Andrew Thares

I wouldn't say that Gibson had BABIP bad luck. His BABIP in this game was .412, but his deserved BABIP based on his Statcast numbers was .369. He just left way too many pitches up in the zone, and Gibson doesn't have the stuff to get away with that.

But he also threw 29 pitches over an inning and a third on Monday. That's 47 pitches over the past three days. I highly doubt that he is available for 2 innings today.

Despite the, well, actually not all that surprising April snow storm Minnesota got hit with this week, it looks like the Twins will be able to play their home opener on Thursday as scheduled. This will be the Twins first series of the year that matters for more than just the win/loss record, as the Mariners expect to be one of the Twins competitors for a Wild Card spot at the end of the season.Series at a Glance Download attachment: Glance.PNG *Win Odds from FiveThirtyEight Minnesota Twins Through their first five games of the season, the Twins have already hit nine home runs (including four by Brian Dozier). However, not one of these home runs has come with runners on base. While a lot of this is a result of random bad luck, the Twins .308 on-base percentage is not helping matters either. Getting runners on base will be critically important for the Twins this year, as they expect to be a team that hits a lot of home runs as the season continues. Probable Starting Pitchers RHP Kyle Gibson Kyle Gibson picked up right where he left off in 2017, by throwing six no-hit innings and leading the Twins to their first win of the 2018 campaign. Gibson did struggle with his command in his first start, walking five Oriole batters, but he did an excellent job of giving up only weak contact. Over the course of his start, only three balls that were hit into play had an exit velocity greater than 90 MPH. Gibson made two starts against the Mariners last season, pitching 12 combined innings, with a 5.25 ERA, 8 strikeouts and 3 walks. RHP Jose Berrios The Twins picked up their first series win of the year in Baltimore on the back of Jose Berrios’ complete game shutout in the rubber match. So far, that is the only complete game shutout across Major League Baseball this season. Berrios will need more starts like that throughout the season if he wants to be considered a top tier starting pitcher. Against Seattle in 2017, Berrios made just one start on June 15th, when he gave up just two runs over eight innings on the way to a Twins 6-2 victory. RHP Lance Lynn Lance Lynn’s Twins debut didn’t go like he would have hoped. Lynn was having obvious struggles locating his fastball, which led to a career high six walks over just four innings pitched. Lynn will be looking to bounce back on Sunday, in what will be his first career start against the Mariners. Hopefully, facing an opponent that is unfamiliar with him will be a welcome relief for Lynn, as opposed to a Pirates team which faced him four times last year alone. Seattle Mariners The Seattle Mariners will be coming to Minnesota with a big hole in their lineup, as slugger Nelson Cruz was placed on the disabled list earlier this week after he suffered a sprained ankle in their series against Cleveland. The Mariners did the Twins a favor by taking two of three in that series behind a dominant start on Opening Day by Felix Hernandez. The Twins will avoid facing King Felix in this series, as he pitched in the final game of the Mariners series against San Francisco on Wednesday. Probable Starting Pitchers LHP James Paxton Download attachment: Paxton.PNG 2017 was a breakout year for James Paxton, whose 2.98 ERA was tied with Luis Severino for the fourth lowest by an AL pitcher with at least 130 innings last season. Paxton’s best pitch is his mid-to-upper 90s fastball, which according to the Fangraphs Pitch Value metrics was ranked as the fourth-best fastball by a starting pitcher last season. Paxton features a deceptive left-handed delivery, where he drops the ball behind his back and then comes through with an over-the-top delivery. In his lone start against the Twins last season, Paxton went just five innings, giving up three runs with four strikeouts and issued three walks. RHP Mike Leake Download attachment: Leake.PNG After pitching his entire career in the NL Central, Mike Leake was traded from St. Louis to Seattle last August. The 30-year-old has been one of the most durable pitchers in baseball since he made his MLB debut in 2010. After throwing 138.1 innings in his rookie season, Leake has not thrown less than 167.2 innings in any season since. There are only four hitters on the Twins 25-man roster (Dozier, Mauer, Rosario and Escobar) who have faced Leake. All of those at-bats came in 2015, back when Leake was still a member of the Cincinnati Reds. Overall, they did well against him, going 5 for 9 with a home run. LHP Marco Gonzales Download attachment: Marco.PNG As was Leake, Marco Gonzales was traded from St. Louis to Seattle during the 2017 season. Gonzales was considered by many as the Cardinals top pitching prospect in 2015, and made his MLB debut that season, throwing just 2.2 innings. Gonzales then missed all of 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but fought his way back to the big leagues in 2017. However, he struggled in limited time with both the Cardinals and Mariners, putting up a 6.08 ERA over 40 innings pitched. Players to Watch Robinson Cano, 2B Now in the fifth year of his ten-year contract with Seattle, Robinson Cano has done a good job of living up to his contract. Through the first four years, Cano has averaged 4.1 fWAR and is off to a hot start again this year. Though he has been passed by the likes of Jose Altuve and Brian Dozier as the best second basemen in baseball, Cano still remains one of the best middle-infielders in the game. Kyle Seager, 3B Kyle Seager is undoubtedly one of the most underrated players in major league baseball. Since the start of the 2012 season, Seager’s 25.9 fWAR ranks 14th in all of baseball. Part of the secret to Seager’s success is his remarkable consistency. In every year since that 2012 season Seager has come to the plate at least 650 times, hit at least 20 home runs and had an fWAR over 3.5. Dee Gordon, CF Older brother of Twins prospect Nick Gordon, Dee was part of the Miami Marlins fire sale that sent him to Seattle. Even though Gordon has been a career second baseman, the Mariners still saw a fit for him in their outfield. Gordon surely has the speed to handle center field, but only time will tell if that is enough to make up for his lack of experience there. The Twins will need to be cognizant of Gordon when he is on the base paths, as he can change the game with his speed. Bullpen Comparison Download attachment: Bullpens.PNG Rule 5 draft pick Tyler Kinley has yet to make his debut with the Twins. With the Twins having a lot of bullpen depth and plenty of days off early in the season, Molitor appears to be waiting for the right opportunity to give Kinley an opportunity. The Twins bullpen struggled with command in the first game of the Pirates series, giving up 5 walks over 4 innings. However, in game two they bounced back, walking just one in 4.2 shutout innings. Pressly, Reed, Rogers and Hildenberger have gotten off to great starts, as not one of them has given up a run yet this season. The Mariners have a very middle-of-the road bullpen. They don’t feature any shut-down relief pitchers, but they also don’t have much apparent weakness either. Seattle is the fourth ball club that veteran righty Juan Nicasio has pitched for since the start of the 2017 season. He is hoping to establish himself as the Mariners’ setup man this year. Edwin Diaz became the Mariners’ closer halfway through his rookie campaign in 2016 and has had a fair amount of success in that role since, finishing fifth in the American League with 34 saves last year. Zone Charts courtesy of baseballsavant.com Click here to view the article

