season.
 
Lewis has been everything you'd hope for as a Twins fan. He has put up a.373 batting average and .849 OPS in 83 at-bats through Tuesday's game at Dayton., He carries a six-game hitting streak into Wednesday’s game. He has also hit safely in 16 of his 20 games.
 
That’s the kind of start that has a lot of people wondering how soon the first overall pick in the 2017 draft will be promoted to Class High-A Fort Myers.
 
Alex Kirilloff, the "other" first rounder the autograph hounds were looking for, was selected by the Twins in the first round (15th overall) of the 2016 draft and, while Lewis has rightfully been getting a lot of publicity, Kirilloff has also been making a strong case that his time in Cedar Rapids should not be an extended stay, either.
 
Kirilloff’s OPS of .851 is almost identical to that of Lewis, but they’ve taken different paths to establishing that number.
 
OPS is the sum of two other statistics, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and Lewis’ .OPS is composed of nearly equal on-base and slugging percentages. Kirilloff, on the other hand, is reaching base at a .327 clip, but his slugging percentage is a robust .524.
 
His batting average has climbed to within shouting distance of .300, and over half of his hits this season have been of the extra-base variety. Kirilloff has 12 doubles (second most in the Midwest League) and four home runs among his 30 hits. He is also taking a nine-game hitting streak into Wednesday night’s game..
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Alex Kirilloff (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
Having first round picks on the field is nothing new for the Kernels.
 
Since they began their affiliation with the Twins in the 2013 season, fans in Cedar Rapids have watched outfielder Byron Buxton (in 2013) and shortstop Nick Gordon (in 2015), as well as pitcher Kohl Stewart (in 2014). Of course, Lewis suited up for the Kernels for the final couple of weeks of the 2017 season, as well.
 
Buxton, Gordon and Lewis, as everyday position players, generated a lot of buzz at the ballpark, as befits a first-round pick, and Lewis continues to see a lengthy line of autograph seekers during the Kernels’ Sunday afternoon autograph sessions.
 
Any other year, you know Kirilloff would be getting that focus from fans and media.
 
But this is no ordinary year in Cedar Rapids.
 
Kirilloff bats third in a lineup that not only includes Lewis and himself, the two first round picks, but also typically includes a second-rounder (C Ben Rortvedt), two Compensation “B” round picks (IF Jose Miranda and OF Akil Baddoo), a fourth round pick (OF/1B Trey Cabbage), a Twins fifth rounder (3B Andrew Bechtold), a Mariners fifth round pick (C David Banuelos, obtained in a trade) and an eighth round pick (OF Shane Carrier). On top of those “slot pick” players, outfielder Jean Carlos Arias was an international free agent that signed with the Twins for a mid-six-figure bonus.
 
And that list doesn't even include the pitching prospects.
 
He certainly gets his share of autograph requests, but there’s no doubt that sharing a field with Lewis and the other high-priced talent on the Kernels roster has resulted in Kirilloff playing in a broad shadow during the early part of the 2018 season, despite having one of the cleanest, most consistent and most productive swings you’re ever likely to see from a 20-year-old.
 
Spend a few minutes talking to the 20-year-old from Pittsburgh, though, and you can tell he is not the least bit bothered by his circumstances. Quite the contrary.
 
“It is a lot of fun,” Kirilloff responded, over the weekend, when asked his feelings about being a part of a lineup that is pretty much loaded with highly regarded position prospects. “We all have to still show up and do our jobs, but it’s a great group of guys that are even better people, as well. They’re fun to be around and an exciting team.”
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Kirilloff0506b-400x600.jpg
Alex Kirilloff (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
At this point, you can understand if Kirilloff is just happy to be back taking meaningful swings at the plate after missing all of the 2017 season following Tommy John surgery. It would also be understandable if he had started off this spring a bit rusty, but there’s no rust in his swing.
 
“I had known it was not going to be easy, at first, taking a year and a half off from live at-bats,” he said. “I was expecting to take it one step at a time, to be honest. I learned a lot from spring training and kind of built on that and just continued to plug away this year. Hopefully, I can continue to build off of our start and my start, as well.”
 
Best of all, perhaps, there have been no lingering effects from his injury.
 
