Looking at When Odorizzi Should Pitch in the Playoffs

Game One

The good: Jake Odorizzi has simply been the Twins best starting pitcher since the beginning of August. If you want the hot hand going in to pitch game one without considering other statistics like his stats in New York, then Jake is probably your guy. Here is each starter since August.

Jake Odorizzi (50.1 IP)

3.04 ERA

2.16 FIP

4.06 K/BB

Jose Berrios (58.2 IP)

5.83 ERA

4.44 FIP

2.95 K/BB

Randy Dobnak (19.1 IP)

1.86 ERA

2.80 FIP

3.20 K/BB

Martin Perez (54.1 IP)

6.63 ERA

5.61 FIP

1.81 K/BB

Odorizzi has also accumulated 2.1 WAR since the start of August and that is good for sixth in baseball during that time period. He has definitely been the Twins best starter of late and maybe that will get him the game one start.

The bad: Over his career (2012-2019), Jake Odorizzi has not been good in Yankee Stadium. In 46.2 innings in New York, Odorizzi has a 5.40 ERA, 5.82 FIP, and a 2.3 HR/9. The worst HR/9 from anyone in baseball this season is 1.9 from Matthew Boyd so a 0.4 jump from Odorizzi in New York is definitely not good. Plus you may not have noticed but the Yankees hit the second most home runs of all time this season so the matchup with Odorizzi isn’t exactly appealing for the Twins.

Game Two

The good: There isn’t much reasoning to starting him in game two, but at least this would mean you get your top two pitchers in the first two games despite the stadium statistics. To counter the statistics on the road or at home against the Yankees, he actually reversed the curve this season. When he faced the Yankees at home this year he went four innings, giving up nine hits and 10 earned runs and when he pitched in New York he went six shutout innings. Maybe he exorcised some New York City demons this year, and deserves a start there.

The bad: If the Twins plan on letting him get a start in one of the first two games, it should be in game one so he can at least pitch again in game five if need be. For me personally, if he isn’t going to be the game one pitcher and the Twins want to go with Jose Berrios, then push Odorizzi to game three at home. It may all depend on the results of game one, but I doubt that is how Baldelli will set up his rotation. Let Dobnak take game two.

Game Three

The good: Odorizzi has been slightly better at home this season with a 3.42 ERA compared to a 3.62 road ERA. Also, when he has faced the Yankees away from New York he has 52.2 IP, a 4.10 ERA, 4.23 FIP, and 1.4 HR/9 in his career which is a full home run lower than when he is in New York (stupid right field porch). Jake Odorizzi is a fly ball pitcher who allowed the sixth most fly balls (44.3%) in baseball this season so Target Field suits him better than the little league stadium in New York.

The bad: If you wait until game three to pitch Odorizzi, then you will definitely only get him for one game in the series and you risk being down 2-0 in the series because you waited on pitching one of your better pitchers. Personally I would take that risk and wait for game three where you can maximize his potential for a good game. Hoping for Berrios or Dobnak to pitch well enough to take a game in New York shouldn’t be too much to ask.

What do you think? What should the rotation look like? Leave a comment below and discuss.