Here Is What War Projections Say About the Twins and White Sox

The offseason has not exactly been satisfying or encouraging for Twins fans. While they did re-sign Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Sergio Romo, the only additions have been Alex Avila and Tyler Clippard. When compared to the White Sox it is easy to see why fans (I'm looking at you, dad) are frustrated.

White Sox offseason additions:

• Dallas Keuchel: 3 years/$55 million
  
• Gio Gonzalez: 1 year/$5 million
  
• Yasmani Grandal: 4 years/$73 million
  
• Edwin Encarnacion: 1 year/$12 million
  
• Nomar Mazara: Acquired from Texas
  

This comes with re-signing first baseman Jose Abreu to a 3 year/$50 million contract earlier in the offseason. So the White Sox have made additions while the Twins have yet to really make their “big move” we are hoping for. What does projected fWAR say abou the two teams in 2020?

White Sox vs Twins projected fWAR in 2020

Position players: Twins (25.4 fWAR), White Sox (23.2)

Starting pitching: Twins (10.3), White Sox (10.7)

Bullpen: Twins (3.7), White Sox (2.2)

Total: Twins (39.4 fWAR), White Sox (36.1 fWAR)

So the projections basically say the White Sox are right there with the Twins and they have become a legitimate threat in 2020. There are two reasons I would take the projections lightly and not overthink anything.

First, the Twins had a total fWAR of 54.9 last season. The projections expect them to lose 20 wins, basically. Second, the Twins will add more pieces to their team, whether it’s Josh Donaldson, and/or trading for a starting pitcher or two. The Twins aren’t done and they are still projected more wins than Chicago. For an excellent analysis on the WAR for each team last season, check out this

Chicago will be relying on the same formula the Twins used to win 101 games last season. Add impact veterans via free agency and have their young core step up in a big way. This includes their No. 1 prospect Luis Robert and their No. 2 prospect Michael Kopech, both of whom are expected to have a big impact in 2020. They will also need repeat performances from Tim Anderson who is due for a load of regression and Yoan Moncada after he finished 15th in position player fWAR at 5.7.

They basically won 72 games last year (69 pythag) with career years from Anderson, Moncada, and Giolito that could all see some regression. Expecting them to make the jump to the Twins level is unlikely. It’s not impossible, but they are nowhere close to being the “favorites” to win the central. An 18-win jump to get them to 90 wins is where I would put their ceiling for 2020 and honestly that should be the Twins floor.

The White Sox have had a great offseason and are likely the most improved team. The Twins have not made any real impact additions to this point and are still projected to be better despite losing 20 wins according to WAR projections. Minnesota will add a couple more players to make them even better, and the White Sox are likely close to being finished. What do you think about the White Sox? Can they overtake the Twins in 2020? Let me know what you think below.

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