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    Troubled Youth


    Nick Nelson

    Anyone with a level head understands that patience is warranted with the likes of Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios, two young men who have barely surpassed the legal drinking age.

    Still, it's tough not to be alarmed by the degree of the introductory struggles being faced by not just those two, but several others among the vaunted wave of young talent that has been anointed as the primary impetus of a turnaround for this presently dismal franchise.

    Image courtesy of Jerome Miron, USA Today

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    While the depth and upside on the roster heading into the season positioned the Minnesota Twins as a fringe playoff contender, most fans came in with the understanding that this team remained a work in progress. The postseason was a nice dream, but above all, getting signs of positive progress from the core prospects was imperative.

    Instead, things have played out brutally for most of the organization's key young players, many of whom look nowhere near ready to compete at the major-league level despite their demonstrable mastery of the minors. This serves to exacerbate the miserable results on the field, leaving Twins fans with painfully little to feel good about.

    It was reasonable to expect further growing pains from Buxton as he continued to adapt to the MLB learning curve. But given his immense talent and his history of catching on quickly, few would have imagined that his play would plummet. From 2015 to 2016, Buxton's OPS dropped from 576 to 497 and his K-rate rose from 34 percent to an outrageous 49 percent.

    Hitting in the majors is hard. But it is exceedingly rare to see a player of any age or experience level flounder to the extent that Buxton has. In total he has whiffed in 36.4 percent of his 187 MLB plate appearances; since the year 2000, only four non-pitchers have struck out at a higher rate in 150-plus plate appearances and none had a lower walk rate than Buxton's 4.3 percent.

    As for Berrios, he had not been pitching well through three big-league starts, entering Monday's game with a 6.28 ERA and 989 opponents' OPS, but in Detroit he unraveled in a way that hasn't often been seen. The righty faced nine hitters and recorded only two outs, allowing a homer, a double, a single and four walks. According to Mike Berardino, Berrios became just the seventh starter in Twins history to allow seven earned runs while lasting less than one inning.

    To be clear, there's no reason to lose hope for either player. Both are very young and neither has accrued a whole lot of experience at Triple-A. But their initial exposure to the majors has been just about as bad as it possibly could be. And this is made more difficult to stomach by the ugly results from nearly every other top prospect entering the fray.

    Eddie Rosario became the latest victim on Thursday, when he received a long-deserved demotion to Triple-A following a terrible first six weeks. Like Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas before him, Rosario imploded following an impressive rookie showing, and showed little interest in adjusting his often out-of-control approach. John Ryan Murphy, acquired during the offseason as a hopeful heir at catcher, was shipped out earlier this month with an unspeakable 219 OPS. Alex Meyer has been a disaster in all four of his major-league appearances. Jorge Polanco has impressed in limited playing time but for some reason can't get on the field with any regularity. Miguel Sano has taken a sizable step backward after a great rookie year.

    The 10-30 record is horrendous, no doubt. But the more deeply disturbing development of this 2016 season is just how far away this young core collectively looks from turning a corner. Terry Ryan put his full faith into these kids and what he's received is a bitter reality check.

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    I don't think this list tells us much.  You are comparing DeLoreans and Lamborghinis here.  Yeah they're both "sports cars" but Lamborghini had been in business for 20 years before DeLorean even came along.  On top of that the Countach went 0-60 in 4 seconds while the DeLorean took more than 8 seconds.  Similarly the Twins are in a very different part of their win cycle than most of the teams above.  Does anyone think Santana, Vargas or Arcia would have been called up from AA if this was 2010, the Twins were in contention and they had Span, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome and JJ Hardy playing?  Also, half your list are overall top 20 prospects while the Twins only have 3 players that were concensus top 100 players.

     

    Perhaps you're right the Twins did rush some of their prospects, though Buxton and Sano were brought up right on time compared to your list, but you'd have to compare them to other teams at a similar point in their rebuild cycles and to similar level prospects.  Until then this tells us next to nothing.

     

    If anyone is interested here is a Google Sheets Doc where I started comparing them to the Astros and Cubs.  If anyone wants to continue this work farther (including finding lower tiered prospects and other rebuilding teams) please feel free.

     

    So you're saying the Twins sold cocaine to help finance their failing car company? 

     

    Irrelevant automotive comparisons aside, the point of my post was just to explore how the top position players in the league last year (some were top prospects, some were not) were handled in regards to time at AAA and compare that to the most recent batch of Twins young position players. I chose the top 15 players in fWAR because I wanted a sample of players that had successfully transitioned to the big leagues (while every player is unique, there has to be common criteria that determines success) and included their speed and defense contributions (vs OPS or wOBA) so I could get a look across different positions and not end up with a group of 1st basemen and corner outfielders.

     

    The common take aways- 1. Very few players that had little or no time in AAA and hadn't had a full season at AA and had an OPS above .950. 

    2. Nearly all players (exception of Davis and Cain) had a BB/K above .80 at both AA and AAA.

    3. Only Davis had contact issues in the minors.

    4. None of the Twins hitters had a BB/K above .80

    5. Only Kepler and Arcia had an OPS at AA above .950

    6. Many of the Twins players had contact issues in the minors.

     

    In the sample you'll find a mix of teams that are both good and bad when the player was called up. A major league club's current state of affairs shouldn't affect when a player is called up, that is bad player development policy. It puts a young player at a disadvantage when trying to make the most difficult adjustment of his career, even moreso for a hitter with questionable contact skills. And yes, teams do rush players before they're ready- something the Twins appear to be guilty of lately. 