“The arm’s great. No problems. It’s been a blessing,” he confirmed.
 
It hasn’t all been easy, though. Cedar Rapids played several games in near freezing temperatures and even occasional snow flurries during April and even had to sit through a six-day layoff caused by cold temperatures and snow. It’s not that they didn’t notice, he and his team mates just treated the inclement weather as one more part of learning to be professional ballplayers.
 
“It was just really cold here at the beginning of the year,” he recalled. “But, all of us were expecting that, being in Iowa.”
 
You might think that Kirilloff is anxious to quickly make up for the development time he lost by sitting out last season, but that’s not really at the forefront of his mind this spring.
 
“Just kind of maintaining for 140 games is the biggest key for this year,” Kirilloff said, adding, “and keeping my body healthy. Staying on an even keel throughout that whole stretch is going to be big. It’s a long season.”
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Kirilloff0506e-600x400.jpg
Alex Kirilloff signing autographs during a Sunday post-game autograph session (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
Still, with such a hot start, you couldn’t blame Kirilloff if he got a bit antsy about whether his hot start might be earning an early promotion to Fort Myers. If that’s the case, you’d never know it.
 
“I’m content where I am,” he said. “Wherever that takes me, I’m going to play as hard as I can, whether I’m here or wherever else.”
 
That kind of level-headed approach to his baseball life probably wouldn’t come as a huge surprise to those who know the young man who married his wife, Jordan, just a few months after he was drafted by the Twins in 2016 and was home-schooled – not only with regard to the typical educational curriculum, but where baseball is concerned, as well.
 
“Yeah, my dad’s been a hitting instructor and a coach my whole life,” he said, smiling. “He’s always had his own hitting facility back in Pittsburgh, so I was raised in that environment as a kid. I’d go to work with him and be around that stuff all day long. So, he’s been a pretty integral part in my career and my life. Teaching me and developing me.
 
“He tells the story sometimes that the day I could stand up and walk, he put a bat in my hands. I kind of get a chuckle out of that.”
 
That might certainly explain that sweet swing.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

After struggling his previous two seasons in the Minnesota Twins organization, Rortvedt is on fire to start 2018. He is finally coming into his own and becoming the catcher many thought he would become when drafted in the second round out of high school in 2016. After two subpar years, the great Tom Froemming and I were still high really high on Rortvedt. Still only 20, he has plenty of room for growth, and has the opportunity to be an All-Star catcher in the big leagues.
 
Rortvedt was more known for his offense coming out of Verona Area High School in Wisconsin, but his offense has struggled so far in his first two seasons, while his defense has been a real positive. As a senior in high school, he finished the season with an on-base percentage of .568 and a slugging percentage of .667. He was considered the top offensive high school catcher in the 2016 draft. So, it was just a matter of time before his offense came around. His defense, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise.
 
On defense, he threw out 36.2 percent of potential base stealers (30 of 83) last season. So far this year, he caught the only base runner trying to steal on him. His calling of the game is much-improved as well. In an article by Mike Berardino, he talked to Twins first base coach Jeff Smith.
 
“He receives the ball well; he’s got real soft hands,” said Smith, in the Berardino article. “He gives a good target and has made huge strides in his game calling and his ability to work with his pitching coach and his pitchers. Ben can really throw, too.”
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Rortvedt2017c900-600x400.jpg
In his first two seasons, the best average for him was .250 in 13 games in Elizabethton in 2016. In his other two stops, he hit .203 with the GCL Twins and .224 in his first full season with Cedar Rapids in 2017. Rortvedt, hitting .471 through four games in 2018, is off to a really nice start, which is surprising considering he started out really slow in both of his previous years. I know it is really early, but I believe he has turned a corner. He has eight hits in 17 at-bats in his four games so far. In 2016, as a rookie, he started off hitting .179 (12-67) in his first 22. It was even worse in Cedar Rapids last season, hitting just .145 (16-110) in his first two months of the season.
 
