Can Byron Buxton Finish His Career Like Adrián Beltré?

Late last month, Twins fans were rightly focused on Joe Mauer, as he narrowly made the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Joining Mauer in the Class of 2024 is another first-ballot selection, Adrián Beltré. No baseball player follows a boilerplate path to being enshrined in Cooperstown, but Beltré’s was unique because he wasn’t headed to the Hall of Fame as he reached his 30s. Instead, a late-career surge put him among the best third basemen in baseball history. 

Manny Randhawa wrote at MLB.com about seven players who could see a late-career surge, like Beltré, to make the Hall of Fame. One current Twins player, Carlos Correa, made his list, because he is entering his age-29 season and has already built a strong résumé. I recently wrote about Correa and what he’d need to do to get back on track for the Hall of Fame. Another player on the Twins turned 30 this winter, and a return to greatness for him could match what Adrian Beltré accomplished later in his career.

Age Comparison
Beltré through age-29 season: .271/.327/.459 (107 OPS+); 242 HR, 0 All-Star Appearances, 2 Gold Gloves
Buxton through age-29 season: .239/.300/.468 (106 OPS+), 115 HR, 1 All-Star Appearance, 1 Gold Glove
Beltré debuted with the Dodgers as a 19-year-old, after being ranked as one of baseball’s best prospects. His early career was unremarkable, before a breakout season in 2004 at age 25, his final year before reaching free agency. In that campaign, he hit .334/.388/.629 with 48 home runs, 32 doubles, and 121 RBI. He finished second for the NL MVP. Following the season, he signed a five-year deal to join the Mariners, where he struggled to replicate his MVP-caliber season. Through his age-29 season, he had been able to stay on the field consistently, but there were inconsistencies in his performance. 

Buxton debuted at age 21, after being touted as baseball’s top prospect because of his five-tool potential. Injuries and an inconsistent offensive approach marred his 20s. Early in his career, coaches tried to get him to be a prototypical leadoff hitter, slapping or bunting the ball and using his speed to reach base. This approach was incorrect, and the Twins eventually figured that out. Buxton had a four-season stretch from 2019-2022 wherein he posted a 136 OPS+ but averaged 70 games per season. He showcased short bursts of his full potential, but injuries haven’t allowed him to play at a Hall of Fame level.

Peaking In His 30s
Beltré went on a stretch in his 30s that few others will match. For nine seasons, he hit .307/.358/.514, with a 130 OPS+, averaging 32 doubles and 25 home runs per season. He accomplished this while being selected to four All-Star Games, being a perennial top-10 finisher for the MVP, and playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at third base. Beltré was a workhorse throughout his career, with only one season (2017) where he played fewer than 100 games. Given how well he was still playing, he probably could have continued playing into his 40s, but Beltré decided to call it a career. 

Buxton turned 30 in December, and there is little chance of him landing in Cooperstown, but he has potential for a late-career surge. Injuries have been the biggest hindrance, and he seems to be in a good place heading into the 2024 season. At TwinsFest, he declared, “I’m back,” when asked about a return to center field. Minnesota plans to have Buxton start around 80 games in center, with his remaining time coming at DH or used as rest days. He has played over 92 games in one big-league season, so this is an aggressive plan to get the most from one of the team’s stars.

There have been few players in Twins history with the talent Buxton possesses. He might be the best athlete to wear a Twins uniform. Since the team moved to Minnesota, only five players have a better at-bat per home run rate than Buxton. He ranks higher than Bob Allison, Tom Brunansky, and Kent Hrbek. His home run prowess is even more impressive, considering coaches weren't encouraging him to hit for power when he broke into the big leagues. Buxton and his agent added incentives into his contract tied to MVP voting because he can play to that level. Now, it’s time to prove he can play to that level regularly.

Beltré was a unicorn, in that he seemed to get better with age. Buxton has improved during his career, but his inability to stay healthy has kept him from reaching his full potential.

What are realistic expectations for Buxton in his 30s? Can he regularly play in center field? Will he average more than 100 games per season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.