Do Any Teams Value Max Kepler More Than the Twins?

Max Kepler stands alone as the longest-tenured Twins player following Jorge Polanco’s departure from the organization. Both players signed as 16-year-olds on the international market back in 2009. They grew up and spent half their lives in the Twins organization. Kepler’s time in the organization is also nearing an end with one more year of team control, but rumors have swirled about him being traded for multiple seasons. 

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported that the Mariners inquired about adding Kepler to the Polanco trade. Seattle would have needed to add more to the trade to even out the value. However, the Kepler side of the deal didn’t gain steam, and the teams ended up agreeing to terms for the players in the Polanco deal. Because of his expiring contract, Kepler’s name will be tied to trade rumors until the trade deadline passes later this summer. It becomes a complicated situation with the value he can still provide the Twins, but that amount is shrinking the longer they hold on to him.  

Kepler’s Value to the Twins
The Twins front office has highly regarded Kepler when teams have inquired about him via trade. He’s coming off one of his best offensive seasons as he hit .260/.332/.484 (.816) with 22 doubles, two triples, and 24 home runs. His overall numbers don’t tell the story of his 2023 campaign. At the All-Star Break, Kepler was hitting around .200 with a .688 OPS, and there were conversations about whether a younger player should replace him. His second half was tremendous as he morphed into one of Minnesota’s best offensive performers with a .926 OPS. Those totals were better than his numbers in his breakout 2019 season. 

Looking at Minnesota’s roster, there is a need for Kepler, mainly if he can produce like he did in the second half. Currently, Kepler projects to be the team’s regular right fielder, with Matt Wallner getting regular time in left field. The Twins’ other corner outfield options include Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, and Trevor Larnach. Castro is coming off a season where he posted a 106 OPS+ and gave the team 2.6 WAR. Gordon and Larnach suffered through disappointing seasons, so it’s hard for the team to hand them a starting job. If the Twins shifted to one of these players, there would be a downgrade in performance compared to Kepler. 

Kepler’s Value to Other Teams
Kepler has one year remaining of team control for a team-friendly $10 million. According to FanGraphs, Kepler has provided the Twins with more than $10 million in value in every full season since 2016. Last year, he was worth over $20 million, the second-highest total of his career. Baseball Trade Values attempts to quantify the surplus value associated with players who could be potentially traded. Kepler’s surplus value comes in at $8 million, slightly lower than Polanco’s $9.4 million, but he has an extra year of team control. 

If the Twins traded Kepler, there are free agent outfielders that might be a better fit on the Twins roster because they are right-handed. There has been a need on the Twins roster for a power-hitting outfielder for multiple seasons, but the club hasn’t found a fit. Jorge Soler, Adam Duval, and Tommy Pham are all still available and would be solid right-handed hitters who can play in the outfield. Soler hit 36 home runs for the Marlins last season and posted a 1.080 OPS against left-handed pitching. Duval combined for a 119 OPS+ and played all three outfield positions. Pham was a playoff hero for the Diamondbacks and had trade rumors connecting him to the Twins in the past. 

Kepler can continue to provide the Twins with value this season, but the roster is hardly complete at this juncture of the offseason. It would make sense to trade Kepler if Minnesota spends money on a right-handed bat.

Will the Twins still consider trading Kepler? How much value does he have in a trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.