But, to his credit, he was able to bounce back from both of those slow starts. In 2016, after starting out slow in both the Gulf Coast League and Elizabethton, Rortvedt hit .313 (10-32) in his final 11 games. Unfortunately, as I mentioned, he could not carry the positive momentum into 2017 from the ending to the previous season. However, he did have a decent ending. After the woeful beginning to the season, Rortvedt finished the season batting .224, but in his final three months, he hit .268. That does not seem great, but it is a definite improvement, especially in his first full season playing professional baseball. In those final three months, he hit all four of his homers on the year. He was also the second youngest player to play for the Kernels last year, only older than 2017 first overall pick Royce Lewis.
 
If Rortvedt keeps it up with the Kernels, he should be in the state of Florida by the month of June, maybe even sooner. It would also clear up a spot for David Banuelos to become the every day catcher. Banuelos came over to the Twins in an offseason trade from the Seattle Mariners for International bonus pool money. Fort Myers lacks a powerful lineup, so Rortvedt would come in and make the Miracle lineup a force. Mitchell Kranson could be due for a promotion as well, which would clear up a spot for the Verona native. With his defense being a major strength already for him, when the offense comes around, which it is starting to, the sky is the limit for the youngster.

https://www.loc.gov/item/prn-18-036/?loclr=eanotw The library of Congress has given us a historical gift - the scouting reports of Branch Rickey. He was a vital part of baseball history, even beyond signing Jackie Robinson and this is where you can check it out.
 
Here are some notes from the introduction and entries that struck me:
Rickey’s 1963 scouting report on Hank Aaron, who broke Babe Ruth’s long-standing home run record of 714 in 1974. Rickey wrote "Surely one of the greatest hitters in baseball today. Can hit late with power, - good wrists. But in spite of his hitting record and admitted power ability, one cannot help think that Aaron is frequently a guess hitter."
A 1955 scouting report on Roberto Clemente, who amassed 3,000 hits in his Hall of Fame career for the Pittsburgh Pirates
A report dated March 30-31, 1964, on future National Basketball Association great Dave DeBusschere, where Rickey predicted that DeBusschere “should become a corking good major league pitcher.”
For Hall of Famer Bob Gibson, Rickey noted on March 14, 1964, “when trying out young players… scouts and coaches would keep in mind Bob Gibson as a model for comparison and rate the prospect’s stuff accordingly.”
About Richie Allen - “Rollie Hemsley at Indianapolis, Bill Adair at Toronto, Larry Shepard at Columbus, Kerby Farrell at Buffalo and Harry Walker at Atlanta all believe that outfielder Allen is the best major league prospect in the International League. A colored boy, very young, and belongs to Philadelphia. He has extraordinary power to all fields. Arm not great, but adequate. Highly desirable in any deal with Philadelphia. I am sorry not to have been able to see this boy in action, but rating give to the player by baseball men generally put him immediately as a regular in any major league outfield. I would risk a heavy deal to have the Cardinals Get this player.”
Minnesotan Twins 2B Bernie Allen – “Tall boy from Purdue. Left hand hitter, has power and I believe he can outrun Rollins. I doubt if he is a .300 hitter. Hit .269 in 1962, Not hitting a lick this year…”
Bob Allison – “A 275 hitter with exceptional power. Looks the part of a great athlete. Right hander all the way. He has everything it takes to be a long time major league regular.”
Earl Battey – “A big colored catcher. Looks overweight, but has a remarkable action. Quick and has power at the plate, plenty of it. Looks like he likes to play. I can imagine him in a World Series.”
Minnesota born, Yankee – John Blanchard – “If Blanchard’s habits were good and his team relationship satisfactory, St Louis could use him. I would not take him unless I were permitted to have a conversation with the player with results satisfactory to myself.”
Harmon Killebrew – “A big right hand hitter with as much distance power as any man in the game. Strikes out a great deal. I would not be interested in obtaining his contract in any kind of possible trade. I don’t want him at the price.”

