Twins Fantasy Fix (4/3): Buy on Pablo Lopez

Welcome to the first regular-season edition of Twins Fantasy Fix! Now that games are underway, I'll look at which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid. 

If you're a fantasy baseball player looking for an edge, we'll have you covered from an insider Twins perspective.

Twins Fantasy Player Trends

Stock Rising: Pablo Lopez
ESPN ownership: 94%

The Twins obviously paid a hefty price to acquire Lopez in the offseason, shipping away fan-favorite Luis Arraez, but the righty looked great in his first Minnesota start. Lopez tossed 5 1/3 scoreless innings on Opening Day, working around two hits and three walks while striking out eight. He has the look of a staff ace, and assuming Rocco Baldelli allows him to work a bit deeper into games moving forward, Lopez could really take off from a fantasy perspective. He’s perhaps not a top-tier fantasy starting pitcher, but Lopez can definitely help your team, especially if the newfound sweeper continues to generate whiffs. Honorable mention to Joey Gallo, who hit two home runs on Sunday.

Stock Falling: Max Kepler
ESPN ownership: 5%

My pick of Kepler as a fantasy sleeper this year is off to a rough start. Kepler hit leadoff in the first three games of the season but went 0-for-13 with a walk. It remains to be seen how long Baldelli might stick with Kepler atop the order. At this rate, the Twins will have to move him down, which would decrease his fantasy value due to fewer run-scoring and run-producing opportunities, and just fewer at-bats in general. The eventual return of Alex Kirilloff could squeeze Kepler out of the lineup altogether if the Twins decide to move Gallo to right field most days. Kepler should have a little bit of a cushion, but he’ll want to get going soon to maintain his grip on regular playing time. Fantasy players don’t need him in their lineups at the moment.

Also, a quick mention here of Edouard Julien, who’s off to a 1-for-12 start with the Saints, though that one hit is a home run. Twins fans have been clamoring for Julien, especially with Jorge Polanco out, but it may be worth pumping the brakes a bit for the moment. Fantasy managers should keep an eye on Julien, though it doesn’t look like he’ll be making an immediate impact this season.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes

• 3 Games at Miami (Johnny Cueto, Sergio Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo)
• 3 Games vs Houston (Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown)

Lopez could line up pretty well in his second start of the season, as he’s set to face the Miami Marlins on the road Wednesday. Not only is it a potential “revenge game,” it’s also coming at a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Lopez may be a good target in daily contests, though it’s worth noting that he’ll be opposed by tough lefty Jesus Luzardo, so the Twins may not offer a ton of run support.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers 

Tyler Mahle is set for two starts in the week: Monday against the Marlins and Sunday against Houston. The Miami matchup looks inviting, but Mahle is a risky play against a strong Astros lineup. He’s only faced Jose Abreu, Alex Bregman and Mauricio Dubon among current Houston players, however, so perhaps unfamiliarity could work in Mahle’s favor.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch

For Minnesota hitters, it may be a tough week. In addition to facing Luzardo, they’ll also see reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, along with Houston’s Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy. Monday’s matchup with Johnny Cueto looks like one of the most favorable spots of the week, as the veteran lacks overpowering stuff. Byron Buxton is off to a great start after the first weekend and he’s also 3-for-8 in his career against Cueto with a triple and a home run. His price should continue to rise in daily formats, but he’s worth a ticket while he’s hot, and his first home run should come soon.

Houston youngster Hunter Brown faces the Twins on Sunday, and while he’s inexperienced, he has shown elite ability so far during his time in the majors. He’s never faced the Twins, though, and if you think the 24-year-old might struggle on the road against a new opponent, you could consider targeting a few Minnesota hitters. It’s worth noting that the righty Brown has actually struggled more with right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters so far in his young career (.310 batting average allowed to righties, .136 to lefties). That could mean decent days for Buxton, Carlos Correa and Jose Miranda if you want to roll out a Twins stack.

Is your fantasy season off to a good start? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus share your early thoughts on how the Twins look from a fantasy perspective.