Agreed, I would have saved Reed to potentially be available for an inning or two in the game tomorrow afternoon if needed.

The PECOTA system seems to be naturally more pessimistic for all players than many of the other projection systems.

The Twins infield depth took a real hit when it was announced that Jorge Polanco would have to serve an 80-game suspension for testing positive for PEDs. As it stands, every Twins infielder on the Twins 40-man roster is also on the 25-man roster. Again, for these projections I used PECOTA (via Baseball Prospectus), along with ZiPS and Steamer (via Fangraphs) to group with with my personal projections for each player in the Twins infield.Jason Castro, C It’s hard to find a player who has been more consistent than Jason Castro has been over the last four seasons. In each of those seasons Castro has played between 104 and 126 games, hit between 10 and 14 home runs, scored between 38 and 49 runs, had wRC+ between 80 and 93, provided above average defense at catcher and collected an fWAR between 1.2 and 1.6. This probably explains why the projections for Castro are nearly identical across the board. Mitch Garver, C Mitch Garver had a breakout season in AAA last year and was voted as the Twins 2017 Minor League Hitter of the Year by the Twins Daily staff. Garver has the bat to be a lot more of an offensive weapon than most backup catchers around the league. Garver also provides a quality right-handed bat for the lineup, which sets him up well to work in a platoon with the left-handed hitting Castro. Ehrie Adrianza, INF Before the Polanco suspension, Ehrie Adrianza’s role with the Twins in 2018 was going to be much if the same as it was last year. However, Adrianza will now need to take on a bigger role in the lineup as he will most likely split some time with Eduardo Escobar at short. Given that Adrianza is the better fielder of the two, I would expect to see him in the lineup whenever Kyle Gibson is on the hill to provide a little better infield defense for the groundball pitcher. Brian Dozier, 2B Brian Dozier has stepped up in a big way for the Twins over the last few seasons, earning MVP votes in each of the last three. The projection systems are being a little cautious for Dozier this season, and I am as well. For me, the biggest reason is it is difficult to project a player to have better than a 4.0 fWAR season (which is still a really good year) unless they are one of the top 10-20 players in the game. Let’s hope we are all wrong and Dozier blows these projections out of the water. Eduardo Escobar, SS At the end of 2017, Eduardo Escobar was thrust into the role of full-time third baseman after Miguel Sano went down with an injury, and did he ever take advantage of it. From August 20th on (the day after the Sano injury) Escobar hit 10 home runs and had an OPS of .826. The Twins are hoping Escobar can step up again this year and fill their hole at short. Joe Mauer, 1B/DH After years of struggling with symptoms from a concussion that forced him out from behind the plate, Joe Mauer finally seemed like his old self again last year. If Joe wants to continue his career in Minnesota beyond 2018, he will need another season like that this year. Joe’s improvements defensively at first have been well noted and will make him the primary option to play there over Logan Morrison throughout the season. Logan Morrison, 1B/DH Entering the offseason, Logan Morrison wasn’t anywhere on the Twins radar. However, with the unusual free agency market, Morrison’s value plummeted to a point where Derek Falvey and Thad Levine just couldn’t pass him up. In 2017, Morrison tallied 38 home runs, after never hitting more than 23 in any season in his career. While the projection systems rely mostly on numbers that would suggest he should regress this season, I see a player who made a change in his swing that caused the spike in his home run output. This is why I believe that he can repeat that performance again this season. Miguel Sano, 3B Miguel Sano will avoid a suspension to begin the season after assault allegations were made against him this winter. On the field, the Twins are showing faith in Sano’s ability to stay at third, at least in the short term. Offensively, there is no question about Sano’s power, but questions do remain about his ability to stay healthy, and if his supporting numbers were propped up on his .375 BABIP last season. Jorge Polanco, SS Jorge Polanco broke out of his shell over the last two months of 2017, which is what makes his 80-game suspension to start the season all the more disheartening. Polanco is set to come off of his suspension on June 30th, which will be in the middle of a three-game set against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Only time will tell if Polanco’s hot stretch was truly a break-out, or if it was more of a product of a small sample size. See Also Twins Starting Pitcher Projections for 2018 Twins Relief Pitcher Projections For 2018 Click here to view the article

Good catch, we updated this now to correct the error.