 
It will take a lot of time to sort out everything, but this is a very personal glimpse into the game in the early 60's.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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With the recent slew of raw data we have about hitters, based on Statcast, new metrics based on that raw data have been developed to predict hitter performance, based on objective measurements, such as bat exit speed and launch angle. One of these metrics is the expected weighted on base average, or xwOBA. It is meant to compare directly to wOBA, in a manner similar to that of xFIP to FIP comparison's for pitchers. And in the same manner if xFIP-FIP is a positive number for a player, as a baseline, you expect a player to improve next season, and the opposite if it is a negative numbers. Of course, this is one factor, and additional factors, like training, mechanics change, adding muscle etc, will affect future performance; however, unlike xwOBA-xOBA, they are hard to measure.
 
wOBA tries to measure a player's total offensive performance based on a series of weighted operations on offensive events on a players. The link will give you some basic information on the metric. xwOBA is a similar formula based on Statcast exit speed and launch angle. The link explains in detail the metric.
 
Here are the xwOBA for the 2017 Twins' batters in two groups:
 
The ones expected to improve in 2018:
 
 

 
The ones expected to decline in 2018:
 

 
As indicated only Joe Mauer, and in a lesser degree, Jason Castro are projected to improve, as far as the 2018 startling 9 of the Twins go. Pretty much everyone else is projected to decline.
 
If one looks at several projections about what the 2018 will do, which are based on xwOBA, expect them to show an overall decline in wins.
 
There is a silver lining: Other than Brian Dozier (and free agent Chris Gimenez,) most of the Twins' hitters expected to decline based on this formula are young, and the other factors like development, changes in mechanics, could easily trump these projections. If the 2017 Twins' hitters were an older bunch, things would have been different.

This Twins have had a bit of a tortured history with analytics. In 2010 Rob Antony did an interview with TwinsDaily’s own Parker Hageman and revealed some interesting facts about the Twins and Sabermetrics. Antony stated this about their analytics department, “we're probably one of the last, if not the last, team to address it with a person dedicated solely to that.”. He went on further to fail to understand some fairly basic concepts about Sabermetrics. He thought FIP was “first strike in inning pitched” and was unable to guess about BABIP. He then revealed they had just hired their analytics guy and stated he would be “Gathering information and creating databases. This will be his first year. The guy that we brought in will start creating systems to build a foundation of our own that we can look at.” This is what I primarily want to get into as I have a background in IT.
 
In corporate America one of the techniques we use to understand what our competition is doing is to analyze their job postings. Have they posted an unusually large amount of Sales positions? Are they looking at specific geographic locations that have a concentration of talent? Are they asking for specific or unusual technical skills? These are all things we can look at to try to get an idea of intent and structure. I applied this technique to the Twins and their development job postings and found some interesting things.
 
2014 Posting
 
2015 Posting
 
One of the common details in both job postings is the fact that the Twins were looking for a developer who had experience doing front-end work (HTML, JavaScript), middle tier (.NET Framework, ASP.MVC), and the data layer (SQL Server). This implies a couple of things. The first is that the Twins are employing a standard three-tier architecture for their analytics.


It also implies that they only have “full stack” developers, which means they are required to know and to be able to develop in all 3 of their architecture tiers. This is problematic because is you are required to be able to code in everything that usually means you are unable to specialize or gain really in-depth knowledge on any single tier. For the Twins to take the next step in analytics I think they need to be hiring specialists in each of these areas.
 
Another thing I noticed is that the only data store they referred to is SQL Server. The reason that this is important is that the industry still values relational datamarts like SQL Server but they are also moving in the direction of unstructured Big Data repositories as well. Applications like Hadoop, HBASE, MongoDB, and many others allow unstructured data to be quickly stored and analyzed which allows for more experimentation by analysts when compared to a structured DB. I think the PITCH f/x and Trackman data has likely been analyzed enough but I think the next frontier is going into some less structured data. Putting medical records into a big data store and analyzing test results and notes to find patterns in identifying healthier players. Putting free text scouting reports into it and running natural language analytics on them using IBM Watson or some other AI service to identify key language or sentiments that indicate a player that is more likely to succeed. The addition of weather data and the analysis of its impact on specific players. I think there is a lot of room to grow here.
 
In short, I think it is likely this lack of specialization and not embracing the newer Big Data technologies led Thad Levine and Derek Falvey to go in a new direction this last fall with the analytics department. I wouldn’t be surprised if the hiring surge described in a recent article by Pat Reusse did not include hires to address these concerns. I am interested in your thoughts and feedback.