Who Says No? Trevor Plouffe Edition

As Thanksgiving approaches, Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe has to be quite thankful. In the last week, two third baseman have signed contracts for at least $95 million. Kyle Seager got $100 million to buy out all three arbitration years and four years of free agency. Pablo Sandoval left the Giants for Beantown, and $95 million.

Seager was coming off of a season in which he played in his first All-Star game. He is arbitration-eligible for the first time this year. Sandoval was a free agent, having won three World Series rings in San Francisco and playing terrifically in this Fall Classic. Plouffe is in his second of four arbitration seasons and had a very solid season, his best yet. Below are two ways to look at and compare the numbers of the three third basemen, 2014 stats and a three-year (2012-14) glimpse.

2014 Statistical Comparison

• Trevor Plouffe (age 28) - .258/.328/.423 (.751), 110 OPS+, 40-2B, 14-HR, 80 RBI
  
• Kyle Seager (age 26) - .268/.334/.454 (.788), 127 OPS+, 27-2B, 25-HR, 96 RBI
  
• Pablo Sandoval (age 27) - .279/.324/.415 (.739), 111 OPS+, 26-2B, 16-HR, 73 RBI
  

Seager clearly had the best year, and Sandoval and Plouffe basically had the same year. Now let’s look at the three-year numbers for the three players:

• Trevor Plouffe – .249/.314/.422 (.736), 103 OPS+, 81-2B, 52-HR, 187 RBI
  
• Kyle Seager – .262/.329/.434 (.764), 118 OPS+, 94-2B, 67-HR, 251 RBI
  
• Pablo Sandoval – .280/.335/.424 (.759), 116 OPS+, 78-2B, 42-HR, 215 RBI
  

Again, the Kyle Seager contract isn’t looking so bad anymore, is it? Although he might be lesser-known in Seattle, he has been good for three years and was very good as a 26-year-old in 2014. Sandoval and Plouffe were very similar in 2014, but Sandoval certainly has more of a track record and more consistency in recent years.

So, before anyone puts (or thinks I am putting) Trevor Plouffe in the same category as Sandoval and Seager, just don’t. He’s not that, though he’s not far behind. Third base is no longer the power position that it was five years ago. In fact, second base is more of an offensive position in the league now than third base, or at least it has more star-caliber players. However, the two third baseman being signed certainly makes relevant the question of whether the Twins should lock up Plouffe for an extended period.

Of course, the proverbial elephant in the proverbial room comes in the form of Miguel Sano. One of baseball’s top prospects, the third baseman missed all of 2014 following Tommy John surgery. Sano will be up at some point, whether it’s in 2015 or early in 2016. I have little doubt that he can play third base. He has the quickness and has a very strong arm (even after Tommy John). The question is, would Trevor Plouffe or Miguel Sano switch positions? Which one would be better in left field at that time? Those are all questions for later, but when it comes to an extension for Plouffe, it does factor into the equation. So does the fact that statistically Trevor Plouffe turned into a very good defensive third baseman in 2014.

So, if Trevor Plouffe were to put up just his 2014 numbers for the next few years, what could he make? Here are some estimates:

• 2015 (age 29): 2^nd year arbitration-eligible, Plouffe would likely jump to about $4-5 million.
  
• 2016 (age 30): 3^rd year arbitration-eligible, Plouffe would likely jump to $8-10 million.
  
• 2017 (age 31): 4^th year arbitration-eligible, Plouffe would likely jump to $12-13 million.
  
• 2018 (age 32): Free Agent
  

Those estimates are again assuming that he just puts up similar numbers to what he did in 2014. Of course, if he continues to improve, those numbers could go up some. The other side is if he gets hurt or declines, he could be a trade or non-tender candidate. What happens if he moves to left field? Would that affect these numbers? That’s what makes these long-term contracts risky for both sides.

This paragraph is the same as yesterday and obviously would go into every decision: I included the season and age just because those are likely part of the discussion and part of the equation and thought-process for such decisions as well. Other factors that come into play include the character of the player, some intangibles, and how will that player handle the security? That’s a big one. Will he sit back and quit working after signing the guaranteed contract, or will he use the security to really push himself to greatness? There’s no way to know, but those thoughts have to run through the collective mind of a front office.

WHO WOULD SAY NO?

So, what I’ve done is put together a contract offer for the Twins front office and for Trevor Plouffe and his agent to consider (hypothetically). My question today for the Twins Daily audience is, Who Says No?

• 2015: $5 million.
  
• 2016: $8 million
  
• 2017: $10 million
  
• 2018: $12 million
  
• 2019: $13 million option with a $1 million buyout.
  
• 4 year, $36 million contract with a $13 million option to get through his age 33 season.
  

So, the question is there for discussion… Who says No? Or do they both say Yes?