The Hunt For An Ace Starter

Minnesota has one starting pitcher who can credibly be placed in the same category as the four mentioned above, and in many ways it feels like a stretch to do so.

Sure, Ervin Santana had some core numbers in 2017 that were on par with the league's top tier – namely, a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go along with 16 wins – but for various reasons, he just doesn't quite measure up.

There's the track record. To his credit, Santana enjoyed a career year at age 34, but in 2,170 previous MLB innings he had a 4.09 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

There are the peripheral numbers. Santana was among the league's most homer-prone starters this season, with walk and strikeout rates that were closer to average than elite. The success was heavily aided by a career-low .247 BABIP. His 4.77 xFIP suggests the performance was not nearly as good as the results, and that we shouldn't expect the same going forward.

And then there is the wear and tear. Santana's durability is to be admired – he has made 30-plus starts in each of the past seven seasons (excepting his suspension-shortened 2015). But all those innings take a toll. Erv threw 100-plus pitches in 17 starts this year, and threw 37% sliders overall. He'll turn 35 in December. There hasn't yet been a drop-off in pitch velocity or quality, but few arms can escape the ravages of time and attrition forever.

For all these reasons, Santana looks like a poor bet to be the No. 1 starter that the Twins need in 2017 if they're aiming for a championship.

So where can they find this most coveted of assets? If he's coming from within the organization, it'll still probably take at least a couple more years. So let's explore a few avenues for realistically adding an ace-caliber starter from the outside.

FREE AGENCY

There are three pitchers set to be on the open market who could slot above Santana in the Twins rotation: Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Yu Darvish. All three have the attributes to be a rotation-fronter for a true contender, and each has more or less filled that role within the past few years.

Signing Arrieta, Lynn or Darvish will also require more than double the $54 million that Terry Ryan committed to Santana in 2014 when making him the highest-paid free agent in franchise history. So in a way, it's a little hard to envision.

Or is it? There's a lot of payroll coming off the books over the next few years.

In the 2018 Offseason Handbook (coming next week, make sure to preorder and get yours early!) we'll give you the low-down on these three free agents and 18 more, as well as a breakdown of payroll flexibility and how they all might fit financially.

TRADES

Last winter, in the ultimately fruitless Brian Dozier trade talks, the Twins seemingly targeted the right kinds of arms in a loaded Dodgers system. While they probably won't revisit discussions with LA, this increasingly impressive scouting department undoubtedly has some other names from other organizations on the "Want" list.

Are they willing to pony up? High-end pitchers, or prospects with that kind of potential, don't come cheap. Minnesota would surely be looking for a younger guy with multiple years of control, and that only ups the ante.

The name that pops here is Chris Archer. One of the best pitchers in the game, he keeps getting mentioned as a candidate to be moved, though it's not clear why; he's 29 and signed very reasonably through 2021 with team options. I can't even imagine the package it would take to get him.

Since established aces are exceedingly tough to pry away, the Twins would more likely need to identify someone who is on the verge of reaching that level. A tall task indeed.

I'll just throw a name out there: Dinelson Lamet, of the Padres. The 25-year-old right-hander looked solid in his MLB debut this summer, averaging well over a strikeout per inning and featuring a 95 MPH heater. San Diego, perpetually one of the worst offensive teams in the majors, would LOVE to add some promising young bats.

Are there other names out there that catch people's attention in the same way? Share in the comments.

INTERNATIONAL

We may see an unprecedented scenario play out over the next few months. By all accounts, Japanese superstar Shohei Otani fully intends to sign with an MLB team and head to the States. He's been called "Japan's Babe Ruth." Otani touches triple-digits and piles up whiffs with a nasty repertoire. Oh, and he's a good enough hitter that some legitimately believe he could DH on top of pitching.

Two-way player or not, there's a decent chance the 23-year-old quickly becomes one of the top starters in the majors. And cost will not really be a factor in acquiring him.

Per the new CBA, foreign players under the age of 25 are considered international amateurs and are thus subject to the bonus pool system. Otani could only sign a minor-league deal with a bonus of a few million tops.

Many teams have already spent a majority of their allotted amounts. It bears noting that Minnesota is one of eight clubs that could offer a bonus of more than $1 million, though the Rangers and Yankees are also on that list, and probably more attractive destinations.

I just don't see how the Twins make this happen. In fact, I really can't see Otani coming over this winter and forfeiting the $100M+ he'd be eligible to earn by waiting two more years. But, he says he's doing it, so we'll have to wait and see what happens.

It's going to be an interesting offseason on all fronts. And with the World Series now officially underway, it's suddenly almost upon us.