Twins vs Mariners Series Preview

Series at a Glance

*Win Odds from FiveThirtyEight

Minnesota Twins

Through their first five games of the season, the Twins have already hit nine home runs (including four by Brian Dozier). However, not one of these home runs has come with runners on base. While a lot of this is a result of random bad luck, the Twins .308 on-base percentage is not helping matters either. Getting runners on base will be critically important for the Twins this year, as they expect to be a team that hits a lot of home runs as the season continues.

Probable Starting Pitchers

RHP Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson picked up right where he left off in 2017, by throwing six no-hit innings and leading the Twins to their first win of the 2018 campaign. Gibson did struggle with his command in his first start, walking five Oriole batters, but he did an excellent job of giving up only weak contact. Over the course of his start, only three balls that were hit into play had an exit velocity greater than 90 MPH. Gibson made two starts against the Mariners last season, pitching 12 combined innings, with a 5.25 ERA, 8 strikeouts and 3 walks.

RHP Jose Berrios

The Twins picked up their first series win of the year in Baltimore on the back of Jose Berrios’ complete game shutout in the rubber match. So far, that is the only complete game shutout across Major League Baseball this season. Berrios will need more starts like that throughout the season if he wants to be considered a top tier starting pitcher. Against Seattle in 2017, Berrios made just one start on June 15th, when he gave up just two runs over eight innings on the way to a Twins 6-2 victory.

RHP Lance Lynn

Lance Lynn’s Twins debut didn’t go like he would have hoped. Lynn was having obvious struggles locating his fastball, which led to a career high six walks over just four innings pitched. Lynn will be looking to bounce back on Sunday, in what will be his first career start against the Mariners. Hopefully, facing an opponent that is unfamiliar with him will be a welcome relief for Lynn, as opposed to a Pirates team which faced him four times last year alone.

Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners will be coming to Minnesota with a big hole in their lineup, as slugger Nelson Cruz was placed on the disabled list earlier this week after he suffered a sprained ankle in their series against Cleveland. The Mariners did the Twins a favor by taking two of three in that series behind a dominant start on Opening Day by Felix Hernandez. The Twins will avoid facing King Felix in this series, as he pitched in the final game of the Mariners series against San Francisco on Wednesday.

Probable Starting Pitchers

LHP James Paxton

2017 was a breakout year for James Paxton, whose 2.98 ERA was tied with Luis Severino for the fourth lowest by an AL pitcher with at least 130 innings last season. Paxton’s best pitch is his mid-to-upper 90s fastball, which according to the Fangraphs Pitch Value metrics was ranked as the fourth-best fastball by a starting pitcher last season. Paxton features a deceptive left-handed delivery, where he drops the ball behind his back and then comes through with an over-the-top delivery. In his lone start against the Twins last season, Paxton went just five innings, giving up three runs with four strikeouts and issued three walks.

RHP Mike Leake

After pitching his entire career in the NL Central, Mike Leake was traded from St. Louis to Seattle last August. The 30-year-old has been one of the most durable pitchers in baseball since he made his MLB debut in 2010. After throwing 138.1 innings in his rookie season, Leake has not thrown less than 167.2 innings in any season since. There are only four hitters on the Twins 25-man roster (Dozier, Mauer, Rosario and Escobar) who have faced Leake. All of those at-bats came in 2015, back when Leake was still a member of the Cincinnati Reds. Overall, they did well against him, going 5 for 9 with a home run.

LHP Marco Gonzales

As was Leake, Marco Gonzales was traded from St. Louis to Seattle during the 2017 season. Gonzales was considered by many as the Cardinals top pitching prospect in 2015, and made his MLB debut that season, throwing just 2.2 innings. Gonzales then missed all of 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but fought his way back to the big leagues in 2017. However, he struggled in limited time with both the Cardinals and Mariners, putting up a 6.08 ERA over 40 innings pitched.

Players to Watch

Robinson Cano, 2B

Now in the fifth year of his ten-year contract with Seattle, Robinson Cano has done a good job of living up to his contract. Through the first four years, Cano has averaged 4.1 fWAR and is off to a hot start again this year. Though he has been passed by the likes of Jose Altuve and Brian Dozier as the best second basemen in baseball, Cano still remains one of the best middle-infielders in the game.

Kyle Seager, 3B

Kyle Seager is undoubtedly one of the most underrated players in major league baseball. Since the start of the 2012 season, Seager’s 25.9 fWAR ranks 14th in all of baseball. Part of the secret to Seager’s success is his remarkable consistency. In every year since that 2012 season Seager has come to the plate at least 650 times, hit at least 20 home runs and had an fWAR over 3.5.

Dee Gordon, CF

Older brother of Twins prospect Nick Gordon, Dee was part of the Miami Marlins fire sale that sent him to Seattle. Even though Gordon has been a career second baseman, the Mariners still saw a fit for him in their outfield. Gordon surely has the speed to handle center field, but only time will tell if that is enough to make up for his lack of experience there. The Twins will need to be cognizant of Gordon when he is on the base paths, as he can change the game with his speed.

Bullpen Comparison

Rule 5 draft pick Tyler Kinley has yet to make his debut with the Twins. With the Twins having a lot of bullpen depth and plenty of days off early in the season, Molitor appears to be waiting for the right opportunity to give Kinley an opportunity.

The Twins bullpen struggled with command in the first game of the Pirates series, giving up 5 walks over 4 innings. However, in game two they bounced back, walking just one in 4.2 shutout innings. Pressly, Reed, Rogers and Hildenberger have gotten off to great starts, as not one of them has given up a run yet this season.

The Mariners have a very middle-of-the road bullpen. They don’t feature any shut-down relief pitchers, but they also don’t have much apparent weakness either. Seattle is the fourth ball club that veteran righty Juan Nicasio has pitched for since the start of the 2017 season. He is hoping to establish himself as the Mariners’ setup man this year. Edwin Diaz became the Mariners’ closer halfway through his rookie campaign in 2016 and has had a fair amount of success in that role since, finishing fifth in the American League with 34 saves last year.

Zone Charts courtesy of baseballsavant.com