The Twins infield depth took a real hit when it was announced that Jorge Polanco would have to serve an 80-game suspension for testing positive for PEDs. As it stands, every Twins infielder on the Twins 40-man roster is also on the 25-man roster. Again, for these projections I used PECOTA (via Baseball Prospectus), along with ZiPS and Steamer (via Fangraphs) to group with with my personal projections for each player in the Twins infield. Jason Castro, C It’s hard to find a player that has been more consistent than Jason Castro has been over the last four seasons. In each of those seasons Castro has played between 104 and 126 games, hit between 10 and 14 home runs, scored between 38 and 49 runs, had wRC+ between 80 and 93, provided above average defense at catcher, and collected an fWAR between 1.2 and 1.6. This probably explains why the projects for Castro are nearly identical across the board. Mitch Garver, C Mitch Garver had a breakout season in AAA last year and was voted as the Twins 2017 Minor League Hitter of the Year by the Twins Daily staff. Garver has the bat to be a lot more of an offensive weapon than most backup catchers around the league. Garver also provides a quality right-handed bat for the lineup, which sets him up well to work in a platoon with the left-handed hitting Castro. Ehrie Adrianza, INF Before the Polanco suspension, Ehrie Adrianza’s role with the Twins in 2018 was going to be much if the same as it was last year. However, Adrianza will now need to take on a bigger role in the lineup as he will most likely split some time with Eduardo Escobar at short. Given that Adrianza is the better fielder of the two, I would expect to see him in the lineup whenever Kyle Gibson is on the hill to provide a little better infield defense for the groundball pitcher. Brian Dozier, 2B Brian Dozier has stepped up in a big way for the Twins over the last few seasons, earning MVP votes in each of the last three. The projection systems are being a little cautious for Dozier this season, and I am as well. For me, the biggest reason is it is difficult to project a player to have better than a 4.0 fWAR season (which is still a really good year) unless they are one of the top 10-20 players in the game. Let’s hope we are all wrong and Dozier blows these projections out of the water. Eduardo Escobar, SS At the end of 2017, Eduardo Escobar was thrust into the role of full-time third baseman after Miguel Sano went down with an injury, and did he ever take advantage of it. From August 20th on (the day after the Sano injury) Escobar hit 10 home runs and had an OPS of .826. The Twins are hoping Escobar can step up again this year and fill their hole at short. Joe Mauer, 1B/DH After years of struggling with symptoms from a concussion that forced him out from behind the plate, Joe Mauer finally seemed like his old self again last year. If Joe wants to continue his career in Minnesota beyond 2018, he will need another season like that this year. Joe’s improvements defensively at first have been well noted and will make him the primary option to play there over Logan Morrison throughout the season. Logan Morrison, 1B/DH Entering the offseason, Logan Morrison wasn’t anywhere on the Twins radar. However, with the unusual free agency, Morrison’s value plummeted to a point where Derek Falvey and Thad Levine just couldn’t pass him up. In 2017, Morrison tallied 38 home runs, after never hitting more than 23 in any season in his career. While the projection systems rely mostly on numbers that would suggest he should regress this season, I see a player who made a change in his swing that caused the spike in his home run output. This is why I believe that he can repeat that performance again this season. Miguel Sano, 3B Miguel Sano will avoid a suspension to begin the season after assault allegations were made against him this winter. On the field, the Twins are showing faith in Sano’s ability to stay at third, at least in the short term. Offensively, there is no question about Sano’s power, but questions do remain about his ability to stay healthy, and if his supporting numbers were propped up on his .375 BABIP last season. Jorge Polanco, SS Jorge Polanco broke out of his shell over the last two months of 2017, which is what makes his 80-game suspension to start the season all the more disheartening. Polanco is set to come off of his suspension on June 30th, which will be in the middle of a three-game set against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Only time will tell if Polanco’s hot stretch was truly a break-out, or if it was more of a product of a small sample size.

