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    TD Top Prospects: #3 Jose Berrios


    Cody Christie

    Twins fans made an immediate connection with Berrios after his emotional video response to being drafted by the club in the 2012 MLB Supplemental First Round. As a teenager, Berrios made fans take notice of him by dominating the rookie leagues while striking out nearly 14.5 batters per nine.

    There were some questions about Berrios after an up and down season with Cedar Rapids in 2013. He put many of those questions to rest in 2014 with a dominating performance across three levels of the Twins system on his way to winning the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year award. His stock rose more than any other prospect in the system last year and he now sits on the cusp of the major leagues.

    Twins Video

    Age: 20 (DOB: 5/27/94)

    2014 Stats (A+, AA, AAA): 12-8, 2.77 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 139.2 IP, 118 H, 38 BB, 140 K

    ETA: 2015

    2014 Ranking: 6

    What’s To Like

    Berrios is only 20-years old and he’s already pitched at Triple-A (even if it was only one start). His work ethic might be one of the best in the Twins organization as he has let fans glimpse into his off-season routine through his social media accounts. His personality is infectious and he should be able to make the big leagues based solely on his work ethic and talent.

    His fastball explodes out of his small frame and he can hit as high as 97 mph on the radar gun but usually settles in at 93-96 mph. To complement his fastball, he has a very good change-up that follows the same motion as his fastball. Last season he was able to make improvements with all of his pitches including, in part, increasing the movement. He’s also had plenty of exposure on the national stage by pitching for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic and starting last year’s Futures Game at Target Field.

    What’s Left To Work On

    One of the biggest knocks against Berrios has been his lack of height. At this point in his life, that’s something Twins fans are just going to have to deal with. Because of his lack of height, his fastball can stay on the same plane and he could run into some issues with this in the higher levels of the system. Of things Berrios can control, his secondary pitches could continue to be refined.

    He needs more consistency with his curve ball and that should come with more use as he moves up the ladder. With his change-up, he needs to continue to keep it down in the zone so better hitters aren’t able to make solid contact. If he can make improvements to his secondary pitches, he should be able to continue to miss bats. In the past, he’s used his fastball up in the zone to strike out batters. Over the next couple years he might have to start using it down in the zone to avoid giving up fly balls that can turn into home runs.

    What’s Next

    In 2014, it seemed likely for Berrios to pitch the entire season at Fort Myers but he dominated the Florida State League. He pitched only 40.2 innings at Double-A so that seems like the most likely starting spot for him in 2015. If he continues to pitch as well as last year, he’ll be on his way to Rochester with the expectation of him making his big league debut in the second half of 2015.

    Some experts question whether Berrios will end up in the bullpen or continue to be a starter. After last year’s performance and this off-season’s workout regimen, the Twins are going to give him every opportunity to stay in a starting role. Minnesota had plenty of success with another 6’0” starting pitcher named Johan Santana and fans can only hope Berrios will be close to that good.


    Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!

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    Marek Houston

    Cedar Rapids Kernels - A+, SS
    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    'I'm always a little confused by conversations about a "#1" pitcher. How are we defining a #1? It seems like a lot of the reports that place Berrios' ceiling as a #2-#3 act like a #1 pitcher is a true ace, one of the top 10 pitchers in MLB or something. That doesn't seem right to me.'

     

    In my opinion, while some may think there are 30 #1 pitchers (one for each team) I don't think many people look at it that way.  Some teams have, in quality, more than one #1 pitcher. Some teams don't have any. I'd probably say there's maybe 15-20 in MLB that can truly be called an Ace.   

    'I'm always a little confused by conversations about a "#1" pitcher. How are we defining a #1? It seems like a lot of the reports that place Berrios' ceiling as a #2-#3 act like a #1 pitcher is a true ace, one of the top 10 pitchers in MLB or something. That doesn't seem right to me.'

     

    In my opinion, while some may think there are 30 #1 pitchers (one for each team) I don't think many people look at it that way.  Some teams have, in quality, more than one #1 pitcher. Some teams don't have any. I'd probably say there's maybe 15-20 in MLB that can truly be called an Ace.   

     

    You can read all kinds of opinions on how #1, #2, #3, #4, and #5 starters are defined (Kiley talks about this on fangraphs)

     

    But typically, I think you can say there are maybe 10 true "Aces" per season (this is greater than a #1). If you go by Kiley's scale, this would be guys with a >6.0 WAR. There were 6 such starters last season.

     

    There's probably a few more #1's than that, but not by much. If we classify them as >4 WAR, you come up with 9 pitchers in that range last year.

     

    Then you can probably double that total number of "aces and #1's" for #2's and #3's, which gives us about 30 names. Again, Kiley's scale classifies these as >2.5 WAR, and this gives 31 pitchers from last season.

     

    Then you have a boatload of #4's and #5's.

     

    The "league average" pitcher is what I'd typically describe as a #4 pitcher, or as an example from the Twins last year, Kyle Gibson (though he actually qualifies for a #3 in the exercise above, with exactly 2.5 WAR).

    * Probably, yes.

     

    ** Absolutely health was #1. Lower pitch limits were set. I would think they would want him to be efficient with those fewer pitches. I'm pretty sure they've always had issues with his control and want him to walk fewer people.

    **(a) Honest question, do you have any reports saying his control issues were related to that new 3 finger changeup he introduced last April? The reports early on last year were that he was really liking it. I was hoping it would be the "breakthrough" they were calling it.

     

    *** Personal opinion at this point. I think you may weight their ceilings higher than I. But, they are extremely close in my eyes too. I'm pretty excited to see how things work out this year (who isn't?). 

     

    I only base the third pitch situation on the few reports and my own personal observations. In the game I saw, he missed most frequently (on a percentage basis) with the change, as it was all over the place.  Perhaps it was a lack of confidence on throwing it for a strike, perhaps he hasn't yet perfected the grip, motion and/or release, but it clearly was still a work in progress.  The good news is that when it was working it was coming to the batter at around 74-77 MPH, a full 20 MPH less than his usual FB.  It will be devastating once he masters it.  The FB did sail or tail on him at times, but he quickly made adjustments in the following inning.  

     

    The other thing I noticed was the big pitch count innings came against primarily a RH heavy lineup.  Not that the RH hitters were doing much damage, it was just that, along with some occasional wildness, they were seemingly able to foul off pitch after pitch before Meyer could put them away.  Meyer's career splits indicate he does well overall against RHers- low OPS, lots of weakly hit fly balls and more ground balls, but his K rate is about 25% less than versus LHers.  I don't exactly know the reason from just watching him throw once, but you would think that eventually that slider, with a more effective third pitch will help to lower his pitch count problems versus righties.




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