Did the Twins Find Value in Bundy and Archer?

Coming out of the lockout and going into Spring Training, it was always apparent that Minnesota needed to add frontline starting pitching. Jose Berrios was traded near the peak of his value, and finding an heir to the top of the rotation was a must. With Kenta Maeda set to be shelved for much of 2022, alternative options had to be explored.

Ultimately Sonny Gray was the ace acquired for Minnesota’s starting rotation, but value plays were made with Bundy and Archer. Both had seen previous success, but neither seemed to be much more than an opportunity to capture lightning in a bottle. Where are we at now?

Dylan Bundy
After posting a 6.06 ERA with the Los Angeles Angels last season, Minnesota was certainly hoping to sign the Bundy that tallied a 3.29 ERA in 11 starts during the 2020 season. Now owning a 4.76 ERA with a 4.28 FIP, Bundy hasn’t been the best version of himself, but he also has avoided consistently being the worst starter in baseball that he has flashed at times.

Bundy’s strikeout numbers have dropped substantially this season, all the way down to a 6.9 K/9, but he’s given up less walks and homers than he ever before has. His 3.86 xERA also suggests that he’s been better than the counting stats may indicate. Some credit is owed to Bundy reinventing himself while losing velocity. His 89 mph fastball is lower than it’s ever been, but he’s generated a career best chase rate and still gets whiffs 10% of the time.

Having been worth 1.0 fWAR in 2022, Fangraphs puts Bundy’s value at $8.2 million. Signed for $5 million this season, Bundy won’t have his $11 million option for 2023 picked up, but he’s given the Twins exactly what they bargained for in 2022.

Chris Archer
Signed to a $3.5 million deal for 2022, Minnesota took a last minute look at Archer despite him having pitched under 20 innings since 2019. Archer has tried to battle back from injury, most notably undergoing surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Shoulder issues are typically more altering to pitcher trajectories than arm issues, and that’s been part of what has held Archer back.

His 4.15 ERA across 20 starts is backed by a 4.42 FIP. He’s nowhere near the pitcher he once was, striking out just 7.5 per nine and walking a career worst 4.5 per nine. Allowed to go just two times through the lineup each start, Archer has basically been a tightrope walker. Working around traffic and trying not to give in too greatly, he’s consistently put the Twins bullpen in a situation where they’ll need to work overtime.

Archer’s velocity is actually up a bit from where it was last season but he’s not getting whiffs or chases on his stuff. Needing to nibble on the edges, there’s consistently been situations where the walks pile up in bunches. At 0.6 fWAR though, Fangraphs suggests Minnesota has gotten what they paid for as he’s generated $4.7 million of value.

Like Bundy, Archer won’t have his 2023 option picked up either, but both have been about as expected. There’s been more to like with the former first round pick, but neither are something that will be missed when they wind up elsewhere. In a vacuum, both arms could have made sense in Minnesota, but pairing either with a bad bullpen leaves opportunity for exposure on a weekly basis. It’s hard to go the route of bargain bin shopping in the rotation when you do the same thing in relief.