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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Trading an outfielder when you have four outfielders on the current roster and two breakout outfielders in AA does not qualify as "throwing in the towel". That's called "smart management". Use a surplus to fill a need. Most of us liked Span and wish he was still on the team but at the end of the day, he was the most expendable player with a high enough value to get what the Twins wanted in return.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I've never understood the theory that something which everyone says is inaccurate in small samples is suddenly accurate if you pile enough of those inaccurate small samples on top of each other. That seems to me like saying "I know 1 + 1 doesn't equal 3, but if I add 1 + 1 = 3 enough times, I'm sure it will be correct." A large sample size doesn't get accurate by adding together a bunch of inaccurate small samples. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers Roll a six-sided dice once and you may get a six. Terribly inaccurate if you're trying to average a dice roll. Roll that same die 10,000 times and that average moves to 3.5. The roll of six was not representative of a typical dice roll but it still counts. Other times, you'll counter it with a roll of one if you repeat the process enough times. At the end of the day, you'll end up where you expect to be: 3.5. An accurate representation of an "average" dice roll. For your "1+1=3" comparison to work, you have to assume that all methods of recording defensive metrics are wrong. If that's the case, so be it... I'm not going to argue that point with you because it would take days and math I don't care to calculate. But if you believe them to be *generally* accurate, then the Law of Large Numbers applies.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    No, it's definitely too early to write them off entirely but the Royals should be a shining example of why burning down the franchise and rebuilding with prospects can be a mistake. The Royals did nothing wrong; they drafted smartly, traded smartly, and put together a stellar farm system... One of the best we've seen in baseball in two decades. And what has that gotten them? So far, a whole lot of nothing. If a team can draft that well and build a minor league system that strong and still accomplish nothing at the Major League level, why should the Twins follow suit?
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Much better than it did 24 hours ago. The Twins have a franchise player in Mauer, something KC hasn't had since, what, George Brett? They have Perkins, Plouffe, Parmelee, and Diamond for several more years. The Twins have three good pitching prospects in the minors, one of which should contribute this season. They have a handful of guys who may or may not work out (Hendriks, Wimmers, the college pitchers in the last draft class, etc.). They have a boatload of outfield prospects coming through the system. They have Sano. All in all, they look pretty good going into 2014. Will that turn into a winning franchise? Hard to say but at least they're not positioned with only minor league talent.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Make a shirt with the silhouette of Nate Poole hauling in a catch on his tip-toes while being pushed out of the endzone, with the letters "NO!!!!" plastered across the front. I'll buy 50. I'm a Packers fan and that's back when I actually cared about football. I laughed for hours watching that play over and over again.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    It would probably help the rebuild. With Span gone and Morneau one foot out the door, the Twins are going to have a lot of payroll flexibility. To get a guy like Jackson, Sanchez, or Greinke, it's going to take at least four years. That puts the contract through 2016 at the very least. That's smack in the middle of when the team should expect a productive Gibson, Hicks, Arcia, etc. to be on the team.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Gibson went from A+ to AA to AAA in his debut season. Hendriks, a raw pitcher with virtually no pro ball experience, went from Low A to AAA in two seasons. You may want to rethink your timeline.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I meant that he'll be in AA at some point in the season, not that he'd start there. I'd wager a start in Ft Myers as well.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Barring any setbacks and expecting a standard progression, Meyer will be in AA this season. So you expect him to pitch 1 1/2 seasons in Rochester?
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Can't tell if serious.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    No, but I've thought about looking into it, if only for my own sanity.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I set you up for that, Dave. I'm only disappointed that it took you so long to respond.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    If true, you have to like this move. The market on Denard was unfortunately weak (and for no good reason, really). Receiving a fireballer like Meyer is a huge get.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    If the Twins can get anything of value for Revere, I'm of the opinion they should make that deal twice and run back home before the other side can reconsider the trade.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Upton isn't a bad deal by any means. It's not a particularly good deal, either. He could rebound or he could continue to fade into his 30s. He doesn't get on base and that's a HUGE checkmark against him going forward. Like many others, you're drastically underrating Span. The dude plays good defense at a premium position and gets on base 36% of the time. His lowest WAR in the past five years is 1.5 with most seasons bouncing between a 2.5 and 4+ WAR. That's a damned good player, doubly so if you have him locked up for three more seasons at a combined price of $20m (ie. 1 1/2 years of BJ Upton's new contract). Upton has 4000 PAs and a 13.6 WAR. Denard has 2700 PAs and a 16.5 WAR. edit: Interesting that FanGraphs doesn't like Span as much as BBRef while it loooooves Upton. Upton's career WAR is 23 and Span's 16 according to FG. Either way, the two are comparable players (they just go about getting there very differently), only Span is less than half the price.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Throw in Dozier and I think you're on to something.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Joe Mauer at $23m per year doesn't look so bad when teams are giving $15m to 2.5 WAR players.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Welcome to the offseason. At least this isn't BYTO, where any derailed thread had at least a 75% chance of descending into photos of overweight women in Halloween costumes.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    That's great, looking forward to reading about your 2013 season, AJ.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I went and did the research. Searched through every blog post Nick wrote with the words "Brian Duensing" in the post. These were the glowing accolades I found: Oh, wait. Here we go. Here is Nick showering Duensing with accolades. Or maybe not.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    The real question is "Are they in salary spend mode?"
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I've posted with Nick and argued with him for a half decade now. He was one of the first people off the "Duensing as starter" bandwagon way back in 2010 or so. You're grossly misrepresenting his point and you're doing it intentionally. When the Twins were awful, did Nick support Duensing in the rotation? Yeah, we ALL did because the other options were so dreadful that they made the team completely unwatchable. Nick didn't want Duensing in the rotation, he reluctantly admitted that Brian was less awful than the Twins' other choices. It's not a difficult concept to grasp. While nobody wants to take a kick in the nuts or the shin, if you're forced to choose one or the other, you take the kick in the shins because it hurts less. It doesn't mean you walk around town with a "Please kick me in the shins" t-shirt because you love it so much. Christ.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't foresee a 2013 season where pitchers are being held out of the rotation because it's too crowded.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Ooh, I don't know if I agree with that but I'm not in total disagreement, either. Here's how I view it. 1) If signing Baker doesn't prevent the team from picking up two more pitchers, one of them being a legitimate #2 in the rotation, they should have signed Baker without the option. 2) If signing Baker prevents the team from picking up two more pitchers, one of them being a legitimate #2, they were right on passing on Baker and Pavano is a fine third (but NOT second) acquisition for the rotation.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Sewn up, no. Most likely candidate to be added to the rotation, yes.
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