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    Grading Recent Trade Deadlines for the Minnesota Twins


    Cody Christie

    The Twins have taken different approaches to recent trade deadlines, and reviewing the front office’s plans might help us understand the team’s 2024 deadline path.

    Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

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    Every baseball fan base wants their team to make a splash at the trade deadline by making moves viewed as going "all in" for a World Series run. Can the club add a front-line starting pitcher to anchor a rotation? Is there a way to acquire a dominant late-inning bullpen arm? Or can they find a potent bat to insert into the middle of the lineup? Unfortunately, only one team walks away a winner at the end of October, and baseball’s playoffs can be a bit of a crapshoot. So, what have Derek Falvey and Thad Levine done at recent trade deadlines when the team has been in contention?

    2023 Trade Deadline: The Twins had a quiet trade deadline last season with a strategy to rely on internal players to fit the team’s needs. Minnesota’s lone move last year was to trade Jorge López for Dylan Floro in what was considered a change-of-scenery trade for both bullpen arms. Minnesota relied on the returns of Royce Lewis, Brock Stewart, and Chris Paddack to bolster multiple parts of the roster. Minnesota tested the waters on some more prominent trade deadline names, but the cost was too high, and the team decided to stand pat. 
    Additions: Floro
    Subtractions: López 
    Grade: C. There were moves that could have better prepared the team for playoff success. 

    2022 Trade Deadline: Minnesota Twins fans will have a tough time forgetting the 2022 trade deadline, but it was this front office being as aggressive as possible. On the day of the trade deadline, the Twins made four deals to bring in starting pitcher Tyler Mahle, relievers Jorge López and Michael Fulmer, and backup catcher Sandy León. It cost the Twins eight prospects, including some prospects who have already started to provide big-league value. It didn’t work out, with the Twins finishing six games below .500 and the Mahle and López deals aging poorly. 
    Additions: Mahle, López, Fulmer, León
    Subtractions: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer, Steve Hajjar, Cade Povich, Yennier Cano, Juan Rojas, Juan Nunez, Sawyer Gipson-Long, Ian Hamilton
    Grade: F. These moves didn’t help the Twins to win in 2022 and hurt the team’s long-term outlook. 

     

    2020 Trade Deadline: The 2020 trade deadline was pushed back to the end of August because of the shortened season. Minnesota sat five games above .500 and in third place in the AL Central. During that season, the playoffs were expanded, so the team was still a lock to make the playoffs. Falvey and Levine decided against making any additions, which was warranted because of the strange nature of that season. 
    Grade: N/A. Adding a new player who must travel and quarantine before joining the group seems like a mess. 

     

    2019 Trade Deadline: The Bomba Squad was making waves prior to the trade deadline, so the front office wanted to supplement a strong offensive lineup. Sergio Romo was a perfect addition to the team as he helped bolster the bullpen. In 27 games, he posted a 3.18 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. The front office liked him so much that they re-signed him for the 2020 season. Sam Dyson was the complete opposite of Romo. He pitched poorly after the deal, with a 7.15 ERA in 11 appearances. It was later revealed that he had been dealing with a shoulder injury since earlier in the season. He was shut down in September and had off-season surgery. Eventually, MLB suspended him for allegedly abusing his girlfriend. 
    Additions: Romo, Vallimont, Dyson
    Subtractions: Lewin Diaz, Jaylin Davis, Perlander Berroa, Kai-Wei Tang
    Grade: C. The Romo trade was an A, and the Dyson trade was an F. 

    Overall, the Romo trade is the lone deal that worked out in favor of the club. Mahle and López were aggressive acquisitions because the front office believed in the roster and wanted to push their chips to the middle. Unfortunately, both players pitched poorly with the Twins and didn’t help the club make an extended playoff run. Other moves have been inconsequential. The trade deadline can push a contending team over the top, but the Twins’ front office grades poorly when making deadline trades. 

     


    Will the Twins payroll crunch force the front office to be creative at the trade deadline? Will they make a significant move? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion

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    2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    Steer has been playing out of position. OAA is literally the worst defensive metric you can find without 2-3 years of consistent play time. It's a wild metric like catcher framing.

    No, it's not early.

    Steer has no position because he's been an objectively bad defender everywhere he's played other than 1B - whoop-de-do. That's just a fact. And a foolish thing to say about OAA while you're citing UZR/150 because there's the same amount of data on Steer for UZR & OAA and UZR specifically mentions that you shouldn't make conclusions on less than 3 years of data. I'd love to see what sample size you're citing to say he's "acceptable in the infield." He's got many more infield innings and grades out awful there too. 

    image.png.0ac27da4c7bd1e3974b384c083d058ab.png

    Ask anyone who seriously writes about baseball analytics what they think of UZR.

    You can think that but the reality is that Steer and CES could easily be 0 WAR or lower players in the next couple of years. 




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