It is time for round two of my player projections for the 2018 Minnesota Twins. In the first edition I broke down the starting pitchers, and now it is time to take a look at the bullpen. The Twins bullpen received an added boost this offseason, after replacing Matt Belisle, Dillon Gee and Buddy Boshers with Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zack Duke. Hopefully these improvements can elevate the Twins bullpen out of the gutter it has been in during recent years.So, how good will the Twins bullpen be this year? Here are my projections for each player in the Twins bullpen, joined by the PECOTA projections, as found on Baseball Prospectus, along with the ZiPS and Steamer projections, which can be found on Fangraphs. RHP Fernando Rodney Fernando Rodney got off to a terrible start in 2017, with a 12.60 ERA through the month of April. However, after April, Rodney was lights out with a 2.38 ERA and a .442 OPS against. This was a driving factor in the Twins giving the 41-year-old an opportunity to be their closer for 2018. RHP Addison Reed Heading into the offseason, MLB Trade Rumors has Addison Reed ranked as their third best free agent relief pitcher, in what was a very deep class. Reed has dominated over the past two seasons, posting a 2.40 ERA over 153.2 innings on his way to the eighth best fWAR among all MLB relievers during that time. If he can continue this success, he could be Paul Molitor’s go to option when the Twins are in a jam. RHP Trevor Hildenberger The funky throwing right-handler may have been the surprise of the Twins bullpen last season. Trevor Hildenberger thrived off his 7.33 strikeout to walk ratio, which was aided by his impeccable control and deceptive delivery. Hildenberger’s delivery isn’t the only deceptive part of his game, as he routinely has a 15-20 MPH gap between his fastball and changeup. Another benefit that Hildenberger brings to the Twins bullpen is his effectiveness against both righties and lefties. This could be a key factor in a bullpen whose top three pitchers are all right-handed. LHP Zach Duke From 2014-2016, Zach Duke made 226 relief appearances, the third most in the MLB over that time. However, after the 2016 season, Duke underwent Tommy John surgery, causing him to miss most of 2017. When he did return, Duke looked like a completely different reliever. While he was still effective (a 3.93 ERA over 18.1 innings) his strikeout rate dropped from the 10.4 K/9 it was at from 2014-2016, down to 5.9 K/9. Some of this may be due to a small sample size, but it is something to keep an eye on this year. LHP Taylor Rogers After a decent rookie season in 2016, Rogers followed it up with a strong year in 2017. His 3.07 ERA ranked first among qualified relievers on the Twins last season. However, there were a couple areas of concern for Rogers in 2017. The first was his strikeout rate dropping by nearly 1.5 K/9 (down to 7.92), and the second was his walk rate rising by more than 1 BB/9 (up to 3.40). Rogers will need to see improvement in these numbers if he wants to keep building off the success he had last season. RHP Ryan Pressly Ryan Pressly was hit hard by the homer bug last year, giving up 10 in just 61.1 innings pitched. This lead to his spiked 4.70 ERA. However, Ryan Pressly is being pegged for a bounce back season in 2018, even more so by the projection systems than myself. A big reason for this was his HR/FB% in 2017 was double that of his career average entering the season. Part of this may have been influenced by the league-wide home run surge, but Pressly seemed to be hit especially hard by it. Look for that to regress in 2018, and as a result an improved season from Pressly. RHP Tyler Duffey In 2017, Tyler Duffey mad the transition from the rotation to the bullpen where for the most part he was successful. His 4.94 ERA was largely inflated because of five bad outings, when he gave up a combined 17 earned runs over just 3.1 innings. In Duffey’s 51 other outings, he combined for a 2.93 ERA across 67.2 innings. Given the added depth to the pitching staff in 2018, Duffey has been demoted back down to Rochester, where he will have the opportunity to work out the kinks that led to his bad outings last year. RHP Alan Busenitz Download attachment: Alan Busenitz 2018 Projections.PNG Alan Busenitz had a strong rookie debut for the Twins last season and turned out to be one of Molitor’s most trusted arms out of the bullpen down the stretch. However, Busenitz is another pitcher who fell victim to the added depth in the bullpen and was optioned to AAA. One big area of concern for Busenitz was the fact that his strong 1.99 ERA was propped up on his 86.6 left-on-base percentage, which is a nearly unsustainable number for a pitcher with just a 6.54 K/9. LHP Gabriel Moya Gabriel Moya was having a lights-out season for AA Jackson (Diamondbacks) last season, which sparked the Twins interest in parting ways with John Ryan Murphy to acquire him. As a part of the Twins organization Moya’s success continued, and he earned a call up straight from AA, after putting up a microscopic 0.77 ERA, along with 13.4 K/9 and just 2.3 BB/9 over 58.1 innings. With Phil Hughes beginning the season on the DL, Moya will get another opportunity in the Twins bullpen to start the year. RHP Tyler Kinley The Rule 5 selection of Tyler Kinley left many people scratching their heads, especially since the Twins exposed Nick Burdi and Luke Bard to the draft in the process. Kinley has a fastball that can touch triple-digits, but he doesn’t seem to know which direction the ball will go. The Twins are hoping Kinley can build off the success he had in the Dominican Winter League, where he gave up just 1 run over 19 innings. Kinley was in a battle with Moya for the final roster spot, until today when Hughes got hurt, opening the door for both pitchers. RHP Trevor May Trevor May’s 2017 ended before it even started after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March. Trevor is targeting a return in either late May or early June. While many have hopes of Trevor returning to the rotation once he is healthy, I do not see that happening. He will most likely fit into the bullpen, where the team will likely put a strict innings limit on him. RHP John Curtiss John Curtiss made his major league debut for the Twins last season, and it is safe to say that it did not go as planned for him (8.31 ERA over 8.2 innings). While this wasn’t good it is hard to take anything substantial out of such a small sample. Before his call up, Curtiss was one of Minnesota’s most effective minor league relievers in both AA and AAA. The big question for Curtiss will be his ability to control the strike zone. If he can figure that out he has the potential to be a back-end of the bullpen arm for the Twins. Click here to view the article

Maybe, but even if Buxton has say the offensive season Dozier had last year, I still think Trout has a better WAR than Buxton, even with the defensive gap between the two. Trout is just that far ahead of everyone else offensively.

I was deciding between Reed and Hildenberger for that spot. It's gonna be really close.