     

    But Just to humor you, here are the same players, with the team's record at the end of the season in which their first significant callup occurred (excluding cups of coffee min PA=100):

     

    1. Harper- WSN 2012, 98-64

    2. Trout- LAA 2012, 89-73

    3. Donaldson- OAK 2012, 94-68

    4. Goldschmidt- ARI 2011, 94-68

    5. Votto- Cin 2008, 74-88 (72-90 in 2007)

    6. Machado- BAL 2012, 93-69

    7. Cespedes- N/A

    8. Pollock- ARI 2013, 81-81 

    9. Cain- MIL 2010, 77-85

    10. Bryant- CHC 2015, 97-65

    11. Heyward- ATL 2010, 91-71

    12. McCutchen- PIT 2009, 62-99

    13. Posey- SF 2010, 92-70

    14. Davis- TEX 2008, 79-83

    15. Kiermaier- TB 2014, 77-85

     

    Again, another interesting result: The players with the least amount of time in AAA and AA all were on teams with at least 89 or more wins (with the usual exception suspect of Chris Davis). It appears to me that clubs with playoff aspirations are more likely to call up a young position prospect early. Meanwhile, Votto and McCutchen played on the worst teams their first year and both had at least a full season in AAA. This essentially disproves your theory that the players with a lot of time in the high minors because their orgs could afford to wait and/or had a quality player blocking them. When a player deserves to be called up- a club will find a spot for them. I'm sure Pirates and Reds fans were clamoring to see a young Votto and McCutchen called up. 

     

    And again, this is counter to what the Twins have done lately. They have called up their supposed core of the next winning era far too early, despite not being a serious contender. This smacks of desperation by the front office and/or ownership and is ultimately detrimental to the young prospects. 

    Edited by d-mac

     

    So you're saying the Twins sold cocaine to help finance their failing car company? 

     

    Irrelevant automotive comparisons aside, the point of my post was just to explore how the top position players in the league last year (some were top prospects, some were not) were handled in regards to time at AAA and compare that to the most recent batch of Twins young position players. I chose the top 15 players in fWAR because I wanted a sample of players that had successfully transitioned to the big leagues (while every player is unique, there has to be common criteria that determines success) and included their speed and defense contributions (vs OPS or wOBA) so I could get a look across different positions and not end up with a group of 1st basemen and corner outfielders.

     

    The common take aways- 1. Very few players that had little or no time in AAA and hadn't had a full season at AA and had an OPS above .950. 

    2. Nearly all players (exception of Davis and Cain) had a BB/K above .80 at both AA and AAA.

    3. Only Davis had contact issues in the minors.

    4. None of the Twins hitters had a BB/K above .80

    5. Only Kepler and Arcia had an OPS at AA above .950

    6. Many of the Twins players had contact issues in the minors.

     

    In the sample you'll find a mix of teams that are both good and bad when the player was called up. A major league club's current state of affairs shouldn't affect when a player is called up, that is bad player development policy. It puts a young player at a disadvantage when trying to make the most difficult adjustment of his career, even moreso for a hitter with questionable contact skills. And yes, teams do rush players before they're ready- something the Twins appear to be guilty of lately. 

     

    But Just to humor you, here are the same players, with the team's record at the end of the season in which their first significant callup occurred (excluding cups of coffee min PA=100):

     

    1. Harper- WSN 2012, 98-64

    2. Trout- LAA 2012, 89-73

    3. Donaldson- OAK 2012, 94-68

    4. Goldschmidt- ARI 2011, 94-68

    5. Votto- Cin 2008, 74-88 (72-90 in 2007)

    6. Machado- BAL 2012, 93-69

    7. Cespedes- N/A

    8. Pollock- ARI 2013, 81-81 

    9. Cain- MIL 2010, 77-85

    10. Bryant- CHC 2015, 97-65

    11. Heyward- ATL 2010, 91-71

    12. McCutchen- PIT 2009, 62-99

    13. Posey- SF 2010, 92-70

    14. Davis- TEX 2008, 79-83

    15. Kiermaier- TB 2014, 77-85

     

    Again, another interesting result: The players with the least amount of time in AAA and AA all were on teams with at least 89 or more wins (with the usual exception suspect of Chris Davis). It appears to me that clubs with playoff aspirations are more likely to call up a young position prospect early. Meanwhile, Votto and McCutchen played on the worst teams their first year and both had at least a full season in AAA. This essentially disproves your theory that the players with a lot of time in the high minors because their orgs could afford to wait and/or had a quality player blocking them. When a player deserves to be called up- a club will find a spot for them. I'm sure Pirates and Reds fans were clamoring to see a young Votto and McCutchen called up. 

     

    And again, this is counter to what the Twins have done lately. They have called up their supposed core of the next winning era far too early, despite not being a serious contender. This smacks of desperation by the front office and/or ownership and is ultimately detrimental to the young prospects. 

    You seem to be doubling down here.  I'm not saying your idea doesn't have merit.  You could very possibly be right that the Twins did rush good, but not great prospects like Arcia, Santana, Rosario, etc....  

     

    My point is the list you chose does not represent the reality of where the Twins currently are at, nor does it represent the quality of the prospect the Twins have (excluding Buxton and Sano).  In addition no solid conclusions can be drawn by looking at just 15 players (especially when those are the best 15 players in the league).  

     

    So again, I'm not criticizing your idea.  I just think we need more data from teams that are in the position the Twins currently find themselves in.  In an effort to find more of that data I gathered another 10ish players from the Astros and Cubs as examples.

     

    In an effort to put us back on track here I think we need to differentiate by prospect level.  Great prospects like Sano, Buxton, Lindor, Correia, Mauer, Harper, Hayward, etc... are treated differently than the Arcia, Rosario, etc... which in turn are treated differently than the marginal guys like Vargas, Santana etc...  At least that is my contention.  




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