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    Twins Finalize Opening Day Roster


    Seth Stohs

    Following Monday afternoon's game in Bradenton, the Twins announced their 26-man Opening Day roster. Find out who will be in Milwaukee on Thursday.

    Image courtesy of Jasen Vinlove, USA Today

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    The Twins announced that outfielder Brent Rooker has been optioned to the alternate site. In addition, RHP Derek Law and LHP Brandon Waddell have been re-assigned to minor league camp. RHP Edwar Colina has been placed on the 10-Day Injured List.

    That means that Kyle Garlick makes the Opening Day roster over Rooker. He is likely to platoon with Jake Cave, and maybe Luis Arraez, in left field.

    Rooker had a strong showing in big league camp, showing he was fully recovered from his forearm surgery last September. However, Garlick, who the Twins claimed from Atlanta in February, led the team in spring training home runs.

    Derek Law and Brandon Waddell both had tremendous spring trainings for the Twins and are likely the first bullpen arms that could be promoted if needed. Instead, Caleb Thielbar and Cody Stashak are on the Opening Day roster. Yes, being on the 40-man roster is a big deal.

    Here is the full Twins Opening Day roster:

    Catchers: Mitch Garver, Ryan Jeffers, Willians Astudillo

    Infielders: Luis Arraez, Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Andrelton Simmons

    Outfielders: Byron Buxton, Jake Cave, Kyle Garlick, Max Kepler

    DH: Nelson Cruz

    Pitchers: Jorge Alcala, Jose Berrios, Alex Colome, Randy Dobnak, Tyler Duffey, J.A. Happ, Kenta Maeda, Michael Pineda, Hansel Robles, Taylor Rogers, Matt Shoemaker, Cody Stashak and Caleb Thielbar.

    In addition, the team announced that Rooker, Waddell, Luke Farrell, JT Riddle and Tomas Telis will also head to Milwaukee as part of the taxi squad.

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    Does a platoon of Garlick and Cave in LF sound like a part of a championship team?  If not Kiriloff, if not Rooker, then Larnach.  Upside and youth.  Now if Kepler does not produce, if Buxton gets injured the OF suddenly looks subpar.  The BP has some very shaky vets.  Lets hope that everyone finds their stroke, rises to the challenges and all ST worries disappear. 

     

    For their (admittedly short) careers, Garlick has an .845 OPS against lefties, and Cave has an .803 OPS against righties--call it an .820 OPS on average.  Since the beginning of 2019, amongst all outfielders with more than 400 PA's, that places 40th, ahead of such "name" players as Mike Tauchman, Whit Merrifield, Eddie Rosario, and Yasiel Puig.  It's also only .008 behind the Dodger's third best outfielder, A.J. Pollock, so give your worry about the Twins outfield above, let me ask you this--how would you characterize a Dodger's outfield where Pollock falls off an age-related cliff, and Betts gets hurt?

     

    Astudillo has a career average of .318. Source is MLB.com.

     

    That is his career Spring Training batting average (you can tell because it shows him as having AB's with ATL in 2016, and with the Twins in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.

     

    In reality, his career BA is .294, with a .747 OPS and a 97 wRC+.  Astudillo certainly is not a bad hitter, but he's not a particularly good one either.  That is perfectly acceptable for a guy who is 12th or 13th in your lineup, and can play 3-5 positions without being a total embarrassment, especially when he is beloved by the rest of the team and one of the positions he can not be an embarrassment at is catcher.

    The last time we saw him in that type of role he posted a .678 OPS, and despite the contact skills he's never really hit for a high average either. He plays multiple defensive positions at a below average level, he doesn't draw walks to get on base, and he doesn't hit for extra bases. If he's playing 1/3 of the time then I think it actually does do some harm.

    I think as the 26th player, Astudillo provides nice depth and he might have an occasional role as a pinch hitter when making contact is a high priority. I would hope the Turtle gets less than a start per week and on that topic one doesn’t want to have a younger player with upside in that role.

     

    The last time we saw him in that type of role he posted a .678 OPS, and despite the contact skills he's never really hit for a high average either. He plays multiple defensive positions at a below average level, he doesn't draw walks to get on base, and he doesn't hit for extra bases. If he's playing 1/3 of the time then I think it actually does do some harm. 

     

    By your description, it sounds like he is just like every other last-guy-on-the-roster player. He is on the roster for his versatility and his attitude, not because he's a frontline starter. If he plays regularly, it's because the starters are having trouble, which would not bode well for the team's chances. Conversely, his butt being on the bench does not hurt him or the team -- he is not a player who is gong to develop into a hall of famer if he gets more playing time.

     

    This all adds up; sounds like the Twins made the right move. He fits the criteria for the role.

     

    Exactly!

     

    The guys mentioned struggled in 2020 and thus the Twins need more bats on balls and Yes - I feel right now that Garlick provides a better chance to put the ball in play than Rooker.  

     

    Also - from all accounts - Garlick's defense is better as well.

     

    That said I hope Garlick's stay (and eventually Cave's) is short because Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach force their way onto the roster very soon.

    Garlick's awful 2020 isn't a concern though? He's also posted a K rate north of 30% in each major league stint so I'm not sure how he alleviates any perceived contact issues. Basically he doesn't seem like a viable insurance policy if you're truly worried about Kepler, Buxton, and Cave. 

     

     

     

    By your description, it sounds like he is just like every other last-guy-on-the-roster player. He is on the roster for his versatility and his attitude, not because he's a frontline starter. If he plays regularly, it's because the starters are having trouble, which would not bode well for the team's chances. Conversely, his butt being on the bench does not hurt him or the team -- he is not a player who is gong to develop into a hall of famer if he gets more playing time.

     

    This all adds up; sounds like the Twins made the right move. He fits the criteria for the role.

    Crowing about versatility is meaningless without context. Astudillo is a below average defender at every position he plays. The Twins have 4 OFers and a super sub in Arraez. Each position on the team has a defensive backup that is more capable than Astudillo. His "versatility," isn't valuable given the current roster construction. Offensively he has zero plate discipline, doesn't hit for power, and despite his ability to put the ball in play it doesn't find a hole often enough to compensate for what the rest of his offensive game lacks. There are better ways to fill the 26th spot.

    Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference tell the same story about Astudillo. This story is that he is an average defender -- to be clear, some Twins starters are not as good at defense as Astudillo -- and in two of his three years he was an above average hitter.

     

    I appreciate that you have a strong opinion on Astudillo, but we have to be clear here that this is just your opinion. Data tells another story.




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