The Twins are opening the 2018 season with a five-game road trip starting in Baltimore on Thursday. Last season the Twins went 5-2 against the Orioles, including sweeping a three-game series in Baltimore. It is imperative that the Twins get off to a fast start to begin the season, with a few easier opponents on the schedule, before a very important extended home stand next week, when they face Wild Card contender Seattle, the defending World Series Champion Astros and have their first series of the year against Cleveland.Series at a Glance: Download attachment: Baltimore Series at a Glance 3-29-2018.PNG *Win Odds from FiveThirtyEight Minnesota Twins The 2018 Minnesota Twins are looking to build off the turnaround season they had in 2017. With a young core of position players, and a revamped pitching staff, many expect that the Twins will be a contender again this year. Probable Starting Pitchers RHP Jake Odorizzi After much was made about a potential Twins and Rays trade involving Chris Archer, the two ended up agreeing on a deal that sent Jake Odorizzi to the Twins. The soon- to-be 28-year old has been a productive pitcher over the past four seasons in Tampa, posting a 3.81 ERA over 668.1 innings in that time. RHP Kyle Gibson With the injury to Ervin Santana, and the late start of Lance Lynn’s spring, Kyle Gibson slides into the third spot in the Twins rotation to start the season. Gibson is looking to build off his strong finish to 2017, when he had a 2.92 ERA over his final 8 starts. RHP Jose Berrios After struggling in his rookie campaign, Berrios did well adjusting to big league hitters in 2017. In an organization that has been starved for a front of the rotation ace since the days of Johan Santana, Berrios showed signs that he has what it takes to fill that role for the Twins for years to come. Baltimore Orioles After having the best record in the American League from 2012-2016, the Baltimore Orioles enter 2018 at what appears to be the end of their window of contention. 2017 was a disappointing season for Baltimore, finishing the season with just 75 wins, after they were favored by many to be a Wild Card contender. Probable Starting Pitchers RHP Dylan Bundy Download attachment: Dylan Bundy 3-29-2018.PNG Dylan Bundy is coming off what was just his first full season as a starter in the major leagues. Even though Bundy is a player who has been hyped up for what feels like forever, he will only be in his age-25 season in 2018. Much like Gausman, Bundy is a pitcher with electric stuff who hasn’t quite put it all together. Last season, Bundy had one good start and one bad start against the Twins. In those two starts, Bundy gave up eight runs, with seven strikeouts and five walks over 12 innings. RHP Andrew Cashner Download attachment: Andrew Cashner 3-31-2018.PNG Andrew Cashner may have put together the most unorthodox good season in recent memory. If Cashner had had this season a decade ago, he would have been viewed as a big name free agent heading into this offseason. Unfortunately for Cashner, in the modern era, MLB teams looked right through his 3.40 ERA, and saw his terrible peripheral numbers. This led him to signing just a two-year, $16M deal with Baltimore. In 2017, as a member of the Texas Rangers, Cashner made one start against the Twins, going four innings, giving up two runs with three strikeouts and six walks. RHP Kevin Gausman Download attachment: Kevin Gausman 4-1-2018.PNG Kevin Gausman had struggles with controlling the strike zone last year, as his 8.7% walk rate was the highest of his career. If he can get this dialed back in, Gausman has the stuff to be a top-30 starter in baseball. In 2017, Gausman made one start against the Twins, where he went four innings, giving up six runs (five earned) with seven strikeouts and no walks. Players to Watch Manny Machado, SS 2017 was a bit of a down year of Manny Machado offensively. Among the 22 qualified third basemen last season, Machado’s 102 wRC+ ranked just 18th. In 2018, Machado plans to make the move back to shortstop, his natural position, where he will be able to take full advantage of his defensive abilities. Jonathan Schoop, 2B Last year was a breakout season for Jonathan Schoop, as he notched his first career All-Star appearance. In what was his fourth full season in the bigs, Schoop slugged 32 home runs, to go along with an .841 OPS and a .355 wOBA. This, along with slightly above-average defense at second base, resulted in Schoop finishing 12th in the AL MVP voting. Trey Mancini, LF After tearing up minor league pitching on his way to the majors, 2017 was more of the same for Trey Mancini during his rookie campaign. Over the course of 147 games, Mancini had 24 home runs and a slash line of .293/.338/.488. However, due to Aaron Judge’s historic rookie year, Mancini fell a little under the radar when it came to his strong rookie season. Bullpen Comparison Download attachment: Orioles Bullpen Comparison 3-29-2018.PNG (2017 Stats) *Reflects Minor League Stats The Twins made it a priority to shore up their bullpen this winter with additions of Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zach Duke. While they still lack a true relief ace, the bullpen has a lot more stability from top to bottom, which will give Paul Molitor plenty of options to mix and match late in games. The Orioles bullpen suffered a big setback when their star closer Zach Britton ruptured his Achilles in December. The Orioles may have lost their go-to shutdown reliever, but they still feature a solid group of pitchers in the pen. This may very well come into play in the series if their starters are unable to pitch deep into the ballgame. Zone Charts courtesy of baseballsavant.com Click here to view the article

