I don’t need to tell you that Pablo López is back on top. He’s won his last four starts and his last five decisions. Over his last 16 starts, he’s 10-2 with a 2.75 ERA, while striking out more than a batter per inning. A couple weeks ago, John Foley detailed several things that have gone differently lately: First, López stopped being quite so unlucky. Second, he made some mechanical adjustments, including shortening up his stride. Presumably because of those adjustments, López’s four-seam fastball ticked up in velocity and gained an inch of rise. López also got much better about throwing the pitch up at or above the top of the zone, where all that ride makes it most effective. Lastly, López started relying on the four-seamer more often. After throwing it roughly 40% of the time in June and July, it was at nearly 47% in August (though that percentage has ticked back down in his last couple of starts).
John is very smart, and he was right to focus on the four-seamer. It’s been López’s bread and butter all season. According to Statcast’s run values, it has been worth 23 runs, making it the second-most valuable pitch in all of baseball (trailing only Cade Smith’s four-seamer). Today, however, I’d like to focus on López’s curveball. He’s throwing it about 10% of the time this season, which ranks fourth among his five pitches, narrowly ahead of his sinker. There’s a good reason for that: According to Stuff+, the pitch has been declining in quality for years now. Here’s how it rated in each season, starting in 2020:
That’s not the trajectory you’re looking for as a pitcher. In 2020, the curve’s 114 mark made it the best-rated pitch in López’s arsenal, but this year’s 84 makes it his worst.
Here's the thing, though: I lied just a little bit about that 84 figure. The pitch did rate an 84 this season, but only through Aug. 12. Over the five starts from Aug. 18 to Sept 10, Stuff+ has the pitch at a fantastic 130. Now, this is a very short sample size — we’re only talking about 42 pitches — but that’s still an enormous jump. In case you’re not familiar with Stuff+, it’s a model that looks at the physical characteristics of a pitch and predicts how well it will perform. So let’s look at how the pitch has changed.
|
Date
|
Curves
|
MPH
|
H-Break
|
V-Break
|
|
Before Aug. 18
|
233
|
82.1
|
6.5"
|
-9.9"
|
|
Since August 16
|
42
|
83.5
|
6.7"
|
-12.3"
|
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