It is time for round two of my player projections for the 2018 Minnesota Twins. In the first edition I broke down the starting pitchers, and now it is time to take a look at the bullpen. The Twins bullpen received an added boost this offseason, after replacing Matt Belisle, Dillon Gee and Buddy Boshers with Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zack Duke. Hopefully these improvements can elevate the Twins bullpen out of the gutter it has been in during recent years. So, how good will the Twins bullpen be this year? Here are my projections for each player in the Twins bullpen, joined by the PECOTA projections, as found on Baseball Prospectus, along with the ZiPS and Steamer projections, which can be found on Fangraphs. RHP Fernando Rodney Fernando Rodney got off to a terrible start in 2017, with a 12.60 ERA through the month of April. However, after April, Rodney was lights out with a 2.38 ERA and a .442 OPS against. This was a driving factor in the Twins giving the 41-year-old an opportunity to be their closer for 2018. RHP Addison Reed Heading into the offseason, MLB Trade Rumors has Addison Reed ranked as their 3rd best free agent relief pitcher, in what was a very deep class. Reed has dominated over the past two seasons, posting a 2.40 ERA over 153.2 innings on his way to the 8th best fWAR among all MLB relievers during that time. If he can continue this success, he could be Paul Molitor’s go to option when the Twins are in a jam. RHP Trevor Hildenberger The funky throwing right-handler may have been the surprise of the Twins bullpen last season. Trevor Hildenberger thrived off his 7.33 strikeout to walk ratio, which was aided by his impeccable control and deceptive delivery. Hildenberger’s delivery isn’t the only deceptive part of his game, as he routinely has a 15-20 MPH gap between his fastball and changeup. Another benefit that Hildenberger brings to the Twins bullpen is his effectiveness against both righties and lefties. This could be a key factor in a bullpen whose top three pitchers are all right-handed. LHP Zach Duke From 2014-2016, Zach Duke made 226 relief appearances, the 3rd most in the MLB over that time. However, after the 2016 season, Duke underwent Tommy John surgery, causing him to miss most of 2017. When he did return, Duke looked like a completely different reliever. While he was still effective (a 3.93 ERA over 18.1 innings) his strikeout rate dropped from the 10.4 K/9 it was at from 2014-2016, down to 5.9 K/9. Some of this may be due to a small sample size, but it is something to keep an eye on this year. LHP Taylor Rogers After a decent rookie season in 2016, Rogers followed it up with a strong year in 2017. His 3.07 ERA ranked first among qualified relievers on the Twins last season. However, there were a couple areas of concern for Rogers in 2017. The first was his strikeout rate dropping by nearly 1.5 K/9 (down to 7.92), and the second was his walk rate raising by more than 1 BB/9 (up to 3.40). Rogers will need to see improvement in these numbers if he wants to keep building off the success he had last season. RHP Ryan Pressly Ryan Pressly was hit hard by the homer bug last year, giving up 10 in just 61.1 innings pitched. This lead to his spiked 4.70 ERA. However, Ryan Pressly is being pegged for a bounce back season in 2018, even more so from the projection systems than myself. A big reason for this was his HR/FB% in 2017 was double that of his career average entering the season. Part of this may have been influenced by the league wide home run surge, but Pressly seemed to be hit especially hard by it. Look for that to regress in 2018, and as a result an improved season from Pressly. RHP Tyler Duffey In 2017, Tyler Duffey mad the transition from the rotation to the bullpen where for the most part he was successful. His 4.94 ERA was largely inflated because of five bad outings, where he gave up a combined 17 earned runs over just 3.1 innings. In Duffey’s 51 other outings, he combined for a 2.93 ERA across 67.2 innings. Given the added depth to the pitching staff in 2018, Duffey has been demoted back down to Rochester, where he will have the opportunity to work out the kinks that lead to his bad outings last year. RHP Alan Busenitz Alan Busenitz had a strong rookie debut for the Twins last season and turned out to be one of Molitor’s most trusted arms out of the bullpen down the stretch. However, Busenitz is another pitcher who fell victim to the added depth in the bullpen and was optioned to AAA. One big area of concern for Busenitz was the fact that his strong 1.99 ERA was propped up on his 86.6 left-on-base percentage, which is a nearly unsustainable number for a pitcher with just a 6.54 K/9. LHP Gabriel Moya Gabriel Moya was having a lights out season for AA Jackson (Diamondbacks) last season, which sparked the Twins interest in parting ways with John Ryan Murphy to acquire him. As a part of the Twins organization Moya’s success continued, and he earned a call up straight from AA, after putting up a microscopic 0.77 ERA, along with 13.4 K/9 and just 2.3 BB/9 over 58.1 innings. With Phil Hughes beginning the season on the DL, Moya will get another opportunity in the Twins bullpen to start the year. RHP Tyler Kinley The Rule 5 selection of Tyler Kinley left many people scratching their heads, especially since the Twins exposed Nick Burdi and Luke Bard to the draft in the process. Kinley has a fastball that can touch triple-digits, but he doesn’t seem to know which direction the ball will go. The Twins are hoping Kinley can build off the success he had in the Dominican Winter League, where he gave up just 1 run over 19 innings. Kinley was in a battle with Moya for the final roster spot, until today when Hughes got hurt, opening the door for both pitchers. RHP Trevor May Trevor May’s 2017 ended before it even started after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March. Trevor is targeting a return in either late May or early June. While many have hopes of Trevor returning to the rotation once his is healthy, I do not see that happening. He will most likely fit into the bullpen, where the team will most likely put a strict innings limit on him. RHP John Curtiss John Curtiss made his major league debut for the Twins last season, and it is safe to say that it did not go as planned for him (8.31 ERA over 8.2 innings). While this wasn’t good it is hard to take anything substantial out of such a small sample. Before his call up, Curtiss was one of Minnesota’s most effective minor league relievers in both AA and AAA. The big question for Curtiss will be his ability to control the strike zone. If he can figure that out he has the potential to be a back-end of the bullpen arm for the Twins.

It's an extension off the Babip, Pecota, Vorp, & Eckstein Law firm from Parks and Rec

With the 2018 season right around the corner, perhaps the biggest topic in baseball circles right now is player projections. Whether it is for fantasy purposes or for trying to predict how your favorite team is going to play this season, people can’t get enough of them. So, I decided to create my own projections for each player on the Twins 40-man roster, and then see how my projections stack up versus some of the other more prominent projection systems.The systems that I compared to are PECOTA, which is found on Baseball Prospectus, along with ZiPS and Steamer, which can both be found on FanGraphs. Please note that not all of the systems use the same formula when calculating WAR. Additionally, the ZiPS projections for playing time assume a full season's worth of work, even for players who will most likely spend most of the season in the minor leagues. In the first edition we will be looking at the starting pitchers who are currently on the Twins 40-man roster. RHP Jose Berrios These projection systems are notorious for underrating potential year-to-year improvement from younger players. Personally, I see Jose Berrios taking another step forward in 2018. If Berrios can make this step forward, the Twins could be looking at the potential ACE of their staff. RHP Lance Lynn Much has been made about Lance Lynn’s 3.43 ERA in 2017 being much lower than his peripheral stats suggested it should have been. This explains a lot of low expectations that PECOTA and Steamer have for him. While I do see Lynn taking a step back this year, it is hard to see his ERA inflating by nearly a run and a half, especially from a guy who in his career has never had an ERA above 3.97. RHP Jake Odorizzi In a very similar way to Lynn, Jake Odorizzi put up an ERA in 2017 that was a fair amount lower than his underlying numbers suggested. A couple of factors that led to this were the spike in his walk rate, which was nearly a walk per nine higher than his career average, and the increase in his HR/FB%, which rose from his 9.9% career average prior to 2017, up to 15.5% in 2017. If Odorizzi can bring these numbers back to his career norms, he should have no problem maintaining his numbers from last season. RHP Ervin Santana Ervin Santana got off to a great start last season, posting a 1.75 ERA through May. However, over the last four months of the season, Santana had an ERA over four. Given Santana’s age and track record, it can be expected that we will see more of the latter from Santana in 2018. The big question mark for Santana entering this season will be his ability to come back from the injury and surgery to his pitching hand. RHP Kyle Gibson Kyle Gibson is hoping to build off a strong end to 2017, where he posted a 2.92 ERA over his final eight starts of the season. While this could be looked at as a sign of optimism that Gibson has turned a corner, the truth is Gibson benefited from facing weak offenses in those starts, as not one of his eight opponents ranked higher than 19th in runs scored. RHP Phil Hughes Phil Hughes is viewed at by many as a thorn in the side of the Twins pitching staff. His inability to stay healthy, along with poor performance when he is healthy, have provided a real weak spot for the Twins over the last couple of seasons. Unfortunately for the Twins, Hughes is still owed $26.4M over the next two seasons, which is about the only thing guaranteeing him a roster spot as we begin 2018. LHP Adalberto Mejia Adalberto Mejia was a fine pitcher for the Twins last season and looked to be a lock for the Twins rotation entering the winter. However, Mejia fell victim to the surprisingly slow offseason, which enabled the Twins to add two new starters to their rotation. With Mejia’s flexibility, given that he could still be optioned, he has become the odd man out in the Twins rotation. Mejia will most likely serve as the first man called up from AAA when the Twins need a spot start throughout the season, or if they need depth due to injuries. LHP Stephen Gonsalves If there is a minor league pitcher who I expect to break out this year and help the Twins in 2018 it is Stephen Gonsalves. It is hard to remember the last time that the Twins had a pitching prospect with as high of a floor as Gonsalves. Unlike Mejia, whose opportunities with the big club might mostly be dictated by opportunity, Gonsalves has the ability to force the front office to find a spot for him on the MLB roster if he is pitching well enough in Rochester. RHP Fernando Romero The other minor league candidate who has a real shot of forcing his way into the 2018 Twins rotation is Fernando Romero. Romero was lights out throughout the spring and has the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter for the Twins. Romero isn’t as refined of a pitcher as Gonsalves quite yet, but he is quickly closing the gap. RHP Aaron Slegers Much like Mejia, Aaron Slegers is another pitcher who was hurt by the Twins additions of both Odorizzi and Lynn. If it wasn’t for that, Slegers would have had an opportunity to serve a bigger role for the Twins this year than he did in 2017. Though, as it stands, it is looking like Slegers will be pegged into the role of a spot starter again this season. RHP Felix Jorge Felix Jorge made a surprise start for the Twins in 2017, after getting called up from AA. After an unsuccessful outing, he was sent back to Chattanooga, where he continued his strong 2017 for the Lookouts. Jorge will most likely spend much of 2018 in Rochester and may get a spot start or two as a September call-up. LHP Dietrich Enns Acquired as part of the trade that sent Jamie Garcia and cash to the Yankees, Dietrich Enns is a pitcher who has had a lot of success at the minor league level, with a 1.88 ERA over six career minor league season. Enns will spend most of the season as part of the deep Rochester pitching staff, but if he is pitching well he will be in consideration to receive a spot start or two throughout the season. RHP Zack Littell As the other piece that the Twins received in the Jamie Garcia trade, Zack Littell is a little bit further away from the bigs than Enns. However, at just 22, and 2/3 of a season at AA under his belt, Littell is a pitcher with definite upside for the Twins. Despite this, Littell still remains a long shot to break through with the Twins before September. RHP Lewis Thorpe Lewis Thorpe was surprised himself when the Twins added him to the 40-man roster last November. It is hard to believe that Thorpe will have much of a shot at helping the big-league team in 2018, as he is still working his way back after missing all of 2015 and 2016 with injuries and an illness. Thorpe could see a few relief outings for the Twins in September if he stays healthy. Click here to view the article

With the 2018 season right around the corner, perhaps the biggest topic in baseball circles right now is player projections. Whether it is for fantasy purposes, or for trying to predict how your favorite team is going to play this season, people can’t get enough of them. So, I decided to create my own projections for each player on the Twins 40-man roster, and then see how my projections stack up versus some of the other more prominent projection systems. The systems that I used to compare are PECOTA, which is found on Baseball Prospectus, along with ZiPS and Steamer, which can both be found on Fangraphs. Please note that not all of the systems use the same formula when calculating WAR. Additionally, the ZiPS projections for playing time assume a full seasons worth of work, even for players who will most likely spend most of the season in the minor leagues. In the first edition we will be looking at the starting pitchers that are currently on the Twins 40-man roster. RHP Jose Berrios These projection systems are notorious for underrating potential year-to-year improvement from younger players. Personally, I see Jose Berrios taking another step forward in 2018. If Berrios can make this step forward, the Twins could be looking at the potential ACE of their staff. RHP Lance Lynn Much has been made about Lance Lynn’s 3.43 ERA in 2017 being much lower than his peripheral stats suggested it should be that. This explains a lot of low expectations that PECOTA and Steamer have for him. While I do see Lynn taking a step back this year, it is hard to see his ERA inflating by nearly a run and a half, especially from a guy who has never had an ERA above 3.97 in his career. RHP Jake Odorizzi In a very similar way to Lynn, Jake Odorizzi put up an ERA in 2017 that was a fair amount lower than his underlying numbers suggested. A couple factors that lead to this were the spike in his walk rate, which was nearly a walk per nine higher than his career average, and the increase in his HR/FB%, which rose from his 9.9% career average prior to 2017, up to 15.5% in 2017. If Odorizzi can bring these numbers back to his career norms, he should have no problem maintaining his numbers from last season. RHP Ervin Santana Ervin Santana got off to a great start last season, posting a 1.75 ERA through May. However, over the last four months of the season, Santana had an ERA over four. Given Santana’s age and track record, it can be expected that we will see more of the latter from Santana in 2018. The big question mark for Santana entering this season will be his ability to come back from the injury to his pitching hand. RHP Kyle Gibson Kyle Gibson is hoping to build off a strong end to 2017, where he posted a 2.92 ERA over his final 8 starts of the season. While this could be looked at as a sign of optimism that Gibson has turned a corner, the truth is Gibson benefited from facing weak offenses in those starts, as not one of his 8 opponents ranked higher than 19th in runs scored. RHP Phil Hughes Phil Hughes is viewed at by many as a thorn in the side of the Twins pitching staff. His inability to stay healthy, along with poor performance when he is healthy, have provided a real weak spot for the Twins over the last couple of seasons. Unfortunately for the Twins, Hughes is still owed $26.4M over the next two seasons, which is about the only thing guaranteeing him a roster spot as we begin 2018. LHP Adalberto Mejia Adalberto Mejia was a fine pitcher for the Twins last season and looked to be a lock for the Twins rotation entering the winter. However, Mejia fell victim to the surprisingly slow offseason, which enabled the Twins to add two new starters to their rotation. With Mejia’s flexibility, given that he could still be optioned, he has become the odd man out in the Twins rotation. Mejia will most likely serve as the first man called up from AAA when the Twins need a spot start throughout the season, or if they need depth due to injuries. LHP Stephen Gonsalves If there is a minor league pitcher that I expect to breakout this year and help the Twins in 2018 it is Stephen Gonsalves. It is hard to remember the last time that the Twins had a pitching prospect with as high of a floor as Gonsalves. Unlike Mejia, whose opportunities with the big club might mostly be dictated on opportunity, Gonsalves has the ability to force the front office to find a spot for him on the MLB roster if he is pitching well enough in Rochester. RHP Fernando Romero The other minor league candidate that has a real shot of forcing his way into the 2018 Twins rotation is Fernando Romero. Romero was lights out throughout the spring and has the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter for the Twins. Romero isn’t as refined of a pitcher as Gonsalves quite yet, but he is quickly closing the gap. RHP Aaron Slegers Much like Mejia, Aaron Slegers is another pitcher who was hurt by the Twins additions of both Odorizzi and Lynn. If it wasn’t for that, Slegers would have had an opportunity to serve a bigger role for the Twins this year than he did in 2017. Though, as it stands, it is looking like Slegers will be pegged into the role of a spot starter again this season. RHP Felix Jorge Felix Jorge made a surprise start for the Twins in 2017, after getting called up from AA. After an unsuccessful outing, he was sent back to Chattanooga, where he continued his strong 2017 for the Lookouts. Jorge will most likely spend much of 2018 in Rochester and may get a spot start or two as a September call-up. LHP Dietrich Enns Acquired as part of the trade that sent Jamie Garcia and cash to the Yankees, Dietrich Enns is a pitcher that has had a lot of success at the minor league level, with a 1.88 ERA over 6 career minor league season. Enns will spend most of the season as part of the deep Rochester pitching staff, but if he is pitching well he will be in consideration to receive a spot start or two throughout the season. RHP Zack Littell As the other piece that the Twins received in the Jamie Garcia trade, Zack Littell is a little bit further away from the bigs than Enns. However, at just 22, and 2/3 of a season at AA under his belt, Littell is a pitcher with definite upside for the Twins. Despite this, Littell still remains a long shot to break through with the Twins before September. RHP Lewis Thorpe Lewis Thorpe was surprised himself when the Twins added him to the 40-man roster last November. It is hard to believe that Thorpe will have much of a shot at helping the big-league team in 2018, as he is still working his way back after missing all of 2015 and 2016 with injuries. Thorpe could see a few relief outings for the Twins in September if he stays healthy.

In addition to the 80 game suspension, Polanco will not be eligible for the postseason if the Twins make it. Gonna need someone to step up in his place.

A few stats I would recommend looking into are Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) on Fangraphs and dWAR on Baseball Reference. DRS is a stat that takes everything a player does defensively into account and then judges them against every other player at that position. The stat uses 0 runs saved as a baseline for an average defender at that position. So for example Joe Mauer had a DRS of 7 in 2017, which means he was worth 7 more runs defensively than the average first baseman last season. Additionally, dWAR is a good stat that you can look into. This stat is built on the same premise as DRS where it takes everything a player does defensively into account and gives it a value. However, dWAR is built on a wins model instead of a runs model. This is pretty easy to convert, as 1 win, is roughly equivalent to 10 runs. Another difference between the two is dWAR is positionally adjusted, which means there is a penalty for playing easy positions like first, while a bonus for playing tough positions like short. Usually if I am comparing two players that play the same position I will use DRS, but if I am looking at two players who play different positions, or guys that play multiple positions I prefer dWAR.